专利摘要显示，本发明通过构建基于能量守恒原理的实时在线开机高度预测模型，并结合多重安全阈值 (包括允许开机高度上限和备保开机高度下限)，动态、精确地确定发动机点火时机，确保在全飞行包线 内的安全性与燃料最优性，进而显著提升可复用火箭着陆的可靠性、精准度和经济性。本发明解决了现 有技术中发动机开机高度预测精度和鲁棒性不足、无法在线适应复杂飞行环境不确定性、以及安全裕度 考量不充分的问题，彻底消除了潜在的安全风险。 人民财讯12月12日电，企查查APP显示，近日，蓝箭航天空间科技股份有限公司申请公布"一种可复用 火箭着陆段开机高度预测方法、制导系统及处理器"专利。 ...

Core Insights - The recent launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket achieved orbit but failed in recovery, highlighting the iterative nature of reusable rocket technology development [1] - Developing reusable rockets is essential for China to become a space power and compete in the global space economy [1] Industry Overview - Reusable rocket technology is a global trend, with the potential to reduce launch costs by 80% to 90%, addressing the increasing demand for space access [1] - The Chinese government is actively promoting the development of commercial space, with policies supporting the establishment of industrial clusters in regions like Hainan, Beijing, and Shanghai [2] Technological Development - China is currently behind the U.S. in reusable rocket technology, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 achieving 31 successful recoveries since its first in December 2015, while China has yet to complete a successful orbital recovery [2] - Despite the gap, China has advantages such as the ability to learn from SpaceX's experiences and leverage new technologies like AI and 3D printing for potential advancements [2] Market Demand - China's large-scale satellite constellation plans, including GW, Qianfan, and Honghu, require breakthroughs in transportation capabilities provided by reusable rockets, which could unlock a trillion-dollar space economy [2] - The successful mass production of reusable rockets could lead to the emergence of 2 to 3 major companies with high-capacity, low-cost launch capabilities within the next five years [3] Project Progress - The Zhuque-3 launch marks the beginning of practical applications for China's reusable rocket technology, successfully delivering payloads to orbit while providing valuable data despite the recovery failure [3] - The development of other reusable rockets, such as the Long March 12 and Tianlong 3, is underway, with infrastructure like the Hainan commercial space launch site being established to support future recovery operations [3]

商业火箭：航天发射新力量，可复用开启低成本航天时代 20251204 摘要 商业航天行业正经历从导入期向成长初期的过渡，预计 2026 年卫星订 单和发射数量将显著增长，星网二代系统的推进可能进一步扩大市场规 模。 国内可复用火箭技术取得突破，如朱雀三号的成功入轨，大幅降低发射 成本至每公斤不到 1 万元人民币，缩小了与 SpaceX 猎鹰 9 号的差距， 提升了大规模星座组网的经济性。 投资者应重点关注卫星互联网运营和应用环节，这些环节决定了卫星发 射数量和产业规模，市场潜力巨大，远超火箭发射和卫星制造市场。 全球航天发射需求自 2020 年以来显著增加，商业火箭逐渐取代国家主 导火箭，SpaceX 的猎鹰 9 号成为全球主要发射力量，美国通过政策支 持商业火箭公司发展。 中国商业航天在政策支持下快速发展，但与美国相比，在运载能力和发 射成本上仍有优化空间，国内主要以小型固体火箭为主，大运力液体可 回收火箭尚处于发展阶段。 Q&A 最近国内可复用火箭取得显著进展，例如朱雀三号成功入轨发射。这些可复用 火箭的成本大幅降低，每公斤成本降至不到 1 万元人民币，与猎鹰 9 号相比差 距缩小。这种低成本有助于提升未 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the reusable rocket technology and highlights the broad prospects for satellite applications [1] Core Insights - Breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology have been achieved, marking significant advancements in China's commercial space industry [1][29] - The satellite communication market is opening up to consumer applications, with major telecom companies launching devices that support direct satellite connectivity [9][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of resource integration and innovation in downstream applications within the commercial aerospace sector [46] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer index increased by 1.66% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03% and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.40% [7][13] - Notable gains were observed in satellite navigation (+3.69%), commercial aerospace (+3.17%), and military information technology (+3.12%) [7][13] Market Performance (05.26-05.30) - The report notes a significant performance in individual stocks, with Zongheng Co. rising by 25.63% and Digital Government rising by 18.05% [18] - Conversely, companies like Bangyan Technology and Zhongke Star Map experienced declines of 16.09% and 10.26%, respectively [18] Valuation Analysis - The valuation of the low-altitude economy, aerospace equipment, and aviation equipment sectors is reported to be in the ranges of 96-98, 128-131, and 50-51 respectively, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical data [26] Breakthroughs in Rocket Recovery Technology - The successful test flight of the Yuanhang-1 rocket by Arrow元科技 marks a significant milestone in the development of large-scale reusable rockets [29] - The rocket is designed for 20 reuses and aims to support various market needs, including space tourism and deep space exploration [34] Opening of Consumer-Level Satellite Communication Market - The establishment of 5G satellite standards led by China is expected to revolutionize satellite communication, allowing direct connections from mobile devices to satellites [9][40] - As of April 2025, 30 devices supporting satellite connectivity have been launched by major telecom brands, indicating a shift towards consumer applications [9][40] Recent Highlights - The successful launch of the Tianwen-2 probe and the establishment of the Satellite Application Innovation Institute by China Aerospace Technology Group are significant developments in the aerospace sector [41][44] - The report highlights the potential of the drone logistics market, predicting a market size of approximately 300 billion yuan by 2024 [8][20] Investment Recommendations and Beneficiary Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in satellite manufacturing and rocket launches, such as China Satellite and Shanghai Hanhua [46] - It also highlights beneficiaries in satellite operations and applications, including China Satcom and Huace Navigation [46]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the commercial aerospace industry, suggesting that the sector will continue to experience growth and investment opportunities in the near future [8][10]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing development of satellite internet constellations and the increasing demand for satellite launches, which will drive the industry's growth [7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for satellite launches is unprecedented, and the application of reusable rocket technology will be a key factor in accelerating industry development [11][55]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies and support for the commercial aerospace sector, which are expected to provide a favorable environment for growth [25][28]. Summary by Sections Recent Events and Outlook - The report discusses the limited direct impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on China's commercial aerospace industry due to the country's advancements in domestic production capabilities and technology [25][26]. - It notes that several policies aimed at regulating and promoting the commercial aerospace industry have been implemented, which will help establish a foundation for accelerated development [27][28]. Investment Opportunities for 2025 - The report identifies several key areas for investment in the commercial aerospace sector, including satellite manufacturing, satellite communication, and satellite navigation, all of which are expected to see significant growth [10][11][12]. - Specific companies to watch include those involved in satellite manufacturing and internet constellations, as well as those intersecting with emerging industries like smart driving and artificial intelligence [9][13]. Market Performance - The report provides an overview of the market performance of the commercial aerospace index, noting a slight increase compared to other indices, indicating a resilient sector amidst broader market fluctuations [19][20]. - It highlights the performance of specific companies within the sector, showcasing significant gains for some while others faced declines [20][52]. Future Developments - The report anticipates that the commercial aerospace industry will continue to grow rapidly, supported by government initiatives and increasing private sector investment [26][39]. - It also mentions the ongoing development of new satellite constellations and the expansion of satellite internet services, which are expected to drive future growth [33][36][37].