2025年全球气候治理在多重危机中艰难前行。在巴西贝伦召开的第30届联合国气候变化大会肩负推动气 候行动"从共识到落实"的历史使命，在气候资金、公正转型与适应框架等领域取得进展，显著缩短了承 诺与行动之间的距离。但大会在化石能源转型路线图、适应指标可操作性及资金兑现机制等方面仍存在 缺口，进一步折射出全球南北分歧加剧与国家集团间利益碎片化的趋势。 （来源：上观新闻） 贝伦气候大会上的"中国角" 图IC 全球南方国家间协同能力增强。主席国巴西推动关键议题更公平地反映发展中国家诉求，非洲集团、最 不发达国家联盟及小岛国集团在多个领域找到了共同利益诉求，中国则为发展中国家争取更大政策空 间。南方国家间求同存异的集体努力，不仅提升了整体议价能力，也推动气候治理体系更多元、更具代 表性。 在未来合作中，各国应聚焦于制定具体的化石燃料退出路径、构建公正有效的气候金融体系。唯有持续 秉持合作精神，人类才能共同迈向绿色且公平的未来。 （作者于宏源系同济大学政治与国际关系学院教授） 气候资金是气候大会议题的重中之重，南北分歧也集中在此，体现了全球气候治理背后的结构性矛盾。 发展中国家关注资金结构、工具组合和治理权分配上的公平性 ...

Core Points - COP30 has integrated trade issues into its outcome documents, marking a significant development in climate negotiations [1] - The conference emphasized the urgent need for increased climate financing, particularly for developing countries, with a commitment to double adaptation funding by 2035 [4][5] - The absence of the U.S. federal government at COP30 is notable, as it is the first time since the inception of the UN climate conferences that the U.S. did not send a high-level representative [7] Climate Financing - The final document from COP30 calls for developed countries to double their adaptation funding to developing nations by 2025 compared to 2019 levels, and to triple it by 2035 [1][4] - A target of mobilizing at least $1.3 trillion annually for climate funding by 2035 was established, with developed countries expected to contribute at least $300 billion each year [5] Trade Issues - The conference highlighted the importance of sustainable development for developing countries and warned against unilateral actions that could create unfair trade barriers [5] - A new dialogue aimed at enhancing international cooperation on trade was initiated, involving various countries and organizations like the WTO [5] Renewable Energy Investment - Investment in renewable energy has surpassed that in fossil fuels, with renewable investments now being twice that of fossil fuel investments [8] - The commitment to achieving net-zero emissions has been made by over 80% of global economies, indicating a strong shift towards sustainable energy [7] Future Actions - While there was consensus on accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement, no specific plans were made to phase out fossil fuels [9] - The next climate conference (COP31) will be hosted by Turkey, with Australia taking a leadership role in negotiations [9]

Core Points - COP30 concluded with the adoption of the "Global Mobilization: United Cooperation to Address Climate Change Challenges" overall agreement, which mandates wealthy countries to double their climate funding to developing nations by 2035 [1][2] - The agreement aims to provide $1.3 trillion annually to developing countries by 2035, with adaptation funding increasing from $40 billion to $120 billion per year [2][7] - A significant controversy arose from the omission of direct references to "fossil fuels" in the final text, which left many participants disappointed [2][11] Funding and Financial Mechanisms - The overall agreement sets a target of mobilizing at least $300 billion annually for climate action [2][7] - The establishment of a loss and damage fund was discussed, but specific operational details remain unclear [7][8] - The challenge of attracting private capital for climate funding persists, as a significant portion of required funding relies on social capital [8][9] International Cooperation and Agreements - The "Carbon Emission Trading Market Open Alliance" was initiated by China, the EU, and Brazil, aiming to create a cooperative framework for carbon pricing and emissions trading [1][3] - The "Just Transition Work Program" was established, reflecting a strong consensus among parties to create mechanisms for equitable transitions [3][5] - The COP30 emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation in addressing climate change, despite geopolitical tensions [6][7] Challenges and Future Directions - The global energy structure remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, particularly in developing countries, complicating the transition to renewable energy [12][13] - The ambitious goal of tripling renewable energy capacity set at COP28 faces significant obstacles, with many countries lagging behind [12][13] - The upcoming global conference in Colombia aims to advance the roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels, highlighting ongoing efforts despite setbacks at COP30 [11][12]

Core Points - The global climate governance has entered a critical phase, with the world closely monitoring the progress of COP30 [1] - The Secretary-General emphasized the need for political will and flexibility to achieve a balanced solution that addresses emission reduction, adaptation, and financial support [1] - Funding is identified as a key issue for advancing global climate action, with a call for developed countries to mobilize $300 billion annually by 2035 and work towards a financing target of $1.3 trillion per year [1] - Multilateral development banks are urged to play a larger role in expanding climate finance supply, and necessary reforms in the global financial system are needed to better address climate challenges [1]

Core Insights - The COP30 negotiations emphasize the urgent need for trillions in climate funding rather than millions, highlighting a significant gap in financial commitments [1] - The discussions are marked by a stark divide between developed and developing countries regarding financial responsibilities and the allocation of funds [3][4] Group 1: Negotiation Progress and Challenges - The first week of COP30 concluded with a cautious tone, focusing on the extreme urgency for climate funding and the need to mobilize resources, especially towards developing countries [2] - A new draft text was introduced, expressing concerns over the insufficient capitalization of the "loss and damage fund" and the negative signals from the replenishment of global environmental funds [2] - Despite external pressures, the gap between developed and developing nations on financial contributions remains significant, with developed countries emphasizing private sector involvement while developing nations demand clear and sufficient grant-based funding [3] Group 2: Climate Adaptation Funding - A critical issue remains unresolved: whether climate funding can transition from commitments to actual lifelines for affected nations [4] - The UN Climate Change Executive Secretary highlighted that current climate funding is inadequate, unreliable, and unevenly distributed, urging countries to accelerate discussions on funding [4] - The demand for adaptation funding in developing countries is substantial, with a report indicating that by 2035, annual adaptation funding needs will exceed $310 billion, far surpassing the current international public adaptation funding available [7]

Core Points - The COP30 conference, taking place from November 10 to 21 in Belem, Brazil, marks a significant moment for global climate negotiations, coinciding with the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement and focusing on delivering results rather than just negotiating rules [1][2] - The conference aims to establish more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), fulfill funding commitments, and initiate a global carbon market, which are crucial for maintaining the 1.5°C temperature control target [1][2][3] Group 1: Conference Objectives - COP30 is seen as a pivotal moment for implementing the Paris Agreement, with a focus on delivering concrete outcomes, including the submission of 2035 NDCs and the practical establishment of climate financing goals [2][3] - The conference agenda includes the launch of a global carbon market, which is designed to facilitate cost-effective emissions reductions, contingent on fair and transparent rule design [3][4] Group 2: China's Role and Contributions - China is actively participating in COP30, emphasizing the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation in addressing climate change, and has submitted its 2035 NDC to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change [6][7] - The Chinese government has highlighted its achievements in green transformation and is committed to leading developing countries in implementing their NDCs, despite challenges posed by unilateralism and the absence of certain major players in climate negotiations [4][6][7] Group 3: Urgency and Challenges - The urgency of the climate crisis is underscored by recent reports indicating that 2025 could be one of the hottest years on record, emphasizing the need for accelerated action [6] - The conference faces challenges, including the need for deep reforms in climate financing mechanisms to meet the demands of developing countries, as current systems are inadequate [3][4]

Core Points - The COP30 summit, focusing on global climate change, is taking place in Belem, Brazil, from November 6 to 21, with discussions on greenhouse gas reduction and climate funding [2][4][6] - The absence of the U.S. delegation, including President Trump, casts a shadow over the conference, contrasting with the previous Biden administration's participation [4][5] - China, represented by Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, emphasizes its commitment to green transformation and aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels by 2035 [5][6] Group 1: U.S. Participation - The U.S. is the second-largest CO2 emitter globally, and its lack of high-level representation at COP30 is significant [4] - Trump has previously dismissed climate change as a "hoax" and initiated the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, effective January 2026 [5] Group 2: China's Role - China's participation at a high level indicates its seriousness about climate discussions, with Ding Xuexiang stating, "China speaks and acts with integrity" [5] - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for reducing emissions, showcasing its leadership in the climate arena [5] Group 3: European and Other Nations' Involvement - European leaders, including the UK Prime Minister and French President, are expected to attend, although internal political instability may affect their commitment to climate initiatives [6] - Japan's Prime Minister is absent due to domestic priorities, but Japan has set significant emission reduction targets for 2035 and 2040 [6] Group 4: Climate Funding and Goals - A key agenda item is the climate funding arrangement for developing countries, with developed nations expected to contribute $300 billion annually by 2035 [6] - Approximately 100 countries have submitted new targets for emissions reduction by 2035, with a UN report indicating a projected 17% decrease in global emissions compared to 2019 levels [6][7] Group 5: Global Temperature and Natural Disasters - The Copernicus Climate Change Service reports that global average temperatures in 2024 may exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target, highlighting the urgency of international cooperation [7] - Increasing natural disasters, such as droughts and floods, are also on the agenda, particularly affecting regions like the Amazon [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant funding gap for climate adaptation in developing countries, projecting a need of over $310 billion annually by 2035, which is 12 times the current international public adaptation funding flow [1][2] - The upcoming COP30 in Brazil aims to address these funding challenges and set a target of raising $1.3 trillion by 2035 to support climate adaptation efforts [1][7] Funding Gap - By 2035, developing countries will require $310 billion annually for climate adaptation, potentially rising to $365 billion based on national contributions and plans, excluding inflation [2] - In 2023, international public adaptation funding to developing countries was only $26 billion, indicating an annual funding gap of $2.84 to $3.39 billion, which is 12 to 14 times the current funding flow [2][3] - The Glasgow Climate Pact's goal to double international public adaptation funding to approximately $40 billion by 2025 is unlikely to be met under current trends [2] Climate Financing Trends - Only 37 developing countries provided complete data on climate funding, with total funding rising from $537 million in 2021 to $712 million in 2022, averaging $632 million annually [3] - The COP29 established a new climate funding target for developed countries to provide at least $300 billion annually to developing nations by 2035, with a collective goal of reaching $1.3 trillion [3] Financing Roadmap - The "Roadmap from Baku to Belem" aims to achieve the $1.3 trillion funding target by 2035, emphasizing the need for careful implementation to avoid increasing vulnerability in developing countries [7] - The report stresses the importance of grants, concessional financing, and non-debt-creating financial instruments to prevent debt accumulation [7] - The Global Environment Facility and Green Climate Fund have increased support for new projects to nearly $920 million, an 86% increase from the previous five-year average [7] Adaptation Policies and Actions - Approximately 172 out of 192 countries have developed at least one national adaptation policy, strategy, or plan, although 36 of these policies are outdated [8] - Over 1,600 adaptation actions have been reported, primarily in biodiversity, agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure, but few countries have reported actual outcomes [8] - The need for increased adaptation funding from both public and private sources is emphasized, alongside the importance of not increasing the debt burden on vulnerable nations [8]

Group 1: Climate Commitments and NDC Submissions - The COP30 conference is approaching with only six days left, and the submission rate of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is low, with only 64 out of 178 parties submitting new NDC reports, covering about 30% of global emissions in 2019 [1][3] - The United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and its embrace of fossil fuels have raised doubts among developing countries regarding the reliability of commitments made by developed nations, complicating collective action [1][3] - The European Union is facing challenges in submitting its NDC, with its NDC3.0 currently in a difficult position, revealing cracks in its previously high-profile commitment to submit before COP30 [1][3][4] Group 2: China's NDC Submission - China officially submitted its 2035 NDC report on November 3, showcasing its commitment to addressing climate change and aligning with its modernization and ecological goals [2] Group 3: Funding and Investment Challenges - A significant funding gap for climate action in developing countries has been highlighted, with a need for nearly $7 trillion by 2030 to meet NDC targets, while developed countries mobilized less than $600 billion from 2016 to 2022 [12][13] - The COP30 conference aims to address the implementation of climate financing, emphasizing the need for public-private collaboration to meet the urgent demands of climate crises [13][14] - The lack of clear standards and investment pathways for climate adaptation and transition projects is a major barrier to attracting private capital [15][16] Group 4: Role of Public-Private Partnerships - The Asian Development Bank has committed to providing $100 billion in climate financing from 2019 to 2030, but this is insufficient compared to the overall demand for climate funding [17] - Effective public-private partnerships (PPP) are essential for leveraging private capital in climate projects, with governments providing policy support and infrastructure while private sectors handle operational aspects [18]

Core Viewpoint - The COP30, taking place in the Amazon rainforest, aims to transform climate commitments into actionable results, focusing on ambitious climate action plans, funding commitments, and the initiation of a global carbon market to maintain the 1.5°C temperature control target [1][2]. Group 1: Key Highlights of COP30 - COP30 is seen as a critical moment for translating the "Baku Climate Solidarity Pact" from consensus to action, with a focus on three main areas: ensuring equitable and transparent financing, refining international carbon market rules, and encouraging countries to submit more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) [3][4]. - The year 2025 marks a milestone for the Paris Agreement, requiring countries to submit new, more ambitious NDCs. Currently, only 62 countries have submitted their NDCs, representing about 32% of the total parties, indicating a significant gap in ambition and progress [5][6]. - Brazil proposes a voluntary alliance to connect existing carbon pricing systems, which could enhance liquidity and reduce transaction costs in the global carbon market, thus supporting countries in achieving their NDC targets [7][8]. Group 2: Funding and Financial Mechanisms - The annual climate funding target set at $300 billion falls short of the estimated $1.3 trillion needed by developing countries, highlighting a significant funding gap for climate action [9][11]. - Innovative financing mechanisms are necessary to mobilize private capital effectively, including the establishment of frameworks to track financing progress and the promotion of blended finance and green bonds [12]. - The COP30's focus on nature and biodiversity emphasizes the need for integrated policies that link climate action with biodiversity conservation, potentially creating unified financing mechanisms [13]. Group 3: China's Role in Global Climate Governance - China's new NDC aims for a 7%-10% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, showcasing its commitment to global climate leadership and sustainable development [14].