（原标题：国际金价飙涨原因找到了） 转自：证券时报 人民财讯10月8日电，8日，继纽约黄金期货价格前一天收于每盎司4000美元整数关口上方后，国际金价 在亚洲交易时段延续涨势，伦敦现货黄金价格历史上首次触及每盎司4000美元关口，达到每盎司 4005.88美元，创盘中历史新高。分析指出，美国联邦政府停摆、美国债务可持续性等短期和长期风 险，叠加市场对美联储未来多次降息预期升温，以及全球多个地区地缘冲突持续等因素，综合推动金价 快速上涨。 ...

8日，继纽约黄金期货价格前一天收于每盎司4000美元整数关口上方后，国际金价在亚洲交易时段延续 涨势，伦敦现货黄金价格历史上首次触及每盎司4000美元关口，达到每盎司4005.88美元，创盘中历史 新高。分析指出，美国联邦政府停摆、美国债务可持续性等短期和长期风险，叠加市场对美联储未来多 次降息预期升温，以及全球多个地区地缘冲突持续等因素，综合推动金价快速上涨。（央视财经） 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of S&P Global Ratings is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump may help maintain U.S. fiscal health despite criticisms from mainstream economists [1] - S&P confirmed the U.S. long-term credit rating at AA+ and short-term rating at A-1+, with a stable outlook, partly due to expected tariff revenues offsetting the impact of recent tax and spending legislation [1][2] - The report indicates that significant tariff revenues are anticipated to counterbalance potential fiscal weaknesses arising from recent legislation, with July tariff revenues reaching a record high of $28 billion [2] Group 2 - There is ongoing debate among economists regarding the sustainability of tariff revenues, as Trump's policies aim to bring production back to the U.S., which could reduce future tariff income [2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that recent budget legislation will increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, despite rising tariff revenues [2] - S&P's stable outlook suggests that while U.S. fiscal deficits may not significantly improve, they also will not worsen substantially in the coming years, with projected government net debt exceeding GDP by over 100% [3]

Group 1: U.S. National Debt - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, approximately 1.27 times the projected nominal GDP for 2024 [1][2] - As of August 12, 2023, the U.S. national debt reached $37,004,817,625,842 [1] - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2025, accounting for 6.2% of GDP, with expectations of rising deficits in the coming years [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth rate of 2.7%, which is below market expectations [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest increase in six months, with a year-over-year growth of 3.1% [3][4] - Weak non-farm payroll data for July, with only 73,000 jobs added, has strengthened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4]

Core Viewpoint - The total federal government debt in the United States has surpassed $37 trillion, reflecting an increasing reliance on borrowing for government spending and a growing burden of interest payments [1] Group 1: Debt Growth - The U.S. federal government debt has accelerated in recent years, crossing the thresholds of $34 trillion, $35 trillion, and $36 trillion in January, July, and November of 2024 respectively [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce projects the GDP for 2024 to be $29.18 trillion, with a growth rate of 2.8%, leading to a federal debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 126.8% [1] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Projections - The Congressional Budget Office had previously predicted that federal government debt would exceed $37 trillion after the fiscal year 2030 [1] - The latest assessment indicates that the "big and beautiful" tax and spending plan promoted by former President Trump is expected to increase the federal deficit by about $4.1 trillion over the next decade, including interest [1] Group 3: Market Concerns - Observers express concerns that the rising fiscal deficit will exacerbate the already high levels of U.S. government debt, raising market worries about the sustainability of U.S. debt [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has allowed citizens to make voluntary donations to help reduce the national debt through Venmo and PayPal, expanding payment options beyond traditional bank transfers and credit cards [1][2] - As of July 25, the U.S. national debt has reached a record $36.7 trillion, an increase of 87% from $19.59 trillion in 2010 [2] - The donation program, which has been in place since 1996, has raised only $67.3 million, representing a mere 0.0002% of the current national debt [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt are growing, with hedge fund founder Ray Dalio warning of increasing risks of a fiscal crisis unless urgent policy changes are made [3][4] - Dalio suggests that the U.S. should aim to reduce the federal deficit to 3% of GDP, a level last maintained during the Clinton administration, to stabilize markets and control interest expenses [4] - The recent "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the long-term fiscal outlook [5] Group 3 - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the new tax and spending bill will lead to a direct spending reduction of about $1.1 trillion and a revenue decline of approximately $4.5 trillion, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [5] - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative," citing increased uncertainty and anticipated prolonged high interest rates [5] - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth due to excessive liquidity from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, which may lead to a market correction [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent surge in gold prices due to heightened market risk aversion following U.S. President Trump's tariff announcements, with gold prices increasing nearly 2% on Friday and a weekly gain of approximately 5% [1][2] - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to growing concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade relations, which are expected to continue influencing market reactions [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish trend for gold, with key support levels identified at 3315 and resistance levels at 3370, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors [4][5] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data releases, including April durable goods orders and the PCE price index, are anticipated to impact market sentiment and gold prices, with a 27% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [2][5] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. Senate discussions on spending bills and trade negotiations with major partners, as any lack of progress could lead to further inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset [2][5] - The articles emphasize the importance of risk management and strategic trading approaches, advising investors to consider both short and long positions based on market conditions and technical indicators [5][6]

Core Insights - A recent survey conducted by Deutsche Bank researchers on May 19 revealed that 80% of the 450 respondents share a similar view with Moody's, indicating that the trajectory of U.S. debt appears unsustainable [1] Group 1 - The survey involved 450 participants [1] - 80% of respondents align with Moody's perspective on U.S. debt sustainability [1] - The findings suggest a growing concern regarding the long-term viability of U.S. debt levels [1]