PP2601合约
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PP日报:震荡运行-20251211
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 09:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products are starting to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments and industry associations, held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs of disorderly price competition, which provided some support for bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remained unchanged, and there was no further macro - level positive news. The spot trading atmosphere was light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new production capacity of plastics being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has dropped. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. The market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, and traders offer discounts to stimulate transactions. Although relevant meetings have provided some support for bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and the macro - level has no further positive news. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 6,167 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,232 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,177 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.26%. The position volume decreased by 28,910 lots to 351,293 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,010 - 6,380 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The early - morning petrochemical inventory on Thursday remained flat week - on - week at 690,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 02 contract dropped below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $745 per ton [6]
PP日报:震荡运行-20251202
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 12:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP downstream demand is in the late peak season, with limited follow - up of orders. The supply has new capacity put into operation and an increase in maintenance devices. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream start - up rate rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawing materials rose to about 28.5% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly and is now at a high level in the same period in recent years. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices, and the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of Guangxi Petrochemical of CNPC was put into operation in mid - October [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting on price competition gave some boost to bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remained unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP was limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6391 yuan/ton, the highest was 6426 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6410 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.08%. The position decreased by 19,931 lots to 469,013 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions showed mixed trends. The drawing materials were reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 28, the downstream start - up rate of PP rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 735,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 02 fluctuated around $63/barrel, and China CFR propylene price rose by $15/ton week - on - week to $750/ton [4]
PP日报:震荡运行-20251113
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 11:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile movements in the near term. The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and the inventory reduction of petrochemicals is normal. The supply - side has new production capacity put into operation and an increase in maintenance devices, and the cost - side crude oil price has declined [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as the old line of CNOOC Daxie were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 82%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 24%. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil supply surplus has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in oil prices. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year put into operation at PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6480 yuan/ton, up 0.39%, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 8169 lots to 628,423 lots [2]. - **Spot**: PP spot prices in most regions remained stable, with drawstring prices ranging from 6260 to 6570 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as the old line of CNOOC Daxie were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, a neutral - low level [7]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending November 7th, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than the same period last year [7]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons week - on - week, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [7]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10 per ton to $720 per ton [7].
PP日报:震荡下行-20251105
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as the increase in PP enterprise operating rate, the lower - than - expected demand during the peak season, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 23% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently, it is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders met market expectations, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] - Although it is the peak season for downstream industries, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased week - on - week, the demand during the peak season was lower than expected, and there was a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which had limited impact on the market [1] - After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and traders generally offered discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - There has been no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry, and anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,477 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,552 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,491 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.13%. The open interest increased by 16,153 lots to 644,601 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined, with drawstring reported at 6,330 - 6,610 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending October 31st, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the morning petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 01 fluctuated around $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $15 per ton to $740 per ton week - on - week [4]
PP日报:震荡下行-20251031
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 12:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - PP downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. Although cost increases and macro - warming have promoted a short - term rebound in PP, its upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On October 31st, new maintenance devices were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 29% [1][4] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries did not change fundamentally. Crude oil prices fluctuated [1] - In terms of supply, a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices increased recently [1] - The weather has improved, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season. Although most PP downstream industries are expected to continue to rise, the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. The stocking demand after the National Day has weakened, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - There is no actual anti - involution policy in the PP industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,582 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,669 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,590 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.21%. The position increased by 11,355 lots to 624,690 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,390 - 6,670 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 31st, new maintenance devices were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 80%, a moderately low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of October 31st, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons week - on - week, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 01 dropped to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [5]
PP日报:震荡上行-20251023
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 10:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has pushed the price of PP to rebound, but PP lacks the internal momentum to drive significant price hikes. It is expected that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn dropped to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, due to the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the US sanctions on important Russian oil companies, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from its low level [1] - In terms of supply, new production capacities have been put into operation, and recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased [1] - Although the weather has improved and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. After the National Day, the stocking demand has weakened periodically, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - China and the United States are charging special port fees on each other's ships, increasing concerns about economic growth. There are no actual policies for anti - involution in the PP industry yet, but anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6616 yuan/ton, the highest was 6710 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6691 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.27%. The position volume decreased by 14,771 lots to 618,484 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The price of drawn yarn was reported at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons, which was 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $15/ton to $760/ton week - on - week [4]