Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The seasonal trading volume of steel continues to shrink, and the market remains volatile. The black sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and there are few tradable points in terms of valuation and drivers. The market is gradually entering a holiday state, and the liquidity of the spot market is being compressed. The demand for building materials is expected to decline seasonally in the next two weeks, and the support from demand for the market is limited. The market can be treated with a sideways view, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for the entry of futures positions, and the hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate due to market sentiment. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. The demand side is generally flat, and there is little improvement in the short term. The supply side has high production despite poor profits for alloy plants, and the medium-term oversupply pressure remains. Macro policies are mostly positive, and industrial policies provide driving and cost support for the supply of the two alloys. Overall, the fundamentals of the two alloys continue to be under pressure, and the prices fluctuate [3]. - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious, and the trading sentiment has cooled. The coking coal trading volume has declined, and the actual trading atmosphere in the market is cold. The black market is in the off-season, and the trading is mainly affected by emotional funds. After a sharp decline in the short term, some varieties may rebound, but the black sector is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to cash in the spot before the holiday and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [3]. - The steel mill's molten iron production is basically stable. The 47-port daily average cargo clearance volume has increased significantly, and the port inventory has continued to rise and is higher than the same period last year. The steel mill's in-plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The short-term expectation of steel mill resumption and pre-holiday replenishment has supported the iron ore price, but the long-term pressure from port inventory remains. The iron ore market is expected to be in a sideways and slightly bullish pattern in the short term, but there is obvious upward pressure in the long term. It is recommended to short at the resistance level [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - On February 2, the closing prices of far-month contracts such as RB2610, HC2610, etc. declined compared with the previous day, with the decline rates ranging from -1.16% to -3.03%. The closing prices of near-month contracts such as RB2605, HC2605 also decreased, with the decline rates ranging from -1.24% to -3.42% [1]. - The spread between different contracts, such as the spread between RB2605 - RB2610, HC2605 - HC2610, etc., and the spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., also showed corresponding changes on February 2 [1]. Spot Market - On February 2, the spot prices of steel products such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, etc. declined to varying degrees, with the decline ranging from 0 to 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed, with the price of coking coal in some regions declining, and the price of coke in some regions remaining unchanged [1]. - The basis of different varieties, such as the basis of HC, RB, J, JM, etc., also showed corresponding changes on February 2 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways, and hot-rolled coil basis trading and futures-cash arbitrage can be considered. [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to rebound due to improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals remain under pressure in the medium term. [3] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by the off-season and limited upward and downward drivers. After the first round of coke price increase, pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] - Iron ore prices are supported in the short term by the "restart + restocking" expectation but face long-term pressure from port inventories. [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3203.00, 3330.00, 779.00, 1791.50, and 1242.50 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. [1] - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3157.00, 3308.00, 798.50, 1723.00, and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, also with varying increases. [1] - The cross-month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were -46.00, -22.00, 19.50, -68.50, and -77.50 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - The spreads/ratios/profits such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, rebar disk profit, and coking disk profit had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] Spot Market - On January 29, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3280.00, 3190.00, 3410.00, 2950.00, and 104.15 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes. [1] - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] - The spot prices of Qingdao Port super - special powder, etc. also had corresponding values and changes on January 29. [1] - The basis values of HC, RB, etc. and their changes on January 29 were provided. [1] Steel - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow. Traders are less willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for futures - cash positions, and hot - rolled coil futures - cash arbitrage can be rolled. [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating upwards. The demand is weak in the short term, and the supply is high in the medium term. The domestic macro - policy is favorable. In general, the short - term market sentiment dominates, and the prices may be strongly oscillating. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsuccessful bids. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rebound. The steel market is in a slow season, and the industry data is weak. The coal mine supply continues to recover, and the downstream has pre - Spring Festival restocking. The short - term first - round price increase and news drive the disk rebound, but pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is low. The expectation of steel mill restart and pre - Spring Festival restocking supports the iron ore price in the short term. After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. The short - term pattern is oscillating strongly, but the medium - long - term pressure is obvious. [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is in a state of narrow - range operation, with each sub - sector showing different trends. The steel market continues to be volatile, with limited upside and downside drivers; the coking coal and coke market is in an oscillating and weak state, and the iron ore market is in a short - term oscillating and strong pattern but faces long - term pressure from inventory [5][66][116] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron and steel production shows a slight increase, with iron water production fluctuating within a narrow range and scrap steel daily consumption increasing slightly. It is expected that after January, iron water production will rise, and the electric furnace will gradually reduce production during the Spring Festival, balancing the total output of crude steel [5] - **Demand**: Building materials demand shows obvious seasonality, and the demand for plates is weak in both supply and demand. The spot market lacks fluidity, and the overall demand support for the market is limited [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products has shifted from destocking to seasonal inventory accumulation, with slow inventory reduction for plates and high - inventory pressure for hot - rolled coils [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, and the basis of rebar decreases slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is at a relatively low - to - medium level, and the actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit [5] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage. The relative valuation is neutral [5] - **Macro and Risk Preference**: Commodity fluctuations increase, and there are structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to capital flow and rotation [5] - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The black market is in a state of range - bound operation. It is advisable to use an oscillating mindset for single - side trading, and continue rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider range or short - term long strategies; for arbitrage, focus on widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar; for cash - and - carry, continue rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [6] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The steel market enters the off - season, with overall weak industrial data. The demand for coking coal and coke weakens seasonally, and inventory accumulates. However, there is no excessive spot selling pressure, and the market mainly trades at a reasonable valuation [66] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mine production continues to increase but will peak before the Spring Festival. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, but market transactions are weak. The price of Australian coal continues to rise, and there is a continuous internal - external price inversion [66] - **Coke Supply**: Coke production remains stable, and the first round of price increases is temporarily postponed, with stable coking profits [66] - **Inventory**: Downstream inventory replenishment slows down, and the market sentiment weakens after the first - round price increase of coke is postponed [66] - **Basis/Spread**: The first - round price increase of coke is temporarily postponed, and the cost of the first - round price increase for the 05 - contract wet - quenched/dry - quenched coke is 1729/1756. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts drops to around 1120 [66] - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills increases slightly, while coking profits remain at a loss [66] - **Summary**: The coking coal and coke market is oscillating and weak. The first - round price increase of coke still has a chance to be implemented, but the upward driving force is insufficient. It is recommended to cash out spot stocks at high prices before the festival and wait for short - selling opportunities in the futures market after the price rises [66] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, cash out spot stocks at appropriate times and wait for short - selling opportunities in the futures market after the price rises; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [66] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipping volume rebounds, and the arrival volume in China also shows a mixed trend. Australian and non - mainstream ore arrivals increase, while Brazilian ore arrivals decrease [116] - **Demand**: Steel mill iron water production is basically stable, and it is expected to increase significantly in February. The daily port dredging volume decreases, and port inventory continues to be higher than the same period last year [116] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increases again, reaching a new high for the year, which is a long - term pressure factor for the iron ore market [116] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are at a low level [116] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively high [116] - **Summary**: In the short term, the iron ore market is in an oscillating and strong pattern due to factors such as inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival and expected production resumption in February. However, in the long term, port inventory pressure will be the main factor restricting the price [116] - **Investment View**: Neutral [116] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - term long positions and short positions at pressure levels for long - term trading; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [116]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The overall black market is in a range - bound oscillation, with no strong expectations for market drivers and valuations [3]. - The fundamentals of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon continue to be under pressure, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [4]. - The coking coal and coke sector oscillates, with insufficient spot - driven factors, and it is advisable to cash in on the spot and short on the futures after a rally [5]. - Iron ore is in a short - term oscillatingly strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the medium and long term [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market price of steel is stable, and the trading enthusiasm is average. The futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. Seasonal factors lead to a weakening of demand, and the support for the market is limited [3]. - Steel mills have a willingness to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. The willingness of traders to conduct open - position winter storage is not strong, and it is more suitable to participate through basis trading [3]. - The certainty of the increase in hot metal production increases, and there is support at low prices. The basis of hot - rolled coils is favorable for spot - futures arbitrage, and the spot - futures positive arbitrage of hot - rolled coils can still be rolled [3][7]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have rebounded with market sentiment, and there are occasional supply - side disturbance rumors [4]. - The demand is poor, and the overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply is high, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains [4]. - Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the expectations are prone to fluctuations, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline. Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices [4][7]. Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been shelved, the downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The price of coking coal has a slight increase, but the market transaction is still weak [5]. - The futures of coking coal and coke oscillate weakly. In the off - season, the industrial data is weak, and there is neither excessive spot pressure nor strong upward or downward drivers [5]. - The supply of coal mines has continued to recover, and the inventory pressure is not large. However, after the first - round coke price increase was shelved, the market sentiment has weakened. It is advisable to cash in on the spot at high prices before the Spring Festival and wait for short - selling opportunities on the futures after a rally [5][7]. Iron Ore - The in - plant inventory of steel mills is at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of steel mill复产 in February and pre - Spring Festival restocking support the short - term high price of iron ore [6][9]. - After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will become the root cause of the weakening of iron ore prices. It is recommended that short - term investors consider going long at low prices, and long - term investors short at pressure levels [6][9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory with a Weakening Tendency [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - The resumption of production and restocking support the upward oscillation of coking coal and coke; the speculative demand for glass and soda ash increases, leading to oscillatory movements [1] - Market sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, with alloy prices rising slightly [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated yesterday, with the spot price slightly adjusted by some manufacturers. The supply - demand contradiction has eased due to production line cold - repairs and increased consumer and speculative demand. The progress of cold - repairs and the sustainability of speculative demand should be monitored [1] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated and ended up rising. Short - term inventory reduction eases supply pressure, but long - term supply pressure remains due to increasing production capacity and limited demand from cold - repaired float glass production lines. Speculative demand provides short - term price support [1] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Silicomanganese**: Geopolitical instability and coal news have boosted market sentiment, driving up alloy futures prices. The fundamentals have improved, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill复产 and winter storage. Manganese ore prices support the silicomanganese price [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures perform well. The spot market is stable with strong cautious sentiment. Fundamentals are controllable, but inventory has increased due to slowed downstream procurement. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill复产 and winter storage. The impact of differential electricity price policies is limited [3] Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillatory [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillatory with a weakening tendency [2] - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillatory [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillatory [4] - **Inter - period**: None [2] - **Inter - variety**: None [2]