中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 特朗普想"要"什么？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 2026年伊始，特朗普的诸多举措和言论再度超预期，引发市场大幅波动，美国更是一度出现"股债汇三杀"。从去年8月美国对多个经济体"对等关 税"下降、10月中美关税暂缓一年，好不容易消停几个月，现在一下子又把大家拉回到去年四月份"对等关税"时"熟悉的感觉"。美国政策不确定性 因此再次抬头向上，美股与美债的波动率也随之上升。在手段之外，理解特朗普所有政策背后的目的更为重要，在实现这些目的过程中，有些过激 手段会造成剧烈波动，有些方式反而会适得其反。这种通过观察手段、也了解目的的方式，可以帮助我们更好的透过现象看本质，理解这些政策对 美国宏观和市场的影响，也可以观察特朗普的约束所在。 2026.1.25 | 刘刚 郝悦宁 杨萱庭 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 美联储按兵不动，降息时点或推迟 >>点击图片查看全文<< >>点击图片查看全文<< 美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。理事沃勒投下反对票，或与其希望被提名为下一任美联储主席有关。货币政策声明称"失业率已 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of "deposit into the market" emphasizes the importance of "net new funds" rather than just "new funds," as net new funds have a stronger correlation with stock prices [1][3][5] - The willingness of residents to enter the market is closely related to income expectations, which are expected to stabilize or improve, potentially leading to an increase in the growth rate of new funds entering the market, although it may be lower than in 2025 [1][6][11] - The analysis framework for income expectations includes employment and service inflation indicators, as well as leading indicators such as resident credit pulses and housing prices [1][15][44] Group 2 - The relationship between new funds and stock market performance is weak; however, the growth rate of new funds shows a better correlation with stock market fluctuations [6][9][11] - The investment willingness of residents is a decisive factor for market dynamics, with a strong connection to income expectations; if investment willingness declines, even with high levels of deposits, market entry funds may not increase significantly [21][23][28] - High-net-worth individuals and insurance funds may contribute to market support, but their impact may diminish in 2026 as their investment willingness may not be as influenced by broader income expectations [36][39][41]

Market Overview - The market rebounded yesterday with all three major indices turning positive, and the ChiNext Index rose over 1% at one point. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.89 trillion, a decrease of 353.2 billion from the previous trading day. Over 3,400 stocks declined across the market [1] - The semiconductor industry chain continued to rise, with Huahong Semiconductor reaching a historical high, and stocks like Yaxing Integrated and Shenghui Integrated hitting the daily limit. Precious metals maintained strong performance, with China Gold achieving three consecutive limit-ups and Hunan Gold two consecutive limit-ups [1] - The CPO concept showed active performance, with Yuanjie Technology rising over 10% to reach a historical high, and Huilv Ecology hitting the daily limit. The space photovoltaic concept continued to recover, with Yujing Co. achieving three limit-ups in four days, and Saiwu Technology achieving two limit-ups in three days [1] - In contrast, the coal and battery sectors saw significant declines, with the battery industry chain collectively dropping, and stocks like Tianji Co. and Huasheng Lithium Battery falling over 6%. By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.71% [1] AIDC Power Supply Industry - CITIC Securities highlighted investment opportunities in the AIDC power supply industry chain, driven by the increasing power of single AI chips and AI computing cabinets, leading to iterations towards high power, direct current, and high voltage. Investment opportunities include four categories: (1) AIDC power supply mainframes such as PSU, HVDC, and SST, which have high value concentration and technical barriers; (2) Station-level energy storage, which is becoming a necessity for AI data center grid connection; (3) Core components, particularly solid-state circuit breakers, CBU/BBU, DC/DC devices, and electronic fuses/relays; (4) Third-generation semiconductors like GaN and SiC [2] Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - CICC noted that the "deposit into the market" effect may diminish by 2026. This effect emphasizes the importance of "new funds" while also considering "exit funds" to determine "net new funds," which have a stronger correlation with stock prices. The willingness of residents to enter the market is closely related to income expectations. Even when focusing on new funds, the growth rate of new funds is more closely related to stock market performance. The entry of high-net-worth individuals and insurance funds has provided significant support to the stock market in 2025, but this influence may wane in 2026 [3] AI Cloud Infrastructure - Open Source Securities reported that Amazon AWS announced a price increase of approximately 15% for its EC2 machine learning capacity blocks, marking the first break from its long-standing pricing tradition of only decreasing prices. This service model was introduced to address the supply-demand imbalance of high-performance GPU resources. The price increase confirms the high demand for AI computing resources globally and indicates that the scarcity of resources in the AI cloud industry may become more pronounced [4]

单颗AI芯片和单个AI计算机柜功率的不断提升，促使AIDC电源向大功率、直流化、高压化不断迭代。 投资机会包括四大类：（1）AIDC电源主机，即PSU、HVDC、SST等环节，价值量集中、技术壁垒和 入围门槛高；（2）电站级储能，越来越成为AI数据中心并网的刚需；（3）核心零部件，尤其看好固 态断路器、CBU/BBU、DC/DC设备、电子熔断器/继电器等AIDC新增环节；（4）GaN、SiC等第三代 半导体。 "存款入市"表达的是对"新增资金"的关注，还要考虑"退出资金"，才能得到"净增资金"，"净增资金"跟 股价关系更大，本质上仍然是居民入市意愿的问题，根据研究，居民入市意愿跟收入预期有很强的正相 关性。即使是要关注新增资金，也要重视新增资金的增速，新增资金的增速跟股市的涨幅相关性更强。 高净值人群的入市以及保险资金的入市在一定程度上可能独立于收入预期，在2025年对股市起到了重要 的支撑作用，但这方面的力量在2026年可能会有所收敛。 凤凰网财经讯 1月28日，A股三大指数开盘集体上涨，沪指涨0.25%，深成指涨0.29%，创业板指涨 0.51%。贵金属、培育钻石、油气等板块指数涨幅居前。 中金公司："存 ...

Core Insights - The concept of "deposit into the market" emphasizes the importance of "new funds" while also considering "exit funds" to determine "net new funds," which have a greater correlation with stock prices. Ultimately, this reflects the willingness of residents to invest in the market, which is strongly correlated with income expectations [3][70][71] - The growth rate of new funds is more significant than the absolute amount of new funds, as it has a stronger correlation with stock market performance. High-net-worth individuals and insurance funds may provide independent support to the market in 2025, but this influence may diminish in 2026 [3][70][71] - The analysis framework for income expectations is based on employment and service inflation, with indicators such as resident credit pulses and housing prices leading to income expectations. In the baseline scenario, the amount of new funds entering the market is expected to remain relatively stable compared to the previous year [3][70][71] Group 1 - New funds do not equate to net new funds; stock price increases are more closely related to the growth rate of new funds. The relationship between new funds and stock market performance is not strong, as evidenced by fluctuations in new funds from 2015 to 2025 [4][7][75] - The correlation between the growth rate of new funds and stock market performance is more significant. For instance, in 2016, new funds reached 4.9 trillion yuan, but the market declined by 12.9%, while in 2019, lower new funds coincided with a 33% market increase [7][75][78] - The willingness of residents to invest in the stock market is a decisive factor, closely linked to income expectations. A decline in investment willingness can lead to reduced market participation, as seen in 2022 when a 14% increase in maturing deposits did not translate into increased market investment [21][25][90] Group 2 - The investment willingness of residents is significantly influenced by income expectations. As of Q3 2025, the tendency to save remains high, indicating potential for increased risk asset allocation if saving tendencies normalize [25][94] - Employment perceptions are closely tied to income expectations, which in turn affect stock market trends. Historical data shows a negative correlation between unemployment rates and stock market performance in the U.S. and Japan [30][99] - High-net-worth individuals' willingness to invest in the stock market may not be significantly affected by broader income expectations, and insurance funds may contribute to market investments, although their growth may be limited compared to 2025 levels [34][35][106]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming maturity of approximately 50 trillion yuan in fixed-term deposits in China by 2026 is creating significant uncertainty among depositors regarding asset allocation strategies, as interest rates have declined from 3.1% to around 1.5% [1][2]. Group 1: Scale of Maturing Deposits - The discussion around the 50 trillion yuan in maturing fixed-term deposits has gained traction since the end of 2025, highlighting the challenges banks will face in managing liabilities [2]. - The surge in maturing deposits can be traced back to 2022-2023, when funds flowed back into fixed-term deposits due to a downturn in the real estate market and volatility in the stock and bond markets [3]. - Estimates from various research institutions indicate that the total maturing fixed-term deposits in 2026 will significantly impact banks' liabilities and residents' asset allocation [4][5]. Group 2: Potential Directions for Maturing Funds - The maturing funds are expected to be reallocated, but it is important to note that not all funds will leave the banking system; many will be optimized within it [6]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to be a primary outlet for these funds, with projected household consumption reaching 53 trillion yuan in 2025 [8]. - A portion of the funds will also be directed towards repaying mortgages, with an estimated 3 trillion yuan expected for early mortgage repayments in 2025 [8]. Group 3: Banking Strategies and Market Dynamics - Banks are currently engaged in competitive strategies to attract deposits, including raising interest rates on fixed-term deposits [7]. - The trend of "funds moving" within the banking system is evident, as depositors seek higher interest rates offered by smaller banks [6][7]. - The overall environment suggests that while some funds may flow into the stock market, the majority will likely remain within the banking system, reflecting a cautious approach among depositors [10][12]. Group 4: Impact on Banking Sector - The upcoming wave of maturing deposits presents a unique opportunity for banks to reprice their liabilities, potentially reducing annual costs by approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [14][16]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts, which could further stabilize banks' interest margins [15][16]. - Banks are focusing on optimizing their liability structures, encouraging a shift from long-term to short-term deposits while promoting financial products to manage funds effectively [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in non-bank deposits in July, reaching 2.14 trillion yuan, is attributed to heightened financial investment activity and may indicate a shift of funds towards the stock market, reflecting a broader trend of liquidity in the financial system [1][4][5]. Group 1: Non-Bank Deposits - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, the highest level for the same period since 2015, with a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan [1][4]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is linked to a rise in stock market activity, with many analysts suggesting that these funds may be flowing into equities rather than remaining in traditional savings [2][3]. - From January to July, non-bank deposits cumulatively increased by 4.69 trillion yuan, which is 1.73 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating a structural trend of funds moving from bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in non-bank deposits coincides with a decline in household deposits, which decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan in July, suggesting a potential migration of funds into the capital markets [5][6]. - Analysts note that the current market sentiment is strong, but caution that the increase in non-bank deposits may not directly correlate with a surge in retail investor participation, as high-net-worth individuals are more actively entering the market [7][8]. - The liquidity in the market is supported by the People's Bank of China's actions, including a net injection of 400 billion yuan through monetary policy tools, which has contributed to the overall increase in non-bank deposits [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - There is a distinction between high-net-worth investors entering the market and the general public, with the latter not showing significant direct investment in stocks but rather through bank wealth management products [7][8]. - The current environment suggests that while there is potential for increased retail participation in the market, it is primarily driven by sentiment rather than a fundamental shift in investment behavior [6][8]. - The long-term trend indicates that as deposit rates decline, there may be a gradual shift of wealth towards the capital markets, but this process is expected to be slow and should be approached with caution [6].