Core Viewpoint - YUMC reported a 4.4% year-over-year total revenue growth in 3Q25, with a 0.4 percentage point year-over-year operating profit margin (OPM) expansion, outperforming peers in the restaurant and catering sector [1] Group 1: 3Q Results Review - Total revenue for YUMC increased to US$3,206 million in 3Q25, aligning with expectations [1] - System sales (excluding foreign exchange effects) rose by 4.0% year-over-year, with same-store sales increasing by 1.0% year-over-year [1] - The pace of store openings accelerated, with net additions of 402 KFC and 154 PH stores in 3Q25, compared to 295 KFC and 99 PH in 2Q25 [1] - Franchise store format accounted for 41% of new KFC stores and 27% of new PH stores in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a strategic focus on leveraging franchisees [1] - Delivery sales contributions increased by 8 percentage points for KFC and 6 percentage points for PH year-over-year [1] - Restaurant margin slightly increased to 17.3%, with a cost ratio of food and paper at 31.3%, payroll at 26.2%, and occupancy at 25.2% [1] - General and administrative expenses remained flat year-over-year at 4.5%, reflecting disciplined cost control [1] - Operating profit margin rose to 12.5%, while investment loss narrowed to US$10 million in 3Q25 [1] - Reported shareholders' profit decreased by 5% year-over-year to US$282 million, in line with expectations [1] Group 2: Outlook - YUMC's long-term business strategy appears consistent, with an agile business model and positive feedback on new initiatives [2] - Strategic cooperation with franchisees is expected to enhance sales and improve free cash flow margins [2] - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) has been steady but may fluctuate due to the macroeconomic environment [2] - KFC and PH are anticipated to be less affected by delivery subsidy normalization in 2026 compared to other restaurant players [2] - Management targets a total capital return to shareholders of US$3.0 billion for 2025-26, equating to an average annual capital return of 8%-9% [2] - Average annual capital expenditure guidance remains at US$600-700 million from a long-term perspective [2] Group 3: Valuation - Topline forecasts for 2025-27 have been raised by 0.3%-0.8% due to accelerated store openings, particularly in franchise formats [3] - OPM forecasts have been slightly revised upward due to ongoing cost tailwinds and efficiency gains [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow at a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2027, considering a 3% average annual decline in shares outstanding [3] - The BUY rating is maintained with a target price of HK$428.00 (US$54.90) for YUMC-H, representing a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8x/19.2x for 2025-26 estimates [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in operations with a steady same-store sales growth and effective cost management, leading to a solid performance in Q3 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $3.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4%, while operating profit was $400 million, up 8% year-over-year, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1] - The operating profit margin improved to 12.5%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase year-over-year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $282 million, down 5% year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in Meituan's stock price; excluding investment losses, net profit increased by 7% year-over-year [1] Store Expansion and Brand Performance - The company added a record 536 new stores in Q3, with a total of 17,514 stores by the end of the quarter, including 12,640 KFC and 4,022 Pizza Hut locations [3] - The same-store sales growth for KFC was 2%, while Pizza Hut saw a 1% increase, with delivery sales growing by 32% year-over-year [2][3] Shareholder Returns - The company returned a total of $414 million to shareholders in Q3, with a total of $950 million returned in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] - The company plans to return approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders for the full year, maintaining guidance for $3 billion in shareholder returns for 2025-2026 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to $908 million, $986 million, and $1.049 billion, respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision [5] - The target price is adjusted to HKD 413.59, corresponding to a 2026 PE ratio of 18 times [5]

国信证券发布研报称，维持百胜中国(09987)"优于大市"评级，考虑投资收益的边际影响，调整2025- 2027年归母净利润预测至9.27/9.93/10.66亿美元(调整幅度-2.0%/0%/0%)，兼顾股份回购，EPS为 2.62/2.95/3.30美元。期内运营效率持续改善带动经营利润稳健增长，扩张计划也相对稳健，展望未来外 卖&业态产品创新驱动下同店有望持续呈现α改善态势，稳步推进的股东回报也贡献额外看点。 2025Q3，系统销售同增4%，其中肯德基/必胜客分别同增5%/4%;整体同店销售同增1%维持韧性增长 (Q1/Q2分别为0%/1%)，分品牌看，肯德基/必胜客分别同增2%/1%，其中肯德基交易量/客单价分别同比 +3%/-1%，必胜客执行高性价比产品策略，客单价仍同比继续走低，但交易量良好恢复下同增17%。 2025Q3门店净增536家，加盟占比继续提升 2025Q3门店净增536家，前三季度门店净增1119家，维持全年1600-1800家门店净增目标。期末门店总数 达17514家(肯德基/必胜客分别12640/4022家)。与此同时，2025Q3肯德基/必胜客加盟占比分别达到 41%/28%， ...

2025Q3，系统销售同增4%，其中肯德基/必胜客分别同增5%/4%;整体同店销售同增1%维持韧性增长 (Q1/Q2分别为0%/1%)，分品牌看，肯德基/必胜客分别同增2%/1%，其中肯德基交易量/客单价分别同比 +3%/-1%，必胜客执行高性价比产品策略，客单价仍同比继续走低，但交易量良好恢复下同增17%。 2025Q3门店净增536家，加盟占比继续提升 2025Q3门店净增536家，前三季度门店净增1119家，维持全年1600-1800家门店净增目标。期末门店总数 达17514家(肯德基/必胜客分别12640/4022家)。与此同时，2025Q3肯德基/必胜客加盟占比分别达到 41%/28%，加盟占比继续提升。截至2025三季度末，集团会员总数达到5.75亿，会员销售占比57%。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，维持百胜中国(09987)"优于大市"评级，考虑投资收益的边际 影响，调整2025-2027年归母净利润预测至9.27/9.93/10.66亿美元(调整幅度-2.0%/0%/0%)，兼顾股份回 购，EPS为2.62/2.95/3.30美元。期内运营效率持续改善带动经营利润稳健增长，扩张计划 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.942 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18.9% decline compared to the same period last year [1] - The net loss for the company has significantly reduced from 273 million yuan in the previous year to 84.079 million yuan, achieving a reduction of approximately 70% year-on-year [1] Operational Adjustments - The total number of stores for the company and its sub-brand Coucou has decreased to 937, with a net reduction of 134 stores compared to the same period last year, indicating a more cautious and refined operational strategy in response to market changes [3] - The company has implemented measures in supply chain management and logistics efficiency, including centralized procurement and optimized delivery routes to lower operational costs [1] Future Development Plans - The company plans to innovate membership services by introducing gift cards and differentiated member products to enhance customer experience and loyalty [3] - There is a strategy to rapidly expand online delivery services and launch new delivery products to meet consumer demand for convenient dining options [3] - The company aims to attract younger consumers and enhance brand influence through a strategic partnership with the well-known anime IP Doraemon [3] Market Position - As of August 29, the company's stock price was 0.81 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 880 million HKD, indicating ongoing challenges but a commitment to transformation and upgrading for more stable future development [3]

Core Insights - The competition between Meituan and Taobao Flash has intensified, with Meituan reporting a daily order volume of 150 million, a significant increase from 120 million, while Taobao Flash stabilized at 80 million orders, emphasizing that its figures do not include self-pickup or zero-cost purchases [4][11][21] - The analysis suggests that both platforms have reached a similar operational level, as the quality and structure of the order data must be considered alongside the raw numbers [4][11] Group 1: Meituan's Order Volume - Meituan's reported 150 million daily orders include a significant portion of self-pickup and zero-cost orders, which may not reflect true consumer demand [11][12] - The structure of Meituan's orders shows that 50 million came from promotional activities, with a substantial number likely being self-pickup orders [11][15] - The average monthly income for Meituan's delivery riders is reported at 9,793 yuan, which is lower than Taobao Flash's 12,500 yuan, indicating a potential discrepancy in effective order volume between the two platforms [15] Group 2: Taobao Flash's Strategies - Taobao Flash has employed various strategic maneuvers, such as "surrounding the enemy" and "taking advantage of the fire," to capture market share from Meituan [17][18] - The platform's initial launch included significant subsidies that diverted 15% of Meituan's daily orders, showcasing its effective market penetration strategy [17] - Recent tactics include creating a facade of aggressive competition while maintaining a steady approach to subsidies, leading competitors to overextend their resources [18][19] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics suggest a 1:1 competitive stance between Meituan and Taobao Flash, with both platforms vying for consumer attention through aggressive promotional strategies [16][20] - The long-term sustainability of these strategies is uncertain, as Meituan's established market presence poses a significant challenge for Taobao Flash [20] - The focus on short-term order volume through aggressive subsidies may detract from the overall consumer experience, raising concerns about the long-term viability of such strategies [21]