国家海洋环境预报中心将密切关注全球海洋和大气演变动态，及时发布最新监测和预测信息。 10月16日，国家海洋环境预报中心在宁波组织召开2025年秋季厄尔尼诺及气候预测会商会。会议预 计2025年秋冬季赤道中东太平洋将处于中性偏冷状态，不排除形成一次弱拉尼娜事件的可能。 河海大学、国家气候中心、自然资源部第一海洋研究所、自然资源部第二海洋研究所、中国科学院 大气物理研究所等科研和业务单位专家参会。 在全球变暖大背景下，厄尔尼诺—南方涛动（ENSO）的时空特征、全球及我国气候格局都发生了 明显改变，给气候预测工作带来了新的挑战。会议希望通过会商机制和专家的智慧不断探索新的方法， 进一步发展数值模式，丰富预测手段，进行科学、客观和全面的研判，促进学科交叉融合和成果转化。 与会专家主要围绕近期海洋和大气的监测状况以及ENSO动力、统计模式和人工智能预测结果，对 2025年秋冬季ENSO的发展及其对我国未来气候的影响进行探讨，对今年秋冬季我国各区域阶段性极端 灾害性过程以及我国海区海温的预测情况开展讨论。 会议还对今年冬季全球及我国近海海温进行了预测。预计今年冬季，渤海、东海南部海温略偏高， 黄海、东海中部与北部海温偏高 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, it's recommended to focus on low - buying strategies as U.S. soybean oil gets support; for soybean oil, it has stabilized as U.S. soybeans closed higher [1] - Analysts have different expectations for palm oil prices, with some believing prices will remain under pressure due to factors like inventory increase, weak exports, and strong production; while the EU's recognition of MSPO is expected to promote trade [3][4][5] - For soybeans, there are various predictions on production, demand, and related factors in different regions such as the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [6][7][8] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,330 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.93%, and night - time closing price was 9,348 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase. For soybean oil, the daytime closing price was 8,336 yuan/ton with a 0.97% increase, and the night - time was 8,326 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change. For rapeseed oil, daytime was 9,893 yuan/ton with a 1.26% increase, and night - time was 9,902 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. The trading volume of palm oil decreased by 140,395 hands, soybean oil by 144,185 hands, and rapeseed oil increased by 16,828 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,870 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 294 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 23 yuan/ton. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 563 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil was - 994 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09%, and production decreased by 3.17%. Analysts expect Malaysia's September palm oil inventory to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand. The EU's recognition of MSPO will help trade [2][3][5] - **Soybeans in the U.S.**: Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast to 53.3 bushels per acre, but the production is expected to be 4.271 billion bushels. About 22% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of September 9. The estimated soybean crushing volume in August was 182.857 million bushels, down 6.6% from July [6] - **Soybeans in Brazil and Argentina**: Brazil's 2025 soybean production is estimated to be 165.89 million tons, up 0.2% from last month's estimate and 14.5% from last year. Argentina's soybean sales slowed down, with farmers pre - selling 31.29 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans as of September 3 [7][8] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]

美国气象预报中心（CPC）：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）状态继续，太平洋赤道大部分地区海面温度 （SSTs）接近平均水平。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates a tendency to maintain a neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by late autumn and early winter, but confidence in this forecast is low [1] - The probability of ENSO neutral conditions is estimated at 48%, while the probability of La Niña conditions is at 41% [1]

美国气象预报中心（CPC）：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）中性状态可能会持续到九月（概率接近 70%）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming webinar focused on the summer weather outlook in the Americas and Asia, and its potential impact on crops, including updates on U.S. spring planting activities and South American late-season progress [1]. Group 1: Webinar Details - The webinar will cover topics such as the South American seasonal review, early outlook for U.S. spring planting weather, U.S. planting and production outlook, ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and its global impacts, and summer weather in Asia [4]. - The event is scheduled for April 16, 2025, at 09:00 AM Beijing time and will be conducted in English [4]. Group 2: Company Offerings - LSEG provides market insights, data management solutions, and seamless trading execution capabilities to enhance competitiveness in commodity trading [7]. - The company emphasizes the importance of obtaining accurate information at the right time and format for successful commodity trading, utilizing structured data from various sources [9]. - LSEG offers tools, fundamentals, forecasts, alternative data, and the latest news to help clients excel in the competitive landscape of commodity trading [10]. Group 3: Commodity Trading Solutions - LSEG's energy trading solutions cover a global ecosystem of oil, gas, electricity, coal, and carbon assets, supported by exclusive partnerships and redistribution agreements with major research firms [12]. - The company has developed a comprehensive data and analysis framework for metal trading, leveraging machine learning and AI to predict market trends [13]. - LSEG's agricultural trading solutions utilize robust fundamental data, alternative data, weather tracking, and satellite imagery to forecast market price trends [15].