12月22日，2026年比特币的走势可能比以往更加难以预测。根据研究显示，宏观经济和市场风险交织， 使加密资产市场充满不确定性。CWG Markets外汇认为，尽管短期波动加大，但长期来看，比特币仍具 备较强的上行潜力，预计到2027年底可能触及25万美元水平。 在市场表现方面，CWG Markets外汇分析认为，期权市场和波动率趋势显示，比特币正在逐步转型为更 接近宏观资产的投资工具，而非传统意义上的高成长投机品。以期权市场为例，当前定价反映出未来价 格可能大幅波动——交易者对2026年中比特币可能在7万美元或13万美元徘徊、年底可能在5万美元或25 万美元的概率几乎相当。CWG Markets外汇认为，这种现象表明机构投资者正在为潜在的大幅价格波动 做准备，而非明确的单边趋势。 与此同时，CWG Markets外汇注意到，比特币正在展现结构性成熟的迹象。长期波动率下降，部分原因 是机构策略如期权覆盖和收益生成项目的增长，这类策略往往可以抑制极端价格波动。此外，期权市场 的"波动率微笑"显示下行保护成本高于上行敞口，这种模式更常见于成熟的宏观资产而非高增长市场。 在市场表现方面，CWG Markets外汇分 ...

2025年很可能成为比特币历史上第四个价格下跌的年份，且唯独在这一年里既不曾爆出重大丑闻，也没 有出现过行业性崩盘。 自10月初比特币价格创下逾12.6万美元的历史新高以来，价格回落之猛令多头措手不及，也连累整个加 密资产市场跌跌不休。交易量低迷，投资者纷纷抛售比特币ETF，衍生品市场也缺乏押注价格反弹的意 愿。 当前熊市行情意味着比特币与股票市场脱钩。标普500指数本月早些时候收于历史新高，今年迄今已上 涨16%。科技股的表现甚至更胜一筹，而比特币此前往往与科技股走势同步。 当前熊市行情意味着比特币与股票市场脱钩。标普500指数本月早些时候收于历史新高，今年迄今已上 涨16%。科技股的表现甚至更胜一筹，而比特币此前往往与科技股走势同步。 责任编辑：刘明亮 2025年很可能成为比特币历史上第四个价格下跌的年份，且唯独在这一年里既不曾爆出重大丑闻，也没 有出现过行业性崩盘。 原创加密货币比特币本周一迎来新一轮下跌，今年迄今跌幅约7%。截至周三新加坡时间中午，比特币 交易价格约为8.7万美元。 原创加密货币比特币本周一迎来新一轮下跌，今年迄今跌幅约7%。截至周三新加坡时间中午，比特币 交易价格约为8.7万美元。 ...

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin market showed a rebound after dipping above the $90,000 mark, indicating strong support in that area [1] - The market sentiment shifted from pessimism to cautious optimism, with a notable recovery in price to around $93,400 [1] - The price rebound is characterized as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, as trading volume did not significantly increase [1][2] - The market is currently in a "sharp drop followed by a quick rebound" phase, lacking sustained momentum in either direction [1] Group 2: Trading Strategy - The core strategy in the current volatile market is to accurately identify critical support and resistance levels [2] - If prices break below key support levels, it may trigger panic selling; conversely, maintaining support could open up upward movement [2] - The Bollinger Bands indicate a narrowing range, confirming the market is in a consolidation phase with unclear short-term direction [2] - A range-bound trading strategy is recommended, focusing on buying low and selling high to avoid emotional trading [2] Group 3: Ethereum Market Analysis - Ethereum's market saw a significant increase in bullish momentum, recovering the key psychological level of $3,180 and reaching a high of $3,239 [5] - The market remains in a neutral state, with no clear trend established, as both bulls and bears contest key support and resistance levels [5] - Two potential scenarios for short-term price movement are identified: testing support before a rebound or facing resistance leading to a downward move [5] Group 4: Trading Recommendations for Ethereum - A buying opportunity is suggested in the $3,120-$3,090 range, which is near previous trading volume clusters and long-term support [7] - If prices stabilize above the middle Bollinger Band, upward targets may be adjusted; however, caution is advised if prices face further downward pressure [7] - A quick in-and-out trading strategy is recommended, with attention to Bitcoin's market movements and macroeconomic changes [7][8] Group 5: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall cryptocurrency market is in a transitional phase, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum remaining in a consolidation range [8] - Investor sentiment is cautious, focusing on the battle for key support and resistance levels [8] - It is advised to maintain a rational investment approach, avoiding excessive expectations of a single trend and focusing on range-bound trading [8] - Attention should be given to upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve statements, as these could influence market sentiment [8]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is at a sensitive point in the Merrill Lynch investment clock, likely transitioning away from deflation in the second half of the year, which could lead to a significant rise in the A-share market [1] - The expectation is that the A-share index could surpass 4000 points if price effects materialize, driven by strong momentum in cyclical assets [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The first key industry trend is RDA logic, focusing on data assetization through blockchain technology, which is essential for ensuring the security and legality of data assets in the AI economy [2] - The second trend is the circular economy, which aims to address China's energy bottlenecks through technological innovation, particularly in converting waste plastics into alternative energy products [2] - The third trend is the industrialization of solid-state batteries, which is crucial for China's leadership in low-altitude economy and robotics, with expectations for large-scale commercialization in the next two years [3] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The U.S. faces significant risks with the dollar and treasury bond system, which may lead to a reliance on blockchain and stablecoins as a form of self-redemption [3] - The ongoing G2 strategic competition suggests that the current gold bull market could last longer and see greater gains than any previous cycle, making gold a favorable long-term investment [4]

Group 1 - The core conflict of the current era is the showdown between China's industrial power and the financial power represented by the US dollar, with trade wars and tariff battles being mere surface issues [1][8][20] - The expansion of stablecoins is driven not only by virtual and crypto assets but also by real-world economic and trade dynamics [1][20] - The political will behind the "anti-involution" movement is significant, and its successful implementation could lead to strong upward momentum in cyclical sectors, potentially pushing indices to new heights [1][42] Group 2 - The "Stablecoin Act" passed by the US Congress in May 2024 is seen as a significant attempt at financial restructuring and a self-redemption of the dollar's power [2][5][6] - The core design of stablecoins requires that for every unit issued, there must be an equivalent compliant asset backing it, such as US Treasury bonds, which will increase in demand as the blockchain asset market expands [3][19] - China must adopt a dual approach by not only promoting the digitalization of its currency but also building a market for crypto assets denominated in renminbi to enhance its global financial power [3][21][23] Group 3 - The past two decades have seen a significant rise in China's manufacturing dominance, while the financial power of the US has stagnated, leading to a growing disparity between the two powers [8][10] - The US has attempted to undermine China's industrial power through trade policies, but China's manufacturing output has actually increased by 5 percentage points during this period [9][10] - The future balance between these two powers will depend on how effectively China can elevate the renminbi's status in the global financial system [10][11] Group 4 - The stablecoin act aims to connect the crypto asset market with the fragile US dollar system, attempting to rejuvenate the dollar's credit system to counter China's industrial strength [12][13][20] - The rapid expansion of the blockchain asset market is facilitated by advancements in technology, particularly in AI and distributed ledger systems, which could potentially replace traditional fiat currency mechanisms [15][19] - The global capital market has begun to accept the logic of stablecoin expansion, which is tied to the demand for US Treasury bonds [19][20] Group 5 - The "anti-involution" strategy is positioned as a core economic policy for the second half of the year, aiming to reverse the current deflationary trends in China [30][31][32] - The current deflationary state is characterized by aggressive price competition among manufacturers, which could lead to systemic risks if not addressed [33][34] - The success of the "anti-involution" policy will depend on both supply-side interventions and demand-side stimulus measures to halt the downward price spiral [36][40] Group 6 - The potential for cyclical sectors to gain momentum in the market is significant if the "anti-involution" measures yield positive price effects [42][43] - The current market sentiment reflects skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures, with investors still favoring deflationary assets [41][42] - The complexity of implementing "anti-involution" measures today is greater than a decade ago, as the focus has shifted to final product sectors dominated by private enterprises [39][40] Group 7 - Gold is identified as the best investment asset in the current G2 era, with a strong likelihood of high returns over a longer time horizon [66][68] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic competition between the US and China create a prolonged period of uncertainty, making gold a reliable asset [67][68]

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory framework for stablecoins is evolving globally, with significant developments in the U.S. and Hong Kong, which are expected to enhance market stability and drive the growth of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization [2][4][7]. Regulatory Developments - The U.S. has adopted a unified legislative approach for stablecoin regulation, with the GENIUS Act set to become law, establishing comprehensive guidelines for issuance, reserves, redemption, and auditing [4][5]. - Hong Kong has implemented the Stablecoin Issuance Regulatory Ordinance, which mandates high liquidity for reserve assets and requires licensed institutions to maintain robust risk management practices [7]. Market Dynamics - The rise of stablecoins is facilitating the digitization of assets and enhancing the efficiency of settlements, creating a cycle of increased asset digitalization, efficient settlement, and structured allocation [2][10]. - Stablecoins are becoming a key innovation in the digital currency space, widely used in cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi) [2]. RWA and Stablecoin Interaction - The integration of stablecoins with RWA is creating a synergistic value cycle, where stablecoins serve as a liquidity tool and pricing benchmark for RWA markets, driving efficient asset circulation [10]. - The use of blockchain technology allows for the transformation of real-world assets into tradeable tokens, with stablecoins playing a crucial role in the digitalization process [9][10]. Efficiency Gains - A practical example in the renewable energy sector demonstrates that using stablecoins for RWA asset transactions can reduce cross-border settlement time and costs by 70-80% [9].

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which can enhance the resilience of the system and maintain global economic stability [2][3] - Discussions on reforming the monetary system focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the use of a supranational currency, such as the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [2][3] - SDR is seen as a potential solution to the inherent issues of a single sovereign currency, offering greater stability and the ability to better fulfill global public goods functions [3] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for international trade and financial stability, but traditional systems face challenges such as inefficiency and high costs [4][5] - There is a growing trend towards diversification in the cross-border payment system, with more countries using local currencies for settlements and new payment systems emerging [4] - Emerging technologies like blockchain and distributed ledger technology are reshaping the payment landscape, enabling faster and more efficient cross-border transactions [5] Group 3: Global Financial Stability System - The global financial stability system has evolved post-2008 financial crisis, but it faces new challenges such as fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors [6][7] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to prevent regulatory arbitrage and enhance the stability of the financial system [6] - Strengthening the IMF as a core institution for global financial safety is essential for crisis prevention and resolution [7] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - Calls for reform in international financial organizations are increasing, as current governance structures do not reflect the economic realities of emerging markets and developing countries [8] - Adjusting the voting rights and quotas in organizations like the IMF is crucial for enhancing the representation and voice of these countries [8] - The legitimacy and effectiveness of international financial organizations depend on their ability to adapt to the changing global economic landscape [8]