Core Viewpoint - The Chinese home appliance industry is at a critical juncture, with the focus shifting towards international expansion as domestic markets reach saturation. The theme for 2026 is "going abroad," which represents a significant opportunity for companies like Haier, Midea, Hisense, and TCL to explore new markets and alleviate overcapacity issues [7]. Group 1: Overseas Market Potential - The global home appliance market is valued at nearly 4.5 trillion yuan, indicating substantial overseas market potential. In 2024, Midea and Haier are projected to generate approximately 270 billion yuan each in appliance revenue, translating to a global market share of only about 6% [9]. - Domestic brands have low market shares in most overseas regions, with Midea and Haier struggling to exceed 10% in many markets. In contrast, their competitors like Samsung and LG dominate the market [11]. - The growth strategy for domestic brands hinges on increasing their market share abroad, transitioning from competing with regional brands to facing established global giants [13]. Group 2: Challenges of Past Success - Historically, Chinese home appliance companies have relied on capacity expansion and brand acquisitions for international growth. However, this simplistic growth model is becoming unsustainable, as evidenced by the significant gap between global manufacturing share (over 45%) and retail share (less than 20%) [17]. - The stagnation in overseas revenue for leading companies like Haier and Midea, which has remained around 50% and 42% respectively for the past five years, highlights the need for a shift in strategy [18]. Group 3: Brand and Channel Development - The success of domestic brands in China was due to a strong competitive edge in product, brand, and channel management. However, these strengths have not yet translated effectively to international markets, where brand recognition and channel control remain challenges [23]. - Building brand recognition in mature markets is particularly difficult, as Chinese brands face trust issues despite offering lower prices compared to Japanese and Korean brands [25]. - The reliance on traditional retail channels in overseas markets poses significant barriers, as these channels are often fragmented and dominated by established players [30]. Group 4: Opportunities for Breakthrough - Technological innovation is seen as a key pathway to overcoming brand premium challenges and building core competitiveness. Chinese companies have increased R&D investments, achieving breakthroughs in areas like robotic vacuum navigation technology [33]. - Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America present significant growth opportunities due to low penetration rates and a favorable demographic profile. These markets are less saturated, allowing for greater brand establishment potential [43]. - The rise of e-commerce in overseas markets offers a new avenue for brand penetration, enabling companies to reach consumers without the need for extensive physical retail investments [45].

来源：锦缎 家电是中国制造业的缩影。过去30多年，家电行业完整经历了技术引进、治理改革、代工贴牌到自主品牌的发展阶段，且伴随着多轮家电下乡、国补政策 支持、企业体制改革，从不缺少话题。 同时家电的出海史领先于绝大部分产业，更是中国工业品全球化的缩影。 随着国内冰洗渗透率触及天花板，空调量增空间也不大，行业本就产能过剩问题将日益凸显。以白电为例，中国绝大部分产能都占到全球的5成以上，空 调甚至占到8成，再考虑到过去10年国内企业在海外的资本开支，过剩只会更严重。 由是，中国家电的2026年主题词，唯属"出海"二字：海外成为海尔、美的、海信、TCL们挖掘增量、消化过剩产能的唯一突破口，无异于"二次创业"，这 将是一场决定未来十年的"全面战争"。 01 海外整体空间并不小，主要看点在份额 根据沙利文统计，全球家电市场规模接近4.5万亿元，海外市场空间仍是非常广阔的。 2024年，美的和海尔的家电业务收入均在2700亿元左右，也就意味着在全球份额都仅6%左右。由于美的外销比例低于海尔，且外销中代工占比较多，所 以实际上，在白电领域，美的自有品牌在海外的份额仅3%左右。 Euromonitor 进一步展开，国内品牌在海 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese home appliance companies are increasingly establishing production bases in Thailand, positioning it as a strategic hub for their international expansion, with significant growth in overseas revenue reported by major players like Midea and Haier [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Expansion and Strategy - Midea's overseas revenue has significantly increased, with OBM revenue accounting for over 45% of its TO C business in 2025 [1]. - Haier's overseas market revenue reached 79.08 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, growing by 11.7% [1]. - Midea has established its largest overseas manufacturing base in Thailand and aims to make it its "second home market" after China [3][4]. Group 2: Reasons for Choosing Thailand - Thailand offers advantages in political stability, supply chain infrastructure, and population demographics, making it an attractive location for Chinese home appliance companies [4]. - The eastern economic corridor of Thailand, particularly in Chonburi and Rayong, is a strategic focus for many Chinese brands due to its proximity to major ports [4]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Brand Positioning - The Thai home appliance market is experiencing a consumption upgrade, with consumers increasingly willing to invest in higher-end products [5][6]. - Chinese brands are gaining market share in Thailand, with Haier leading in air conditioning and Midea dominating in refrigerators and microwaves [6][7]. Group 4: Product Development and Innovation - Chinese home appliance companies are noted for their rapid product iteration and responsiveness to market demands, which contrasts with the slower innovation cycles of traditional Japanese and Korean brands [7]. - High-end product development is becoming a trend, with companies recognizing the need to move beyond low-cost competition to capture higher profit margins [8]. Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite significant market presence, Chinese brands still face challenges in brand recognition and consumer perception in Thailand [10][11]. - After-sales service is critical for success, with companies investing heavily in service networks to enhance customer satisfaction [11]. Group 6: Globalization and Regionalization - The concept of regionalization is emerging as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with global trade, allowing companies to leverage local production capabilities to support global operations [12]. - The home appliance industry is transitioning towards a comprehensive ecosystem approach, integrating R&D, supply chain, sales, and after-sales services in overseas markets [12].

作者丨赖镇桃 和佳 编辑丨李艳霞 和刻板印象中东南亚人行事散逸不同，工厂里的员工工作时还带点一丝不苟。"我们工厂的本土员工占比已经达到98%以上，有泰国人，也有周 边国家过来的。当然，生产效率还有提高的空间，来这边的家电企业都会面临同样的处境。"美的家用空调泰国工厂总经理李鹏在忙季只能抽身 几分钟向21世纪经济报道记者讲解。 （美的泰国空调工厂里繁忙的工人，拍摄/赖镇桃） 海外市场接近撑起美的营收的半壁江山。 美的2025年的三季报显示，公司今年前三季度实现营业收入3630.57亿元，其中，海外OBM（自有品 牌）收入大幅提升，占TO C业务的比例提升至45%以上。 另一大家电巨头海尔，海外市场的占比已经过半。 财报显示，2025年上半年，海尔智家海外市场收入达到790.8亿元，增长11.7%。 "未来20年，中国企业将在海外再造一个'中国'。"上海财经大学滴水湖高级金融学院院长姚洋曾这样概括中资企业出海之路。 家电企业，作为中资企业国际化程度最高的"舵手"之一，他们是如何破风远航的？又会如何探寻新的航向？ 为什么是泰国？ "2026冷年全力冲击600万套"！ 甫一走进美的在泰国春武里的空调工厂，厂区门口的红 ...

Group 1: Domestic Demand and Market Outlook - The home appliance sector is expected to show a "high first half and stable second half" trend in 2025, driven by policy continuation and consumption peaks [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, air conditioner shipments increased by 8.4%, refrigerators by 2.4%, and washing machines by 4.1% year-on-year [1][13] - For 2026, the continuation of subsidies is anticipated to mitigate the impact of high base effects and demand pull-forward, with projected declines in overall appliance sales of -4% to -7.3% under various subsidy scenarios [1][16][19] Group 2: Export Performance and Global Market Trends - Home appliance exports have slowed down due to tariff policies and global supply chain adjustments, but still show resilience and structural highlights [2] - In 2025, the export growth rate for air conditioners is expected to be weaker than that of washing machines and refrigerators, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting overseas demand [2][39] - The U.S. market is projected to benefit from a rate cut, which may enhance demand for home appliances, while the European market is expected to maintain a slow recovery [42][44][50] Group 3: Investment Themes - The narrative in the black appliance sector is shifting from "market share chasing" to "profit and pricing power," with Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL expected to convert market share into higher profits [3][55] - White appliances are seen as having strong growth potential due to their historical resilience through cycles, with leading brands like Midea and Haier expected to maintain stable growth and generous dividends [3][83] - The global competition in new consumer products, particularly in smart imaging and robotic vacuum cleaners, is expected to favor Chinese brands, highlighting their competitive advantages [3] Group 4: Financial Metrics and Valuation - As of December 22, 2025, the home appliance sector's PE TTM is 16.27 times, remaining below the 10-year average of 32.8% [7] - The white appliance segment's current PE is 11.22, while black appliances stand at 25.94, indicating varying levels of market valuation [9] - The home appliance sector has seen a decline in public fund holdings, with a heavy allocation of only 2.46% in Q3 2025, reflecting concerns over demand in 2026 [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Home Appliance Industry Industry Overview - The home appliance industry is currently valued below the median level, with leading white goods companies like Gree, Midea, and Haier having valuations that have not exceeded 15 times earnings, indicating a high safety margin [1][3] - The dividend yield of the home appliance sector ranks fourth among 32 industries, with Gree at approximately 7%, Midea over 5%, and Haier exceeding 4% [1][4] Core Investment Themes for 2026 - The main investment themes for 2026 are expected to revolve around "going overseas" and "dividends," with dividends being a strategy that spans the next 2 to 5 years [1][5] - The cash dividend ratio in the home appliance industry is relatively high, placing it in the top third among 32 industries, despite its lower valuation [5] Cost Pressures and Market Dynamics - Rising copper prices have significantly impacted air conditioning costs, as copper accounts for 30% to 40% of air conditioning costs. However, the feasibility of replacing copper with aluminum is being studied to mitigate cost impacts [6] - The real estate market's influence on home appliance sales is diminishing, with the contribution of real estate to sales of washing and refrigeration products dropping to around 10% [7][8] Government Policies and Domestic Demand - The continuation of national subsidy policies is expected to support domestic demand in 2026, limiting the potential decline in demand [9] - Air conditioning is anticipated to benefit the most from these subsidy policies, while refrigerators have not shown significant benefits [9] Export Market Outlook - A turning point for exports is expected in the second quarter of 2026, driven by a recovery in overseas demand and inventory replenishment due to low stock levels [10] - The transfer of some export capacity to Southeast Asia and improvements in overseas factory profitability are contributing to this positive outlook [10] Segment Performance - The white goods segment is experiencing a slowdown in price competition, with a favorable outlook for air conditioning exports due to increased demand from emerging markets and climate changes in Europe and the U.S. [12] - The black goods segment is projected to be one of the best-performing sub-sectors by 2026, benefiting from the World Cup effect and stable panel prices [13] Recommendations for Investment - Recommended companies include Midea and Haier for white goods, as they possess dividend attributes and overseas expansion advantages [16] - For black goods, companies are heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with over 30% of their export revenue coming from there, and they are in a high dividend state [16] - In the robotic vacuum segment, companies like Ecovacs and Roborock are recommended, with a long-term growth outlook despite current pressures [17] - Attention is also drawn to leading companies in the tool chain sector, which are expected to benefit directly from the recovery in the U.S. real estate market [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for key players in the market [4]. Core Insights - The overseas market for robotic vacuum cleaners is experiencing significant growth, driven by Chinese brands leading the expansion. Notably, during the recent Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions, sales for Roborock in Europe increased by 59% year-on-year, while sales in North America rose by at least 50%. The brand Chase achieved a remarkable 90% growth in Europe and 270% in North America [8][18]. - The pricing dynamics in the industry show a coexistence of upgrades and competition, with the average price of robotic vacuums expected to rise. For instance, the average prices on Amazon for best-selling models in the US, Germany, France, and Japan increased by 17%, 22%, 9%, and 3% year-on-year, respectively [23][28]. - The competitive landscape indicates that traditional overseas leaders are under pressure, while Chinese brands are poised to benefit from this shift. iRobot is facing liquidity and debt default risks, which may allow Chinese brands to capture market share in Europe and North America [34][36]. Summary by Sections Growth - The overseas robotic vacuum market has seen rapid growth, with a 58% increase in downloads for the top eight brands from January to November 2025. Europe is leading this growth, followed by Asia-Pacific and North America, which still shows over 30% growth despite tariff uncertainties [11][15]. Pricing - The combination of premium products becoming more affordable and consumers opting for upgrades is driving the average price increase in the industry. However, aggressive pricing competition during year-end promotions has led to some price reductions in specific markets [23][28]. Competitive Landscape - iRobot is under significant operational and debt pressure, which may allow Chinese brands to gain market share. The report suggests that iRobot's overseas market share has dropped below 10%, indicating a potential opportunity for Chinese brands to capitalize on this situation [34][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued investment in leading cleaning appliance brands such as Roborock and Ecovacs, which are expected to maintain high growth rates in overseas markets. The domestic market is also anticipated to grow rapidly due to ongoing product innovation and increasing penetration rates [51][52].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Overweight (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production, with December 2025's total production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines at 30.18 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [6] - The production of home air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in December 2025 is 14.11 million, 8.13 million, and 7.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year declines of 22.3%, 8.2%, and 1.9% [6] - The domestic sales and exports of air conditioners in December 2025 are 5.16 million and 8.95 million units, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 29.9% and 11.4% respectively [6] - The washing machine export market is performing strongly, with a cumulative export volume of 37.6 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [6] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The relative return over the past month is 4.09%, while the absolute return over the last 12 months is 10.07% [3] Production Data - In October 2025, actual production of home air conditioners was 10.13 million units, down 27.9% year-on-year, with sales of 10.28 million units, down 20.1% [6] - The production data for September shows air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines exported 3.37 million, 4.47 million, and 4.79 million units respectively, with year-on-year changes of -18.2%, +7.6%, and +23.8% [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the air conditioning industry is facing multiple pressures, including weak retail demand and high base effects from exports, leading to a continued adjustment phase [6] - The report highlights the potential for growth in overseas markets for Chinese home appliance companies, particularly in washing machines, as they expand their international sales networks and enhance brand influence [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that for Chinese home appliance companies, expanding overseas is no longer optional but essential for survival and growth, highlighting the importance of embracing global markets for future growth certainty [3][9]. Southeast Asia Home Appliance Market - The Southeast Asian home appliance market is projected to reach approximately $52 billion in retail sales by 2024, accounting for 10% of global sales and 25% of the Asia-Pacific market [3]. - The air conditioning market shows strong momentum, with significant potential for structural upgrades, as the average ownership rates in Southeast Asia are lower than in China [3]. - Chinese brands are increasingly gaining market share in Southeast Asia, particularly in air conditioning and color television, while Japanese and Korean brands continue to dominate in washing machines [3][4]. Indonesia Market Overview - Indonesia, as the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has a population of 283 million in 2024, contributing 35% to the region's GDP [4][11]. - The retail sales of consumer appliances in Indonesia are expected to reach $4.4 billion in 2024, with significant growth potential due to low ownership rates of major appliances [4][14]. - Chinese brands are projected to capture over 40% of the market share in various appliance categories by 2024, showing a notable increase from 2016 [4][20]. Consumer Insights - There is a strong demand for localized product customization in Indonesia, with specific requirements for air conditioning and washing machines based on local conditions [5][34]. - The overall product structure in Indonesia remains low-end, with a predominance of basic models in air conditioning and washing machines [34][36]. - Traditional distribution channels dominate the market, with over 50% of sales coming from traditional wholesale and retail outlets, while e-commerce accounts for less than 20% [28][48]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies are enhancing their influence in Indonesia, particularly in refrigerators, air conditioners, and color televisions, while Japanese and Korean brands maintain a stronghold in washing machines [20][26]. - The competitive dynamics are shifting, with Chinese brands leveraging price-performance advantages and faster product iterations to increase market share [20][27]. Channel Structure - The sales of home appliances in Indonesia are primarily through offline channels, with traditional retail stores and family-run shops accounting for a significant portion of sales [28][39]. - The KA (Key Account) channel, targeting young and affluent consumers, represents 20-30% of the market but is less prevalent compared to other Southeast Asian countries [39][41]. - Installation services for air conditioning are a critical part of the sales process, with specialized channels accounting for 20-25% of air conditioning sales [45][47].

Group 1 - Hong Kong home appliance stocks experienced a collective rise, with TCL Electronics up 4%, Midea Group up 3.8%, Hisense Home Appliances up 3.5%, Haier Smart Home up 2.5%, Skyworth Group up 2%, and JS Global Life up 1% [1] - JD.com reported strong sales data for the Double 11 shopping festival, with 3C digital products, major appliances, and small appliances leading online sales in their respective categories. Daily necessities saw a year-on-year growth rate of 36%, while the apparel category experienced a 30% year-on-year growth [1] - CITIC Construction Investment's outlook for the home appliance sector in 2026 indicates that the sector may underperform the CSI 300 index in 2025 due to tariff increases, fluctuations in trade-in policies, and high base expectations in the second half of the year. However, from a long-term perspective, the competitiveness of companies will ultimately return to the essence of product innovation and efficiency advantages [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy highlights two main growth sources: international expansion and the benefits of transformation [1]