PPI 回升周期：主导力量、政策基础 和前景展望 [Table_FirstAuthor] 解运亮 宏观首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 28 日 证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 深度报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial producer price index shows a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, indicating a downward trend in producer prices [5][7]. Group 1: Producer Prices - The industrial producer's ex-factory prices have decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 2.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [5][9]. - The decline in production material prices contributed approximately 2.40 percentage points to the overall decrease in producer prices, while living material prices contributed about 0.45 percentage points [7]. Group 2: Price Changes by Category - Year-on-year changes in producer prices for various categories include: - Production materials down 3.2% - Living materials down 1.7% [7]. - Month-on-month changes in producer prices show: - Black metal materials down 5.6% - Fuel and power down 9.7% - Chemical raw materials down 6.2% - Agricultural and sideline products down 5.6% - Construction materials and non-metallic materials down 4.7% - Textile raw materials down 2.0% - Non-ferrous metal materials and wires up 4.7% [9].

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.5% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables reached 4.46 yuan per kilogram, rising by 3.2%, with broccoli, cucumber, and zucchini increasing by 18.9%, 10.9%, and 10.2% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight increases, with eggs and white-cut chicken rising by 1.4% and 0.5% respectively [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices experienced minor increases, with grass carp, large yellow croaker, and carp rising by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.05 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.6%, while beef and lamb increased by 0.3% [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices slightly decreased, with soybean oil, rapeseed oil, rice, and flour all dropping by 0.2%, while peanut oil increased by 0.1% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly decreased, with grapes, watermelons, and bananas falling by 1.1%, 1.1%, and 0.9% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Steel prices experienced slight declines, with high-speed wire, rebar, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3595 yuan, 3411 yuan, and 3613 yuan per ton, decreasing by 1.2%, 1.1%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices saw minor decreases, with polypropylene, sulfuric acid, methanol, and soda ash dropping by 1.3%, 0.7%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices slightly retreated, with zinc, copper, and aluminum decreasing by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Refined oil wholesale prices continued to decline, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as urea rose by 0.1%, while compound fertilizers remained unchanged from the previous week [2] - Coal prices continued to rise, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 994 yuan, 766 yuan, and 1138 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.1%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively [2]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.3% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables reached 4.32 yuan per kilogram, rising by 3.1%, with cauliflower, broccoli, and spinach increasing by 17.4%, 16.5%, and 11.3% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products saw an increase, with large yellow croaker, large mackerel, and silver carp rising by 2.0%, 1.0%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil both increasing by 0.2%, while peanut oil and flour decreased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices slightly declined, with eggs and white-feathered chickens decreasing by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.17 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.7%, while beef and lamb increased by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Fruit wholesale prices experienced a slight decline, with bananas, grapes, and watermelons decreasing by 2.2%, 1.8%, and 1.1% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals experienced a slight increase, with copper and aluminum rising by 1.0% and 0.2% respectively, while zinc remained stable [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were mainly on the rise, with sulfuric acid increasing by 0.9%, while methanol, soda ash, and polypropylene decreased by 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Coal prices continued to rise, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 983 yuan, 763 yuan, and 1137 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with hot-rolled strip steel and ordinary medium plates priced at 3636 yuan and 3791 yuan per ton, both increasing by 0.3%, while rebar and high-speed wire rod decreased by 0.1% [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices saw a slight decline, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline all decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Fertilizer prices experienced a slight decrease, with urea and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.7% and 0.1% respectively [2]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative this week, while Index B showed seasonal decline, indicating a stable economic growth momentum[1] - Real estate sector performance improved, while investment and consumption sectors showed a decline, with the real estate sector performing relatively better[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.14, remaining close to historical average levels, suggesting steady domestic economic growth[1] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating a potential downward adjustment in the index next week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 8, 2025, is expected to rise, while the Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to decline[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield is 2.34%, compared to the actual value of 1.72%, indicating a significant deviation[19] Price Tracking - Food prices increased by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in July, while non-food prices decreased by about 0.5%, leading to an overall CPI increase of around 0.5%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show a month-on-month increase of about 0.1% in July, with a year-on-year recovery to -3.3%[2]