风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 马克陈 来源：雪球 从7月上旬开始到现在，市场的风格发生了很大的变化。7月份之前，银行股是所有板块中今年涨幅最好的，板块涨幅最高超过22%。而到今天， 银行板块涨幅只有6.8%，远远落后于通信电子半导体等科技AI概念板块。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 面对科技股前段时间大幅度上涨，很多人蠢蠢欲动，包括我自己。 1、如果7月上旬卖掉20%仓位加仓科技股该多好？ 这是我这两天一直在问自己的一个问题。 我的最大仓位是兴业银行，占85%以上。而今年兴业银行股价有一段大幅上涨，股价最高达到25.45元，最高涨幅达到38%，排名银行板块前 列。而我自己的整体仓位的收益率也超过50%。 我问自己的是：为什么在25元的时候不卖出一部分兴业的股票，比如买出100万或者200万，加入科技股？ 如果这样的话，兴业股价下跌带来的收益回撤会减少20-40万。买入科技股，这两个月的收益率可以达到30-50%，还能够增加收益30-100万。 一出一进，可以增加收益50-140万。 如果这样的话，就可以保持今年50%的收益。这个梦想很美好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance capital is increasingly active in the stock market, with a notable rise in shareholding activities, indicating a preference for undervalued, low-volatility, high-dividend, and high-certainty performance assets [1][5]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Activities - In 2023, insurance capital has triggered 22 shareholding events, with a significant increase in activity compared to previous years [5]. - Notable companies targeted by insurance firms include Postal Savings Bank, Agricultural Bank, and China Merchants Bank, among others [2][6]. - Hongkang Life has made its first shareholding move this year by acquiring shares in Honghua Smart Energy, reaching a 5% stake [3]. Group 2: Performance of Target Companies - Honghua Smart Energy has shown significant revenue growth, with net profit expected to reach a five-year high in 2024 [3]. - Peak Technology, another target of insurance capital, reported a revenue of 600 million yuan in 2024, marking a 45.94% year-on-year increase [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Trends - The insurance sector's preference for bank stocks is driven by their low volatility, high dividend yields, and low valuations, with a total of 9 shareholding events in the banking sector this year [6]. - The average dividend yield of stocks targeted for shareholding in 2024 is 4.6%, the highest in recent years, reflecting a strategic shift towards high-dividend investments [7]. - The overall market performance has encouraged insurance companies to increase their capital market activities, with significant net purchases in equity investments [8].

Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is in an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index set to break previous highs, indicating a strong support level below[2] - Recent weeks have seen a phase of capital inflow into technology and internet stocks, providing momentum for the overall market[2] Investment Strategies - Domestic funds, particularly insurance capital, are considering increasing their positions in dividend stocks, with a focus on those with potential for mid-year dividends and relative affordability[2] - There is a growing interest in sectors with performance potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics, which are perceived as undervalued[2] Global Market Observations - The U.S. stock market continues to show resilience, with the Nasdaq leading gains at 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 0.59% amid a backdrop of strong macroeconomic fundamentals[5] - Recent U.S. retail sales data for June showed a surprising month-on-month increase of 0.6%, reversing a two-month decline, driven by a rebound in auto sales[5] Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook remains cautious, with speculation about potential interest rate cuts in July, influenced by inflation nearing target levels and a weaker labor market[6] - Trade policy uncertainties are gradually easing, with recent agreements reducing tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%[6] Capital Flows - Global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $25.728 billion, with the U.S. leading at $13.49 billion, while emerging markets, particularly China, experienced a net outflow of $430 million[12] - The financial sector attracted the most capital inflow, while healthcare and consumer sectors saw significant outflows[12] Performance Metrics - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 5.5% this week, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.8%[7] - Year-to-date performance shows the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 16.2%, while the MSCI Developed Markets Index is up 9.7%[17] Risk Considerations - There are concerns about rising overseas risks, particularly regarding the continued appreciation of U.S. dollar assets, which may divert global funds away from Chinese assets[5] - The potential for a rapid U.S. economic downturn remains a risk, alongside geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating trade policies[14]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and investment strategy of the China Securities Coal Equal-weight Index Fund for the second quarter of 2025, indicating a slight decline in net asset value and a focus on passive index tracking [1][2]. Fund Overview - The fund aims to achieve returns similar to the underlying index with a tracking deviation not exceeding 0.35% on a daily basis and an annual tracking error of no more than 4% [1]. - The fund employs a passive investment strategy by replicating the composition and weight of the underlying index, the China Securities Coal Equal-weight Index [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the reporting period from April 1 to June 30, 2025, the A class share net value growth rate was -1.43%, while the benchmark growth rate was -2.72% [6]. - The C class share net value growth rate was -1.45%, and the E class share net value growth rate was -1.50%, both against the same benchmark [6]. - The fund's total assets at the end of the reporting period included approximately 720 million yuan in stocks, accounting for 93.56% of total assets [6]. Investment Strategy - The fund's investment strategy includes daily tracking of the portfolio's performance against the underlying index and monthly analysis of tracking deviation and tracking error [1][4]. - The fund may utilize stock index futures to enhance investment efficiency and achieve its investment objectives [1][9]. Market Conditions - The underlying index experienced a decline of 2.9% in the second quarter, with a portfolio maintained at approximately 94.5% [5]. - The report notes that coal prices are stabilizing at the bottom range, with a gradual reduction in inventory, which may support future price increases [5]. Asset Allocation - The fund's asset allocation primarily consists of stocks (approximately 720 million yuan) and a smaller portion in bonds (around 34 million yuan) [6][7]. - The mining industry represents the largest sector in the fund's portfolio, accounting for 71.74% of the total asset value [7].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rise in bank stocks, leading to an increase in various ETFs, including the Bosera Hong Kong Dividend ETF, which rose by 0.78% with a trading volume of 109 million yuan [1] - The All-Index Cash Flow ETF Fund increased by 0.70%, with a trading volume of 6.79 million yuan and a turnover rate of 16.42%, indicating active trading [1] - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF saw a modest increase of 0.19% with a trading volume of 932.8 thousand yuan [1] Group 2 - The banking sector continues to show strength, with a 1% increase, and notable gains in individual banks such as Lanzhou Bank (up 2.77%) and Ningbo Bank (up 2.12%) [3] - The performance of the Bosera Hong Kong Dividend ETF is positively influenced by significant gains in its constituent stocks, including a 4.92% rise in Henderson Land and a 4.11% rise in Xinyi Glass [4] - Analysts suggest that the banking sector may see substantial performance improvements in the second half of the year, driven by a combination of volume, price, and risk factors [4][3] Group 3 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index, which the Bosera Hong Kong Dividend ETF closely tracks, aims to reflect the performance of high dividend securities listed in Hong Kong [5] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index account for 28.24% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment strategy [5] - Analysts recommend focusing on structural opportunities in quality city commercial banks and the potential for improved dividend value in the banking sector [4]

Group 1 - Insurance companies are increasingly engaging in shareholding activities, with Ping An Life having raised its stake in China Merchants Bank's H-shares to 15%, triggering Hong Kong's shareholding disclosure requirements [2][3][4] - This marks the third time within six months that Ping An Life has increased its holdings in China Merchants Bank, indicating a strong belief in the bank's long-term investment value [2][4] - As of now, 14 listed companies have been targeted by insurance companies for shareholding activities in 2025, with China Merchants Bank being the only bank to have been targeted three times [2][3] Group 2 - Ping An Life's total investment in China Merchants Bank's H-shares from January 10 to June 17 amounts to approximately 4.61 million shares, costing nearly 21.5 billion HKD [3] - The continuous increase in holdings by Ping An Life is attributed to its recognition of China Merchants Bank's stable operations and long-term growth potential, as the bank leads in profitability, asset quality, and dividend levels within the industry [4] - Analysts suggest that the frequent acquisitions by insurance companies in Hong Kong's state-owned banks are driven by factors such as dividend yield, tax advantages, and regulatory requirements [4] Group 3 - In addition to banks, insurance companies like Great Wall Life are also focusing on public utilities, having recently acquired a 5% stake in Qin Port Co., indicating a broader investment strategy [5][6] - Great Wall Life has also made significant investments in other sectors, including water and energy, reflecting a commitment to infrastructure and essential services [6] - The trend of insurance companies engaging in shareholding activities is driven by the need for stable cash returns and long-term equity investments, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The trading style of southbound funds has shifted from aggressive investments in technology stocks to defensive investments in dividend stocks following tariff disruptions and the first-quarter earnings reports of internet companies [1][5]. Summary by Sections Southbound Fund Activity - From April 27 to May 27, southbound funds purchased dividend assets, particularly bank stocks, amounting to HKD 24.9 billion [2]. - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) reached a new high, with a year-to-date increase of 7.9% and an overall return of nearly 10% when including dividends [2]. Shift in Investment Focus - In the first quarter, the top ten net inflows for southbound funds were primarily in Hang Seng Technology stocks [4]. - Since April, following tariff tensions, the top ten inflows have shifted to high-dividend stocks [5]. Market Conditions - The decline in internet companies' AI revenue and increased competition among major players like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba have led to reduced inflows into technology stocks [6]. - The domestic interest rate cuts and the lowest 10-year government bond yield at 1.65% have prompted a preference for high-dividend stocks as risk appetite decreases [7][9]. Insurance Capital Involvement - The recent trend shows that the inflow of funds into dividend stocks is primarily driven by insurance capital, which seeks to increase allocations to high-yield stocks in a declining interest rate environment [11]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to increase equity allocations, with the cap on equity assets raised from 30% to 35% or higher [11]. Future Projections - Goldman Sachs estimates that southbound funds will have a net inflow of approximately HKD 100 billion into dividend stocks for the year, based on current trends [17]. - The insurance sector is expected to release about RMB 646.1 billion in incremental funds, with 20%-30% likely to flow into the Hong Kong stock market [18][19].