Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a key theme in the current economic landscape [1] Research Insights Machinery Equipment - XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) reported a total revenue of CNY 91.66 billion in 2024, a decrease of 1.28% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.2% to CNY 5.976 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 10.92% to CNY 26.815 billion, and net profit rose by 26.37% to CNY 2.022 billion, with a net profit margin of 7.6% [6] Construction Decoration - China Railway (601390.SH) faced a 19% decline in net profit in Q1 2025, attributed to pressure in traditional infrastructure sectors, although overseas orders showed strong growth. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is CNY 28.1 billion, CNY 28.3 billion, and CNY 28.9 billion, respectively [7] Steel - Hunan Steel (000932.SZ) saw a significant improvement in Q1 2025, with net profit increasing by 43.55% to CNY 562 million. The overall profitability of the steel industry is recovering, with a gross profit margin expected to improve [8] Automotive - Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 3.4 billion in Q1 2025, a 15% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 11% to CNY 210 million. The company is well-positioned for growth in the automotive sector [11] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) achieved a revenue of CNY 79.118 billion in Q1 2025, a 10.06% increase, with net profit rising by 15.09% to CNY 5.487 billion. The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory [14] Food and Beverage - Hengshun Vinegar (600305.SH) reported a revenue of CNY 626 million in Q1 2025, a 35.97% increase, with net profit rising by 2.36% to CNY 57 million. The company is focused on strengthening its core business and expanding into new markets [15] Construction Materials - Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ) faced challenges in Q1 2025, with a decline in performance due to reduced demand in new construction areas. The company is optimizing its distribution channels [22] Power - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) reported stable performance in Q1 2025, with revenue projected to be CNY 87.698 billion in 2025, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. Net profit is expected to be CNY 6.25 billion [20] Textile and Apparel - Jian Sheng Group (603558.SH) reported a 2% increase in revenue in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 27%. The company is adjusting its production capacity to match orders [29] Coal - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 90.26 billion in Q1 2025, a decrease of 14.46%, with net profit down by 28.33% to CNY 6.81 billion. The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [43]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21,973 points, down 7 points, with a trading range of only 255 points, indicating a lack of direction in the market[1] - The market turnover was approximately HKD 163.8 billion, the lowest since February 4[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 2.12 billion[1] Sector Performance - Major banks and some consumer brands showed strong performance, with four major banks rising between 0.7% and 2.8%[1] - Stocks like Mixue Group and Pop Mart surged between 4.1% and 12.0%, reaching new highs since their listings[1] - Yao Cai Securities saw a significant increase of 81.9% to HKD 5.55, following Ant Group's acquisition[1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of China's PMI data and the U.S. GDP for Q1 is expected to increase market volatility[1] - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 23.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the real estate market[3] Valuation and Strategy - The current PE ratio of the Hang Seng Index is approximately 9.7 times, suggesting limited downside but requiring effective internal policies for upward movement[2] - Key focus areas for investment include AI infrastructure, consumer demand, and high-dividend state-owned enterprises[2] Coal Market Insights - Yancoal Australia reported a 12.8% year-on-year decline in average coal prices to AUD 157 per ton, influenced by strong market supply[7] - The company’s coal production increased by 8.0% to 9.5 million tons, but sales only rose by 1.2% due to inventory rebuilding[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include production delays, fluctuations in electricity and steel market demand, and geopolitical uncertainties[11]

以下文章来源于资本深潜号 ，作者资本深潜号 资本深潜号 . 专注资本背后的硬核故事 作者孙建楠 编辑袁畅 原标题《私募大佬杨东重磅发声：这个时代，少做把握不大的投资》 4月28日下午，宁泉资产创始人杨东参加一场圆桌论坛，透露了未来权益投资的策略。 杨东是兴业全球基金的首任总经理，培养了董承非、谢治宇、乔迁等明星基金经理。2018年初，他正式"奔私"，通过宁泉资产的平台展开私募投资。 如今，杨东的私募规模达到500亿元，与中国最头部的量化私募机构规模，不相上下。 一直非常低调的杨东，甚少参与公开活动，此次他在这场圆桌论坛上依然"惜字如金"，依然有一些"干货"值得关注。 以下为杨东的发言要点，整理如下，以飨读者。 当前股票是理想选择 我们对"可为"的理解，主要基于其最简单、最基本的意义。在当前众多可投资资产中， 股票投资仍是一个较为理想的选择。 换言之，在中国股市中，投资者若能合理布局，获取比存款、国债、银行理财等更为可观的收益并非难事，这是我们对当前投资环境的基本判断。 世界格局演变是长期核心问题 从短期来看，关税问题及其未来演变对市场的影响不容忽视。此外，为了应对相关冲击，政府有望出台一系列强有力的政策以提振 ...

Core Viewpoint - Current stock asset returns are expected to outperform deposits, government bonds, and wealth management products in the current uncertain environment [1] Investment Opportunities - Stock investment is considered a better choice among available investment assets [1] - Focus on domestic demand as a main theme, particularly in identifying targets that boost domestic demand and policy initiatives [1] Risk Avoidance - Recommendation to avoid low-end and overcapacity export enterprises [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][34] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, highlighting that leading companies are reinforcing market confidence through share buybacks and strategic investments [6][7] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show resilience against external risks, with a focus on consumer recovery and investment opportunities in the snack and dining chains [6][9] Summary by Sections Alcohol Industry - The report indicates that the high-end liquor segment remains strong, with recommendations for companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [6][7] - The report notes that the overall liquor index has shown a slight decline of -0.40%, with specific stocks like Shede Liquor and Shanxi Fenjiu performing positively [6][8] Food Industry - The food index has increased by +0.80%, with top performers including Pinwo Food and Yike Food [6][9] - The report suggests that consumer staples are less affected by external risks, and there is potential for growth in the snack and dining sectors as consumer confidence improves [6][9] Key Company Insights - Kweichow Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue of 170.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [7] - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, reinforcing shareholder confidence [7] - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to see growth driven by its strong brand foundation and strategic market expansion [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 11.4% in Q3 2024, indicating robust growth potential [8] Food Company Performance - Anjiu Foods reported a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.84% [9] - Dongpeng Beverage achieved a revenue of 125.58 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 45.34% [9] - Haitian Flavoring's revenue from soy sauce reached 137.58 billion yuan, with a growth of 8.87% [9] - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 128.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.47% [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][34]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a strong focus on domestic demand, highlighting the resilience of leading companies in the food and beverage sector amidst external uncertainties such as fluctuating tariffs [6][7]. - The report identifies three main investment lines: high-end liquor with robust demand, national expansion of mid-to-high-end liquor, and real estate liquor products positioned for price expansion [6][7]. - The food index showed a positive trend with a cumulative increase of 0.80%, indicating strong performance in the consumer goods sector despite external risks [6][12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index experienced a slight decline of 0.40%, with notable performers including Shede Liquor (+1.51%) and Shanxi Fenjiu (+1.30%) [6]. - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as mid-range brands like Shanxi Fenjiu [6][7]. - Kweichow Moutai aims for a revenue of 170.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 15.9% year-on-year growth [7]. Food Industry - The food sector is characterized by a strong recovery in consumer demand, with a focus on snack foods and the restaurant industry [6][9]. - The report suggests that the snack food sector continues to benefit from channel and product innovations, with companies like Three Squirrels recommended for investment [6][9]. - The restaurant industry is expected to stabilize and show slight recovery, with related sectors such as beer and condiments also recommended for attention [6][9]. Key Company Insights - Kweichow Moutai's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 170.6 billion yuan, with a focus on high-quality development [7]. - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, reinforcing market confidence [7]. - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 128.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.47% [9][10]. Market Trends - The overall food and beverage industry saw a cumulative increase of 0.20% this week, with top gainers including Beiyinmei (+41.43%) and Pinwo Food (+35.23%) [12][15]. - The report notes that the macroeconomic environment remains a concern, but the food and beverage sector is expected to show resilience due to diversified import sources and ongoing consumer recovery policies [6][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand in light of increased tariffs, highlighting the need for policies to support growth in the domestic market [6] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: high-end liquor with strong demand, national expansion of mid-range liquor, and real estate liquor products [6] - The food index showed a cumulative increase of 1.32%, with specific recommendations for snack and restaurant industry investments due to expected recovery [6] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Moutai's 2024 revenue is projected at 174.1 billion yuan, a 15.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 86.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% [6][7] - The report recommends Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao for high-end liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-range liquor, and Yingjia Gongjiu and others for real estate liquor [6] - The liquor index showed a cumulative decline of 0.74% this week, with Moutai's stock down 1.03% [6][7] Food Industry - The food index increased by 1.32%, with top gainers including Yanjinpuzi (+19.64%) and Zunming Co. (+9.66%) [6][12] - The report suggests focusing on the snack sector and the restaurant industry chain, anticipating a slight recovery in the restaurant sector [6] - Recommendations include Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi for snacks, and Yanjing Beer, Haitian Flavoring, and Anjui Foods for the restaurant supply chain [6] Key Company Insights - Guizhou Moutai aims for a revenue growth of about 9% in 2025, with a fixed asset investment of 4.711 billion yuan [7] - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of at least 70% of net profit for 2024-2026, ensuring stable shareholder returns [7] - Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu are also recommended for their strong market positions and growth strategies [7][8] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall food and beverage industry has shown resilience, with many companies meeting performance expectations [6] - The macroeconomic environment remains a concern, but the report highlights opportunities in high-demand sectors [6][9]