南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告 ——高纬度产区逐步进入停割期，印尼与马来西亚近期降雨扰动加大 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月16日 一、本周重要气象提示 中长期 气候动态 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO） ：目前Nino3.4指数-0.7（-0.2），南方涛动指数（SOI）为+2.7 ，拉尼娜现象环比增强，根据NOAA预测弱拉尼娜现象（-0.9~-0.5）或持续到 2025 年 12 月至 2026 年 2 月，并可能在 2026 年 1 月至 3 月过渡到 ENSO 中性。 印度洋偶极子（IOD）： DMI指数为−0.63（-0.17），印度洋偶极子（IOD）环比加强，从印度 洋到印度尼西亚西部的水汽流量增多，印尼周边降雨概率提升。 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）： 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）预计处于第1阶段，因此对印尼地区雨云 增长作用较小，月底将向东印度洋发展。 中国 产区 云南产区：云南产区受降温影响，目前接近完全停割，目前产出胶水稀少，原料以胶块为主，后 期云南德宏、 ...

南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告 ——东南亚产区洪涝影响有所消退，整体雨水环比减少 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月09日 一、本周重要气象提示 中国 产区 云南产区：云南产区目前处于停割前过渡阶段，据悉目前产区已有部分停割。从11月底开始，西 双版纳、普洱等主产区最低气温多低于10℃，未来一周气温有所回升但月底将有新一轮冷空气， 将加速抑制胶树产胶并促进落叶，对产胶干含量和总产量有不利影响。云南产区近期和未来多晴 朗天气。未来密切关注产地停割进程。 海南产区：海南目前处于停割前期的上量冲刺阶段，目前气温尚且适宜，月底或迎来降温天气。 近期降雨减少，温差扩大有利于产胶割胶。未来一周，海南儋州、南部产区多云间晴为主，局部 周中有小到中雨，影响小。 中南 半岛 产区 泰国产区：11月泰国各产区月度降雨同比均偏多。12月开篇，泰国北部和东北部少量雨水，割 胶顺畅。南部前期洪涝灾害影响供应端，目前强降雨消退，洪灾缓解。未来泰国除南部产区外， 零星降水为主，南部未来一周将迎来新一轮降雨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of tight supply, leading to steady price increases, with optimistic market sentiment supporting further price growth [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global rubber production is expected to decrease in December due to seasonal factors, increasing reliance on imports in China [2]. - Weather conditions, including the La Niña phenomenon, are impacting rubber harvesting negatively, contributing to lower supply and profits for domestic producers [2]. Price Trends - International rubber prices are on the rise, with Thai rubber water priced at 56.6 THB/kg and cup rubber at 52.1 THB/kg, both near five-year highs [3]. - Domestic prices in Yunnan are also increasing, with rubber water at 14,100 CNY/ton and rubber blocks at 14,300 CNY/ton, reflecting a similar upward trend [3]. Consumption and Market Sentiment - The automotive sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies boosting sales and exports, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [4]. - Market sentiment is turning optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio (PCR) to 46%, the lowest in three years, suggesting a bullish outlook on rubber prices [5][6]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised against single-direction put options due to low success rates and high risks [7]. - Suggested strategies include covered call writing for steady income, long positions with protective puts for risk management, and bull spreads to control costs while maintaining a bullish stance [8].

Core Insights - The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center held a meeting on October 16 to discuss the climate predictions for the fall of 2025, indicating a neutral to slightly cool state in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, with a possibility of a weak La Niña event [1] - The meeting involved experts from various research and operational institutions, focusing on the challenges posed by global warming on climate prediction and the need for innovative methods and interdisciplinary collaboration [1] Group 1 - The meeting aimed to explore new methods for climate prediction, emphasizing the development of numerical models and the integration of artificial intelligence in forecasting [1] - Experts discussed the monitoring status of the ocean and atmosphere, as well as the dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its potential impacts on China's future climate [1] - Predictions for the winter of this year indicated slightly higher sea temperatures in the Bohai Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea, with implications for marine aquaculture and ecological environments [2] Group 2 - The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center will closely monitor global ocean and atmospheric changes and provide timely updates on monitoring and prediction information [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, it's recommended to focus on low - buying strategies as U.S. soybean oil gets support; for soybean oil, it has stabilized as U.S. soybeans closed higher [1] - Analysts have different expectations for palm oil prices, with some believing prices will remain under pressure due to factors like inventory increase, weak exports, and strong production; while the EU's recognition of MSPO is expected to promote trade [3][4][5] - For soybeans, there are various predictions on production, demand, and related factors in different regions such as the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [6][7][8] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,330 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.93%, and night - time closing price was 9,348 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase. For soybean oil, the daytime closing price was 8,336 yuan/ton with a 0.97% increase, and the night - time was 8,326 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change. For rapeseed oil, daytime was 9,893 yuan/ton with a 1.26% increase, and night - time was 9,902 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. The trading volume of palm oil decreased by 140,395 hands, soybean oil by 144,185 hands, and rapeseed oil increased by 16,828 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,870 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 294 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 23 yuan/ton. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 563 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil was - 994 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09%, and production decreased by 3.17%. Analysts expect Malaysia's September palm oil inventory to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand. The EU's recognition of MSPO will help trade [2][3][5] - **Soybeans in the U.S.**: Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast to 53.3 bushels per acre, but the production is expected to be 4.271 billion bushels. About 22% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of September 9. The estimated soybean crushing volume in August was 182.857 million bushels, down 6.6% from July [6] - **Soybeans in Brazil and Argentina**: Brazil's 2025 soybean production is estimated to be 165.89 million tons, up 0.2% from last month's estimate and 14.5% from last year. Argentina's soybean sales slowed down, with farmers pre - selling 31.29 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans as of September 3 [7][8] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]

Core Insights - The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status continues, indicating ongoing climatic changes that may impact various sectors [1] - Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in most of the equatorial Pacific are near average levels, suggesting a stable climatic condition for the time being [1] Group 1 - The current ENSO status may influence agricultural yields and commodity prices due to potential weather pattern changes [1] - Near-average SSTs could lead to predictable weather patterns, which may benefit industries reliant on stable climatic conditions [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates a tendency to maintain a neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by late autumn and early winter, but confidence in this forecast is low [1] - The probability of ENSO neutral conditions is estimated at 48%, while the probability of La Niña conditions is at 41% [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates that the neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to persist until September, with a probability close to 70% [1] Group 1 - The CPC's forecast suggests a significant likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions, which may impact various sectors, including agriculture and energy [1] - The persistence of neutral ENSO conditions could influence weather patterns and climate-related risks for businesses [1] - The 70% probability indicates a strong confidence in the forecast, which may guide investment strategies in climate-sensitive industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming webinar focused on the summer weather outlook in the Americas and Asia, and its potential impact on crops, including updates on U.S. spring planting activities and South American late-season progress [1]. Group 1: Webinar Details - The webinar will cover topics such as the South American seasonal review, early outlook for U.S. spring planting weather, U.S. planting and production outlook, ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and its global impacts, and summer weather in Asia [4]. - The event is scheduled for April 16, 2025, at 09:00 AM Beijing time and will be conducted in English [4]. Group 2: Company Offerings - LSEG provides market insights, data management solutions, and seamless trading execution capabilities to enhance competitiveness in commodity trading [7]. - The company emphasizes the importance of obtaining accurate information at the right time and format for successful commodity trading, utilizing structured data from various sources [9]. - LSEG offers tools, fundamentals, forecasts, alternative data, and the latest news to help clients excel in the competitive landscape of commodity trading [10]. Group 3: Commodity Trading Solutions - LSEG's energy trading solutions cover a global ecosystem of oil, gas, electricity, coal, and carbon assets, supported by exclusive partnerships and redistribution agreements with major research firms [12]. - The company has developed a comprehensive data and analysis framework for metal trading, leveraging machine learning and AI to predict market trends [13]. - LSEG's agricultural trading solutions utilize robust fundamental data, alternative data, weather tracking, and satellite imagery to forecast market price trends [15].