【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025年12月11日 【行情分析】 PP日报：震荡运行 截至12月5日当周，PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期。12月11 日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在84%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例下跌 至25.5%左右。近期石化去库缓慢，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，伊拉克部分前期 故障油田恢复生产，叠加欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能40万吨/ 年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单开始 下降，BOPP膜价格再次下跌，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激 成交。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标 准等相关工作，给予大宗商品一定提振，但PP供需格局整体未改，宏观暂未有进一步利好，现货成 交氛围清淡，预计近期PP偏弱震荡。由于塑料年内仍有新增产能投产可能叠加农膜旺季逐步退出， 预计L ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.26个百分点至53.83%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率环比下降0.14个百分点至44.1%，塑编订单环比持平，略低于去年同期。12月2日，新增东莞 巨正源二期一线、二线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至81%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生 产比例上涨至28.5%左右。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，俄罗 斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普 政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大，原 油价格低位震荡。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有 增加。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单跟进持续性有限，BOPP膜价格下跌，市场缺乏大规模集中采 购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会 召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品一定提振，但塑料供需 格局整体未改，预计近期PP上行空间有限。 【期现行情】 期货方 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile movements in the near term. The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and the inventory reduction of petrochemicals is normal. The supply - side has new production capacity put into operation and an increase in maintenance devices, and the cost - side crude oil price has declined [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as the old line of CNOOC Daxie were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 82%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 24%. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil supply surplus has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in oil prices. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year put into operation at PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6480 yuan/ton, up 0.39%, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 8169 lots to 628,423 lots [2]. - **Spot**: PP spot prices in most regions remained stable, with drawstring prices ranging from 6260 to 6570 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as the old line of CNOOC Daxie were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, a neutral - low level [7]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending November 7th, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than the same period last year [7]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons week - on - week, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [7]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10 per ton to $720 per ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as the increase in PP enterprise operating rate, the lower - than - expected demand during the peak season, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 23% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently, it is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders met market expectations, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] - Although it is the peak season for downstream industries, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased week - on - week, the demand during the peak season was lower than expected, and there was a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which had limited impact on the market [1] - After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and traders generally offered discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - There has been no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry, and anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,477 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,552 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,491 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.13%. The open interest increased by 16,153 lots to 644,601 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined, with drawstring reported at 6,330 - 6,610 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending October 31st, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the morning petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 01 fluctuated around $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $15 per ton to $740 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - PP downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. Although cost increases and macro - warming have promoted a short - term rebound in PP, its upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On October 31st, new maintenance devices were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 29% [1][4] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries did not change fundamentally. Crude oil prices fluctuated [1] - In terms of supply, a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices increased recently [1] - The weather has improved, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season. Although most PP downstream industries are expected to continue to rise, the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. The stocking demand after the National Day has weakened, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - There is no actual anti - involution policy in the PP industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,582 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,669 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,590 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.21%. The position increased by 11,355 lots to 624,690 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,390 - 6,670 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 31st, new maintenance devices were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 80%, a moderately low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of October 31st, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons week - on - week, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 01 dropped to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has pushed the price of PP to rebound, but PP lacks the internal momentum to drive significant price hikes. It is expected that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn dropped to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, due to the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the US sanctions on important Russian oil companies, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from its low level [1] - In terms of supply, new production capacities have been put into operation, and recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased [1] - Although the weather has improved and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. After the National Day, the stocking demand has weakened periodically, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - China and the United States are charging special port fees on each other's ships, increasing concerns about economic growth. There are no actual policies for anti - involution in the PP industry yet, but anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6616 yuan/ton, the highest was 6710 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6691 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.27%. The position volume decreased by 14,771 lots to 618,484 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The price of drawn yarn was reported at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons, which was 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $15/ton to $760/ton week - on - week [4]