Report Overview - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, analyzing their prices, supply, demand, cost, inventory, and providing后市研判 [6][8] Industrial Silicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygenated was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the 421 oxygenated was 9,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton [6][11] Supply - Xinjiang's开工率 remained stable with a slight expected increase next week; Northwest regions had little change; Yunnan's开工率 was expected to decline in December due to higher costs; Sichuan's开工率 would further decrease in December. Overall, production increased slightly [6] Demand - Polysilicon's weekly开工率 decreased, with mixed production expectations in December; organic silicon's开工率 increased slightly, with a potential decline in December; aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 was stable, supported by good terminal demand. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,100 tons, a 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year decrease [6] Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6] Inventory - As of November 27, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 550,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [7] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and high inventory is being depleted slowly. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with attention on northern开工 changes and downstream production cuts [7] Polysilicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The futures main contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton [8] Supply - Silicon material enterprises were firm on price stability. In November, two leading enterprises significantly reduced production, and the polysilicon output decreased significantly compared to October. The weekly开工率 decreased, and the production expectations in December were mixed, with a limited decrease compared to November [8] Demand - Terminal demand is weak, with component prices weakly stable, and silicon wafer and battery prices continuing to fall. The silicon wafer segment has reduced production, but there is no significant reduction in procurement plans. In October, polysilicon imports were 1,446.4 tons, a 12% month - on - month increase; in September, exports were 1,547.9 tons, a 28% month - on - month decrease [8] Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [8] Inventory - As of November 28, the polysilicon factory inventory was 278,300 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons from the previous week [8][26] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are weak, and inventory remains high. Supported by anti - involution policies and market expectations, it is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term, with attention on policy implementation [8] Downstream Markets Silicon Wafers - As of November 28, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) decreased compared to the previous week. Prices are approaching most manufacturers' cash cost lines, and significant production cuts are expected in December [30] Batteries - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of M10, G10L, G12R, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared to the previous week. The battery market is weakening, with increased price declines and weakened demand support. Some leading enterprises may lock in inventory to support prices [34] Components - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of 182 and 210 single - sided and double - sided TOPCon components remained unchanged from the previous week. The component market is weakly stable, with a weak distributed market. Leading enterprises hold firm on prices, while second - and third - tier manufacturers still sell at low prices [38] Organic Silicon - As of November 28, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The industry's开工率 increased slightly this week, and there are expectations of production cuts after the industry meeting [42] Aluminum Alloys - As of November 28, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 is basically stable, with good terminal demand [46]

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. However, after the holiday, as the downstream restocking pace slows, there is a risk of price decline. The market is affected by factors such as new production line launches, downstream psychological price expectations, and inventory levels [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term supply and demand situation is acceptable, but there is uncertainty in the future. The market is influenced by factors like the upcoming dry season in the southwest, production increase expectations in Xinjiang, and the "production - limiting and sales - controlling" plan in the polysilicon industry [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals are weak. Despite rumors of production cuts, companies have not yet taken action, leading to inventory accumulation. The market is also affected by policy expectations and downstream demand weakening [8]. Trading Strategies - **Carbonate Lithium**: Upstream companies should seize opportunities to sell and hedge when prices rise, while downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges. The support level for the main contract is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance level is 75,000 - 76,000 yuan [5][14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The support interval is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, and the resistance interval is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan. In the face of increased overseas risks and macro - factor disturbances, investors should manage risks and trade with light positions [7][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Consider short - selling on rebounds. The support interval for the main contract is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, and the resistance interval is 52,000 - 53,000 yuan [8]. Group 2: First Part - Spot Prices 1. Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium 11**: The market logic is strong supply and demand with a weakening atmosphere. The support is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, the pressure is 75,000 - 76,000 yuan, the market is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Upstream companies should sell and hedge when prices rise, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges [14]. - **Industrial Silicon 11**: Short - term supply and demand are acceptable, but there is high uncertainty in the future. The support is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, the pressure is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Adopt an interval trading strategy [14]. - **Polysilicon 11**: The weakening trend at the terminal may gradually spread upstream. The support is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, the pressure is 52,000 - 53,000 yuan, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Price Changes - **Carbonate Lithium**: The closing price is 72,280 yuan, with a decline of 0.63%. The trading volume is 282,178, the open interest is 207,463, with a decrease of 14,456 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 36,718 [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price is 8,805 yuan, with an increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 241,553, the open interest is 165,722, with a decrease of 1,313 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 50,854 [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price is 48,740 yuan, with a decline of 2.35%. The trading volume is 246,976, the open interest is 87,665, with a decrease of 3,344 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7,900 [15]. Group 3: Second Part - Fundamental Situation 1. Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - The report includes figures on monthly production capacity, device operating rate, monthly output, and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, as well as inventory in smelters and downstream [22][24]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the production capacity, device operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, monthly operating rate of SMM ternary materials, and monthly output of lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented [26][28]. 2. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - Figures on the sample operating rate of main production areas, weekly output of main production areas, weekly inventory of delivery warehouses in various regions, and weekly inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang and Sichuan are provided [32][34]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the monthly output of China's organic silicon DMC and the operating rate of aluminum alloy are shown [36]. 3. Polysilicon Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - Figures on the total inventory and monthly output of polysilicon in China are included [40][41]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the monthly output of silicon wafers and the monthly output of photovoltaic - Chinese components are presented [45].

Core Viewpoint - The multi-crystalline silicon market in China remains stable with slight price fluctuations, driven by supply-demand dynamics and production adjustments by manufacturers [1][2]. Price Summary - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 46,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week [1]. - The average transaction price for n-type granular silicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.17% [1][2]. - The main order prices for rod silicon remain stable, while smaller orders and granular silicon prices have increased by 1 yuan/kg [1]. Market Dynamics - The number of main signing enterprises in the multi-crystalline silicon market has decreased to 3-4, indicating a reduction in market activity [1]. - One new silicon material enterprise has resumed production, bringing the total number of operating multi-crystalline silicon enterprises in China to 10 [1]. - Companies are independently reducing production and controlling sales, while downstream demand for inventory has increased, contributing to a bullish sentiment in the industry [1]. Production Outlook - The expected production volume for September is around 125,000 to 130,000 tons, down from the original planned production of 140,000 tons [1]. - Silicon wafer enterprises plan to reduce their operating rates to alleviate supply-demand pressure in the silicon wafer segment [1]. - The multi-crystalline silicon segment continues to face inventory accumulation risks, indicating that the supply-demand fundamentals have not significantly improved [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with high industry inventory pressure. The sudden production cut by Xinjiang silicon enterprises on the supply - side has supported the short - term silicon price, but the long - term oversupply situation remains [1]. - The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level driven by the increase in industrial silicon prices. However, due to the industry's overcapacity adjustment that requires time to be transmitted, the rebound space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.02% to 8,030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Northern silicon enterprises'开工 has changed little. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise 开工. The overall supply is increasing steadily [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. Organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak. The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and the actual transaction price has declined. The overall 开工 of domestic monomer enterprises has declined, and the demand for industrial silicon has further weakened. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the sudden production cut by Xinjiang silicon enterprises has supported the silicon price. In the long term, the oversupply situation remains, and continuous attention should be paid to the actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Data**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon dense material remained flat at 30.0 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 28.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 5.04% to 33,315 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, but overall it will remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, slow - growing market demand, and weak transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level, but the rebound space may be limited. Continuous attention should be paid to the actual 开工 situation of the industrial chain [1]. Other Information - From June 20th to June 26th, the weekly output of sample silicon plants in Xinjiang was 34,220 tons, and the weekly 开工 rate was 71%, an increase from the previous week. Recently, news of production cuts by a large Xinjiang enterprise has spread, with more than 20 furnaces shut down, and the daily impact on production is expected to be about 1,500 - 1,700 tons. The duration of the production cut is uncertain, and the expected national supply in July has been lowered [1]. - On June 26th, Swiss solar panel manufacturer Meyer Burger applied for bankruptcy protection in the United States [1]. - Sunkind Energy has signed an agreement with Hangzhou ConfirmWare Technology Co., Ltd. to establish a 4GW solar battery pack production capacity in India [1].

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net loss of RMB 263.01 million, with total revenue of RMB 3,198.89 million and operating costs of RMB 3,006.23 million, indicating multiple negative factors have been released [1] - The multi-crystalline silicon supply-demand situation is slowly improving, with the industry expected to remain under pressure in 2025 due to high inventory levels and weak demand [1] - The company’s revenue composition for 2024 shows that multi-crystalline silicon accounts for 37.4%, while wind and solar power station construction and operation account for 35.9% and 11.3% respectively, suggesting that the company's value is severely underestimated when considering its renewable energy assets [1] Group 2 - The company has been given a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 5.66 per share, representing a potential upside of 32% based on a projected 8x PE for 2026 [2]