吴说获悉，据阿根廷国家证券委员会（CNV）公告，CNV 批准第 1108 号一般决议，以落实《第 27.799 号税务善意原则法》及其实施法令，允许选择"简化所得税申报制度"的资金进入资本市场及已注册虚拟 资产服务提供商（PSAV）。相关资金可通过受监管机构进行存入及资产转移，但来源司法辖区不得属 于不合作或高风险地区。该框架旨在推动资金回流阿根廷金融体系，并在合规前提下扩大资本市场与加 密资产市场的参与度。 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is a significant milestone for Vietnam's information and communication technology (ICT) sector, marked by important decisions in various areas such as institutional mechanisms, organizational structure, cybersecurity, data, and strategic technologies, aimed at accelerating digital transformation and shaping the long-term development framework of a digital nation. Group 1 - The National Assembly of Vietnam passed a series of important laws to establish a solid legal framework for science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and the field of news and communication [1] - The Vietnamese government, National Assembly, and various departments and localities are committed to implementing the Central Committee's resolution on technological innovation and national digital transformation [2] - The Ministry of Information and Communications has been merged into the Ministry of Science and Technology, with some functions transferred to the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Culture, Sports, and Tourism [3] Group 2 - The National Assembly approved the Cybersecurity Law and the Personal Data Protection Law, drafted by the Ministry of Public Security [4] - The government issued Decree No. 1131, announcing 11 strategic technology areas and 35 key product categories for Vietnam [5] - Vietnam hosted the signing ceremony for the UN Convention on Cybercrime and the Hanoi Convention, with participation from 72 countries, highlighting Vietnam's proactive role in shaping cyberspace governance and deepening international cooperation [6] Group 3 - The government issued a decree to pilot the development of a cryptocurrency market [7] - The government legally prosecuted several key opinion leaders and public figures for disseminating false advertisements and selling counterfeit goods online [8] - The National Credit Information Center of Vietnam suffered a cyberattack [9] - Vietnam has begun developing its low-altitude economy [10]

Core Insights - The trajectory of Bitcoin in 2026 is expected to be more unpredictable due to intertwined macroeconomic and market risks, yet it retains strong long-term upside potential, with projections suggesting it could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027 [1][2]. Market Performance - Analysis from CWG Markets indicates that Bitcoin is transitioning towards being a macro asset investment tool rather than a traditional high-growth speculative asset, as evidenced by the options market pricing reflecting significant future price volatility [3]. - Traders anticipate that Bitcoin could fluctuate between $70,000 and $130,000 mid-2026, and between $50,000 and $250,000 by year-end, indicating a preparation for substantial price swings rather than a clear directional trend [3]. Structural Maturity - Bitcoin is showing signs of structural maturity, with a decline in long-term volatility attributed to the growth of institutional strategies such as options covering and yield generation projects, which tend to mitigate extreme price fluctuations [4]. - The options market's "volatility smile" indicates that the cost of downside protection is higher than upside exposure, a pattern more typical of mature macro assets rather than high-growth markets [4]. Long-term Investment Value - Despite potential "flat" years, the long-term investment value of Bitcoin remains intact, supported by increasing institutional adoption and market maturity, which are expected to drive its development [4]. - The inclusion of Bitcoin in mainstream asset allocation could lead to stable capital inflows, reinforcing structural demand and supporting its performance in 2027 and beyond [4]. - With expanding institutional access, potential monetary policy easing, and rising demand for fiat alternatives, Bitcoin is positioned to become a tool against currency devaluation, similar to gold [4].

Core Insights - 2025 is likely to be the fourth year in Bitcoin's history with a price decline, occurring without major scandals or industry collapses [1][5] - Bitcoin experienced a new round of declines this week, with a year-to-date drop of approximately 7%, trading at around $87,000 as of Wednesday noon Singapore time [1][5] Market Performance - Since reaching a historical high of over $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin's rapid price drop has caught bullish investors off guard, contributing to a continuous decline in the entire crypto asset market [3][7] - Trading volumes are low, with investors selling off Bitcoin ETFs and the derivatives market showing a lack of willingness to bet on a price rebound [3][7] - The current bear market indicates a decoupling of Bitcoin from the stock market, as the S&P 500 index recently closed at a historical high, up 16% year-to-date, while tech stocks have performed even better [3][7]

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin market showed a rebound after dipping above the $90,000 mark, indicating strong support in that area [1] - The market sentiment shifted from pessimism to cautious optimism, with a notable recovery in price to around $93,400 [1] - The price rebound is characterized as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, as trading volume did not significantly increase [1][2] - The market is currently in a "sharp drop followed by a quick rebound" phase, lacking sustained momentum in either direction [1] Group 2: Trading Strategy - The core strategy in the current volatile market is to accurately identify critical support and resistance levels [2] - If prices break below key support levels, it may trigger panic selling; conversely, maintaining support could open up upward movement [2] - The Bollinger Bands indicate a narrowing range, confirming the market is in a consolidation phase with unclear short-term direction [2] - A range-bound trading strategy is recommended, focusing on buying low and selling high to avoid emotional trading [2] Group 3: Ethereum Market Analysis - Ethereum's market saw a significant increase in bullish momentum, recovering the key psychological level of $3,180 and reaching a high of $3,239 [5] - The market remains in a neutral state, with no clear trend established, as both bulls and bears contest key support and resistance levels [5] - Two potential scenarios for short-term price movement are identified: testing support before a rebound or facing resistance leading to a downward move [5] Group 4: Trading Recommendations for Ethereum - A buying opportunity is suggested in the $3,120-$3,090 range, which is near previous trading volume clusters and long-term support [7] - If prices stabilize above the middle Bollinger Band, upward targets may be adjusted; however, caution is advised if prices face further downward pressure [7] - A quick in-and-out trading strategy is recommended, with attention to Bitcoin's market movements and macroeconomic changes [7][8] Group 5: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall cryptocurrency market is in a transitional phase, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum remaining in a consolidation range [8] - Investor sentiment is cautious, focusing on the battle for key support and resistance levels [8] - It is advised to maintain a rational investment approach, avoiding excessive expectations of a single trend and focusing on range-bound trading [8] - Attention should be given to upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve statements, as these could influence market sentiment [8]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is at a sensitive point in the Merrill Lynch investment clock, likely transitioning away from deflation in the second half of the year, which could lead to a significant rise in the A-share market [1] - The expectation is that the A-share index could surpass 4000 points if price effects materialize, driven by strong momentum in cyclical assets [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The first key industry trend is RDA logic, focusing on data assetization through blockchain technology, which is essential for ensuring the security and legality of data assets in the AI economy [2] - The second trend is the circular economy, which aims to address China's energy bottlenecks through technological innovation, particularly in converting waste plastics into alternative energy products [2] - The third trend is the industrialization of solid-state batteries, which is crucial for China's leadership in low-altitude economy and robotics, with expectations for large-scale commercialization in the next two years [3] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The U.S. faces significant risks with the dollar and treasury bond system, which may lead to a reliance on blockchain and stablecoins as a form of self-redemption [3] - The ongoing G2 strategic competition suggests that the current gold bull market could last longer and see greater gains than any previous cycle, making gold a favorable long-term investment [4]

Group 1 - The core conflict of the current era is the showdown between China's industrial power and the financial power represented by the US dollar, with trade wars and tariff battles being mere surface issues [1][8][20] - The expansion of stablecoins is driven not only by virtual and crypto assets but also by real-world economic and trade dynamics [1][20] - The political will behind the "anti-involution" movement is significant, and its successful implementation could lead to strong upward momentum in cyclical sectors, potentially pushing indices to new heights [1][42] Group 2 - The "Stablecoin Act" passed by the US Congress in May 2024 is seen as a significant attempt at financial restructuring and a self-redemption of the dollar's power [2][5][6] - The core design of stablecoins requires that for every unit issued, there must be an equivalent compliant asset backing it, such as US Treasury bonds, which will increase in demand as the blockchain asset market expands [3][19] - China must adopt a dual approach by not only promoting the digitalization of its currency but also building a market for crypto assets denominated in renminbi to enhance its global financial power [3][21][23] Group 3 - The past two decades have seen a significant rise in China's manufacturing dominance, while the financial power of the US has stagnated, leading to a growing disparity between the two powers [8][10] - The US has attempted to undermine China's industrial power through trade policies, but China's manufacturing output has actually increased by 5 percentage points during this period [9][10] - The future balance between these two powers will depend on how effectively China can elevate the renminbi's status in the global financial system [10][11] Group 4 - The stablecoin act aims to connect the crypto asset market with the fragile US dollar system, attempting to rejuvenate the dollar's credit system to counter China's industrial strength [12][13][20] - The rapid expansion of the blockchain asset market is facilitated by advancements in technology, particularly in AI and distributed ledger systems, which could potentially replace traditional fiat currency mechanisms [15][19] - The global capital market has begun to accept the logic of stablecoin expansion, which is tied to the demand for US Treasury bonds [19][20] Group 5 - The "anti-involution" strategy is positioned as a core economic policy for the second half of the year, aiming to reverse the current deflationary trends in China [30][31][32] - The current deflationary state is characterized by aggressive price competition among manufacturers, which could lead to systemic risks if not addressed [33][34] - The success of the "anti-involution" policy will depend on both supply-side interventions and demand-side stimulus measures to halt the downward price spiral [36][40] Group 6 - The potential for cyclical sectors to gain momentum in the market is significant if the "anti-involution" measures yield positive price effects [42][43] - The current market sentiment reflects skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures, with investors still favoring deflationary assets [41][42] - The complexity of implementing "anti-involution" measures today is greater than a decade ago, as the focus has shifted to final product sectors dominated by private enterprises [39][40] Group 7 - Gold is identified as the best investment asset in the current G2 era, with a strong likelihood of high returns over a longer time horizon [66][68] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic competition between the US and China create a prolonged period of uncertainty, making gold a reliable asset [67][68]

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory framework for stablecoins is evolving globally, with significant developments in the U.S. and Hong Kong, which are expected to enhance market stability and drive the growth of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization [2][4][7]. Regulatory Developments - The U.S. has adopted a unified legislative approach for stablecoin regulation, with the GENIUS Act set to become law, establishing comprehensive guidelines for issuance, reserves, redemption, and auditing [4][5]. - Hong Kong has implemented the Stablecoin Issuance Regulatory Ordinance, which mandates high liquidity for reserve assets and requires licensed institutions to maintain robust risk management practices [7]. Market Dynamics - The rise of stablecoins is facilitating the digitization of assets and enhancing the efficiency of settlements, creating a cycle of increased asset digitalization, efficient settlement, and structured allocation [2][10]. - Stablecoins are becoming a key innovation in the digital currency space, widely used in cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi) [2]. RWA and Stablecoin Interaction - The integration of stablecoins with RWA is creating a synergistic value cycle, where stablecoins serve as a liquidity tool and pricing benchmark for RWA markets, driving efficient asset circulation [10]. - The use of blockchain technology allows for the transformation of real-world assets into tradeable tokens, with stablecoins playing a crucial role in the digitalization process [9][10]. Efficiency Gains - A practical example in the renewable energy sector demonstrates that using stablecoins for RWA asset transactions can reduce cross-border settlement time and costs by 70-80% [9].

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which can enhance the resilience of the system and maintain global economic stability [2][3] - Discussions on reforming the monetary system focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the use of a supranational currency, such as the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [2][3] - SDR is seen as a potential solution to the inherent issues of a single sovereign currency, offering greater stability and the ability to better fulfill global public goods functions [3] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for international trade and financial stability, but traditional systems face challenges such as inefficiency and high costs [4][5] - There is a growing trend towards diversification in the cross-border payment system, with more countries using local currencies for settlements and new payment systems emerging [4] - Emerging technologies like blockchain and distributed ledger technology are reshaping the payment landscape, enabling faster and more efficient cross-border transactions [5] Group 3: Global Financial Stability System - The global financial stability system has evolved post-2008 financial crisis, but it faces new challenges such as fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors [6][7] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to prevent regulatory arbitrage and enhance the stability of the financial system [6] - Strengthening the IMF as a core institution for global financial safety is essential for crisis prevention and resolution [7] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - Calls for reform in international financial organizations are increasing, as current governance structures do not reflect the economic realities of emerging markets and developing countries [8] - Adjusting the voting rights and quotas in organizations like the IMF is crucial for enhancing the representation and voice of these countries [8] - The legitimacy and effectiveness of international financial organizations depend on their ability to adapt to the changing global economic landscape [8]