2026年1月6日，复旦大学经济学院举办了"南土国际金融政策圆桌会第9期"，同时也是"如何看待当前宏 观金融形势系列"的第二场活动。本次圆桌会聚焦"当前贸易顺差问题"，与会学者围绕贸易结构转型、 全球价值链把控以及国内外需失衡等多重因素，系统分析了中国贸易顺差创历史新高的深层原因，并深 入探讨了中国在应对外部保护主义挑战、化解国内内卷式竞争及提升外汇与金融安全稳定性等方面面临 的现实制约及可行战略选择。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲指出，2025年前11个月，中国贸易顺差规模创历史新高，首次突破万亿美元 大关。虽然贸易顺差总量创历史新高，但其占GDP比重在全世界仍属中等水平。同时，顺差增长背后也 伴随着市场结构的深刻调整。芦哲认为，与2018年相比，中国贸易顺差的市场结构已发生深刻变化：美 欧市场占比明显下降，而"一带一路"沿线国家和新兴市场的重要性显著提升。这种多元化的市场布局， 为中国应对外部经贸摩擦提供了更稳健的战略回旋空间。 探究其中的原因，芦哲进一步分析认为，顺差结构的改善根植于国内产业与产品体系的深度升级。随着 加工贸易占比显著下降，技术密集型且具备较强定价权的产品已成为出口支柱。这不仅提升了中国在全 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **Chinese consumer market** and its correlation with the **real estate sector**. The easing of real estate policies has provided short-term boosts to consumption, but subsequent policy rollbacks and adjustments in fiscal spending have led to consumption pressures [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Consumption Trends**: China's total consumption is unlikely to replicate the "roaring twenties" of the past 20 years. The era of wealth creation driven by real estate expansion has ended, and declining birth rates indicate that a luxury bubble economy is not feasible in the long term [1][4][5]. - **Stimulating Consumption**: There is a need for cautious consumption stimulation without expecting large-scale stimulus policies. Adjustments in fiscal spending structures to support low- and middle-income groups, promoting trade-in programs, and encouraging spending on services and experiences are recommended [1][6][9]. - **Economic Transition**: The 14th Five-Year Plan indicates a shift from high-level demand to a focus on risk prevention, transitioning from a real estate bubble to normal housing demand. The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes stabilizing domestic demand and pursuing growth that aligns with potential growth rates [1][7][8]. - **Factors Affecting Consumption**: Key factors contributing to the current weak consumption include asset depreciation, slowing income growth, and the rollback of direct policies. High-leverage cities, particularly first-tier cities, are experiencing more significant declines in consumption compared to lower-tier cities [3][10]. - **Future Consumption Growth**: Over the next few years, consumption in China is expected to shift from rapid expansion to a more rational growth model, influenced by demographic changes, urbanization slowdown, and real estate market adjustments. The government is expected to rely more on wealth effects, income level improvements, and fiscal support rather than large-scale stimulus policies [10][11]. Other Important Insights - **Wealth Creation**: The past two decades saw approximately 300 trillion yuan in wealth created through real estate, lifting urban households from zero to million-level assets. This rapid wealth creation era is now concluded, and future growth will be more moderate [4][5]. - **Policy Channels for Stimulating Consumption**: Key channels include stabilizing or increasing household assets (especially housing prices), promoting income growth through external demand and new industries, and implementing fiscal measures such as subsidies and tax reductions [9][10]. - **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The government acknowledges that current issues are part of a developmental transition and is taking measures to ensure a smooth transition. The expectation is that consumption will stabilize at levels more aligned with potential growth rates rather than experiencing significant fluctuations [10][11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy, focusing on GDP growth, internal and external demand, and government policies impacting economic development [1][2][3][23]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: In Q2, China's GDP grew by 5.2%, with a nominal GDP growth rate slowing to 3.9%, indicating price pressures and declining industrial capacity utilization [1][3]. 2. **Internal Demand Trends**: Both consumption and fixed asset investment are on a downward trend, with June retail sales growth dropping to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, and fixed asset investment growth falling to 2.8% [1][4][5]. 3. **Government Role**: The government plays a crucial role in economic development, with significant investment in equipment and tools, and broad infrastructure growth at 8.9% [1][6]. 4. **External Demand Dynamics**: Despite increased tariffs from the U.S., China's exports maintained high growth, with Q2 export growth reaching 7.5%, attributed to currency fluctuations and export diversion strategies [1][7][8]. 5. **Policy Focus for H2**: The economic outlook for the second half of the year anticipates increased pressure on internal demand, with policy expectations centered on real estate and consumption [1][10][23]. Additional Important Content 1. **Urban Development**: The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized stable development, human-centered policies, and high-quality growth, shifting focus from expansion to improving existing urban areas [1][9]. 2. **Real Estate Investment Issues**: Real estate investment is facing accelerated decline, with slow implementation of related policies and limited new investment in affordable housing [1][11][15][16]. 3. **Consumer Subsidy Impact**: The national subsidy program has seen a temporary halt in some areas due to rapid fund usage, affecting consumer spending in sectors like home appliances [1][17][18]. 4. **U.S. Import Trends**: U.S. import growth is expected to slow down, which may negatively impact China's export performance in the latter half of the year [1][19][20][23]. 5. **Stock and Bond Market Outlook**: The outlook for stocks remains positive for dividend assets, while bond yields are expected to remain low. The dollar index is projected to rebound in Q3, putting pressure on the RMB [1][25]. This summary encapsulates the essential points from the conference call records, highlighting the current economic landscape, government interventions, and future expectations for the Chinese economy.

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3% year-on-year, with a slight slowdown in Q2 to 5.2% compared to 5.4% in Q1, indicating resilience amid global economic disruptions [3][4] - The contribution from consumption, investment, and net exports improved in Q2, with consumption at 52.3%, investment at 24.7%, and net exports at 23%, showing better internal demand coordination [3] - Industrial production accelerated to 6.8% in June, while consumption growth slowed to 4.8%, reflecting short-term disturbances affecting economic trends [3][4] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The valuation of Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceutical sector remains attractive, with leading companies' forward price-to-sales ratios aligning with historical averages, despite being slightly higher than comparable US firms [5] - Domestic capital continues to increase holdings in Hong Kong stocks, while foreign investment in innovative pharmaceuticals is at a low point, indicating potential for future growth [5] - The upcoming commercial insurance innovative drug directory is expected to create a more favorable pricing environment, potentially leading to significant growth in premium and payment scales for innovative drugs [7] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Li Ning's Q2 sales growth was below expectations, with a low single-digit increase in retail revenue, indicating a weakening recovery trend compared to Q1 [8][9] - JD's Q2 losses from its food delivery segment are expected to significantly impact overall profits, with a projected 60% year-on-year decline in profits, although retail performance remains stable [10] - Adjustments to Li Ning's revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 reflect a cautious outlook, with expected revenues revised down by 0.3-5.8% to between 29.0-30.95 billion RMB [9]