Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela. The supply of asphalt is affected by factors such as refinery production adjustments and the availability of Venezuelan heavy - oil. Demand is constrained by funds, weather, and the progress of road construction projects [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.32% to 223,600 tons week - on - week. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical switched to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical planned to stop production, keeping the asphalt开工率 at a low level [1]. - Demand: Last week, the开工 rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt开工率 decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. A new round of rain and snow is coming, with road construction in the north gradually ending and southern projects also entering the final stage [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical Impact: The US military action in Venezuela has restricted the flow of Venezuelan heavy - oil to domestic refineries, which will affect asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.45% to 3,157 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,134 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,167 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,111 to 187,438 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained stable at 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract fell to - 87 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - Investment in Road Construction: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased to - 6.0% from - 4.7% in January - November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2% from - 1.1% in January - November 2025 [5]. - Social Financing: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November. The recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 14.1% compared to the week of January 9, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed trend on January 12, 2026, with some commodities rising significantly and others declining [5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations, and factors such as macro - economy, policy, and geopolitics affect their prices, with different price trends expected for each commodity. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Metals - **沪铜**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The supply side may face production cuts, the demand side has strong terminal demand but weak copper product demand, showing a structure of strong expectation and weak reality, with a medium - to - long - term upward trend after a phased correction [8]. - **碳酸锂**: Affected by the export tax - rebate adjustment, the market has a strong expectation of rush - export, driving the futures price to rise sharply. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be strong under the stimulation of rush - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production needs to be noted [10]. - **焦煤**: The spot price of coking coal is relatively stable, the supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has a recovery in demand from coking enterprises and steel mills. The price is expected to be volatile and strong, but chasing high prices has risks [21][22]. Energy - **原油**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, the demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, which is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **沥青**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand in the north is affected by the end of construction, and the demand in the south is average. Geopolitical events in Venezuela affect the raw material supply, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly, with the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil showing a strong and volatile trend [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is low, the supply has new capacity and a decrease in maintenance, the demand is in the off - season. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **塑料**: The开工率 is at a medium level, the downstream demand of agricultural film is in the off - season, the supply has new capacity, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][19]. - **PVC**: The supply side has an increase in开工率, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and there may be a rush - export phenomenon before the cancellation of export tax - rebates. The 3 - 5 contracts are expected to be strong and volatile [20]. - **尿素**: After a continuous rise, it enters a correction stage. The supply side has an increase in daily output, the demand side has weak support, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [23]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with the CSI 1000 rising the most at 3.75% [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had different degrees of increase or remained flat, with the 30 - year rising the most at 0.30% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the near term, and the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil will oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable last week. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. The high - price transactions of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China were sluggish, and the refinery shipments were blocked, with a large decrease in shipments. The national shipments decreased 3.22% to 263,100 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years. The US military attack on Venezuela may affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt, and attention should be paid to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries. This week, the main refineries in East China intermittently shut down, and the asphalt operating rate remained low [1]. - Demand side: Road construction in the North is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, but the winter storage demand in the North continues to be released. The overall demand in the South is average, and the low - price supply from southern refineries has decreased. The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.70% to 3,132 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,128 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,188 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,081 to 224,334 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 62 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Zhongyou Gaofu shut down for maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical switched production. The asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to November 2025, the actual cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 4.7%, a slight decline from - 4.3% from January to October 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 1.1%, a further decline from - 0.1% from January to October 2025. As of the week of January 2, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as that from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 2, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.7 percentage points to 12.9% compared with the week of December 26, and was near the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate significantly in the near term. Given the uncertainties, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach and closely monitor the situation in Venezuela [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year [1]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable last week. The road asphalt operating rate remained at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. The high - price transactions of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China were sluggish, and refinery shipments decreased. The national shipments decreased 3.22% to 263,100 tons week - on - week [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years. The US military attack on Venezuela may affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. The asphalt operating rate will remain low this week. The rigid demand in the north will further slow down, but the winter storage demand continues to be released. The overall demand in the south is average [1]. 3.2期现行情 - Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 0.35% to 3,144 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,129 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,184 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 14,755 to 80,682 lots [2]. 3.3基差方面 - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,070 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 02 contract dropped to - 74 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 3.4基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, Zhongyou Gaofu stopped production for maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical switched production. The asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4]. - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry from January to November 2025 was - 4.7%, a slight decline from - 4.3% from January to October 2025 [4]. - As of the week of January 2, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable. The road asphalt operating rate remained at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as that from January to October [4]. - As of the week of January 2, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.7 percentage points to 12.9% compared with the week of December 26 and was near the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to have significant price fluctuations in the near term, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach while keeping an eye on the situation in Venezuela [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][21] - In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 15.8 tons month - on - month (7.3%) and 27.6 tons year - on - year (12.1%) [3] - As of the week ending January 2nd, most of the downstream industries'开工率 of asphalt remained stable, with the road asphalt开工率 unchanged at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [3][30] - As of the week ending January 2nd, the high - price transactions of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China were sluggish, and the refinery shipments were blocked. The national shipment volume decreased by 3.22% week - on - week to 263,100 tons, at a neutral level [3][26] - As of the week ending January 2nd, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 12.9% week - on - week, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [35] - The U.S. military attack on Venezuela is expected to reduce the discount of diluted asphalt, severely restricting the flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries, affecting domestic asphalt production and costs [3] - This week, the main refineries in East China will have intermittent shutdowns, and the asphalt开工率 will remain low. The road construction in the north is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, but the winter storage demand in the north is continuously being released. The overall demand in the south is average, and the low - price supply from southern refineries has decreased [3] - The asphalt price in Shandong has increased, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3][16] 3.2 Ratio and Basis - The asphalt - to - crude oil ratio has risen to 6.99 [13] - The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 2,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract has risen to - 72 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level [16] 3.3 Demand - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but remained negative. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.7%, slightly lower than the - 4.3% from January to October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 1.1%, lower than the - 0.1% from January to October 2025 [30]

Group 1 - The international gold price has surged significantly, reaching a peak of $2,009 per ounce in London and nearly $2,015 per ounce on COMEX, marking a rise of over 9% since early March [1] - The primary driver of this increase has been the turmoil in the banking sector, particularly the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the liquidity crisis at Credit Suisse, which triggered a flight to safety and boosted gold prices by 5% [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike of 25 basis points, gold prices rose an additional 4% within three trading days, influenced by dovish signals from the Fed that weakened the dollar and raised expectations of a halt in further rate increases [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical instability and economic stagnation in Europe and the U.S. have made gold an attractive safe haven, with global central bank demand for gold reaching 1,136 tons in 2022, doubling from 450.1 tons in 2021, and continuing to rise in 2023 [3] - Despite the recent rapid increase in gold prices, there is still potential for further growth, as the Fed is expected to halt rate hikes, the weak dollar will support gold prices, and financial and recession risks are likely to become more pronounced in the second half of the year [4] - The A-share market is also influenced by inflation and recession dynamics, with rising inflation and currency depreciation driving gold prices higher, while ongoing tightening policies increase recession risks, enhancing gold's risk premium [6]