Report Overview - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, analyzing their prices, supply, demand, cost, inventory, and providing后市研判 [6][8] Industrial Silicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygenated was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the 421 oxygenated was 9,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton [6][11] Supply - Xinjiang's开工率 remained stable with a slight expected increase next week; Northwest regions had little change; Yunnan's开工率 was expected to decline in December due to higher costs; Sichuan's开工率 would further decrease in December. Overall, production increased slightly [6] Demand - Polysilicon's weekly开工率 decreased, with mixed production expectations in December; organic silicon's开工率 increased slightly, with a potential decline in December; aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 was stable, supported by good terminal demand. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,100 tons, a 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year decrease [6] Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6] Inventory - As of November 27, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 550,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [7] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and high inventory is being depleted slowly. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with attention on northern开工 changes and downstream production cuts [7] Polysilicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The futures main contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton [8] Supply - Silicon material enterprises were firm on price stability. In November, two leading enterprises significantly reduced production, and the polysilicon output decreased significantly compared to October. The weekly开工率 decreased, and the production expectations in December were mixed, with a limited decrease compared to November [8] Demand - Terminal demand is weak, with component prices weakly stable, and silicon wafer and battery prices continuing to fall. The silicon wafer segment has reduced production, but there is no significant reduction in procurement plans. In October, polysilicon imports were 1,446.4 tons, a 12% month - on - month increase; in September, exports were 1,547.9 tons, a 28% month - on - month decrease [8] Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [8] Inventory - As of November 28, the polysilicon factory inventory was 278,300 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons from the previous week [8][26] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are weak, and inventory remains high. Supported by anti - involution policies and market expectations, it is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term, with attention on policy implementation [8] Downstream Markets Silicon Wafers - As of November 28, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) decreased compared to the previous week. Prices are approaching most manufacturers' cash cost lines, and significant production cuts are expected in December [30] Batteries - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of M10, G10L, G12R, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared to the previous week. The battery market is weakening, with increased price declines and weakened demand support. Some leading enterprises may lock in inventory to support prices [34] Components - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of 182 and 210 single - sided and double - sided TOPCon components remained unchanged from the previous week. The component market is weakly stable, with a weak distributed market. Leading enterprises hold firm on prices, while second - and third - tier manufacturers still sell at low prices [38] Organic Silicon - As of November 28, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The industry's开工率 increased slightly this week, and there are expectations of production cuts after the industry meeting [42] Aluminum Alloys - As of November 28, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 is basically stable, with good terminal demand [46]

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. However, after the holiday, as the downstream restocking pace slows, there is a risk of price decline. The market is affected by factors such as new production line launches, downstream psychological price expectations, and inventory levels [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term supply and demand situation is acceptable, but there is uncertainty in the future. The market is influenced by factors like the upcoming dry season in the southwest, production increase expectations in Xinjiang, and the "production - limiting and sales - controlling" plan in the polysilicon industry [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals are weak. Despite rumors of production cuts, companies have not yet taken action, leading to inventory accumulation. The market is also affected by policy expectations and downstream demand weakening [8]. Trading Strategies - **Carbonate Lithium**: Upstream companies should seize opportunities to sell and hedge when prices rise, while downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges. The support level for the main contract is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance level is 75,000 - 76,000 yuan [5][14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The support interval is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, and the resistance interval is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan. In the face of increased overseas risks and macro - factor disturbances, investors should manage risks and trade with light positions [7][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Consider short - selling on rebounds. The support interval for the main contract is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, and the resistance interval is 52,000 - 53,000 yuan [8]. Group 2: First Part - Spot Prices 1. Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium 11**: The market logic is strong supply and demand with a weakening atmosphere. The support is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, the pressure is 75,000 - 76,000 yuan, the market is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Upstream companies should sell and hedge when prices rise, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges [14]. - **Industrial Silicon 11**: Short - term supply and demand are acceptable, but there is high uncertainty in the future. The support is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, the pressure is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Adopt an interval trading strategy [14]. - **Polysilicon 11**: The weakening trend at the terminal may gradually spread upstream. The support is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, the pressure is 52,000 - 53,000 yuan, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Price Changes - **Carbonate Lithium**: The closing price is 72,280 yuan, with a decline of 0.63%. The trading volume is 282,178, the open interest is 207,463, with a decrease of 14,456 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 36,718 [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price is 8,805 yuan, with an increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 241,553, the open interest is 165,722, with a decrease of 1,313 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 50,854 [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price is 48,740 yuan, with a decline of 2.35%. The trading volume is 246,976, the open interest is 87,665, with a decrease of 3,344 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7,900 [15]. Group 3: Second Part - Fundamental Situation 1. Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - The report includes figures on monthly production capacity, device operating rate, monthly output, and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, as well as inventory in smelters and downstream [22][24]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the production capacity, device operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, monthly operating rate of SMM ternary materials, and monthly output of lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented [26][28]. 2. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - Figures on the sample operating rate of main production areas, weekly output of main production areas, weekly inventory of delivery warehouses in various regions, and weekly inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang and Sichuan are provided [32][34]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the monthly output of China's organic silicon DMC and the operating rate of aluminum alloy are shown [36]. 3. Polysilicon Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - Figures on the total inventory and monthly output of polysilicon in China are included [40][41]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the monthly output of silicon wafers and the monthly output of photovoltaic - Chinese components are presented [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price continued its rebound trend, with the Si2511 closing at 9000 yuan/ton, up 4.83%. The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, but the fundamental driving force was not obvious. The market was expected to fluctuate based on the spot price in the short - term [4] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price continued to rebound. The Si2511 closed at 9000 yuan/ton, with a 4.83% increase, a trading volume of 662196 lots, and an open interest of 271943 lots, a net increase of 33258 lots [4] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of 553 grade in Inner Mongolia was 8800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8850 yuan/ton. The price of 421 grade in Inner Mongolia was 9700 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9950 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand both increased, and the fundamental driving force was not obvious. The weekly output of industrial silicon increased to 8.35 tons (37 tons monthly) due to the resumption of production in the southwest and Xinjiang. The demand increase was smaller than the supply increase. The production schedule of polysilicon in August would increase to 12.50 tons. The market was expected to fluctuate based on the spot price in the short - term [4] 3.2 Market News - On August 11, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50760 lots, a net increase of 420 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data on August 7, China imported 3560.9 million tons of coal and lignite in July, a month - on - month increase of 257.2 million tons or 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25730.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals' improvement of industrial silicon has reached a dead - end, and the price is oscillating and waiting for a direction. The supply - demand situation is in a loose pattern with both supply and demand increasing. The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but there is no actual anti - involution policy, and the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing. The support for the futures price lies in the recent strengthening of cost - related varieties. It is expected to continue the current range - bound operation [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Industrial silicon futures prices continued to rebound. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,655 yuan/ton, with a 0.46% increase. The trading volume was 396,110 lots, and the open interest was 224,390 lots, with a net increase of 15,654 lots [4] - **Spot Price**: Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,850 yuan/ton [4] - **Future Outlook**: In the fundamentals, the resumption of production in the southwest production areas has driven the output to continuously increase. The weekly output in the first week of August increased to 78,600 tons (this output converted to monthly output will increase to 348,100 tons). On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August has increased, and the monthly output demand is expected to reach 125,000 tons, but the incremental demand will be digested by the existing industrial silicon production increase. The output of organic silicon has remained generally stable, and there is a lack of short - term increment. The supply - demand of industrial silicon has increased simultaneously, maintaining a loose pattern [4] 3.2 Market News - On August 7th, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,475 lots, a net decrease of 105 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - According to the data of the General Administration of Customs on August 7th, China imported 3.5609 million tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 257,200 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25.7305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with high industry inventory pressure. The sudden production cut by Xinjiang silicon enterprises on the supply - side has supported the short - term silicon price, but the long - term oversupply situation remains [1]. - The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level driven by the increase in industrial silicon prices. However, due to the industry's overcapacity adjustment that requires time to be transmitted, the rebound space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.02% to 8,030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Northern silicon enterprises'开工 has changed little. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise 开工. The overall supply is increasing steadily [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. Organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak. The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and the actual transaction price has declined. The overall 开工 of domestic monomer enterprises has declined, and the demand for industrial silicon has further weakened. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the sudden production cut by Xinjiang silicon enterprises has supported the silicon price. In the long term, the oversupply situation remains, and continuous attention should be paid to the actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Data**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon dense material remained flat at 30.0 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 28.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 5.04% to 33,315 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, but overall it will remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, slow - growing market demand, and weak transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level, but the rebound space may be limited. Continuous attention should be paid to the actual 开工 situation of the industrial chain [1]. Other Information - From June 20th to June 26th, the weekly output of sample silicon plants in Xinjiang was 34,220 tons, and the weekly 开工 rate was 71%, an increase from the previous week. Recently, news of production cuts by a large Xinjiang enterprise has spread, with more than 20 furnaces shut down, and the daily impact on production is expected to be about 1,500 - 1,700 tons. The duration of the production cut is uncertain, and the expected national supply in July has been lowered [1]. - On June 26th, Swiss solar panel manufacturer Meyer Burger applied for bankruptcy protection in the United States [1]. - Sunkind Energy has signed an agreement with Hangzhou ConfirmWare Technology Co., Ltd. to establish a 4GW solar battery pack production capacity in India [1].

Supply Side - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase of 1.92%, reaching 7445.0 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] - Weekly production data from major regions indicates an increase: Xinjiang's production rose by 4450 tons to 31570 tons, Yunnan's by 380 tons to 1360 tons, and Sichuan's by 3320 tons to 4460 tons [1] - A new silicon plant in Sichuan is expected to start production in February 2025, contributing to higher regional capacity and a current operating rate of approximately 24% [1] Demand Side - The demand for industrial silicon is primarily driven by the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors [2] - The organic silicon market is experiencing price stability, but production cuts are negatively impacting industrial silicon demand [2] - Polysilicon producers are reducing output, leading to a decline in demand for industrial silicon, with prices for downstream silicon wafers and battery cells also decreasing [2] - The aluminum alloy sector shows some demand from consumer electronics and automotive industries, but overall inventory levels are rising, leading to weaker prices [2] Inventory Trends - The industry is experiencing a trend of increasing inventory, with total industry stock continuing to grow and weak inventory depletion at factories [2] - Market sentiment is improving slightly, leading to a rebound in prices, but concerns about supply-demand imbalances persist [2]