[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|国防军工 2026 年 2 月 28 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 | | AIDC | 电源的"最后一公里"，板载电源的高密高集成化革命 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 孟祥杰 | 分析师： 陈昕 | 分析师： | 吴坤其 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 | | | SFC CE.no: BRF275 | SFC CE.no: BWV823 | | SFC CE.no: BRT139 | | | 010-59136693 | 010-59136699 | | 010-59133689 | | | mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn | gfchenxin@gf.com.cn | | wukunqi@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 ...

Company Overview: VRT (维谛) Key Points Industry and Company Performance - VRT reported a remarkable Q4 performance driven by a surge in AI infrastructure demand, with organic order growth reaching 252% [1] - The current backlog has increased to $15 billion, reflecting a significant demand for the company's products [1] - Q4 revenue reached $2.88 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 23% [1] - The projected organic sales growth rate for the full year 2025 is estimated at 26% [1] - The organic order growth of 252% also indicates a sequential increase of 117% compared to Q3 [1] - The backlog at the end of the period reached $15 billion, showing a substantial year-over-year increase of 109% [1] Regional Performance - The Americas region is the primary revenue driver, with Q4 revenue growth of 50.2% year-over-year and organic growth of 46.2% [1] - In contrast, the Asia-Pacific and EMEA regions experienced declines in Q4 revenue, with decreases of 9.6% and 8.2% respectively; however, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to maintain a growth rate of 17.5% for the full year 2025 [1] Additional Insights - The focus on AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) power solutions is highlighted as a key area for VRT's future growth [1]

Company and Industry Summary Company: 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd.) Key Points 1. **Impact of Raw Material Price Increases** The recent stock price decline is attributed to rising lithium carbonate prices, which have increased battery cell prices to 0.38-0.4 CNY/Wh. However, the overall impact on demand is considered limited due to the following reasons: - Overseas markets have a high price acceptance, allowing integrators like Sungrow to pass on price increases through linked pricing agreements. The large scale of battery cell procurement provides a pricing advantage, minimizing the impact on profitability and market demand [1][1][1] - The domestic market is more sensitive to price changes, with battery cell prices increasing by approximately 0.1 CNY since August 2025, affecting the internal rate of return (IRR) by about 3 percentage points. However, Sungrow does not prioritize volume in the domestic market, resulting in no impact on overall performance [1][1][1] - The company aims for storage shipments in 2026 to exceed industry growth rates, projected to be over 50% [1][1][1] 2. **Data Center as a Growth Driver** The company is developing a third growth curve through data centers, with significant potential: - From Q3 2025, Sungrow will connect with major overseas companies like AWS, Google, and Meta for AI storage solutions, with positive feedback from recent tests. Orders are expected to materialize soon [2][2][2] - AI storage is designed for instantaneous response and load curve smoothing. Sungrow and Tesla are the only companies with AI storage solutions, with concerns about competition from Tesla. Sungrow's market share in AI storage is expected to surpass that of conventional storage, potentially generating over 5 billion CNY in profits from 10 GWh of orders, with the possibility of securing orders in the tens of GWh range [2][2][2] 3. **AIDC Development** The company has a dedicated R&D team of over 100 people, covering a full product line for three-level power supplies, with a focus on developing SST products expected to launch in the first half of the year. Sungrow is closely collaborating with leading international and domestic cloud service providers, aiming to become a core brand supplier for AIDC power solutions [2][2][2] 4. **Profitability Forecast** The company is expected to maintain strong competitiveness and stable profitability, with an increase in overseas shipments. The combination of data center storage and AIDC is anticipated to become a new growth point, with significant future potential. Current valuations are considered low, and a strong buy recommendation is maintained. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 14.3 billion CNY, 17.2 billion CNY, and 19.3 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 30%, 20%, and 12%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 22x, 18x, and 16x, with a target price of 249 CNY per share for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [2][2][2] Risk Factors 1. **Increased Industry Competition** The competitive landscape in the industry is intensifying, which may pose risks to market share and profitability [3][3][3] 2. **Policy Uncertainty** Potential changes in government policies may not meet expectations, impacting operations and profitability [3][3][3] 3. **Tariff Risks** Tariffs could affect the cost structure and pricing strategies, posing additional risks to the company's financial performance [3][3][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xinhua Intelligent Control Asia has been downgraded to Neutral due to market expectations already reflecting long-term prospects [2] Core Insights - The report highlights three major themes in the Chinese industrial sector: AI robots, AIDC power solutions, and space solar power [1] - The global humanoid robot shipment is expected to reach approximately 15,000 units by 2025, representing only 3% of the annual industrial robot shipments [3] - Significant growth is anticipated in the AIDC power sector, particularly for Chinese power solution providers, as they address urgent bottlenecks in AI infrastructure [2] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market is still in its early stages, with major shipments coming from Chinese companies. Future growth is expected to be exponential, with delivery targets increasing to thousands or even tens of thousands of units [3] - Current technology capabilities in humanoid robots have reached 80%-90% in terms of control, with rapid product iterations occurring every 6 to 8 months [3] AIDC Power Solutions - The report emphasizes the potential for Chinese power solution providers in the AIDC sector, particularly those capable of scaling delivery and supporting the transition to 800V DC systems [1][2] - Companies like Siyi Electric are expected to see a 40% increase in overseas orders, driven by product quality and global grid upgrades [8] Tesla Optimus Robot - Tesla's Optimus robot is still in early development, with potential sales not expected until late 2027. Current stock prices may reflect these expectations, and further evidence of effective AI models is needed for price support [4][5] Gas Turbine Blade Suppliers - INL, a gas turbine blade supplier, is positioned to benefit from power shortages and OEM capacity constraints, with a projected revenue CAGR of 25% by 2030 [6][7] Market Opportunities in Space Solar Power - The report discusses potential opportunities in space solar power, particularly with Tesla and SpaceX's plans to increase solar capacity significantly, which could benefit Chinese photovoltaic companies [13] Other Companies - KOSTA, a leading UPS supplier, is expected to see a 60% increase in net profit by 2025, driven by significant orders from the U.S. AI data center supply chain [9][10] - MKM is transitioning into the global AI server power market but faces execution challenges and is rated Neutral due to high valuation and recent losses [11][12]

单颗AI芯片和单个AI计算机柜功率的不断提升，促使AIDC电源向大功率、直流化、高压化不断迭代。 投资机会包括四大类：（1）AIDC电源主机，即PSU、HVDC、SST等环节，价值量集中、技术壁垒和 入围门槛高；（2）电站级储能，越来越成为AI数据中心并网的刚需；（3）核心零部件，尤其看好固 态断路器、CBU/BBU、DC/DC设备、电子熔断器/继电器等AIDC新增环节；（4）GaN、SiC等第三代 半导体。 "存款入市"表达的是对"新增资金"的关注，还要考虑"退出资金"，才能得到"净增资金"，"净增资金"跟 股价关系更大，本质上仍然是居民入市意愿的问题，根据研究，居民入市意愿跟收入预期有很强的正相 关性。即使是要关注新增资金，也要重视新增资金的增速，新增资金的增速跟股市的涨幅相关性更强。 高净值人群的入市以及保险资金的入市在一定程度上可能独立于收入预期，在2025年对股市起到了重要 的支撑作用，但这方面的力量在2026年可能会有所收敛。 凤凰网财经讯 1月28日，A股三大指数开盘集体上涨，沪指涨0.25%，深成指涨0.29%，创业板指涨 0.51%。贵金属、培育钻石、油气等板块指数涨幅居前。 中金公司："存 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: Weichai Power Key Points - **Emerging Business Growth**: Weichai Power has established a seventh business segment focused on AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) power, indicating a strategic shift in business drivers [1] - **Large Cylinder Production Forecast**: The company anticipates a production volume of over 13,000 units for large cylinders in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 30% [1] - **Data Center Large Cylinder Growth**: For data center large cylinders, the expected production in 2026 is 2,600 units, which marks a 100% increase from approximately 1,300 units in 2025. This includes 800 units for domestic clients and 400 units for overseas clients, primarily large firms like Oracle in the US [1] - **Profit Margins**: The profit per unit for standard large cylinders is projected at 100,000 yuan, while for data center large cylinders, it is significantly higher at 500,000 yuan. This indicates a strong profit elasticity driven by price increases in AIDC large cylinders [1] - **Revenue Contribution from Large Cylinder Business**: The large cylinder segment is expected to contribute over 2.5 billion yuan in revenue in 2026 [1] Industry: Gas Power Generation and SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) Key Points - **Certification Status**: The gas generator currently awaits UL certification in the US. Until certification is obtained, customers can use the product, with invoicing to occur post-certification. A small number of units are expected to be delivered this year [2] - **SOFC Business Projections**: For 2026, the SOFC business is expected to deliver 40-50 MW, with planned production capacity of 60 MW. By 2030, the capacity is projected to reach 1 GW, and by 2032, 2 GW, with an estimated price of around 20,000 yuan per kW. This translates to an expected mid-term contribution of 8 billion yuan by 2032, assuming a 20% profit margin [2] - **Main Business Outlook**: In 2026, the company anticipates a total revenue of approximately 14 billion yuan, with the main business contributing around 11.5 billion yuan. The valuation is projected at 1.15 trillion yuan based on a 10x multiple [2] - **Large Cylinder Business Valuation**: The large cylinder business is expected to generate 2.5 billion yuan, with a 20x valuation leading to a potential market cap of 500 billion yuan [2] - **SOFC Option Valuation**: The SOFC business, with a mid-term contribution of 8 billion yuan, is estimated to have an option value of 80 billion yuan, discounted at a 50% rate [2]

Overall Viewpoint - The National Grid is expected to reach a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," representing a 40% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," with an average annual compound growth rate of 7%, slightly exceeding expectations. This investment is driven by counter-cyclical adjustments, benefiting areas such as ultra-high voltage, main distribution networks, smart technology, and key projects like hydropower and clean energy bases [4]. Group 1: Hydrogen and Ammonia - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the hydrogen and ammonia sector is expected to benefit from China's future industry developments and the EU carbon tariff in 2026. Shanghai is progressing rapidly, with plans to establish an international green fuel refueling and trading center by 2030, targeting a million-ton level for green methanol and biofuels [5]. Group 2: AIDC Power Supply - The domestic AIDC construction is promising and can align with AI applications for sector rotation. Internationally, the HVDC solutions are expected to expand, and progress in SST technology cooperation is anticipated. The capital expenditure for North American data centers in 2027 will be assessed during the US stock annual report period [5]. Group 3: Power Grid - A resonant pattern is expected to form between overseas and domestic power grid investments, with positive expectations for both. The construction of the hydropower grid and the integration of power and computing resources are areas that require close monitoring due to lower expectations [5]. Group 4: Lithium Battery and Energy Storage - The demand side for lithium batteries is currently competitive, with domestic energy storage tenders for 2026 still needing tracking. The overseas energy storage market is influenced by North American computing and electricity shortages, while domestic storage follows policy expectations and lithium material price trends. The lithium battery industry is currently thriving, but after the price increase expectations are realized, stock prices may lack upward momentum, making it essential to focus on new technologies like solid-state batteries [5].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental sectors [1]. Core Insights - The National Grid's fixed asset investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, with an average annual growth rate of 7%, slightly exceeding expectations. Key areas benefiting from this investment include ultra-high voltage, main distribution networks, smart technology, and major projects [3]. - The domestic energy storage project bidding scale for 2025 is projected to be 447 GWh, with a significant portion being non-collective bidding [3]. - The report highlights the potential for hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol industries, particularly in Shanghai, which aims to establish an international green fuel refueling and trading center by 2030 [4]. Summary by Sections Power Equipment and New Energy - The report emphasizes the importance of the National Grid's investment and its implications for various sectors, including ultra-high voltage and smart grid technologies [3]. - It suggests monitoring companies like TBEA, Pinggao Electric, and XJ Electric for potential investment opportunities [4]. Energy Storage - The report notes a continuous increase in the domestic energy storage market, with significant project bids already in place for 2026 [8]. - It highlights the ongoing demand for energy storage solutions in both domestic and international markets, particularly in North America and Ukraine [8]. Wind Power - The report indicates a substantial increase in new wind power installations, with a projected 82.5 GW added in 2025, marking a 59.42% year-on-year growth [10]. - It suggests that companies involved in offshore wind projects in Europe are likely to benefit from upcoming orders and market growth [23]. Lithium Battery and Materials - The report discusses the dynamics of lithium battery materials, noting a recovery in demand and price stabilization across various segments, including lithium carbonate and iron phosphate lithium [25][27]. - It emphasizes the potential for a surge in demand due to changes in export tax policies and the ongoing transition to solid-state batteries [28]. Environmental Sector - The report maintains a positive outlook on the environmental sector, driven by increased investments and policy support for clean energy initiatives [1][4]. - It suggests that companies involved in hydrogen and ammonia production, as well as those in the energy storage sector, are well-positioned for growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the "space photovoltaic" sector, indicating it as a key investment theme for 2026, driven by strong demand and geopolitical narratives [7][8]. Core Insights - The space photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant advancements, primarily among companies already established in the sector, highlighting the high barriers to entry [7][8]. - The Chinese photovoltaic supply chain is expected to accelerate the growth of the space photovoltaic market, benefiting from the U.S. demand for "self-sufficiency" in solar products [7][8]. - The wind power and grid equipment sectors have also received substantial positive catalysts, with notable developments in offshore wind projects and significant investments planned by the State Grid [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Space Photovoltaics - Recent developments in the space photovoltaic sector include strategic partnerships and investments by companies like JunDa and Dongfang Risen, focusing on advanced technologies such as perovskite and HJT cells [8][9]. - The U.S. is facing a critical need for domestic solar supply chains due to trade barriers, which presents a significant opportunity for Chinese companies to capitalize on this demand [11][12]. Wind Power - The UK government has signed contracts for 8.4GW of offshore wind projects, exceeding market expectations, which strengthens the outlook for domestic supply chain exports [13][14]. - The auction results indicate a favorable pricing environment for developers, enhancing the profitability of future projects [14]. Grid Equipment - The State Grid's investment plan of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan represents a 40% increase from the previous plan, establishing a strong foundation for long-term growth in the grid sector [3][15]. - The aging infrastructure in North America is driving demand for new transformers and grid solutions, creating opportunities for companies like Siyuan Electric and Jinpan Technology [17][19]. Lithium Batteries - New regulations on battery recycling are set to take effect in April 2026, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive management system for used batteries [22][23]. - Companies like Fulin Precision are expanding their production capabilities in lithium iron phosphate batteries, indicating a positive trend in the lithium battery market [25][26]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The hydrogen industry is poised for growth, with significant policy support and increasing sales of hydrogen vehicles expected in the coming years [4][5].

Group 1 - The AIDC power supply is trending towards high power, high voltage, and direct current, primarily led by overseas companies like Nvidia and Google, indicating that overseas supply chains are currently superior to domestic ones [2] - Investors should focus on segments that align with these technological trends, characterized by high value, rapid growth, and strong barriers to entry, while avoiding segments that are likely to be replaced or eliminated [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tools, reflecting a macro policy approach that emphasizes structural adjustments while maintaining moderate overall liquidity [3] - This policy adjustment aligns with the central economic work conference's focus on "quality and efficiency," and is supported by stable external demand, indicating that macro policies can still provide a safety net if total demand changes significantly [3] - The central bank has the capability to keep government bond yields stable, although the capacity of banks to absorb government bonds remains a structural issue that requires further conditions to be addressed [3] Group 3 - The accelerated construction of data centers in Europe has highlighted power supply and demand conflicts, leading to increased demand for offshore wind and power interconnection, which are unique to Europe [4] - The ongoing high demand for European grid upgrades benefits main network transformers and switches, as well as distribution network transformers [4]