Workflow
十倍股
icon
Search documents
综合行业深度研究:A股十倍股复盘系列制造业篇:国产替代可能是一条挖掘优质成长股的脉络
East Money Securities· 2025-08-12 09:36
Investment Rating - The report provides a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating a cautious approach towards potential investments in the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic substitution may be a pathway to uncovering quality growth stocks, supported by policies like "Made in China 2025" [2][5]. - It identifies that since 2016, there have been 206 tenfold stocks in the A-share market, with a high concentration in sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and food and beverage [5][15]. - The report highlights that high industry prosperity, core competitiveness, and market cycles are critical factors contributing to the emergence of tenfold stocks [5][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Tenfold Stocks - A total of 206 tenfold stocks have been identified in the A-share market since 2016, with significant representation from power equipment (36), pharmaceuticals (30), electronics (29), and food and beverage (15) [5][15]. - The report outlines that the formation of tenfold stocks is driven by industry prosperity, core competitiveness, and market cycles [5][21]. 2. Exploring Manufacturing Industry - The report suggests that domestic substitution could be a key strategy for identifying quality growth stocks, with various policies providing robust support for this transition [2][5]. - It discusses key areas for domestic substitution, including high-end manufacturing (industrial robots and CNC machine tools), medical equipment, high-end processors, and advanced manufacturing [2][5]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies within the manufacturing sector that are positioned to benefit from rapid downstream demand growth [2][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the competitive landscape and the potential for significant growth in the manufacturing midstream as demand increases [5][21].
掘金组合:7月基金重仓股明显跑赢
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-08 05:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market Review: The overall market showed a volatile upward trend in July. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.7%, and the average return of active equity - oriented funds was 4.6%, with institutions slightly outperforming the market. Trading volume increased significantly, with the average daily trading volume of the whole A - shares in July reaching 1.6 trillion yuan (compared to 1.4 trillion yuan from January to June this year). The cycle + growth sectors led, and the dumbbell configuration adjusted. In terms of style, small - cap growth continued to dominate. Fund heavy - holding stocks and the non - changing - face sub - new stock portfolio significantly outperformed, while strong - performing stocks and the quantitative sub - new stock portfolio significantly underperformed [4]. - Market Outlook: Wait for the second half of the physical re - inflation. Focus on ten - bagger stocks, quantitative sub - new stocks, and reversal strategies. The report adheres to the view that before the return of physical inflation, the stock market will be the carrier of surplus liquidity. As inflation returns with the progress of "anti - involution", the bull market may gradually evolve from the first half of financial re - inflation to the second half of physical re - inflation. Some positive changes have occurred, such as the year - on - year growth of M1 (old caliber) turning positive for two consecutive months. If the decline of PPI significantly narrows in the next 6 - 12 months, the repair of corporate EPS will become a new driving force. In the current stage of continuous monetary easing but without confirmed EPS repair, it is recommended to focus on the combination of ten - bagger stocks, quantitative sub - new stocks, and reversal strategies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Growth - type Strategies 3.1.1 Sub - new Stock Combinations - Non - changing - face Sub - new Stock Combination: If a stock's ROE and net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company in the year of listing and the following year are higher than the average of the three years before listing, it is considered that the stock's fundamentals continue to perform well. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 311% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 6% in the past month. The screening criteria include that the net profit growth rate of the year of listing and the following year is greater than the average of the three years before listing, and the ROE of the year of listing and the following year is greater than the average ROE of the three years before listing multiplied by an adjustment coefficient. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Yifang Biotech and Yahong Pharmaceutical [16][17]. - Quantitative Sub - new Stock Combination: Through quantitative back - testing, key factors affecting the performance of sub - new stocks are found. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 324% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 3% in the past month. The screening criteria include ROE (TTM) in the top 40%, net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company in the top 40%, sales gross margin (TTM) in the top 40%, sales expense ratio (TTM) in the top 40%, and total market capitalization less than 20 billion yuan. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Tiancheng Technology and Zhongrun Optics [21][22]. 3.1.2 Ten - bagger Stock Combinations - Ten - bagger Stock Individual Stock Combination: Special genes of ten - bagger stocks are searched from five perspectives: price movement, company, performance, valuation, and industry, and screening criteria for potential ten - bagger stocks in the future are constructed accordingly. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 176% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and no excess return in the past month. The screening criteria involve multiple aspects such as maximum increase, management compensation, major shareholder's pledge ratio, financial indicators, and market capitalization. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Boke New Materials and Jack Co., Ltd. [28][29]. - Ten - bagger Stock Fund Manager Combination: Starting from the perspective of fund managers, their aesthetic preferences and trading behaviors are analyzed to screen out 20 potential ten - bagger stocks. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 44% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 1% in the past month. The screening criteria are based on the frequency of ten - bagger stocks held by funds in the past 10 quarters. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Dongshan Precision and Wuxi AppTec [36][37]. 3.2 Value - type Strategies 3.2.1 High - dividend Stock Combination - The high - dividend strategy is a relatively mature strategy overseas. A high - dividend stock combination constructed in the CSI 300 index has also achieved significant excess returns. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 133% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 2% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 20 stocks with the highest dividend yield from the CSI 300 index constituents, and the portfolio is re - balanced on April 30 every year. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Lu'an Environmental Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [46]. 3.2.2 High Free - cash - flow Return Combination - In the era of a stock economy, companies shift from pursuing scale to pursuing profit and cash flow. A combination is constructed from the perspectives of "high free - cash - flow return" and "low investment and high profit distribution to shareholders". Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 243% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 2% in the past month. The screening criteria involve free - cash - flow return, dividend + share - repurchase ratio, capital expenditure ratio, and net working - capital increase ratio. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Yabao Pharmaceutical and Shantui Construction Machinery [54][55]. 3.2.3 PEG and PB - ROE Combinations - PEG Combination: The PEG strategy comprehensively considers the matching of valuation and growth. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 120% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 2% in the past month. The screening criteria include that the stock's PE/G is lower than the median of its Shenwan primary industry, positive PE, positive net profit growth rate in the past three years and the next two years, low standard deviation of net profit growth rate, and more than one - year listing time. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Tianfu Communication and Tebao Bio - Pharm [65]. - PB - ROE Combination: The PB - ROE strategy also considers the matching of valuation and profitability, and is more applicable to value - type stocks in cyclical and financial real - estate industries. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 63% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 2% in the past month. The screening criteria include that the stock's PB/ROE is lower than the median of its Shenwan primary industry, excluding stocks with negative ROE. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Shengde Xintai and New China Life Insurance [72][73]. 3.3 Momentum - type Strategies 3.3.1 Buying Strong - performing Stocks Combination - The strategy of buying strong - performing stocks is based on the idea of trend investment. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of - 155% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 4% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 100 stocks with the highest monthly gains and exclude ST stocks, and the portfolio is re - balanced on the first trading day of each month. The stocks with high monthly gains in July include GuangShengTang and Shangwei New Materials [81][82]. 3.3.2 Reversal Strategy Combination - The reversal strategy aims to bet on the inflection point of individual stocks, based on the mean - reversion concept. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 190% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 2% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 100 stocks with the highest monthly losses and exclude ST stocks, and the portfolio is re - balanced on the first trading day of each month. The stocks with high monthly losses in July include Yuandao Communication and Shanda Electric Power [92][93]. 3.3.3 Buying Fund Heavy - holding Stocks Combination - The idea of buying fund heavy - holding stocks is to "copy the homework", aiming to build a safety margin by following the market consensus in a weak market. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of - 44% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 7% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 20 stocks held by three types of active equity - oriented funds, and the portfolio is re - balanced at the end of each quarter. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include New H3C Technologies and Zhongji Innolight [100][101].