中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 流动性真空，市场放大利空情绪，短期美国就业仍然是最大困扰，降息概率下降。 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 黄金短期大驱动较少，长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重 | | ★ | | 塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 短期市场数据空白，市场交易没有锚点，白银跟对下跌。长期来看白银基本面来看 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。关注 11500 | | ★ | | 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储官员放鹰，美元流动性紧张，市场静待非农数据，海外铜库存累库，铜短期 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 承压调整测试 8 万 5 关口支撑，建议等待止跌企稳背靠均线低多，中长期，铜精矿 | | ★ | | 紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪转冷，消费淡季需求疲软，锌承压偏弱运行，中长期看，锌供增需 | | | 反弹承压 | | | ★ | | 减，维持反 ...

Group 1 - The current bull market in the US stock market has shown a historically rare long cycle characteristic, having lasted 33 months since its inception on October 12, 2022, surpassing the average long-term bull market lifespan of 1105 days [1] - The S&P 500 has experienced a cumulative increase of 69%, driven by dual forces of technological revolution and geopolitical restructuring, although it is still below the typical bull market average gain of 156% [1] - UBS emphasizes two core logical frameworks: the rise in productivity driven by AI technology, which mirrors the path of the internet revolution in the 1990s, and the restructuring of global security dynamics, with military spending projected to grow by 12% in 2024, the highest rate since the end of the Cold War [1] Group 2 - The current market valuation structure shows significant differentiation, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio at 21.5 times, lower than the 28 times during the 2000 internet bubble, largely due to the 33% weight of tech giants [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining a high benchmark interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% in 2023, the S&P 500 index achieved a 24% annual increase, indicating that rising interest rates have not suppressed tech stock valuation expansion [3] - The NDR sentiment indicator shows that the current market correction cycle is at a historical low, with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs for 512 consecutive trading days without triggering bear market thresholds, surpassing the performance seen in the late 1990s bull market [3]