港股家电股普遍上涨，其中，TCL电子涨超6%领衔，海信家电涨3%，创维集团涨超1%，美的集团、海 尔智家跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01070 | TCL电子 | 10.830 | 6.39% | | 00921 | 海信家电 | 24.260 | 2.97% | | 00751 | 创维集团 | 3.440 | 1.18% | | 00300 | 美的集团 | 83.450 | 0.18% | | 06690 | 海尔智家 | 26.020 | 0.08% | 责任编辑：栎树 国金证券研报称，板块景气判断：白色家电-略有承压、黑色家电-稳健向上、厨卫电器-底部企稳、扫地 机-高景气维持。年初至今家电社零保持高增，内需国补托底下需求韧性强，外需新兴市场需求持续高 景气，有望拉动出口保持较好增长。 消息上，国家以旧换新第三批资金已下达，8月26日起，淘宝天猫率先启动可领！新增品类之外，目前 消费者领用国补购买家电家装，一级及以上能效/水效产品，至高可享20%的补贴，二级能效/水效产品 可享15%的补贴，居家适老化改造产品补贴 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The home appliance industry is experiencing significant growth potential in emerging markets, which account for 67% of the global population but only 32% of home appliance retail sales, indicating a substantial opportunity for growth [1][2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Emerging Market Growth**: Emerging markets are expected to be a key growth driver for the home appliance industry, with a notable increase in demand for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines due to low penetration rates compared to developed countries [1][2][5] - **Air Conditioner Market**: The air conditioner market is growing rapidly, closely linked to GDP per capita. Countries with GDP per capita reaching $3,000 or $6,000 show significant increases in penetration rates [1][7] - **Export Recovery**: China's home appliance exports are gradually recovering from tariff impacts, with a notable increase in exports to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the U.S. [1][8] - **Domestic Market Growth**: The domestic market is experiencing steady growth driven by the "trade-in for new" policy, with air conditioner shipments increasing by 8% and washing machines showing double-digit growth in the first five months of 2025 [1][9] Competitive Landscape - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with Xiaomi's market share leveling off and major players like Midea and Gree adjusting their product structures [3][12] - **Small Appliances Growth**: The small appliance market, particularly for robotic vacuum cleaners and floor washers, continues to show high growth, with companies like Ecovacs reporting revenue and profit growth exceeding expectations [3][13] Investment Recommendations - **Focus on Dividend Stocks**: Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong dividend yields such as Gree, Midea, Haier, and Hisense, which have dividend rates exceeding 4% [3][15] - **Export Opportunities**: Companies in the export sector, particularly in small appliances and black electronics, are recommended for investment due to their growth potential in emerging markets and the U.S. [3][16][19] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of National Subsidies**: The national subsidy policy has led to structural growth in the domestic market, with significant price increases observed [1][9][14] - **Long-term Potential of Robotic Vacuums**: The robotic vacuum segment is viewed as a long-term growth area due to its strong growth potential and limited impact from domestic subsidy policies [3][17] - **Advantages of OEMs**: OEMs like New Bao and Dechang are positioned well in the global market due to scarce overseas production capacity, which enhances their competitiveness in exports to the U.S. [3][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [11]. Core Insights - The 2025 national subsidy for home appliances is expected to boost industry performance, with a significant increase in subsidy duration and coverage, leading to sustained high industry sentiment [3][9]. - The report anticipates that the demand for home appliances will remain robust due to a large number of appliances reaching their safety usage limits that have not yet been replaced [3][9]. Policy Overview - The 2025 national subsidy program extends from 4 months to 12 months, covering the peak season for air conditioners and expanding the types of subsidized products to include small appliances and cleaning devices [6][17]. - The total subsidy amount for the "old for new" policy has increased from 150 billion to 300 billion yuan [6][17]. Performance Review - As of May 31, 2025, approximately 49.86 million consumers purchased 77.618 million units of 12 major categories of home appliances, with an estimated sales revenue of about 262 billion yuan [7][27]. - The home appliance retail sales growth from January to May 2025 was 30.2%, significantly outperforming the overall retail sales growth of consumer goods [7][27]. Future Outlook - Without subsidies, the expected growth rates for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in 2025 are projected at 2.0%, -0.8%, and 5.1%, respectively. However, with a conservative estimate of 80 billion yuan in subsidy funds, these growth rates could increase to 10.6%, 3.7%, and 7.7% [8][9]. - The report suggests that the impact of the subsidy on future demand will be limited due to the high number of appliances that have reached their replacement age [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality leading companies with certain growth prospects, such as Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Group, and Hisense Home Appliances, which are expected to benefit from domestic sales trends driven by subsidies [9][12]. - Companies with exposure to the U.S. market and strong brand power, such as Anker Innovations and Roborock, are also highlighted for their potential recovery [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of the "national subsidy" program for home appliances in several regions has raised concerns about the early termination of subsidies, but the official response confirms that the nationwide deadline remains December 31, 2025, with local suspensions being temporary adjustments [1][6]. Group 1: Reasons for Suspension - The suspension in various regions is attributed to the exhaustion of subsidy funds and system upgrades [2][4]. - In Chongqing, the first round of 1.2 billion yuan in home appliance subsidies was exhausted by early June, leading to a pause in online applications [2]. - Other regions, such as Gansu and Guangdong, have also reported similar suspensions due to fund depletion and system management [3][5]. Group 2: Key Policy Content - The national subsidy policy covers three main areas: 1. **Automobile Trade-in**: Subsidies of 20,000 yuan for purchasing new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles when trading in older models [7]. 2. **Home Appliance and Digital Subsidies**: Expanded categories for subsidies include microwaves and water purifiers, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan for energy-efficient appliances [9][10]. 3. **Public Equipment Updates**: Subsidies for replacing old public transport vehicles and agricultural machinery, with significant increases in subsidy amounts [11][12]. Group 3: Consumer Action Guide - Consumers are advised to secure their eligibility for subsidies promptly, as funds are being rapidly depleted [13]. - Online applications for home appliance and digital product subsidies can be made through the JD APP with specific search terms [14]. - It is crucial to rely on official channels to avoid misinformation regarding subsidy availability [15]. Group 4: Important Reminders - The Ministry of Finance has confirmed that the national subsidy program will end on December 31, 2025, but local funds may run out earlier, necessitating prompt action from consumers [18]. - The current subsidy pool has already consumed over 70% of its funds, with high-value items seeing the fastest depletion [18]. - The second batch of funds is being expedited, with 81 billion yuan already allocated to support local policy transitions [19].

Core Viewpoint - The temporary suspension or limitation of national subsidies for trade-in programs in certain regions during the "6.18" promotional period is attributed to factors such as phased funding supply and the government's stance against excessive price competition [1][5][8]. Group 1: National Subsidy Adjustments - In regions like Guangdong and Chongqing, the national subsidy for trade-in programs has been paused or limited, with specific programs indicating they are "fully subscribed" or "out of stock" [2][3]. - The "Yue Huan Xin" program in Foshan has announced that various subsidies will be released in three phases, with strict limits on the total amount available in each phase [2]. - In Guangzhou, certain subsidies are available only at specific times each day, indicating a controlled distribution of funds [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The rapid consumption of subsidy funds indicates that the subsidies have effectively stimulated consumer spending, with over 1.1 trillion yuan spent on trade-in programs this year [7]. - The competitive landscape among e-commerce platforms and brands has intensified, with some retailers offering additional discounts on top of national subsidies, leading to price discrepancies [7][8]. - The current pricing environment is described as chaotic, with some products being sold below cost due to aggressive competition and subsidy strategies [8]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Industry experts suggest that the suspension of subsidies in some areas may lead to a healthier competitive ecosystem, as excessive low-price competition has distorted market dynamics [8]. - The government has expressed concerns over "involution" in the market, where companies engage in unsustainable pricing strategies that undermine fair competition [8].

Group 1 - The "6·18" promotional battle is currently ongoing, but reports indicate that some regions have suspended or adjusted the "national subsidy" for home appliance trade-ins due to exhausted funds, with a total subsidy of approximately 1.2 billion [1] - In Jiangsu, the national subsidy qualification page on JD.com and Taobao shows that consumers are unable to claim subsidies during a system upgrade, with notifications stating that the reopening time will be announced later [1] - Jiangsu's Department of Commerce has confirmed that from June 1, a quota management system will be implemented for both online and offline national subsidies, which will last until the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Executive Vice Secretary-General of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, Wu Xianjian, acknowledged the temporary suspension or adjustment of national subsidies in some areas, attributing it to a gap in funding and stating that the second batch of funds is being allocated while planning for the third batch is underway [2] - There is a prevailing sense of anxiety in the market, with some businesses engaging in speculation, but it is expected that the situation will improve soon [2]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of national subsidies for home appliances during the 618 shopping festival has led several regions, including Jiangsu and Guangdong, to implement a "quota management" system, causing consumers to face challenges in accessing subsidies [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - National subsidy policies for home appliances in regions like Jiangsu, Chongqing, Hubei, and Guangdong have been paused or shifted to a limited supply model [1] - Consumers in Jiangsu must queue to "grab" quotas for subsidies when shopping offline, indicating a scarcity of available funds [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The sales volume of the "trade-in" program has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reflecting strong consumer demand despite the subsidy adjustments [1] - Industry analysts believe the current policy changes are primarily due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds, suggesting that this is a temporary situation [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - There are expectations for a new round of subsidies to be reintroduced, with the Chongqing Municipal Commerce Commission planning to announce a second phase of policies in early June [1]