Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also intensifying, increasing the probability of rainfall in Indonesia and its surrounding areas [1]. - High - latitude rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the dry season, which will affect rubber production [1]. - Weather conditions such as rainfall and temperature in various rubber - producing areas around the world will impact the progress of rubber tapping and production. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings - **Climate Dynamics** - The Nino3.4 index is - 0.7 (- 0.2), and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is + 2.7. The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and it may last until December 2025 to February 2026 and transition to ENSO neutral from January to March 2026 [1]. - The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is - 0.63 (- 0.17), indicating a strengthening of the IOD and an increased probability of rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be in Phase 1, with little effect on the growth of rain clouds in Indonesia, and it will develop towards the East Indian Ocean by the end of the month [1]. - **China's Producing Areas** - Yunnan: Affected by cooling, it is approaching full suspension of tapping. Output in the northern part will be limited by low - temperature, and the southern part will have a slight temperature increase but limited output [1]. - Hainan: The temperature is currently suitable. There has been sporadic rainfall recently, and the dry content of glue has decreased. Tapping is expected to gradually stop in late December. There will be less rain and a temperature increase in the next week, followed by another temperature drop [1]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas** - Thailand: The north and northeast have less rain, and the south has significantly less rain in December compared to November, with little impact on raw material output. The north and northeast will cool down at the end of the month, and some areas may gradually stop tapping [2]. - Vietnam: Precipitation in November was higher than average. The south will have less rain, and the central - east will be slightly affected by showers [2]. - Cambodia: Precipitation in November increased year - on - year. There will be less rain in the future, but the temperature drop at the end of the month may reduce output [2]. - Myanmar: There will be less rain in the future, and the surface soil moisture in the south is low. There will be a significant temperature drop at the end of the month [2]. - Laos: It is currently in the peak - production period. Less rain and a temperature drop will slightly affect output [2]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas** - Indonesia: The La Nina phenomenon and the Indian Ocean Dipole are strengthening, increasing the probability of rainfall. The first half - week will have mostly cloudy to light rain, with heavy rain possible in some areas, and the rain will weaken in the second half - week. The impact of rainfall on tapping in December is moderate, weaker than in November [4]. - Malaysia: The Malay Peninsula is in the peak of the rainy season. Rainfall from November to early December affected tapping, and the rain has weakened in the past two weeks but still has an impact [4]. - Philippines: Rainfall in November was slightly higher than the historical average. Rainfall in December decreased, and the temperature is suitable for tapping [4]. - **South Asian Producing Areas** - India: There was intermittent rain in southern Kerala last week due to a tropical depression. Areas in the southwest and northeast had little rain. Low temperatures in Maharashtra and the northeast may lead to a gradual stop of tapping [5]. - Sri Lanka: Floods have receded, and production is recovering [5]. - **West African Producing Areas** - Cote d'Ivoire: It is gradually emerging from the secondary rainy season. Cumulative precipitation in November increased year - on - year and is approaching normal levels. There were local showers in the past week, slightly affecting tapping [5]. 3.2 Summary of Rainfall Data in Producing Areas - The report provides monthly cumulative precipitation, year - on - year changes, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly differences, and forecast precipitation for the current and next weeks in major natural rubber producing areas. For example, in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna, the monthly cumulative precipitation is 0.1 mm, a year - on - year decrease of 98% [6]. 3.3 Monitoring of Sudden Disasters in Producing Areas - There is a tropical depression disturbance in western Indonesia, which may increase rainfall in Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula [8]. - The weather in southern Thailand has improved, and the impact of floods has subsided. Short - term heavy rainfall in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra in Indonesia requires attention to secondary disaster risks [9]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - The report presents precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, as well as various meteorological indicators such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomalies, temperature comparisons, and average wind speed for each major rubber - producing area [11][17][38]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - About 80% of the world's natural rubber is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Vietnam. Thailand accounts for about 1/4 of the planting area and over 30% of the global output, while Indonesia accounts for about 1/5 of the planting area and 15% of the output. Cote d'Ivoire accounts for over 10% of the output [198]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber Trees and the Impact of Weather** - The phenological period of rubber trees includes "leaf - falling period - budding period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". New leaves are sensitive to weather and disasters before maturity, which can affect the tree's latex - producing ability. Short - term supply is affected by weather, and long - term supply depends on planting area and tree - age structure [207]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - Global natural rubber supply is seasonal, with a high - production period from September to November and a low - production period from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times vary by latitude, with higher - latitude areas having earlier tapping starts and shorter tapping periods [209].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the impact of weather on natural rubber production in major global producing areas, with a particular emphasis on rainfall. It provides detailed weather forecasts and rainfall data for various regions, highlighting how weather conditions such as temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events can affect rubber tree growth, tapping progress, and overall production [2][203]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings - **China**: Yunnan is in the pre - stop - tapping transition, with low temperatures and a coming cold snap that may affect production. Hainan is in the pre - stop - tapping up - volume stage, with suitable temperatures and reduced rainfall conducive to tapping [2]. - **Thailand**: Northern and northeastern regions have light rain and smooth tapping. The southern region's flood has eased, but new rainfall is expected [2]. - **Vietnam**: Rainfall decreased significantly in the coming week after being affected by rain in November [2]. - **Other Regions**: Different regions such as Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Asia, and West Africa have their own unique weather conditions and impacts on rubber production [5][6]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides a table of weekly precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas, including current month cumulative precipitation, year - on - year change, last week's cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, and precipitation forecasts for this week and the next week [8][10]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - Tropical low - pressure activity is low in the Northern Hemisphere winter, but there are low - pressure disturbances in western Indonesia and the Indian Ocean, which may bring rainfall [11]. - Floods in southern Thailand and the Malay Peninsula have subsided, but some areas still have high water levels [12]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **China**: Detailed precipitation and soil humidity forecasts for Yunnan and Hainan, as well as tracking of various meteorological indicators such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, and soil humidity anomalies [21][44]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: Similar to China, it includes precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, as well as tracking of meteorological indicators for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [64][94]. - **Malay Archipelago**: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, along with tracking of meteorological indicators for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [120][143]. - **South Asia**: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, and tracking of meteorological indicators for India and Sri Lanka [148][170]. - **West Africa**: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, and tracking of meteorological indicators for the Ivory Coast [173][180]. 3.5 Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas - Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia (about 80%), with Thailand having about 1/4 of the planting area and over 30% of the global output, and Indonesia having about 1/5 of the planting area and 15% of the output. The Ivory Coast accounts for over 10% of the output [194]. 3.6 Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather - The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages, and the new leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and pests. Weather affects rubber production in different periods, and different diseases and pests may occur in each stage [203][204]. 3.7 Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas - Global natural rubber supply has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March. The opening and closing times of tapping vary by region due to climate differences [205].

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of tight supply, leading to steady price increases, with optimistic market sentiment supporting further price growth [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global rubber production is expected to decrease in December due to seasonal factors, increasing reliance on imports in China [2]. - Weather conditions, including the La Niña phenomenon, are impacting rubber harvesting negatively, contributing to lower supply and profits for domestic producers [2]. Price Trends - International rubber prices are on the rise, with Thai rubber water priced at 56.6 THB/kg and cup rubber at 52.1 THB/kg, both near five-year highs [3]. - Domestic prices in Yunnan are also increasing, with rubber water at 14,100 CNY/ton and rubber blocks at 14,300 CNY/ton, reflecting a similar upward trend [3]. Consumption and Market Sentiment - The automotive sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies boosting sales and exports, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [4]. - Market sentiment is turning optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio (PCR) to 46%, the lowest in three years, suggesting a bullish outlook on rubber prices [5][6]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised against single-direction put options due to low success rates and high risks [7]. - Suggested strategies include covered call writing for steady income, long positions with protective puts for risk management, and bull spreads to control costs while maintaining a bullish stance [8].

Core Insights - The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center held a meeting on October 16 to discuss the climate predictions for the fall of 2025, indicating a neutral to slightly cool state in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, with a possibility of a weak La Niña event [1] - The meeting involved experts from various research and operational institutions, focusing on the challenges posed by global warming on climate prediction and the need for innovative methods and interdisciplinary collaboration [1] Group 1 - The meeting aimed to explore new methods for climate prediction, emphasizing the development of numerical models and the integration of artificial intelligence in forecasting [1] - Experts discussed the monitoring status of the ocean and atmosphere, as well as the dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its potential impacts on China's future climate [1] - Predictions for the winter of this year indicated slightly higher sea temperatures in the Bohai Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea, with implications for marine aquaculture and ecological environments [2] Group 2 - The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center will closely monitor global ocean and atmospheric changes and provide timely updates on monitoring and prediction information [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, it's recommended to focus on low - buying strategies as U.S. soybean oil gets support; for soybean oil, it has stabilized as U.S. soybeans closed higher [1] - Analysts have different expectations for palm oil prices, with some believing prices will remain under pressure due to factors like inventory increase, weak exports, and strong production; while the EU's recognition of MSPO is expected to promote trade [3][4][5] - For soybeans, there are various predictions on production, demand, and related factors in different regions such as the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [6][7][8] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,330 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.93%, and night - time closing price was 9,348 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase. For soybean oil, the daytime closing price was 8,336 yuan/ton with a 0.97% increase, and the night - time was 8,326 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change. For rapeseed oil, daytime was 9,893 yuan/ton with a 1.26% increase, and night - time was 9,902 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. The trading volume of palm oil decreased by 140,395 hands, soybean oil by 144,185 hands, and rapeseed oil increased by 16,828 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,870 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 294 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 23 yuan/ton. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 563 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil was - 994 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09%, and production decreased by 3.17%. Analysts expect Malaysia's September palm oil inventory to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand. The EU's recognition of MSPO will help trade [2][3][5] - **Soybeans in the U.S.**: Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast to 53.3 bushels per acre, but the production is expected to be 4.271 billion bushels. About 22% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of September 9. The estimated soybean crushing volume in August was 182.857 million bushels, down 6.6% from July [6] - **Soybeans in Brazil and Argentina**: Brazil's 2025 soybean production is estimated to be 165.89 million tons, up 0.2% from last month's estimate and 14.5% from last year. Argentina's soybean sales slowed down, with farmers pre - selling 31.29 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans as of September 3 [7][8] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]

Core Insights - The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status continues, indicating ongoing climatic changes that may impact various sectors [1] - Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in most of the equatorial Pacific are near average levels, suggesting a stable climatic condition for the time being [1] Group 1 - The current ENSO status may influence agricultural yields and commodity prices due to potential weather pattern changes [1] - Near-average SSTs could lead to predictable weather patterns, which may benefit industries reliant on stable climatic conditions [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates a tendency to maintain a neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by late autumn and early winter, but confidence in this forecast is low [1] - The probability of ENSO neutral conditions is estimated at 48%, while the probability of La Niña conditions is at 41% [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates that the neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to persist until September, with a probability close to 70% [1] Group 1 - The CPC's forecast suggests a significant likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions, which may impact various sectors, including agriculture and energy [1] - The persistence of neutral ENSO conditions could influence weather patterns and climate-related risks for businesses [1] - The 70% probability indicates a strong confidence in the forecast, which may guide investment strategies in climate-sensitive industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming webinar focused on the summer weather outlook in the Americas and Asia, and its potential impact on crops, including updates on U.S. spring planting activities and South American late-season progress [1]. Group 1: Webinar Details - The webinar will cover topics such as the South American seasonal review, early outlook for U.S. spring planting weather, U.S. planting and production outlook, ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and its global impacts, and summer weather in Asia [4]. - The event is scheduled for April 16, 2025, at 09:00 AM Beijing time and will be conducted in English [4]. Group 2: Company Offerings - LSEG provides market insights, data management solutions, and seamless trading execution capabilities to enhance competitiveness in commodity trading [7]. - The company emphasizes the importance of obtaining accurate information at the right time and format for successful commodity trading, utilizing structured data from various sources [9]. - LSEG offers tools, fundamentals, forecasts, alternative data, and the latest news to help clients excel in the competitive landscape of commodity trading [10]. Group 3: Commodity Trading Solutions - LSEG's energy trading solutions cover a global ecosystem of oil, gas, electricity, coal, and carbon assets, supported by exclusive partnerships and redistribution agreements with major research firms [12]. - The company has developed a comprehensive data and analysis framework for metal trading, leveraging machine learning and AI to predict market trends [13]. - LSEG's agricultural trading solutions utilize robust fundamental data, alternative data, weather tracking, and satellite imagery to forecast market price trends [15].