Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal increase in inventory and slight fluctuations in the prices of base metals, with a focus on the ongoing macroeconomic environment and its impact on supply and demand dynamics [6][11]. - The report suggests that the long-term supply-demand structure is being reshaped, indicating limited downside potential for base metal prices and encouraging investors to seek new entry points, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the domestic industrial metal prices have shown slight fluctuations, with the non-ferrous metal index outperforming the market. The weekly price changes for LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc were 0.0%, -0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.2%, respectively, while SHFE prices were 1.1%, 1.2%, 0.8%, and 2.6% [6][20][21]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report tracks three macroeconomic factors: 1. China's June export value increased by 6% year-on-year, with total exports amounting to $325.2 billion [6][27]. 2. U.S. inflation showed an uptick, with the June CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year [6][33]. 3. The European economic sentiment index continued to rise, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 49.5 [6][36]. Base Metals Analysis - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment remains strong, but market sentiment has cooled, leading to a price retreat. The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 10,000 tons, reaching 43.975 million tons, with production at 843,400 tons, a slight increase of 0.02% [6][40][41]. - The report indicates that the aluminum processing sector's operating rate decreased by 0.1%, averaging 58.7% as of July 24, 2025 [6][43]. - In terms of inventory, domestic aluminum ingot inventory rose by 36,000 tons to 577,000 tons, while global inventory increased by 42,300 tons to 1.2921 million tons [6][43][44]. Profitability Metrics - The report states that the immediate profit per ton for the aluminum industry remains above 3,500 yuan, with the current spot aluminum price at 20,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.19% increase [6][43].

美国流动性宽松预期强化，看多基本金属 20250627 摘要 美国 7 月面临多重关键事件：国会休会前夕的投票、对欧盟关税豁免到 期以及美联储潜在降息决策，这些因素共同影响商品市场和下半年流动 性预期，尤其是 7 月 4 日经济刺激法案落地与否至关重要。 美联储官员释放降息信号，主席鲍威尔暗示关税积极变化是降息条件， 市场传闻中美贸易缓和，若 7 月经济刺激落地，将形成宽财政和宽流动 性双重支持，利好基本金属需求和抗通胀能力。 COMEX 铜与 LME 铜价差扩大至 1,400 美元/吨，溢价率达 14.2%，主 因市场预期美国可能落地铜的 232 调查，叠加 LME 限制多单交易， COMEX 市场更为积极，推动价差走高，带动伦铜和沪铜走强。 国内铜市场远期价格疲软，远月合约从 Contango 转为 Backwardation，不利于权益投资，因股票市场偏好现货价格上涨且远 期基差扩大的走势，当前状况可能导致投资者对股票投资持谨慎态度。 宏观预期上调、流动性释放、现货低库存以及中报季临近，共同支撑基 本金属价格上行，业绩、宏观预期和短期交易行为共振，有望推动基本 金属价格上涨。 Q&A 2025 年 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in London base metal prices amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, while Citigroup remains bullish on copper prices, raising questions about the potential shift in market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Trends - London base metal prices are experiencing a widespread decline due to geopolitical tensions [1] - Citigroup's bullish outlook on copper prices suggests a potential divergence in market sentiment regarding copper compared to other base metals [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The article raises questions about whether the supply and demand landscape for base metals is truly changing in light of current events [1]

宏观局势反复，基本金属价格区间震荡 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 04 日 | 增持（维持） | 报告摘要 | 评级： | 【本周关键词】：美联储对降息持谨慎态度，法院叫停关税后被上诉暂缓，美国对钢 |  | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁及铝追加关税至 | 50%。 | 分析师：谢鸿鹤 | 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业"增持"评级。 |  | | | | | | | | | | | | 最新美联储会议纪要显示，面对不确定性，采取谨慎的货币政策是适当的，降息概率 | 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 | 下降。与此同时，美国关税政策变数不断，市场普遍抱有观望和担忧的心态。宏观局 | Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn | | | | | | | | | | | | | 势反复叠加基本面缺乏方向指引，预计短期基本金属价格区间震荡。长期在供需格局 | 分析师： ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from ANZ indicates that a weaker US dollar has boosted investor demand for copper, with basic metal prices expected to rise due to tight market supply [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose by 1.2% to $9,614 per ton [1] - Three-month aluminum increased by 0.4% to $2,466 per ton [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The depreciation of the US dollar has made commodities priced in dollars cheaper for international buyers, enhancing demand for copper [1] - Concerns about the economic backdrop have limited the price increases of other base metals [1] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that while market concerns are understandable, the slowdown in aluminum supply growth may keep the overall market tight [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting price increases in cobalt and antimony due to policy disruptions affecting supply and exports [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the basic metals sector, driven by macroeconomic improvements and strong fundamentals. It recommends specific stocks such as Shenhuo Co., Zijin Mining, and Jincheng Mining, while suggesting attention to China Aluminum and China Hongqiao [3][6]. - The suspension of cobalt exports by the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to alleviate the current oversupply situation in the short term, although long-term solutions are necessary to address ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][6]. - Domestic antimony prices are projected to remain strong due to tight raw material supplies and increased demand from downstream customers, despite a narrowing price gap with international markets [3][6]. Industry Overview Basic Metals - The report notes an increase in copper inventories, with Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper stock at 268,300 tons, up 8,246 tons week-on-week. COMEX inventory decreased to 93,481 tons, down 3,460 tons week-on-week [3][6]. - The report highlights the positive performance of basic metals in the medium to long term, with specific recommendations for stocks with growth potential in metal prices and production [3][6]. Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of Congo's decision to suspend cobalt exports for four months is expected to impact approximately 70,000 to 80,000 tons of supply, which is about 25% of the annual total, providing temporary relief to the oversupply situation [3][6]. - The report indicates that while this suspension may help in the short term, a long-term mechanism is needed to address the structural oversupply in the cobalt market [3][6]. Antimony Market - As of February 27, domestic antimony ingot prices reached 158,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.8% and a month-on-month increase of 11.3%. The report anticipates that domestic prices will continue to rise due to tight supply and increased demand [3][6]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with clear growth potential in tin and silver production, such as Xingye Silver Tin, and suggests attention to antimony sector stocks like Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Gold [3][6].