行业指数持续拉升之际，多只业绩回暖、净值爬出泥潭的基金，反而在净值解套之后迎来较大的赎回压力。 公告显示，近期包括大成丰华稳健六个月持有期混合、华宝远恒混合和海富通优势驱动混合等多只基金，因规模不达标而遭遇清盘危机。 值得注意的是，上述三只基金在这波牛市中刚刚爬出"净值泥潭"，基民就急不可耐大幅赎回。这种"亏30%能扛、赚1%发慌"的心态，深刻折射出 基民"恐高"、"害怕市场再度回落"的心态。 三基金艰难回本却遭巨额赎回 作为一只FOF基金，大成丰华稳健六个月持有期混合在成立头2年日子并不好过。天天基金网数据显示，自2022年8月至2024年2月初，该基金净值 一度回落至0.93。 但此后一年内，随着行情回暖，大成丰华稳健六个月持有期混合净值开启了反弹之路。经过长期缓慢爬坡后，该基金净值截至2025年7月下旬终于 再度突破1元。 历经三年、终于守得云开见月明的投资人，却开始了集体"逃离"。 7月30日、31日两天，因基金资产净值低于2亿元，大成丰华稳健接连发布2则"可能触发基金合同终止情形"公告，并最终于8月4日正式发布"基金 合同终止及基金财产清算"公告。 来源：基金公告 华宝远恒混合则呈现类似情况，该基金 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that a bullish market atmosphere is forming, but there is significant divergence among investors regarding the level of the bull market. The analysis highlights that in small bull markets, earnings are crucial, while in large bull markets, earnings are not the most important factor [2][7][19] - Since 1995, there have been three significant bull markets (with gains exceeding 150%) occurring in 1996-1997, 2005-2007, and 2014-2015, with only one (2005-2007) coinciding with a nominal GDP upturn. In contrast, smaller bull markets (with gains around 50-100%) also occurred three times, all during nominal GDP upturns [3][8][10] - The relationship between macro liquidity (interest rates) and the level of the stock market bull market is weak. Among the four bull markets since 2005, two experienced rising interest rates (2006-2007, 2009), one saw a decline (2014-2015), and one experienced fluctuations (2019-2021) [3][13][15] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that large bull markets are often catalyzed by policies and stock market funding. Historical data shows that when equity financing scales are lower than the dividends of listed companies, larger bull markets tend to follow. This pattern was observed in 1995, 2005, and 2013, leading to significant bull markets in the subsequent years [3][17][20] - The report suggests that the current market conditions, characterized by weak corporate earnings, positive policy stances, and active thematic opportunities, resemble previous periods that led to comprehensive bull markets. It predicts that as policy expectations increase in the second half of the year, the stock market is likely to enter a main upward trend [19][24][25]

Group 1 - Bill Gross warns of a "mini bear market" in the U.S. bond market, with the 10-year Treasury yield unlikely to fall below 4.25% [1][5] - He predicts that the stock market will experience a "mini bull market" driven by AI, despite challenges such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with economic growth expected to reach 1-2% [1][5] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 3% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq 100 index has increased by more than 5%, reaching a historical high recently [1][3] Group 2 - Gross believes there is insufficient reason for a significant decline in interest rates from current levels, based on historical trends [4][5] - He notes that the 10-year yield typically exceeds the consumer price index by 1.75 percentage points, currently hovering around 4.3% [5] - Factors such as surging fiscal deficits and a weakening dollar are expected to increase inflation, posing challenges for the U.S. bond market [5][6] Group 3 - Gross expresses a cautious outlook, stating that the movements in both the stock and bond markets will not be overly dramatic [6][7] - His latest views reflect a relatively moderate expectation for market prospects compared to his earlier stance in April, where he advised investors to remain cautious during tariff-induced market volatility [5][7]

Group 1 - Bill Gross warns of a "mini bear market" in the U.S. bond market, stating that the 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4.25% due to rising fiscal deficits and a weakening dollar, which will drive inflation higher [1][7] - Gross predicts that the stock market will experience a "mini bull market" driven by AI, with economic growth expected to reach 1-2% despite tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 3% and the Nasdaq 100 index has increased by more than 5% year-to-date, recently reaching a historical high [2] Group 2 - Analysts expect institutional investors to increase stock allocations following retail investors taking advantage of recent market dips [4] - Gross notes that the current 10-year yield is around 4.3%, which is typically 1.75 percentage points higher than the consumer price index, indicating limited reasons for a significant drop in rates [4][7] - Gross's latest views reflect a shift from his earlier stance in April, where he advised caution during tariff-induced market volatility [8][9]