专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 12月24日，ATFX汇评：本周四是西方重要节日圣诞节，纽约证券交易所、芝商所CME、洲际交易所 ICE旗下的产品都会暂停交易。圣诞节前夜，也就是平安夜，美国的股票和期货市场也会提前数小时收 盘。频繁休市，冲击股票和期货的交易量，本周的资本市场流动性应当偏低。 ▲ATFX图 债券市场来看，最近四个月，美债收益率保持横盘震荡态势，上限4.19%，下限3.95%。美国联邦基金 利率区间为3.5~3.75%，按照上限比较，两者相差44基点。从长周期看，美联储的货币政策偏紧缩，但 紧缩程度较弱。一年期美债收益率为3.52%，与联邦基金利率下限相近，意味着美联储短期内再次降息 的概率较低。 虽然美元指数仍在持续下跌，今日亚盘最低价触及97.7点，但从中期来看，美联储降息的意愿并不强 烈。尤其是美国三季度GDP环比增速达到4.3%之后，CME的美联储观察模型，对美联储降息的概率预 测跌至13.3%。所以，金银短期仍在疯涨，但中期利多因素较少或已进入边际递减状态，警惕触顶回落 风险。 责任编辑：陈平 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 12月24日，ATFX汇评：本周四是西方重要节日圣诞节，纽约证券交易 ...

ATFX汇评：美联储12月利率决议前后，波动最大的交易标的是国际盘白银。本周二，美联储公布利率结果前一天，国际白银价格从 最低57.73飙涨至60.81美元；本周三，美联储公布利率决议结果当日，国际白银价格收盘在61美元上方；今日，美联储利率决议后， 国际白银亚盘冲高至62.86美元，冲破62美元关口。同期的国际黄金，虽然也实现了三连阳，但K线实体较小，整体走势偏温和。 美联储主席鲍威尔在货币政策新闻发布会上表示："通胀仍处于较高水平且略有上升，自10月会议以来有关通胀的数据公布得很少。 劳动力市场活跃度出现下降，呈现出疲软态势，存在下行风险。政府停摆产生的影响预计会被下一季度政府重新开门后带来的更高经 济增长所抵消。数据可能存在失真情况，原因是10月以及11月部分时间未收集数据。若无需对劳动力市场有所担忧，政策利率会更 高。"综合来看，鲍威尔仍对通胀水平保持警惕，劳动力市场超预期疲软是促成本次降息的核心原因。鲍威尔仍坚持适度的宽松政 策，不希望降息节奏过快或者幅度过大。 ▲ATFX图 行情方面，国际白银的日线级别，中长期趋势依旧为显著多头。长期趋势的驱动因素主要来自美联储的降息预期、特朗普激进政策以 及东欧 ...

本周PTA行情先跌后涨，主因是累库存预期一度利空市场，但地缘问题叠加美联储降息利好原油市场， 推涨PTA行情。按行业季节性规律来看，1-2月需求将下跌至低位，PTA加速积累库存，利空PTA市场。 但美国在南美洲某国海岸附近扣押了一艘油轮，美联储如预期下调利率，原油上涨，对PTA成本支撑增 强。短期关注地缘问题是否升级，预计短期PTA行情微幅上涨。 PTA：多空消息交织 行情先跌后涨 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - International silver prices are approaching historical highs due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is as high as 86.9%, with only a 13.1% chance of maintaining current rates [3]. - The FedWatch model, which predicts these probabilities, is highly sensitive to fluctuations in option prices, and the probabilities may change significantly as the December 10 rate decision approaches [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - President Trump has indicated potential ground actions against Venezuela, which could escalate tensions in the Caribbean and drive safe-haven demand for silver and gold [3]. - The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may see a turning point, as a peace plan has gained basic acknowledgment from both President Zelensky and President Putin, which could reduce global risk aversion if the conflict ends [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Silver Prices - Technically, silver is currently in a long-term upward trend, but there is uncertainty about whether the current upward wave will end soon [5]. - There is a possibility that silver may reverse after reaching the $55 resistance level, potentially forming a classic triple top pattern, which would make it more difficult to break through historical high price levels [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced adjustments after reaching new highs, but it remains in a consolidation phase since September, with a positive outlook on liquidity and market sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The current market's sustainability is heavily influenced by the liquidity situation, which appears to be positive [1] - There is a focus on the direction of market profitability moving forward, with ongoing improvements in overseas liquidity and geopolitical issues [1] - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing upward momentum, supporting a mid-term bullish outlook for the market [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a high position in the market, with an emphasis on balanced sector selection [1] - Attention should be given to the continuation of the positive trends indicated in the third-quarter reports [1] - Specific sectors to focus on include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer goods companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that after reaching a new high, the A-share market has experienced some adjustments but remains in a consolidation phase since September. The sustainability of the current market trend is largely dependent on the positive feedback from the liquidity situation [1] Market Conditions - The current liquidity environment is viewed as positive, with ongoing improvements in overseas liquidity and geopolitical issues. The domestic economic fundamentals are also showing upward momentum, supporting the mid-term outlook for the market [1] Investment Strategy - The company recommends maintaining a high position in the market and emphasizes the importance of balanced sector selection. Attention should be paid to the continuation of profitability trends as reflected in the upcoming third-quarter reports [1] Sector Focus - Specific sectors to watch include: - Domestic computing power chain - Innovative pharmaceuticals - Robotics - Chemicals - Batteries - Leading consumer goods companies [1]