扩大内需和新质生产力的整体性跃升有望成为"十五五"的主线，彼此相互牵引推动经 济实现高质量发展。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 一、"十五五"时期的宏观环境 经济增长速度是五年规划的首要阶段性目标。与以往的五年规划不同，"十四五"规划并未提出明确的经济增长目标，而是要求"保持在合理区间、各年度 视情提出"，主要原因是当时的经济增长面临公共卫生事件带来的高度不确定性。 对于"十五五"规划而言，设定明确的年均经济增长目标是必要的、有条件的。 一方面，这有助于向市场释放积极信号，稳定社会预期。另一方面，根据 已有文献的预测，2026-2030年我国经济潜在经济增长率仍有5.1%左右。其中，国家信息中心预测"十五五"和"十六五"时期我国潜在经济增速分别为 5.01%和4.50%。 考虑到实际经济增速通常略低于潜在经济增长水平， 预计乐观情形下，"十五五"时期将年均增长指标设定为"5%左右" ，为2035年目标的实现打下坚 实基础。 从外部环境看，"十五五"时期大国竞争、大国博弈可能会进一步加剧。 2021年以来，全球地缘政治风险指数中枢较"十二五"和"十三五"时期出现抬 升，其波动明显加剧。与"十四五"时期相比， ...

Core Points - The "Regulations on Promoting Intelligent Manufacturing Development in Changzhou" is the first specialized regulation at the prefecture level in China, set to be implemented on October 1 [1] - The regulation aims to establish Changzhou as an "International Intelligent Manufacturing City" and positions intelligent manufacturing as a key strategy for the city's economic and social development [1] - It emphasizes a market-driven approach with government guidance, focusing on building a technological innovation system and supporting the development of high-end equipment, software, and system solutions [1] Summary by Sections Intelligent Manufacturing Development - The regulation highlights the importance of constructing a technological innovation system and aims to cultivate industries such as industrial mother machines, ultra-precision controllers, and robots [1] - It addresses industry application expansion, supports precise transformation for enterprises, tackles the upgrading challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and enhances demonstration and leadership [1] Artificial Intelligence Integration - A dedicated chapter in the regulation focuses on the development and application of artificial intelligence, aiming to strengthen the foundation through data, computing power, and algorithms [1] - The goal is to promote the integration and innovative development of artificial intelligence with the manufacturing sector [1] Action Plan - In conjunction with the regulation, the Changzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology has released a three-year action plan (2025-2027) to deepen the intelligent transformation and digital transition of the manufacturing industry [1] - The action plan includes five major initiatives: cultivating intelligent factories, enhancing the transformation and quality of SMEs, updating information infrastructure, popularizing advanced technology applications, and empowering industrial development [1]

Group 1 - The industrial development momentum in Huaiyin District is strong, with the industrial added value ranking among the top three in the city, and over 60 billion yuan invested in industrial projects in the past three years [1][2] - Huaiyin Economic Development Zone has been recognized as a third-generation semiconductor industry cluster in Jinan, achieving a full chain from substrate preparation to device packaging [1] - The district has implemented 25 new provincial and municipal technology projects and 87 provincial enterprise technology innovation projects, with Shandong CRRC being approved as a national technology innovation demonstration enterprise [1] Group 2 - The district is focusing on three development areas: Core Expansion Area, Health Industry Area, and High-end Equipment Area, aiming to promote new industrialization and accelerate the implementation of the industrial strong district plan [3] - The Core Expansion Area will focus on semiconductor equipment, packaging and testing, robotics, and CNC equipment, becoming the main battlefield for industrial manufacturing and technological innovation [3] - The Health Industry Area will leverage resources from the Jinan International Medical Center to cultivate the health industry as a new growth pole for Huaiyin District [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New Industrialization" issued by multiple Chinese government departments, outlining 18 measures to enhance financial support for the manufacturing sector, aiming for a mature financial system by 2027 that supports high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Support for Technological Innovation and Supply Chain Resilience - The Opinions emphasize optimizing financial policy tools to support key technology and product breakthroughs in critical manufacturing sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials, encouraging banks to provide medium to long-term financing [1]. - It also highlights the need for long-term capital and patient capital to accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, promoting diverse financing service models [1]. Modern Industrial System Construction - The Opinions call for banks to optimize credit policies to support the high-end, intelligent, and green development of traditional manufacturing, particularly focusing on digital transformation for SMEs [2]. - It stresses the importance of providing medium to long-term loan support for digital infrastructure projects, including 5G and industrial internet [2]. Industry Layout and Development Space Expansion - The Opinions propose enhancing financial service flexibility for industrial transfer, encouraging financial institutions to optimize resource allocation to support industry relocation to central and western regions [2]. - It advocates for improved information sharing and service coordination between banks in industrial transfer areas [2]. Strengthening Financial Support Capabilities - The Opinions suggest that financial institutions should incorporate support for new industrialization into their long-term strategies, adjusting their operations to meet national development needs [3]. - It emphasizes the need for collaboration between financial and industrial policies to support key sectors and SMEs [3]. Current Financial Support Status - Recent data indicates that financial support for the manufacturing sector is accelerating, with over 3,100 financial and investment institutions launching more than 800 financial products, resulting in a cumulative financing scale exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. - In the first half of the year, the A-share market raised 148.8 billion yuan for industrial enterprises, marking a 51.6% year-on-year increase [4]. Future Directions - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to enhance financial policies supporting new industrialization, focusing on product service innovation and the integration of technology and industry finance [5]. - It aims to establish pilot cities for financial cooperation to support high-quality manufacturing development [5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued guidelines to support new industrialization through financial means, focusing on key technology breakthroughs and long-term financing [1][12][14] - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide support for core technology breakthroughs, including green channels for financing through stock issuance and bond offerings [1][18] - Emphasis on promoting first sets of equipment and materials with increased financial backing [1] Group 2 - Capital investment in hard technology should be patient, with initiatives like monthly investment roadshows and nurturing of specialized small and medium enterprises for listing [2][20] - High-level talent entrepreneurship will receive comprehensive financial services, including credit and financial advisory [2][20] Group 3 - Traditional industries will see diversified financing channels, with banks increasing credit support for high-end, intelligent, and green transformations [3][25] - Companies can utilize financing leasing to update equipment and can securitize related debts [3][26] Group 4 - Emerging industries such as information technology, new energy, and biomedicine will have access to multi-tiered capital markets for financing [4][32] - Long-term funds from government investment funds and insurance will focus on future manufacturing and energy sectors [4][32] Group 5 - Financing for small and medium enterprises will reduce reliance on guarantees, utilizing data and asset credit for financing services [5][41] - A national credit information platform for small and micro enterprises is being established to facilitate first-time borrowers [5][41] Group 6 - Financial tools will be aligned with green transformation, supporting high-carbon industries in their transition to low-carbon projects [6][35] - Green credit and bonds will be directed towards environmental protection and energy-saving initiatives [6][36] Group 7 - Digital infrastructure projects like 5G and industrial internet will receive long-term loans and financing through leasing and asset securitization [7][39] - Banks are encouraged to build digital platforms for one-stop services in financing and settlement [7][39] Group 8 - Financial institutions must monitor fund usage to prevent misuse and ensure risk management [8][73] - Joint assessment of industrial and financial risks will be implemented to share high-risk information promptly [8][73]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies have issued guidelines to support new industrialization through financial integration and targeted investment initiatives [1][2] - The guidelines emphasize the importance of enhancing technological innovation capabilities and supply chain resilience in key industries, with a focus on long-term financing for critical technologies [1][3] - There is a push for increased financial support for emerging industries such as information technology, industrial software, and biotechnology, with specific measures to facilitate financing in these sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The guidelines propose the implementation of a "Technology-Industry Financial Integration" initiative, which includes monthly investment roadshows and support for specialized small and medium enterprises [2] - Financial institutions are encouraged to expand technology loan offerings and enhance the underwriting of technology innovation bonds to support the growth of new industries [2] - The guidelines also call for improved coordination between financial and industrial policies, with a focus on monitoring credit to the manufacturing sector and ensuring compliance with policy requirements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support new industrialization, aiming to enhance financial services for high-quality development and prevent excessive competition in the manufacturing sector [1]. Group 1: Financial Support Structure - The guidelines focus on optimizing the funding supply structure, providing loans, bonds, and equity financing to meet the effective credit demand of manufacturing enterprises by 2027 [2]. - The guidelines emphasize the use of structural monetary policy tools to encourage banks to provide long-term financing for key manufacturing sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials [2]. - The total quota for re-lending for technological innovation and technological transformation was increased to 800 billion yuan, indicating a need for further optimization of these tools [2]. Group 2: Direct Financing and Technology Enterprises - The guidelines establish a "green channel" for technology enterprises to access public financing, mergers and acquisitions, and bond issuance [3]. - There is a focus on introducing long-term capital and developing patient capital to support diverse financing service models for technology research and development [3]. - The implementation of a "technology-industry-finance integration" initiative aims to enhance the evaluation system for hard technology attributes [3]. Group 3: Credit Policy Optimization - The guidelines propose targeted support measures for traditional manufacturing, encouraging banks to optimize credit policies based on a "support and control" principle [4]. - Financial support will be directed towards high-end, intelligent, and green development in traditional manufacturing, as well as industry consolidation through various financial instruments [4]. - The guidelines advocate for deepening supply chain financial services, providing financing based on data and physical credit for small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. Group 4: Cross-Border Financial Services - The guidelines aim to enhance the convenience of cross-border financial services, including trade settlement and investment management [5]. - There is a proposal to expand the pilot scope for foreign investment reinvestment without registration [5]. Group 5: Long-term Financial Service Mechanisms - The guidelines call for establishing a one-on-one mentoring mechanism for major industrial financing projects to address issues like information asymmetry [6]. - A collaborative approach among departments is encouraged to create a supportive environment for financing projects, with a focus on risk prevention and management [6]. - The guidelines highlight the importance of preventing excessive competition in the financial sector while supporting industrial mergers and acquisitions to promote industry consolidation [6].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and seven ministries issued guidelines to support the new industrialization, aiming for a mature financial system for high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing by 2027 [1] - The policy emphasizes increased support for medium- and long-term loans and credit loans to the manufacturing sector, with banks required to establish separate credit plans for manufacturing [1] - The government is accelerating the digital transformation of manufacturing and supporting the upgrade of traditional manufacturing to high-end, intelligent, and green development [1] Group 2 - High-end equipment manufacturing will benefit from industrial upgrades and technological innovation support policies, particularly in areas like industrial mother machines, precision instruments, and intelligent manufacturing equipment [2] - The new energy sector, including electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power, will receive green credit and bond support under the low-carbon transition policy [2] - The integrated circuit sector, as a key technology area, will enjoy medium- and long-term financing support for chip design, manufacturing, and testing [2] Group 3 - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) is positioned as a leader in engineering machinery, benefiting from intelligent manufacturing transformation and upgrades [2] - Zhongwei Company (688012), a leading semiconductor equipment enterprise, will benefit from financial support policies in the integrated circuit industry chain [3] - CATL (300750), a leader in new energy batteries, will see capacity expansion supported by green finance policies [4] - Xiaomi Group (01810), representing the smart manufacturing and consumer electronics sector, will benefit from policies promoting digital transformation in the industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the joint issuance of guidelines by multiple Chinese government departments to enhance financial support for new industrialization, focusing on key sectors and technologies, and promoting sustainable development through various financial instruments. Group 1: Key Technology and Financial Support - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide medium to long-term financing for key industries such as integrated circuits and industrial mother machines, with a "green channel" for companies that break through core technologies [1][16] - Financial support will be increased for the promotion of first sets of equipment and first batches of materials [1] Group 2: Capital Patience for Technology Transformation - Initiatives like monthly investment roadshows and nurturing of specialized small and medium enterprises for listing are proposed to optimize the evaluation of hard technology attributes [2][18] - A comprehensive financial service package will be offered for high-level talent entrepreneurship [2] Group 3: Financing Channels for Traditional Industry Upgrades - Banks will enhance credit support for the transformation of traditional manufacturing into high-end, intelligent, and green industries [3][22] - Companies can utilize financing leasing to update intelligent equipment and environmental protection devices, with related debts being securitized [3] Group 4: Funding for Emerging Future Industries - New generation information technology, renewable energy, and biomedicine can access multi-tiered capital markets for financing [4][23] - Long-term funds from government investment funds and insurance will focus on future manufacturing and energy sectors [4] Group 5: Financing for Small and Medium Enterprises - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide financing services based on "data credit" and "object credit," reducing reliance on guarantees [5][34] - A national credit information platform for small and micro enterprises is being accelerated to facilitate first-time borrowers [5] Group 6: Green Transformation and Financial Tools - High-carbon industries that meet green low-carbon transformation criteria will receive bank support [6][25] - Green credit and bonds will be directed towards environmental protection, energy saving, and low-carbon projects [6] Group 7: Digital Integration and Intelligent Services - Digital infrastructure such as 5G and industrial internet will be eligible for medium to long-term loans [7][30] - Banks are encouraged to build digital industry platforms for one-stop services, utilizing big data and AI to enhance service efficiency for small and medium enterprises [7] Group 8: Risk Prevention and Control - Financial institutions must monitor the use of funds to prevent misuse and ensure that risks are shared and assessed jointly [9][60] - Manufacturing sector non-performing loans can be managed through restructuring and legal write-offs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has issued a notice regarding the implementation plan for the digital transformation of the machinery industry, focusing on upgrading outdated equipment and promoting intelligent manufacturing solutions [1] Group 1: Equipment Upgrade and Intelligent Manufacturing - The plan emphasizes the need for large-scale equipment renewal actions to address the demand for upgrading outdated, inefficient, and high-energy-consuming machinery [1] - It supports enterprises in integrating and applying intelligent components for perception, control, and execution to enhance existing equipment [1] Group 2: National Defense and Strategic Needs - The initiative includes the implementation of major national science and technology projects aimed at breakthroughs in industrial mother machines, industrial robots, intelligent instruments, safety emergency equipment, and mining safety equipment [1] Group 3: Consumer Needs and Smart Equipment Development - The plan aims to develop intelligent agricultural machinery, medical equipment, textile machinery, food machinery, energy-saving and environmental protection equipment, and service robots to meet the needs of people's better lives [1] Group 4: Future Technology and Global Trends - The strategy also focuses on accelerating major technological equipment projects to achieve breakthroughs in humanoid robots and brain-computer interface products, aligning with global technological innovation trends and future industry development needs [1]