2月5日，港股科技板块回调，港股科技ETF（513020）跌超0.8%，连续3日迎资金净流入，回调或可布 局。 国投证券指出，科技与出海是未来3~5年最重要的产业基本面双主线，正在深刻重塑市场盈利格局，并 有望推动盈利在2026~2027年进入新一轮向上周期。其中，"新"的本质是"AI科技向下游走"，行情正从 算力基础设施等阶段，向供需缺口环节过渡，上游关注铜、存储与电力设备，下游关注AI应用、元器 件等。"旧"的本质是"出口出海向中上游走"，传统行业摆脱旧模式拖累，海外业务带来的利润企稳和增 长愈发显著，趋势从下游制造业向工程机械、风电及电力设备、化工、建材、工业金属等中上游延伸。 面向2026年，市场结构将从2025年"新胜于旧"走向"新旧共舞"。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 港股通科技指 ...

Group 1 - As of January 31, 2026, over 3,006 listed companies in A-shares disclosed their performance forecasts for 2025, representing 55.1% of all A-shares, slightly higher than 53.4% in 2024 [10][12] - The forecasted positive performance rate for 2025 is 36.7%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from 2024, while the negative performance rate decreased from 66.2% in 2024 to 63.3% [14][15] - The proportion of companies expecting profit increases has risen significantly, with the share of profit-increasing companies reaching 21.1%, indicating a potential recovery in profit growth [15][18] Group 2 - The performance forecast rates for major indices such as CSI 300, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are around 60%, primarily driven by profit increases, indicating a recovery trend among large and mid-cap companies [18][19] - In contrast, the CSI 1000 index has a positive performance rate of only 37%, with a high proportion of companies still facing losses, reflecting weaker overall profitability [18][19] - The non-bank financial sector shows a high positive performance rate of 88%, with 72% of companies expecting profit increases, while the real estate sector has a low positive performance rate of only 18% [22][24] Group 3 - The analysis of performance changes indicates that AI, overseas exports, anti-involution, and price increases are the core growth drivers for over 40% of high-performing companies [22][24] - The performance of companies benefiting from AI is expanding beyond the tech sector into midstream manufacturing, while more industries are starting to gain from overseas exports [22][24] - The performance of companies in the anti-involution sector is expected to be a key area of focus for 2025, as they show a higher proportion of exceeding performance forecasts [22][24] Group 4 - The distribution of performance growth rates shows a rightward shift in the "U" shape curve, indicating an increase in companies experiencing recovery from difficulties [24][29] - The overall net profit growth rate for A-shares is projected to reach 29.6% year-on-year, with a median growth rate of 12.4%, suggesting a solidifying trend in profitability [29][32] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to maintain high resilience in net profit growth, contrasting with the declines seen in previous years [29][32]

核心结论：面向2026年机构投资者"再均衡"转向正在发生，本质上是从2025年"新胜于旧"走向2026年"新旧共舞"。简而言之：2026年AI新科技要配，但 以顺周期（制造业、周期品）这些"老东西"也要明显增配，这是最重要的再均衡。同时，存在一些重要边际变化使得后续这种再均衡表现其他三个方面： 1、科技内部的再均衡：新"的本质是"AI科技向下游走"，将向第四阶段供需缺口环节逐渐过渡（上游缺口是铜、存储与电力设备；下游缺口是AI应用、 元器件等）；2、出海内部的再均衡："旧"的本质是"出口出海向中上游走"，传统行业摆脱旧模式拖累由海外业务带来的利润企稳和增长愈发显著，从中 下游制造业向中上游制造业延伸（工程机械、风电、化工、建材、工业金属）；3、资源品内部的再均衡：2026年资源品定价中不适应作全年弱美元假 设，可能存在"美元不弱"可能性，重视商品属性回归，金融属性下降，基于供需基本面的资源品涨价品种更值得持续看好。 基于2025年Q4机构持仓观察与季报观点，结构层面AI科技+出海设备+全球定价资源品是机构投资者最明确的共识。事实上，在春节前A股行情中也可以 看到这三个方向大幅领涨。在这个过程中，要深刻意识到： ...

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）当前，A股上市公司2025年业绩披露已经进入密集窗口期，数据显示，仅1月30日一天，就有646家上市公司披露2025年业绩 预告。截至1月31日，A股5400多家上市公司中，已经有近3000家披露了2025年业绩预告。上市企业密集发布"成绩单"，其中"含金量"如何？ 在已披露业绩预告的上市公司中，共有1092家公司业绩预喜，占比为37%。其中，1046家公司归母净利润同比增速下限超过50%，603家同比增速下限超 100%。所谓"同比增速下限"，是指公司在业绩预告中给出的最低增长预期。 具体来看，AI产业趋势的积极影响进一步向产业链扩散：半导体板块全年盈利在低基数背景下实现大幅增长，同比增长超300%。通信板块全年盈利同比增 长超200%，元件板块同比增长约140%，电子板块同比增长近70%。 中国银河证券首席策略分析师 杨超：半导体产业链业绩表现突出，随着人工智能的发展，AI服务器与数据中心建设提速，端侧设备增长拉动了配套芯片需 求。国内关键技术突破加快，龙头企业盈利逐步兑现。 受益于我国制造业优势及出口订单增长等因素，汽车板块预喜比例超50%，全年盈利同比增长约140%，机械设 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw mixed performance last week, with major indices showing more declines than gains, while growth styles dominated, and the average daily trading volume across the market was 17,973 billion [1] - Key sectors that performed well included telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment, while agriculture, media, and automotive sectors lagged behind [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological leadership and boosting domestic demand, marking a critical period for foundational strengthening and comprehensive efforts [2] - Recent macroeconomic events include the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which approved the guidelines for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on advanced manufacturing and quality services [2] - The recent US inflation data showed a lower-than-expected increase, contributing to reduced inflation risk concerns, while China's economic growth in the first three quarters exceeded annual targets but still faces pressures from domestic and external demand [3] Group 3 - Investment strategies suggest focusing on potential beneficiaries of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for market upward movement due to reduced external disturbances and policy expectations [4] - The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations due to changes in trading sentiment and event impacts, but upcoming policy windows may provide good investment opportunities [4] - Long-term outlook remains positive for the stock market, supported by declining risk-free rates, ample liquidity, and improving profit expectations [5] Group 4 - Specific investment themes include focusing on advanced manufacturing, global competitiveness in Chinese manufacturing, and consumption promotion as key areas for structural economic transformation [5] - Emerging technologies and regional economic development strategies are highlighted as core investment themes to watch during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the A-share market, emphasizing the potential for a bullish trend driven by liquidity and policy expectations, with a focus on technology and resource sectors as key investment areas [3][4][6][7]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most brokerages predict that investor sentiment will lean towards risk aversion before the holiday, but will likely shift to a more positive outlook post-holiday as policies and fundamentals become clearer [3][6][7]. - The current market is in the second phase of an upward trend, with liquidity easing and favorable policy expectations driving the market [3][7]. - A significant rebound in the market is anticipated in October, with many sectors showing reduced congestion, allowing for new upward momentum [11][12]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The technology sector remains a favored investment direction, with many brokerages recommending a balanced allocation between new technology and cyclical stocks [5][13]. - Key areas for investment include semiconductor supply chains, chemical industries, and consumer sectors, particularly those benefiting from domestic demand recovery [8][9][10][14]. - The article highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with strong earnings support and growth potential, such as AI, renewable energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [14][15][17]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data suggests that the effects of "anti-involution" policies are becoming evident, which could improve the economic fundamentals and support market recovery [8][9]. - The global economic environment, particularly the easing of high-interest rates in the U.S. and Europe, is expected to bolster demand and investment in various sectors [14][16]. - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are anticipated to provide critical insights and drive market sentiment [11][12].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight view on China, indicating that the A-share market does not show signs of overheating [1] - The sentiment indicator for Chinese retail investors suggests that there is room for further improvement in investor sentiment if economic fundamentals continue to improve [1] - Guotai Junan Securities believes that contrary to market perceptions, a recovery in China's earnings fundamentals may be in the making, with opportunities arising from the recent interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities highlights that the current preventive interest rate cuts could benefit export-oriented companies, which can avoid domestic price pressures while capitalizing on increased demand from overseas markets [4] - The firm anticipates that the realization of fundamental improvements will be a key driver for market upward movement, supported by historical experiences and the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts [4] - Positive factors are emerging in the domestic market, including a reduction in the drag from PPI and CPI tail effects, as well as inventory replenishment behaviors among domestic companies, reminiscent of the experiences from 2006 to 2007 [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with the underperforming banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Strategies - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stop here. They highlight the positive implications of the recent US-China talks and the potential for capital market reforms to accelerate, suggesting that the A/H share indices may reach new highs [2] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market is in the making, with a focus on cyclical opportunities in manufacturing and a shift from technology-driven growth to export-oriented growth as liquidity constraints ease [2] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued consolidation in the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach and suggesting adjustments in sector allocations, particularly reducing exposure to technology and media while increasing positions in real estate and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities expects the A-share market to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the National Day holiday, with a focus on structural balance amid potential profit-taking [4] - China Merchants Securities notes a historical pattern of financing trends around the National Day holiday, suggesting a potential rebound in market sentiment post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes a rotational investment strategy to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified approach across multiple sectors [6][7] - CITIC Securities highlights the clarity in market trading themes following the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery as key drivers [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of structural support from policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four main investment themes in the construction sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with stagnant performance in banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stagnate and is expected to reach new highs, driven by favorable conditions such as a stable short-term risk outlook and potential capital market reforms [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market may be in the making, with opportunities arising from the easing of liquidity constraints and a shift towards cyclical manufacturing sectors like non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals [2] - Zheshang Securities suggests a period of consolidation for the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach to investment and a focus on sectors like hard technology and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities anticipates continued market fluctuations leading up to the National Day holiday, with a tendency for funds to secure profits amid uncertainties [4] - According to China Merchants Securities, historical patterns suggest that financing activities typically contract before the holiday and surge afterward, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial rotation is emphasized by Industrial Securities, advocating for a diversified approach to investment to navigate market volatility [6][7] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the clarity in future market trends following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of sectors like AI and essential materials [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four investment themes in the construction sector, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities suggests that a bull market driven by the recovery of China's profit fundamentals may be emerging, with two main opportunities to focus on: the potential rebound of Hong Kong stocks and a shift in growth investment from technology-driven sectors to export-oriented sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - The "preventive rate cuts" by the Federal Reserve have historically led to a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, with GDP growth reversing downward trends and a slight decrease in unemployment rates [1]. - The Fed has slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025-2027 while lowering unemployment rate predictions for 2026-2027, indicating a more stable economic outlook [1]. Group 2: Impact on Emerging Markets - The impact of U.S. rate cuts on emerging markets occurs through two main channels: alleviating currency depreciation pressures and providing more room for domestic monetary policy [2]. - If the U.S. achieves a "soft landing," emerging markets, particularly net-exporting countries like China, may benefit from increased external demand driven by U.S. capital expenditures [2]. Group 3: Export Opportunities - Historical data shows that export-oriented A-share companies have outperformed the CSI 300 index during previous rate cut cycles, indicating a potential for similar performance in the current cycle [3]. - Guojin Securities has identified 18 sub-industries that may benefit from the current "preventive rate cuts," categorized into three main types: capital goods related to investment, intermediate goods linked to manufacturing recovery, and consumer and pharmaceutical sectors with their own industry trends [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the bull market may be supported by improved operating conditions due to domestic economic adjustments and recovery in manufacturing activities following rate cuts [4]. - Recommended sectors include upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold), capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks, lithium batteries, wind power equipment), and raw materials (basic chemicals, fiberglass, paper, steel) [4]. - Additionally, sectors related to domestic demand recovery, such as food and beverage, pork, tourism, and scenic spots, are expected to present opportunities as profit recovery progresses [4].