2026 年银行股投资策略展望 20251208 摘要 预计 2026 年中国宏观经济增速约为 4.8%，货币环境保持适度宽松， 存在降息空间，这将有助于缓解商业银行的息差压力。 预测 2026 年商业银行营收和利润增速将提升至 2.7%-3%左右，主要 受益于息差降幅收窄和利息净收入恢复正增长，但金融市场波动可能带 来一定负面影响。 国有银行和城商行扩表动能依然强劲，总资产增速维持在 10%以上，尤 其是在川渝、山东、上海等经济大省，区域性城商行扩表具备较好支撑。 中小型银行息差韧性优于大型国有行，部分优质城商行如南京银行、成 都银行、重庆银行等，凭借较强的贷款组织能力和资本充足率，业绩增 速有望跑赢整体上市银行。 预计 2026 年非信贷收入将呈现负增长，但手续费收入受益于资本市场 发展和减费影响消退，将保持正增长，整体营收增速预计将从 2025 年 的 1.2%提升至接近 3%。 信用成本率预计明年略微下降，对公业务延续改善趋势，但零售领域仍 面临压力，房地产市场企稳是关键。政府化债和风险化解有助于企业对 公资产质量保持健康。 当前银行股主动筹码处于历史低位，公募持股比例仅占 1.5%，为十年 新低，意 ...

美联储沃勒：美国企业面临的货币环境宽松，但普通家庭并非如此。 来源：滚动播报 ...

国债期货 | 周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 短期内预计国债期货区间震荡 核心观点 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货：短期内预计国债期货区间震荡 上周国债期货震荡整理。目前国债期货处于上下空间均有所受 限的状态。中长期来看我国内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，最新统 计局公布的消费与投资数据均表现偏弱，稳定宏观内需需要偏宽松 的货币环境，国债期货中长期的支撑力量较强。不过短期来看今年 经济数据表现具备韧性，年末继续加码宽松的必要性不高，特别是 近期海外美联储降息预期有所反复，短期内降息的可能性不高，国 债期货上行动能有限。总的来说，短期内国债期货以震荡整理为主。 国债期货 │ 周报 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格号：F3035632 投资咨询号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰 ...

Investment Logic - The recent decline in international gold prices follows a strong upward trend, influenced by a stronger US dollar, high interest rates, and a recovery in global risk appetite [2][5] - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is crucial; a strong dollar increases the cost of purchasing gold for non-dollar investors, leading to decreased demand [3][4] - High interest rates have made holding gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold rises [4][5] - The previous surge in gold prices was driven by heightened geopolitical and financial risks, but this "safe-haven" demand is now diminishing as global stock indices rise and recession fears recede [5] Consumption Logic - Domestic gold jewelry prices are influenced by international gold prices but often show a lag due to factors like pricing strategies, processing upgrades, and brand premiums [6][7] - Brand premiums in the domestic market can lead to retail prices being significantly higher than the raw material costs, with some brands showing a premium of 20%-25% over the gold material price [7] - The demand for gold jewelry is evolving, with younger consumers redefining gold as an investment product rather than just a traditional wedding item, leading to increased spending on gold jewelry [8][9] Future Outlook - Future gold price movements will be shaped by macroeconomic policies and changes in consumer behavior, with potential for price increases if central banks adopt more accommodative stances [10][11] - The domestic gold jewelry market is expected to continue evolving, with trends towards branding, design, and smaller weights, driven by changing consumer preferences [10][11] - Understanding the dual logic of gold as both an investment and a consumer product will be crucial for investors, consumers, and brands in navigating the market [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for Treasury bond futures is mainly characterized by consolidation, with limited upside and downside potential. Short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased, but medium - and long - term expectations of a loose monetary policy remain. The market is supported by the need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient domestic effective demand, but short - term upward momentum is lacking as the macro - economic data shows strong resilience and the necessity for a full - scale interest rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall view of "sideways". The core logic is that short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased while medium - and long - term expectations of a loose policy remain [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties TL, T, TF, and TS have an intraday view of "sideways with a weak bias" and a medium - term view of "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures consolidated yesterday. After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, Sino - US economic and trade issues have been substantially eased, reducing uncertainty risks. Domestically, although there is a need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient effective demand, the macro - economic data shows strong resilience, making a full - scale interest rate cut less necessary. Therefore, in the short term, Treasury bond futures have limited upside and downside potential and will mainly consolidate [5].

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in international gold prices reaching a historical high of $3749.27 per ounce and silver prices nearing $44 per ounce has sparked discussions about a potential new bull market in commodities [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary driver behind the recent rise in gold prices is the strong market expectation for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite Chairman Powell's cautious stance on rapid policy adjustments [3] - The overall commodity market is showing signs of recovery, with international oil prices steadily rising and industrial metal prices rebounding from previous lows [3][4] - The fundamental price fluctuations in commodities are rooted in the dynamic balance of supply and demand, influenced by global supply chain restructuring and extreme weather conditions [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - On the supply side, insufficient investment in the mining and energy sectors over the past few years has limited capacity release, leading to structural supply gaps [4] - For instance, major copper mining companies are expected to cover only 3% of the demand growth from 2023 to 2024, while demand from sectors like renewable energy is growing at 8%-10% [4] - Demand is bolstered by various national "new infrastructure" and "energy transition" plans, particularly in China and Europe, which are driving the need for industrial commodities [6] Group 3: Policy and Monetary Environment - Global consensus on "stabilizing growth" has led to increased support for infrastructure and manufacturing investments, significantly impacting industrial commodity demand [6] - The U.S. plans to invest $369 billion in clean energy over the next decade, creating long-term demand for commodities [6] - The end of the interest rate hike cycle by major central banks and expectations of future rate cuts are contributing to a weaker dollar, which enhances the relative value of commodities [7] Group 4: Short-term Catalysts - Geopolitical tensions and inventory cycle changes can amplify commodity price volatility, acting as catalysts for a bull market [9] - Current geopolitical issues, such as tensions in the Middle East, have affected oil transport safety, leading to oil prices exceeding $90 per barrel [9] - Low inventory levels across major commodities, including a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, suggest that any marginal improvement in demand could lead to a price surge [9] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Companies in the commodity sector should focus on understanding cyclical changes and leverage tools like futures and options to hedge against price volatility [11] - Emphasizing the importance of digital transformation in risk management, companies can enhance decision-making accuracy and operational efficiency through integrated solutions [13][14]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that solid fundamentals are crucial for successful investing [2] - The article discusses favorable conditions for the bond market, highlighting that weak economic fundamentals, such as low economic growth and low inflation, typically lead to declining market interest rates, which in turn increases bond prices [3] Group 2 - The content encourages readers to engage with a dedicated section on foundational knowledge, indicating a focus on educational resources for investors [6]

Group 1 - European stock markets are recovering from a period of stagnation, with some stocks showing tactical overbought signals as investors recognize the region's investment potential [1] - Germany has announced a significant fiscal policy reboot, planning to allocate approximately 25% of its GDP to infrastructure and defense projects over the next decade, which is expected to boost economic growth in Germany and Europe [1] - The European monetary environment is signaling improved economic momentum, with inflation declining and more easing policies likely to be introduced, supporting local economic growth [1] Group 2 - Caution is advised regarding the strengthening of the euro and high interest rates, which could negatively impact European companies that derive most of their revenue from overseas [2] - Local European companies are showing stronger earnings momentum compared to multinational peers, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, banking, and construction, as well as defense stocks and utilities with high entry barriers [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that over 90% of public FOFs achieved net value growth in Q2 2025, with a focus on diversified asset allocation and structural opportunities in the equity market [1][4]. - Different fund managers have varying investment strategies, with some emphasizing structural opportunities in new productivity sectors such as new consumption, new technology, and new manufacturing [2][4]. - Specific funds like Penghua Yixuan and Chuangjin Hexin have reported significant net value growth rates of 6.95% and 6.06% respectively, showcasing their unique asset allocation strategies [2][3]. Group 2 - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on high-dividend assets and technology sectors, with funds like Chuangjin Hexin adjusting their allocations to emphasize value stocks and technology growth [3][4]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potentially better performance in the stock market due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic inventory replenishment cycles [5]. - Managers express optimism about structural investment opportunities in the capital market, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment and the potential for risk appetite recovery [4][5].