Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with policy expectations fluctuating, internal and external economic conditions diverging, and certain opportunities and risks in different sectors [2][3][4] - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as colored metals, precious metals, and consider potential investment opportunities through operations like buying on dips [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations are swinging. After a series of important domestic meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment, there are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad. The market sentiment and macro - situation are somewhat deviated. Attention should be paid to domestic policy introductions and Trump's Fed chair candidates. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year's holiday may drive up commodity prices [2] - On January 8, the A - share market was volatile, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 15 consecutive positive days. The margin trading balance of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, with a significant daily increase [2] Economic Data - Internationally, there is a divergence in economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year. China's December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both returned to the expansion range, and foreign exchange reserves increased. The US manufacturing index declined slightly, and the service index reached a new high [3] - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than expected. The US Supreme Court will rule on tariff issues on January 9, and Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes [3][7] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, colored metals and precious metals with high certainty are still the focus. There are signs of price increases spreading from individual products to the whole market, and opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for losses should be noted. Among colored metals, aluminum is a preferred choice [4] - In the energy sector, geopolitical events during the holiday did not drive up oil prices. The key lies in the expected increase in crude oil supply after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela. OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol and PTA is worth attention. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored [4] - In the precious metals market, there are opportunities to buy on dips, but short - term silver risks have increased. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is undergoing a weight re - balancing, causing a liquidity shock [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and colored metals [5] Important News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly and achieved 15 consecutive positive days, while the ChiNext Index fell nearly 1%. About 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume was 2.82 trillion yuan [7] - Four ministries jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to regulate industry competition order, involving 16 enterprises and two industry associations [7] - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in December was lower than expected, and the service index reached a new high. Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes and hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [7] - The margin trading balance of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, with a significant daily increase [2][7] - In the commodity futures market, some products like polysilicon and container shipping on the European route fell, while others like coking coal and glass rose [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy expectations are swinging back and forth. After a series of important domestic meetings and the Fed's return to a "restrictive" stance in December, there are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad, with asset sentiment deviating from the macro situation. Future commodity prices will be determined by supply - side risks and loose monetary policies due to global geopolitical instability [1]. - There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December returned to the expansion range [2]. - For commodity investment, focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals. There are also opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for price increases. In the energy sector, pay attention to the growth expectation of crude oil supply after the US "temporary management" of Venezuela. In the chemical industry, focus on the "anti - involution" space of some varieties. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations are unstable. After the Central Economic Work Conference in December and the 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference in January, there are uncertainties in domestic and foreign policies. The Fed has internal differences. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year's Day holiday have increased supply - side risks for commodities [1]. - On January 7, the A - share market showed mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain was active, and the coal sector had a strong performance. In the commodity futures market, many contracts such as nickel, coke, and coking coal reached the daily limit [1]. Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's November foreign trade growth rebounded. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs returned to the expansion range. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but were still weak, and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high [2]. Commodity Investment - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Among non - ferrous metals, aluminum is a good choice. In the energy sector, pay attention to the situation in Venezuela and Iran. In the chemical industry, focus on the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA, etc. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather and pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices, but short - term silver risks have increased [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [4]. Key News - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month in December. On January 8, the central bank carried out a 1.1 trillion - yuan buy - out reverse repurchase operation. The US Supreme Court will rule on the tariff issue on January 9. Trump announced that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the domestic important meetings and the Fed's return to the "restrictive" stance, there is a risk of the policy expectations at home and abroad swinging back, and the asset sentiment deviates from the macro situation. Attention should be paid to the specific domestic policy announcements and Trump's announced candidates for the Fed Chair [1] - Since October, there has been a certain divergence in the domestic and foreign economic outlooks. The overseas economic outlook has been continuously declining, but China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November economic data is under pressure, while the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are better than expected. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but are still weak, and the December ISM manufacturing index fell slightly [2] - Currently, focus on the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors with high certainty, and also pay attention to the opportunities for low - valued commodities to catch up. In the energy sector, focus on the expected increase in crude oil supply after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela, and also pay attention to the situation in Iran. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA and other varieties. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [3] - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations may swing back. After the central economic work conference and the 2026 PBOC work conference, the directions of boosting consumption and promoting "anti - involution" remain unchanged. The Fed's stance and geopolitical tensions may affect asset prices. On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded 13 consecutive positive days, reaching a new high in more than a decade [1] Domestic and Foreign Economic Situation - There is a divergence between domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Overseas economic outlook has declined since October, while China's exports and new orders are positive. China's November economic data is under pressure, and the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are better than expected. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but are still weak, and the December ISM manufacturing index fell slightly [2] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. In the non - ferrous sector, aluminum is a preferred choice. In the energy sector, focus on the US - Venezuela situation and the Iran situation. In the chemical sector, pay attention to methanol and PTA. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather and pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips. On January 6, many commodity futures had significant price increases [3] Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Important News - The 2026 PBOC work conference emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 13 consecutive positive days. The US December ISM manufacturing index fell. There were developments in the Venezuela situation. Many commodity prices reached new highs or had significant increases [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After the A - share market opened in 2026, precious metals strengthened under geopolitical disturbances. There are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad. The market showed an overall upward trend on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3%. There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic prosperity. The report suggests focusing on commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals and also mentions investment strategies for commodities and stock index futures [2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations may swing. The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized boosting consumption and anti - "involution" measures. Future price recovery depends on supply - side policies. After important domestic meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment, there are risks of policy expectation swings. The geopolitical situation tightened during the New Year's Day holiday, which may drive up commodity prices. On January 5, the market trended upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index up nearly 3% [2] - There is a divergence in domestic and foreign economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has declined since October, but China's exports and new orders are still positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year. China's December official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI were better than expected, but new export orders in the service industry contracted. The US economic data was generally weak [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and look for opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for losses. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous metal sector remains unresolved, and aluminum is a preferred choice within the sector. In the energy sector, the focus is on future crude oil supply growth after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA, etc. For agricultural products, monitor weather and short - term pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips, but be aware that short - term silver risks have increased [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying on dips for stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [5] To - do News - The market trended upward on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points, the ChiNext Index up nearly 3%, and the CSI A500 Index up over 2%. More than 4100 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume was 2.57 trillion. China's December RatingDog service industry PMI was 52, remaining in the expansion range but with new export orders contracting. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and Trump said he would "manage" Venezuela and involve in the oil industry. OPEC+ will maintain the oil supply unchanged in the first quarter. Some commodity futures prices rose significantly, while others declined [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report points out that there is a risk of a swing in policy expectations both at home and abroad. Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and global instability will be the norm. The supply - side risks of commodities and loose monetary policies are decisive factors for rising commodity prices. It also mentions bifurcations in domestic and overseas economic outlooks and suggests investment strategies for different asset classes [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro**: There is a risk of a swing in policy expectations after domestic important meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment. Attention should be paid to specific domestic policies and Trump's Fed chair candidate. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year holiday may lead to supply - side risks for commodities and support price increases [1]. - **Meso**: There is a divergence in domestic and overseas economic outlooks. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized consumption promotion and "anti - involution." Trade supported the December economic outlook, with consumption leading the industry recovery, and the persistence of new orders' resilience needs attention [2]. - **Micro**: Focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and also look for opportunities in low - valued commodity price hikes. For non - ferrous metals, aluminum is a preferred choice. Energy prices are affected by geopolitical events and future supply expectations. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worth noting. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [3]. Strategy - **Commodities and Stock Index Futures**: Allocate more on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [4]. Economic Heat Maps - **US Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, different economic indicators showed various trends. Consumption contributed 66.8% to GDP, investment 26.1%, and fiscal 20.3%. Indicators such as GDP growth, employment, inflation, and consumption had their own fluctuations [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, and credit indicators all had different trends. For example, the inflation rate was around 2% - 2.5% [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, net exports contributed 30.3% to GDP, investment 25.2%, and consumption 44.5%. GDP growth, investment in different sectors, consumption, inflation, and financial indicators showed their own characteristics. For instance, the real estate investment growth rate was negative [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid policy expectation swings and complex global economic situations, investors should track sentiment-driven market trends and prepare for potential risks on the right side. Particular attention should be paid to the sectors of non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and certain commodities with high certainty [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations have shifted. After important meetings in December, future policy marginal increments may depend on growth-stabilizing points. The government will continue to boost consumption and promote "anti-involution." Multiple ministries have responded, and investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year. China's November economic data shows mixed performance, with industrial production remaining resilient and consumption hitting a low for the year. The A-share market strengthened on December 17 [1] International Monetary Policy and Economy - The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, with expectations of future interest rate cuts. The US employment and PMI data are weak, while the eurozone's manufacturing PMI shows a mixed picture, and the UK's inflation has unexpectedly declined, increasing the expectation of a fourth interest rate cut this year. The market is currently driven by sentiment, but risks of macro and fundamental resonance should be watched out for [2] Commodity Market - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals. The long-term supply constraints in the non-ferrous metals sector remain unresolved. In the energy sector, there are additional production cuts and geopolitical factors affecting the oil price. In the chemical industry, there is "anti-involution" potential in certain varieties. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan from the US and weather expectations. For precious metals, there are opportunities to buy on dips, but short-term risks for silver have increased [3] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Key News - The market strengthened throughout the day on December 17, with the ChiNext Index surging over 3%. Many stocks rose, and trading volume reached 1.83 trillion. The Fed's official said there is room for interest rate cuts but no need to rush. The UK's November CPI was lower than expected. The WTI crude futures rose due to Trump's order to block Venezuelan oil tankers. Many commodity futures closed with significant gains [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation - expectation gaming phase, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors. Track the sentiment - driven market trends and prepare risk plans for potential right - side adjustments [4]. - The sentiment in the market remains high, but there are risks of policy expectation reversals both domestically and internationally. Be vigilant about the macro and fundamental resonance risks when market sentiment turns cold [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations in China are showing a swing. The Politburo Meeting on December 8 emphasized the continuation of an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 focused on boosting consumption and addressing "involution - style" competition. Multiple ministries have responded. China's November economic data shows industrial resilience, but consumption and fixed - asset investment are under pressure [2]. - The Fed has restarted a "restrictive" stance, with a planned purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. The Fed may pause rate cuts again. US economic data has shown mixed results, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has different trends. There are risks of a downward trend in the market if sentiment cools [3]. Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: The long - term supply constraint problem has not been alleviated, and the certainty of investment remains high [4]. - Energy: OPEC members have proposed additional production cuts, and the EU plans to stop Russian gas imports by 2027. The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has reduced concerns about oil supply disruptions. However, the oil market is facing a severe supply glut, and oil prices have dropped significantly [4]. - Chemicals: There is "anti - involution" potential in varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA [4]. - Agriculture: With the Sino - US talks, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [4]. - Precious metals: There are opportunities for buying on dips, but the short - term risk of silver has increased, and the gold - silver ratio has deviated from the reasonable repair range [4]. Key News - The Central Financial Office detailed the spirit of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, stating that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue next year, aiming to promote economic growth and reasonable price recovery, using various monetary policy tools flexibly, and supporting key areas [6]. - China's November economic data shows that industrial production has resilience, but consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market are under pressure. The prices of 70 large and medium - sized cities have declined [6]. - US economic data includes an increase in non - farm payrolls in November, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a decline in the December manufacturing PMI [3][6]. - The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI has accelerated its contraction, with different performances in Germany and France [3]. - Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $60 per barrel, and WTI crude oil has reached a four - year low due to supply gluts [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Policy expectations in China are swinging. After important meetings at the end of the year, attention should be paid to the government work report around February next year and the risk of policy expectation swings. The Fed has restarted a "restrictive" stance, and there are risks in the market due to various factors. In the commodity market, focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals [1][2][3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's policies continue to emphasize active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. In November, China's foreign trade grew, manufacturing PMI improved, and there were changes in industrial and consumer data. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and plans to buy short - term bonds. The ADP employment in the US decreased in November [1][2] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals during the inflation expectation game. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains. In the energy sector, the global oil supply surplus expectation was lowered, and there are additional production cut plans. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worth noting. In the agricultural sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan and weather expectations. There are opportunities for buying precious metals at low prices [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4]