1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period is a crucial five - year period that connects the past and the future, with special significance for high - quality development and achieving the 2035 visionary goals [10][11]. - China's economic development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period faces a complex and uncertain internal and external environment. Externally, there are challenges such as global economic slowdown, intensified great - power competition, and supply - chain reconstruction; internally, there are issues like economic growth slowdown, effective demand shortage, and population aging [13]. - To promote high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, five major policy levers should be grasped, including developing new quality productive forces, expanding domestic demand, deepening income distribution reform, building a unified national market, and reshaping the incentive - restraint mechanism [67][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Historical Position - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is at the historical intersection of the "Two Centenary Goals" and is a foundational stage for the new journey of building a modern socialist country. It has a "connecting - the - past - and - future" role, with tasks of "attacking and implementing" and coincides with many major historical nodes [10][11]. 3.2 Ten Judgments on the Internal and External Environment of China's Economic Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period 3.2.1 External Environment - Global economic uncertainty increases, and the global economy may enter a deep adjustment period of slow growth and declining potential output. The "15th Five - Year Plan" may face a "high - risk, high - volatility" global economic environment with weak growth momentum [14][16]. - A multi - polar trade system is taking shape. China's voice in global economic and trade is expected to further increase, but trade frictions with non - US countries may intensify [20][21]. - Sino - US competition remains the core variable affecting the global political and economic landscape, evolving towards "normalization" and "complexity." The competition for scientific and technological and industrial discourse power is crucial [31][32]. - Supply - chain reconstruction has entered the second half, with geopolitics and strategic security becoming the main lines of global supply - chain layout [35]. - China has many favorable factors to actively shape the external environment and is not completely passive in the face of external pressure [39][40]. 3.2.2 Internal Environment - The official "4.17%" may be the minimum growth target for the "15th Five - Year Plan," and the expected economic growth range is around 4.5% - 5% [41]. - The transformation of old and new driving forces will accelerate the adjustment of China's industrial structure. The real estate industry may be in the transition from the bottom to a new cycle, and the urgency of new quality productive forces playing a leading role has increased significantly [45][47]. - The population structure may gradually transition to deep aging, and the pressure of "getting old before getting rich" poses more severe challenges to the pension system, medical resources, and elderly care services [53]. - Reform has entered the "deep - water zone," and the implementation of some reform tasks faces significant resistance [57]. - "Debt reduction in development" should be implemented, focusing on structural optimization and efficiency improvement to enhance the sustainability of fiscal debt [61][63]. 3.3 Five Levers to Promote China's High - Quality Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period - **Lever 1: Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading** "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions prioritize building a modern industrial system. China's industrial structure has problems such as traditional industries in urgent need of transformation and modern manufacturing being "large but not strong." R & D investment is still relatively low, and there are "bottleneck" issues in key areas. "Full - chain" key core technology research in key areas is necessary, and industry "involution" should be avoided [69][70][71]. - **Lever 2: Expanding Domestic Demand and Boosting Consumption** The importance of "expanding domestic demand" has increased. Insufficient effective demand is the core obstacle to the domestic cycle. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, direct subsidies to residents may be increased, and investment growth is expected to be stable, especially ensuring that the proportion of private investment does not continue to decline [5][8]. - **Lever 3: Deepening Income Distribution Reform and Improving the Social Security System** "People's livelihood" is a key word in the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions. Income distribution reform, household registration system reform, and improvement of the social security system are expected to be key tasks [6]. - **Lever 4: Continuously Promoting Anti - involution and Building a Unified National Market** Building a unified national market is a systematic project. The implementation of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee's reform tasks is crucial, especially optimizing the local government assessment and incentive mechanism and solving the problem of China's economic growth path dependence [8]. - **Lever 5: Remodeling the Incentive - Restraint Mechanism and Releasing the Vitality of Micro - entities** The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions emphasize "combining strict management with kindness and balancing incentives and restraints." It is expected to optimize the local assessment and statistical system, promote fiscal and tax system reform, and improve the business environment for enterprises [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In Q3 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "base investment") industry policies continued to develop in depth on the basis of the dual - track approach of "controlling new debts and resolving existing ones" and "promoting development". The "package debt - resolution" policy was further refined, the debt management became more standardized and transparent, the process of platform exit accelerated, and a series of policies were introduced to support the base investment enterprises in expanding effective investment and promoting transformation. The implementation of these policies effectively mitigated local government debt risks, but challenges such as the management of operating debts of base investment enterprises still remained [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Review - **"Package Debt - Resolution" Policy Deeply Refined**: As of August 2025, 4 trillion yuan of the one - time increase of 6 trillion yuan in special debt quota had been issued, and the 2 trillion yuan quota for implicit debt replacement in 2025 was basically used up. 800 billion yuan was allocated from new local government special bonds to support debt resolution. Financial debt - resolution also accelerated, and measures to clean up arrears to enterprises were strengthened. Debt management was more standardized, with stricter new bond issuance review and upgraded debt monitoring [4][6]. - **Dynamic Adjustment of High - Risk Debt Areas and Accelerated Platform Exit**: As of June 2025, over 60% of financing platforms had exited. Some provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had achieved or were applying to exit high - risk debt areas [7]. - **Support for Base Investment Enterprises to Expand Effective Investment**: In 2025, the new special bond quota was increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. As of September 30, 2025, 3.6 trillion yuan of new special bonds had been issued, completing 82% of the annual quota. A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan was arranged, and policies to support the construction and operation of PPP stock projects were introduced [8][10]. - **Accelerated Stock Asset Revitalization and Strengthened Transformation Policy Guidance**: A series of policies were introduced to guide the industrial transformation of base investment enterprises, and local governments continued to deepen the revitalization of state - owned assets [11]. Policy Main Impacts - **Accelerated Implementation of Local Government Replacement Bonds and Mitigated Debt Risks**: As of September 30, 2025, local government new bonds had completed 81.92% of the annual quota, and replacement bonds for implicit debt had completed 99.31% of the annual quota. The scope of special bond investment expanded, which was expected to relieve the investment and financing pressure of base investment enterprises [17]. - **Tightened Supply of Urban Investment Bonds**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total issuance of urban investment bonds decreased by 9.53% year - on - year, and the net financing was negative. The stock of urban investment bonds decreased by 6.38% compared with the end of 2024 [18]. - **Adjusted Financing Channels and Optimized Debt Structure of Base Investment Enterprises**: Under the influence of policies, the proportion of credit financing of base investment enterprises increased, while the proportion of bond financing and non - standard financing decreased [19]. - **Reduced Number of Risk Events of Base Investment Enterprises, but Attention Needed for Operating Debts and Interest Payments**: The number of non - standard risk events of base investment enterprises decreased compared with 2024, but the operating debts, interest payments, and government - occupied funds of base investment enterprises still needed attention [20]. - **Phased Achievements in "Exiting Platform" and Transformation of Base Investment Enterprises**: Since the implementation of the "package debt - resolution" policy, about 658 base investment enterprises declared themselves as "market - oriented business entities", and more than 110 base investment enterprises announced to exit the platform list in the first three quarters of 2025 [21]. Industry Development Expectations and Opportunities - **Continuous Implementation of "Package Debt - Resolution" Policy with Regional Differences**: The "package debt - resolution" policy will continue to be implemented, but there are regional differences in debt - resolution progress and risks. Future policies are expected to be more refined and differentiated [23]. - **Operating Debts to Become the Key Focus and Support for Enterprise Transformation**: As implicit debts are gradually resolved, operating debts will become the key focus. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will help base investment enterprises open up new investment spaces and promote transformation [26]. - **Accelerated Transformation of Base Investment Enterprises with Risks to Be Alerted and Attention to Government - Enterprise Relationship**: The transformation of base investment enterprises may bring compliance and credit risks. The change in the government - enterprise relationship of base investment enterprises in the post - implicit debt era needs continuous attention [29]. Conclusion The base investment industry policies continued to develop in depth, effectively mitigating local government debt risks. However, the operating debts, interest payments, and government - occupied funds of base investment enterprises still need attention. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide opportunities for enterprise transformation, but regional differences exist. Risks in the transformation process and changes in the government - enterprise relationship need to be continuously monitored [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Debt Management Division by the Ministry of Finance is a key measure to implement a long-term government debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][6]. Group 1: Establishment of the Debt Management Division - The Debt Management Division has been added to the Ministry of Finance's organizational structure, indicating a shift towards centralized management of government debt [1][2]. - Prior to the establishment of this division, government debt management functions were dispersed across various departments, leading to inefficiencies and high coordination costs [5][6]. - The new division will unify the management of central and local, explicit and implicit, domestic and foreign debts, enhancing management efficiency and professionalism [7][8]. Group 2: Responsibilities and Functions - The main responsibilities of the Debt Management Division include formulating and executing domestic debt management policies, managing government debt issuance and repayment, and monitoring hidden debt risks [6][7]. - The division is structured to cover all aspects of debt management, creating a closed-loop management system that includes regulation, issuance, usage, repayment, monitoring, and accountability [7][8]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The establishment of a unified management body is expected to facilitate a sustainable path towards "debt management in development" by creating a long-term mechanism and dynamic debt monitoring system [8][9]. - There is an emphasis on linking local government debt with land transfer income and state-owned asset operation revenues, exploring mechanisms that determine spending based on income and effectiveness [9][10]. - The division aims to strengthen collaboration between central and local debt management institutions, forming a vertical management chain [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "infrastructure investment") industry continued to implement the working idea of "debt resolution in development", promoting debt risk resolution through debt - end "pressure relief" and investment - end "oxygen increase", and enhancing the development momentum of infrastructure investment enterprises and local economies [2]. - The short - term policy benefits in the infrastructure investment industry conflict with the long - term "weak" fundamentals. Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the resolution of the large - scale operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises still takes time. In the context of accelerating platform exit and transformation, credit risks and regional risk resonance should be guarded against, and the evolution of the government - enterprise relationship needs to be dynamically examined and evaluated [17][18]. - In the second half of 2025, new investment space may be opened, which is conducive to accelerating the transformation and development of infrastructure investment enterprises and promoting the re - balance between "debt resolution and development" [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **New special bonds reach a new high and support scope changes**: In 2025, the new special bond quota increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 12.8%, with 800 billion yuan earmarked for resolving existing implicit debts. As of June 29, 2112.705 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for 48.02% of the annual quota. The support scope has expanded, including real estate acquisition, idle land revitalization, emerging industry infrastructure, and urban renewal projects. The "self - review and self - issuance" mechanism can improve the efficiency of special bond issuance and use [3][4]. - **Local government debt risk resolution advances**: In the first half of the year, large - scale debt replacement was carried out. Refinancing bonds were issued in advance, reaching 2.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. Special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts totaled 1795.938 billion yuan, nearly 90% of the annual 2 - trillion - yuan quota. Many places promoted financial debt resolution and explored emergency fund support. Central authorities emphasized clearing government arrears, and the Ministry of Finance announced six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability to prevent new implicit debts [5]. - **Dynamic optimization of debt risk list management and enterprise transformation**: The government emphasized the dynamic adjustment of high - risk debt area lists and supported the opening of new investment space. Regulatory authorities strengthened the supervision of urban investment bond issuance, guiding infrastructure investment enterprises to exit platforms and transform into industries [6]. - **Optimization and innovation of public investment models**: The State Council issued a guiding opinion on promoting the high - quality development of government investment funds. The PPP model was innovated, and local governments explored new practices such as the public infrastructure leasing mechanism. Many provinces issued incentive policies for infrastructure REITs [7][8]. 3.2 Policy Main Impacts - **Relief of short - term solvency pressure**: As of June 29, 2025, local government bonds' new issuance totaled 2558.122 billion yuan, 49.19% of the annual quota, and refinancing bonds totaled 2877.486 billion yuan, with 1795.938 billion yuan used for replacing implicit debts, improving the refinancing environment of infrastructure investment enterprises [10]. - **Expansion of special bond investment areas and increased regional differentiation**: As of June 29, 2025, new special bonds of 2112.705 billion yuan were issued, 48.02% of the annual quota. The issuance progress was faster than the previous year. However, the issuance was more differentiated among regions [11]. - **Tightening of urban investment bond supply**: In the first half of 2025, 4339 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2808.708 billion yuan and a net financing of - 76.36 billion yuan. The net financing decreased year - on - year, and the supply continued to tighten [11]. - **Decline in financing costs**: In the first half of 2025, the weighted average issuance interest rate of national urban investment bonds was 2.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41 percentage points [12]. - **Optimization of financing channels**: The proportion of credit financing of urban investment enterprises increased, while the proportion of bond financing decreased, and the scale and proportion of non - standard financing both declined [13]. - **Convergence of non - standard and bill risks**: In the first half of 2025, there were 16 urban investment non - standard risk events, and the number of new bond - issuing urban investment enterprises entering the continuous overdue list from January to June was 9, showing a significant decrease [14]. - **Acceleration of platform exit and transformation**: Policies promoted the high - quality acceleration of infrastructure investment enterprises' "platform exit" and transformation. However, the new issuance space of urban investment bonds may be further narrowed, and the proportion of borrowing new to repay old is expected to remain high [15]. 3.3 Industry Development Expectations - **Conflict between short - term benefits and long - term fundamentals**: Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the conflict between short - term policy benefits and long - term "weak" fundamentals is still prominent. A large number of operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises are difficult to resolve [17][18]. - **Risks in enterprise transformation**: The exit from platforms and industrial transformation of infrastructure investment enterprises will continue to accelerate. Attention should be paid to the credit risks under the phenomena of "shelling" of traditional urban investment, "formalization" and "radicalization" of transformed urban investment, and the possible regional risk resonance [19][20]. - **Evolution of government - enterprise relationship**: The promotion of goals such as platform exit, urban investment transformation, and implicit debt clearance will force the government - enterprise relationship to become clearer. However, it is necessary to dynamically examine and evaluate the evolution of this relationship [21][22].