Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound in the short - term, sell on rallies in the medium - long term [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Low - level rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The long - term strategic value of gold remains unchanged due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Silver has potential for growth with policy - driven demand. Copper is expected to see a rising price center. Zinc has short - term support but a bearish medium - long - term outlook. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum face challenges in price rebounds. Nickel shows a low - level rebound. Industrial silicon is range - bound. Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market situation**: US economic data is volatile, consumption is weak, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation is in deadlock, but gold has long - term support from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Strategies**: Long - term value - based positions should be held, with short - term attention on the support levels of 920 for domestic gold and 12000 for silver [3] Copper - **Market situation**: The price of copper shows an upward trend. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to decline. The market has high expectations for policy stimulus [5][6][7] - **Strategies**: Buy on dips. Short - term, focus on the range of 86500 - 88500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10500 - 11000 dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - **Market situation**: Domestic zinc enters the off - season, with exports increasing and inventory decreasing slightly. The supply and demand are weak in the short term, and there is a risk of supply increase and demand decrease in the long term [9] - **Strategies**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, waiting for more macro - guidance. Sell on rallies in the medium - long term. Focus on the range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3000 - 3100 dollars/ton for London zinc [10] Aluminum - **Market situation**: Aluminum prices face pressure in rebounding. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is expected to decrease, and domestic demand shows a structural differentiation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [11][13] - **Strategies**: Short - term short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. Focus on the range of 21000 - 21600 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market situation**: Nickel prices rebound. Indonesia plans to cut production, but global refined nickel inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel demand is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [15][17] - **Strategies**: Take profit on dips and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. Focus on the range of 116000 - 119000 yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 14 weeks, but the rate of decrease has slowed down. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt factories has increased, and terminal demand remains strong [19][21] - **Strategies**: Buy on dips, with the range of 94000 - 97500 yuan/ton [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: High - level under pressure [1] - Aluminum: High - level under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is in a liquidity vacuum, magnifying bearish sentiment. Short - term, the US employment situation is the biggest concern, and the probability of interest rate cuts has decreased [1][3]. - Gold has few short - term major drivers, and long - term trading is recommended. In the long - run, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its long - term strategic allocation value [1][4]. - Silver has followed the decline in the short - term due to a lack of market data. In the long - run, global policy stimulus will boost demand, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is under short - term pressure and is testing the support at 85,000 yuan. In the medium - to - long - term, the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand are bullish factors [1][7]. - Zinc is under pressure in the short - term due to weak demand in the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing [1][11]. - Lead is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production of some lead smelters in the north has recovered, while the production of large and medium - sized lead battery enterprises has decreased, leading to an increase in social inventory and short - term pressure on prices [1]. - Tin is under high - level pressure in the short - term due to slow resumption of overseas tin mines, tight concentrates in Yunnan, and weak downstream electronic consumption demand [1]. - Aluminum is under high - level pressure in the short - term due to the continuous surplus of upstream alumina, high operating rates of domestic electrolytic aluminum, and a slowdown in inventory reduction in mainstream consumption areas [1]. - Nickel is weak due to the continuous increase in overseas LME nickel inventory, high domestic nickel inventory, and weakening downstream stainless steel consumption [1][18]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance range - bound state in November. Supply has increased by 1.67% month - on - month, and there are rumors of production cuts in downstream industries [1]. - Polysilicon is in high - level oscillation. Spot market performance is flat, and downstream profit losses may limit demand, but there are still expectations of capacity integration [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices have fallen from highs due to profit - taking and exchange window guidance. The total inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, and it is advisable to go long after stabilization [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Short - term trading lacks an anchor, bearish sentiment is magnified, and gold and silver are in range - bound adjustment [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment data shows an increase in initial and continued jobless claims, and there is a large - scale layoff warning. There is a liquidity vacuum due to changes in the Fed's attitude and domestic political situation. In the long - run, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11,500. Long - term value - allocated positions should be held, and short - term trading should be cautious [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and adjusting [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased both month - on - month and more than expected. Consumption is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises'开工 rates are weak. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and overseas copper inventory is increasing [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, copper is under pressure and testing the support at 85,000 yuan. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still bullish. Short - term, pay attention to the ranges [84,500, 87,500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10,500, 11,000] US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production has declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to fall. Refined zinc enterprises are in a loss state. Consumption is in the off - season, and overseas LME zinc inventory has increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure and running weakly due to a cold macro and sector sentiment and weak demand in the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of selling on rallies. Pay attention to the ranges [22,000, 22,500] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2,950, 3,050] US dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina is in a low - level weak trend [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the Fed's year - end interest rate cut expectation has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. The demand side shows a structural differentiation. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea has ended, and domestic bauxite production has resumed. The market is in a surplus state in the short - term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21,100 - 21,800] yuan/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continue to be weak, and stainless steel is under pressure at a low level [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: The Fed's year - end interest rate cut expectation has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026, and global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has faded, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [114,000 - 116,000] yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with the late - session gain narrowing to less than 1% [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals remain in a tight supply - demand situation, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. Domestic production has reached a new high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the production increase. Terminal market demand is strong, and the market focuses on the demand side [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for opportunities to go long during callbacks or sideways consolidation in the range [91,000 - 94,000] yuan/ton [23].

Group 1 - The current bull market in the US stock market has shown a historically rare long cycle characteristic, having lasted 33 months since its inception on October 12, 2022, surpassing the average long-term bull market lifespan of 1105 days [1] - The S&P 500 has experienced a cumulative increase of 69%, driven by dual forces of technological revolution and geopolitical restructuring, although it is still below the typical bull market average gain of 156% [1] - UBS emphasizes two core logical frameworks: the rise in productivity driven by AI technology, which mirrors the path of the internet revolution in the 1990s, and the restructuring of global security dynamics, with military spending projected to grow by 12% in 2024, the highest rate since the end of the Cold War [1] Group 2 - The current market valuation structure shows significant differentiation, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio at 21.5 times, lower than the 28 times during the 2000 internet bubble, largely due to the 33% weight of tech giants [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining a high benchmark interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% in 2023, the S&P 500 index achieved a 24% annual increase, indicating that rising interest rates have not suppressed tech stock valuation expansion [3] - The NDR sentiment indicator shows that the current market correction cycle is at a historical low, with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs for 512 consecutive trading days without triggering bear market thresholds, surpassing the performance seen in the late 1990s bull market [3]