其中，李康现年61岁，从一名普通科员一路做到副主任，然后1996年加入金华信托担任副总、研究所所 长，1999年至2007年担任金信证券董事长、研究所所长，2002年担任金信证券副总，07年担任光大证券 研究所所长，09年加入湘财证券，担任副总、首席经济学家、研究所所长。 任职期间的近些年，湘财证券研究所业务比较鸡肋，2025年中期研究所收入只有348万，23年以前尚有 千万级别。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金石杂谈 1月9日消息，新年以来卖方人事变动不断，尤其知名的头部券商中信建投。此外，湘财证券首席经济学 家李康到龄退休；90后分析师姜涛加盟国金证券，担任副所长、公用环保煤炭行业首席分析师、红利牵 头人。 1月8日，中信建投证券党委委员、执委委员武超则出任机构业务委员会主任，分管机构业务部、研究发 展部、托管部、国际业务部、中信建投（国际），负责中信建投证券机构业务和公司国际业务，兼任中 信建投国际董事长。 值得注意的是，武超则在2025年5月刚刚升职，从一名首席分析师升到了公司高管——执行委员会委 员，负责公司研究所业务（即中信建投研究所所长）。本次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a cross-year rally, with several brokerage firms optimistic about the investment strategies for 2026, particularly focusing on sectors with positive earnings forecasts and improving economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Guangfa Securities anticipates marginal improvement in A-share company earnings, continued positive policy stance, ample market liquidity, and a gradual easing of external disturbances, making the cross-year rally promising [2]. - CITIC Construction Investment believes the current bull market, initiated by policy shifts and liquidity improvements, will continue into 2026, with a focus on fundamental improvements and economic validation [2]. - Huaxi Securities notes that December will be a critical observation period for domestic and international policies, potentially raising market risk appetite and creating opportunities for cross-year positioning [2]. - CICC expects the ongoing upward trend in A-shares since September 24 to persist, with an estimated overall earnings growth of around 4.7% for 2026 [2]. Group 2: Sector Focus - CITIC Construction Investment identifies technology growth as the most logical direction for investment, while cautioning against potential short-term corrections in the tech sector [4]. - Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes that the recent adjustments in the tech growth sector are primarily to digest previous high valuations, suggesting a mid-term bottoming phase [4]. - Zhongjin Company highlights that the global macro environment and trends in innovative industries remain favorable for growth styles, with a balanced market style expected in 2026 [4]. - Guotai Junan suggests that robotics and brokerage stocks may become key focuses leading up to the 2026 Spring Festival, alongside potential trading opportunities in consumption and real estate sectors [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in 2026, predicting a slow bull market with increased difficulty in making profits, necessitating a focus on fundamental improvements and validations [1][2][15]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Outlook**: The A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on technology sectors while being cautious of structural and phase adjustment risks [2][9][15]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for 2026 include new energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military machinery, and computing [3][10][15]. - **Investment Themes**: Key investment themes revolve around the US-China competition, particularly in AI and new energy, with significant advancements in domestic technologies such as large model algorithms and solid-state batteries [13][14][15]. - **IPO Market Dynamics**: The IPO market in 2025 saw a resurgence in new listings, with an average first-day increase of 244.78% and no new stocks experiencing a decline [16][24]. The number of new IPOs increased, particularly on the main board and the North Exchange [16][21]. - **Banking Sector Outlook**: The banking sector is expected to maintain high dividend yields, with credit growth projected at 7-8% and a narrowing of interest margin declines [4][36][39]. The overall provisioning is deemed sufficient to manage potential risks [42][43]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Valuation Levels**: Current valuation levels of major indices are at historical highs, indicating a potential risk of a market peak if short-term gains are too rapid [5][6]. - **Market Phases**: The market is currently in the "economic verification phase," characterized by index fluctuations and slowing growth, with frequent style switches due to earnings realizations in overvalued sectors [6][7]. - **Resource Sector Potential**: If the technology sector adjusts, resource products may become the new focus, benefiting from global monetary easing and supply-demand imbalances [12][15]. - **Non-Interest Income**: The banking sector's non-interest income is expected to continue benefiting from the bond market, although reliance solely on this income is cautioned against [40][41]. - **Asset Quality Concerns**: Despite the overall stability, there are concerns regarding real estate-related risks and the potential exposure of certain loan projects [42][43]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and strategies for the A-share market and specific sectors in 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector indices have experienced declines this week, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Index down by 2.3%, the Sci-Tech 100 Index down by 2.4%, the Sci-Tech 50 Index down by 3.8%, and the Sci-Tech Growth Index down by 3.9%. Despite this, CITIC Securities suggests focusing on sectors with performance elasticity, particularly in AI, new energy, and critical resources [1][3]. Index Performance Summary - The weekly performance of various indices is as follows: - Sci-Tech 50 Index: -3.8% - Sci-Tech 100 Index: -2.4% - Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index: -2.3% - Sci-Tech Growth Index: -3.9% [3] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratios for the indices are: - Sci-Tech 50 Index: 159.6 times - Sci-Tech 100 Index: 214.7 times - Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index: 215.1 times - Sci-Tech Growth Index: 157.2 times [3]. Sector Composition - The Sci-Tech 100 Index consists of 100 stocks from medium-sized companies with good liquidity, focusing on small and medium-sized tech enterprises, with over 80% of its composition in the electronics, pharmaceutical, and computer sectors [5]. - The Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index covers all market securities, focusing on core industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, encompassing all 17 primary industries listed on the Sci-Tech board [5]. - The Sci-Tech Growth Index includes 50 stocks with high growth rates in revenue and net profit, with over 95% of its composition in the electronics, power equipment, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors [5].

Market Overview - Major indices opened higher with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.11%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and ChiNext Index up 0.43% [1] - Key sectors showing gains include fluorine chemical, phosphorus chemical, and precious metals [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4001.79, up 0.11%, with 1183 gainers and 702 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13453.37, up 0.37%, with 1549 gainers and 854 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3221.93, up 0.43%, with 753 gainers and 438 losers [2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying performance elasticity and focusing on structural market trends, particularly in AI and new energy sectors [2] - China Galaxy Securities highlights the ongoing adjustment in the tech sector and suggests focusing on themes like anti-involution and dividends, with a rotation among sectors such as electric grid equipment and lithium batteries [3] - Huatai Securities recommends a "dumbbell" strategy for short-term investments, focusing on low-valuation sectors and potential recovery in dividend-paying stocks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current market consensus indicates that from the perspectives of policy, fundamentals, and capital, technology growth is the most logical direction. However, there is a warning about potential structural or phase-based pullback risks in the technology sector [1] Group 1: Investment Focus - It is recommended to seek performance elasticity and capitalize on structural market trends, with a focus on areas such as AI, new energy, and critical resources [1] - Following the technology bull market, attention should shift to the bull market in resource products, which is expected to emerge as a new main direction in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Resource Products Outlook - The logic behind the optimistic outlook for rising resource product prices includes factors such as global monetary easing, gold price ratios, supply-demand gaps, price trends, and the initiation of domestic inventory replenishment cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its bull market into 2026, with a forecast of a fluctuating upward trend but slower growth, leading investors to focus more on fundamental improvements and economic verification [1] Industry Insights - The technology sector may face structural and phase-based pullback risks, while resource products are likely to emerge as a new main direction for A-shares following the technology theme [1] - The ongoing comprehensive competition between China and the U.S. could significantly impact A-share investments, suggesting a focus on future industries and key resources, particularly in military industry sectors [1] Key Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include: - New energy - Non-ferrous metals - Basic chemicals - Oil and petrochemicals - Non-bank financials - Military industry - Machinery and equipment - Computers [1] Thematic Focus - Thematic areas of interest include: - New materials - Solid-state batteries - Commercial aerospace - Nuclear power - Cross-strait integration [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is expected to continue into 2026, with the index likely to experience a volatile upward trend but with slower growth, leading investors to focus more on fundamental improvements and economic verification [1] Industry Insights - There is a caution regarding structural and phase-based pullback risks in the technology sector, while resource products may emerge as a new main direction for A-shares following the technology theme [1] - The ongoing comprehensive competition between China and the U.S. could significantly impact A-share investments, suggesting a strategic focus on future industries and key resources, particularly in military and defense sectors [1] Key Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include: - New energy - Non-ferrous metals - Basic chemicals - Oil and petrochemicals - Non-bank financials - Military industry - Machinery and equipment - Computers [1] Thematic Focus - Thematic areas of interest include: - New materials - Solid-state batteries - Commercial aerospace - Nuclear power - Cross-strait integration [1]