（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.8%，石油石化行业占比为32.2%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构和 淘汰落后产能等政策。 11月24日，石化ETF（159731）震荡下行，现跌约1.1%，持仓股光威复材、蓝晓科技、三美股份等领 涨；川发龙蟒、盐湖股份等领跌。石化ETF（159731）近10个交易日有8个交易日获得资金净流入，合 计"吸金"2674万元。 华创证券认为，三季报到年报出炉，市场面临5个月的业绩空窗期，投资人面临布局明年和风格切换的 需要，因此化工是值得布局的选择之一。化工行业的整体加权开工率在历史高点，而价差还在底部，距 离反转还需要看到库存的去化，但已经有零星品种率先走出底部反转趋势。建议沿着四条路线进行配 置：（1）反转早期优先布局白马标的；（2）稀缺资源品有望迎来估值再定价，布局资源禀赋好的磷化 工、钾盐、氟化工龙头；（3）布局增量可观，成长确定性强的标的；（4）供需结构好，反转确定性较 强的农药、氨纶、长丝和有机硅等行业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is transitioning from a state of overcapacity to a supply-demand rebalancing, driven by global economic recovery and targeted domestic policies, with 2026 identified as a critical year for establishing a turning point in the industry [2][3]. Supply Side Analysis - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry has peaked, with fixed asset and new capacity growth rates declining to around 7%, a significant drop from double-digit growth in 2021-2022 [3]. - New capacity for traditional bulk chemicals like methanol, ethylene, and PTA has decreased by over 30% year-on-year, while smaller capacities are exiting the market due to environmental and safety constraints, leading to increased industry concentration [3]. Demand Side Analysis - The recovery in demand is driven by both domestic and international factors, including the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to boost global chemical product export demand growth to 8%-10% by 2026 [3]. - In China, key demand engines such as real estate, textile exports, and agricultural chemicals are gradually gaining momentum, with chemical product export growth showing signs of recovery [3]. Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy is accelerating the industry's turnaround, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing three key measures: controlling new capacity, reducing existing capacity, and managing processes [4]. - The old capacity assessment has been completed, and the implementation of these policies is in the countdown phase, with industry associations and leading companies actively participating in these initiatives [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The chlor-alkali industry is expected to see a gradual slowdown in supply growth due to restrictions on traditional production methods [5]. - The textile chain, particularly the nylon industry, is projected to improve profitability as operating rates rise above 90% [5]. - The organic silicon sector is nearing a turning point as the period of intensive capacity investment ends, with strong demand support anticipated [5]. High-Elasticity Core Enterprises - The textile chain is highlighted as a primary focus, with significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics expected to lead to concentrated profit releases in 2026 [6]. - The agricultural chemical chain is benefiting from food security strategies, with a tight supply-demand situation projected for phosphate chemicals until at least 2028 [7]. - The overseas real estate chain is expected to benefit from global economic recovery, particularly in the fluorochemical sector, where demand for refrigerants is strong [8]. New Materials and Technologies - New materials are identified as a critical area for investment, with a focus on semiconductor materials, OLED panel materials, and solid-state batteries among others [9]. - The chemical industry is witnessing a consolidation of leading companies, with the number of top firms increasing from 3-4 to around 20 over the past decade, indicating a strengthening competitive landscape [10].

Summary of Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical sector is experiencing a reversal driven by multiple factors, including the elimination of outdated capacity, control of new supply, initiation of inventory cycles, and steepening cost curves [1][5][21]. - The chemical industry is currently at a low point in price spread data, with profit margins at historical lows, but signs of recovery are emerging as net profit margins have increased from 4.4% in 2024 to 5.8% in the first half of 2025 [1][6]. Key Insights - **Reversal Timing**: The current reversal point for the chemical sector is supported by domestic policy changes and the end of a three-year deep destocking cycle overseas. A significant upturn in the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected in 2-3 quarters [3][13]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Capital expenditure in the chemical industry is showing a contraction, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025. This trend typically precedes a recovery in PPI [4][12]. - **Cash Flow Stability**: Despite declining profits, leading companies maintain stable operating cash flows, with a cash flow-to-market value ratio of approximately 7.9%, indicating good value [6]. Global Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies have a significantly higher Return on Assets (ROA) compared to 2015 cycle lows and overseas competitors, with China accounting for 43% of global production [7]. - The shift of European energy supply to American LNG has drastically increased natural gas costs, impacting the European chemical industry, particularly in basic chemicals and polymers [8]. Challenges and Opportunities - The European fine chemical sector faces potential market share declines due to supply chain disruptions and the relocation of manufacturing industries to China [10]. - The chemical industry is expected to see varying growth rates across different product categories, with oil and coal chemical products projected to grow faster than phosphorus, fluorine, and silicon products [11]. Investment Strategies - **Stock Selection**: Investors are advised to focus on cyclical stocks with strong recovery potential, such as Wanhua Chemical and Tongkun Group, which may benefit from market cycle shifts [27][30]. - **Market Dynamics**: The relationship between PPI turning points and excess returns in the chemical sector suggests that early positioning can yield significant benefits [14][19]. - **Long-term Growth**: Companies like Juhua Co., Sailun Tire, and Kingfa Sci. & Tech. are highlighted for their long-term growth potential due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [36][40]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is on the cusp of a significant turnaround, driven by structural changes and market dynamics. Investors should remain vigilant for opportunities in leading companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends while being mindful of the challenges posed by global competition and supply chain shifts.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The energy storage market in China is transitioning from policy-driven growth to economic-driven growth, with regions like Inner Mongolia and Shandong benefiting from supportive electricity prices and improved spot market returns, leading to robust market growth and increased market share for leading companies [2][3] - The overseas energy storage market, particularly in Europe and the United States, is experiencing rapid development of large-scale projects driven by economic factors, with emerging markets showing increased demand for backup power, particularly in commercial storage due to electricity shortages and improved returns [2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The domestic energy storage market is expected to grow sustainably as it shifts towards a product-oriented model, with leading companies gaining more market share and orders [3] - The chemical industry is currently undervalued and facing a potential turnaround, with policies aimed at reducing overcapacity likely to improve cash flow and dividend yields, enhancing valuation advantages [2][10] - The renewable energy sector is emerging strongly in a bull market, with the energy storage sector poised to become a new focal point in technology investments [2][9] Investment Opportunities - Key areas to focus on include lithium battery technology, emerging residential and commercial storage solutions, and overseas power conversion systems (PCS) and operators [2][6] - The energy storage sector is expected to become a new mainstay in the technology field, particularly as market styles shift towards urgent investments and high-cut-low strategies [9] Specific Company Insights - Companies in the chemical sector related to energy storage include: 1. **Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group** in the phosphate chemical sector, benefiting from stable demand and improving profitability [4][13] 2. **New Zobon**, a leader in electrolyte technology, maintaining strong profitability and stable deliveries [4][13] 3. **Zhenhua Co.**, focusing on chromium salt and metal chromium, expected to benefit from supply constraints and strong downstream demand [4][13] Market Dynamics - The lithium battery sector is expected to stabilize and grow, driven by domestic and overseas expansion plans from major battery manufacturers [14][15] - Solid-state batteries are a significant variable for price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with multiple catalysts expected in the coming years [16][17] - Lithium prices have seen a significant increase due to supply disruptions and rising demand, with expectations for continued strength in pricing [18][21] Future Trends - The energy storage sector is projected to thrive as more renewable energy sources enter the spot market, with supportive policies enhancing project profitability [24] - Beneficial stocks in the energy storage sector include green power operators and storage operators, which are expected to gain from green energy subsidies and improved future returns [25]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant increase, with the annualized ROE for the sector reaching 7.6% in H1 2025, while the PB has only slightly recovered to 1.84, indicating a lagging phase for PB compared to ROE [1] - The chemical ETF (159870) has shown an annualized ROE recovery of 9%, yet its PB has decreased to 1.65, a situation not previously observed, providing a safety cushion for market allocation towards the chemical ETF [1] - After two months of recovery, the PB of the chemical ETF has improved to 1.99, reflecting a 20% increase compared to H1, but it still has significant room for growth compared to historical PB levels of 2.7 in 2015 and 2.39 in 2019 [1] Group 2 - As of September 3, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.92%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Jinfeng Technology (5.46%) and Baofeng Energy (2.36%) [2] - The chemical ETF (159870) increased by 1.18%, with a latest price of 0.69 yuan, and has seen continuous net inflows over the past 16 days, totaling 99.55 billion yuan with an average daily net inflow of 6.22 billion yuan [2] - The largest chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of larger, more liquid listed companies in related sub-industries [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the chemical industry is expected to stabilize and rebound in the second half of 2025, following a prolonged downtrend and a recent narrowing of the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline [1][3] - The PPI for July showed a month-on-month decline of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, with signs of narrowing declines in upstream industries, suggesting a potential recovery in the chemical sector [1][3] - The chemical sector has experienced a three-year downtrend, with PPI in continuous deflation for 33 months, nearing the end of a historical deflation cycle, which typically lasts between 20 to 40 months [3] Group 2 - The fixed asset investment in the chemical industry turned negative for the first time in May 2025, signaling the end of the capacity expansion cycle, which historically leads to price increases within 6-12 months [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 43.54% of the index, with major companies including Wanhu Chemical, Yilong Co., and Juhua Co. [3] - The chemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sectors [3]