Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced a strong rebound since September 24, 2023, driven by significant policy measures, with core broad indices recording over 20% gains, while the CSI 2000 index, which covers small and micro-cap companies, has surged over 64% [1][2][68] - The CSI 2000 index is characterized by low market capitalization and high elasticity, making it a key driver of the current market rally [1][2][68] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, with M2 balance growing by 8.3% year-on-year as of June 2025, indicating continued liquidity support [1][3][68] Group 2 - The number of specialized and innovative enterprises within the CSI 2000 index has reached 521, accounting for 26.05%, primarily benefiting from targeted fiscal support and technological advancements [1][5][68] - The focus on specialized and innovative policies has been instrumental in promoting small and micro enterprises, aligning with the direction of "new quality productivity" [5][7][68] Group 3 - Institutional investors have shown increased interest in small-cap stocks, with the market capitalization of actively managed funds in the CSI 2000 index rising significantly since Q4 2024 [8][10][69] - The trading volume of the CSI 2000 index has increased from less than 10% in 2021 to nearly 30% of the total market trading volume, reflecting heightened investor activity [10][12][69] Group 4 - The CSI 2000 index, launched on August 11, 2023, selects 2000 securities with smaller market capitalizations and good liquidity, focusing on emerging industries [14][70] - As of July 18, 2025, the average market capitalization of the CSI 2000 index components is 5.355 billion, significantly lower than other indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 500 [17][70] Group 5 - The CSI 2000 index has shown superior long-term performance compared to other broad indices, with an annualized return of 9.29% since its inception [39][70] - The index's high growth potential is expected to offset its high valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 138.35 as of July 18, 2025 [22][70] Group 6 - The Huaxia CSI 2000 ETF, launched on September 6, 2023, aims to track the CSI 2000 index and has achieved a cumulative excess return of 30.46% since its inception [43][71] - The ETF's excess returns are primarily attributed to stock selection, demonstrating effective management and strategy [55][71]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The sportswear industry is experiencing internal differentiation, with overall sales growth driven by volume rather than price, particularly in the outdoor category which saw a sales increase of 9.9% and an average price increase of 15.5% [6][7] - International brands are showing a polarized performance; Nike's sales dropped by 13.9% while Adidas achieved a strong growth of 18% through aggressive pricing strategies [6][7] - Domestic brands are recovering some market share driven by running shoes, with Anta and Li Ning showing mixed results in sales performance [7] Group 2: Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 36.4% year-on-year revenue increase in H1 2025, with a net profit growth of 37.2% [14][15] - The company’s product categories showed significant growth, particularly in electrolyte water and other beverages, with revenue increases of 213.6% and 65.2% respectively [15][16] - Dongpeng's investment in marketing and new product launches is expected to enhance profitability, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 revised upwards [17] Group 3: Financial Engineering Insights - The market for small and micro-cap stocks, represented by the CSI 2000 index, has shown significant resilience and growth, outperforming larger indices with a 64% increase since September 2024 [18][19] - The liquidity easing measures by the central bank have positively impacted small and micro-cap stocks, enhancing their market performance [18][19] - The CSI 2000 ETF has provided substantial excess returns since its inception, indicating strong investment opportunities in this segment [19] Group 4: Transportation Industry Insights - The express delivery sector is expected to see reduced competition due to the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to improve service quality and stabilize pricing [11][12] - The shipping industry is facing a softening of oil prices, with expectations of a bottoming out in shipping rates during the summer [10][11] - The aviation sector is experiencing a decline in flight volumes post-peak summer season, but there are expectations for price stabilization in the domestic market [11][12]

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Brinson Attribution Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model is used to decompose the excess return of a portfolio relative to its benchmark into contributions from sector allocation and stock selection [59] **Model Construction Process**: The Brinson model decomposes the excess return ($R_p - R_b$) into two components: $$ R_p - R_b = \sum_{i=1}^{N} (w_{pi} - w_{bi})R_{bi} + \sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{pi}(R_{pi} - R_{bi}) $$ - $w_{pi}$: Portfolio weight in sector $i$ - $w_{bi}$: Benchmark weight in sector $i$ - $R_{pi}$: Portfolio return in sector $i$ - $R_{bi}$: Benchmark return in sector $i$ The first term represents the sector allocation effect, and the second term represents the stock selection effect [59] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies the primary source of excess returns, highlighting the significant contribution of stock selection in the analyzed ETF [59] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Sampling Replication Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor aims to balance tracking error and liquidity by selecting representative stocks from the index components [51][54] **Factor Construction Process**: - **Layered Sampling Method**: - Divide stocks into groups based on characteristics such as market capitalization and valuation - Select representative stocks from each group to form the portfolio [51] - **Optimization Sampling Method**: - Minimize tracking error by controlling the portfolio's risk exposure to match the benchmark index - Use optimization techniques to ensure the portfolio aligns with the index's style factors (e.g., size, valuation, momentum) [54] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor ensures efficient tracking of the benchmark index while maintaining liquidity, making it suitable for indices with a large number of components [51][54] Backtesting Results of Models and Factors - **Brinson Attribution Model**: - Excess Return Attribution (2023-12-31): Total Excess Return: 3.09%, Sector Allocation: -0.04%, Stock Selection: 3.13% [60] - Excess Return Attribution (2024-06-30): Total Excess Return: 0.50%, Sector Allocation: -0.15%, Stock Selection: 0.65% [60] - Excess Return Attribution (2024-12-31): Total Excess Return: 3.10%, Sector Allocation: 0.10%, Stock Selection: 3.00% [60] - **Sampling Replication Factor**: - Tracking Error Metrics: - Average Deviation from Benchmark: 0.16%-0.44% - Maximum Deviation from Benchmark: 0.43%-1.35% [60] - Stock Coverage: - Number of Holdings (2023 Year-End): 824 stocks (812 from the index) - Number of Holdings (2024 Mid-Year): 844 stocks (837 from the index) - Number of Holdings (2024 Year-End): 914 stocks (901 from the index) [54] - **ETF Performance Metrics**: - Annualized Excess Return: 15.14% - Annualized Information Ratio (IR): 3.14 [56][58] - Cumulative Excess Return Since Inception: 30.46% [56] - IPO Allocation Returns: 2024: 1.80%, 2025 H1: 0.99% [62]

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap market is expected to continue its upward trend as long as the market remains accommodative, with significant performance observed in indices like the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000, which have outperformed major indices like the S&P 500 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 3, 2025, the CSI 2000 index has achieved a year-to-date increase of 15.41%, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 7 percentage points [1][2]. - The CSI 1000 index also shows strong performance, indicating that small-cap stocks are currently leading the market [1][2]. Group 2: ETF Performance - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has seen significant inflows, with a total of 600 million in large subscriptions despite recent market fluctuations [2]. - The 1000 Enhanced ETF (159680) has demonstrated a clear upward trend over recent months, with a cumulative excess return of 33.10% since its inception [5][6]. Group 3: Market Drivers - Three main factors are driving the small-cap bull market: high concentration of specialized and innovative companies in the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 indices, supportive policies for technology growth, and the high liquidity sensitivity of small-cap stocks [7][9]. - The current market environment is characterized by a focus on long-term competitiveness rather than short-term gains, suggesting a more sustainable growth trajectory for small-cap stocks compared to previous bull markets [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of quantitative private equity funds distributing dividends has raised concerns about potential market reversals, particularly in the context of small-cap stocks, as historical patterns suggest that such distributions often precede market downturns [1][4][5]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution Trends - In June, notable quantitative private equity firms, Yanfu and Kuande, made headlines with their dividend distributions, followed by Bridgewater China, which rarely engages in such actions [1][2]. - Data from Paipai Network indicates that 537 private equity funds have distributed dividends this year, with a total of 584 distributions, nearing 60% of last year's total [3]. - The phenomenon of frequent dividend distributions among quantitative private equity funds has become a topic of discussion, linking it to potential peaks in small-cap stock performance [2][4]. Group 2: Implications of Dividends - The question arises whether the ability of quantitative private equity to time dividends effectively correlates with market performance, especially after a strong year for small-cap stocks [4][5]. - Historical data shows that post-dividend market declines are not uncommon, suggesting a pattern where high dividend distributions coincide with market corrections [5][6]. - The practice of distributing dividends at net asset value peaks is common, as it maximizes performance fees for fund managers [7]. Group 3: Motivations Behind Dividends - The motivations for private equity funds to distribute dividends vary, including controlling fund size, adjusting net asset values for easier tracking, and creating a sense of scarcity through dividend and closure strategies [15][16]. - Most private equity funds aim to extract performance fees through dividends, which are one of the few opportunities to do so outside of redemptions and fixed contractual points [16][19]. - Dividends can help clients realize profits, especially in uncertain market conditions, by converting unrealized gains into realized gains [20][21]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the trend of dividend distributions, it does not necessarily indicate the end of the small-cap bull market, as many funds may reinvest their earnings back into the market [10][11]. - The private equity sector continues to see strong demand, with a significant number of new fund registrations and a notable increase in total assets under management [10][11]. - The focus remains on whether small-cap stocks can maintain their upward trajectory, as investor sentiment is closely tied to the performance of these stocks rather than the timing of dividend distributions [30].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the micro-cap stocks are benefiting from liquidity expansion, with the current market environment favoring small-cap growth stocks due to a lack of a clear trend in the market and ongoing inflation concerns [2][3][15] - The micro-cap stock index has shown a strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 30% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader market [3][11][19] - The report highlights that the shareholder structure of micro-cap stocks is predominantly composed of individual investors, which positions them to benefit from the release of excess household savings into the stock market [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report identifies that the micro-cap sector is primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, as earnings growth is not a major pricing factor in the current environment [4][45][53] - The micro-cap industry covers sectors such as manufacturing and technology, including themes like AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from ongoing industrial policy support [5][63][64] - The trading mechanisms in the micro-cap space, such as higher price limits on exchanges like the Beijing Stock Exchange and ChiNext, provide greater elasticity compared to the main board, enhancing the attractiveness of micro-cap stocks [57][58]