证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所专题报告 北交所专题报告 20260226 工程机械复苏动能稳步释放，建议关注北交 所工程机械相关标的 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 2026 年 02 月 26 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 陈哲晓 执业证书：S0600124080015 sh_chenzhx@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《年度业绩快报密集发布，北证 50 上 涨 0.77%》 2026-02-25 《人民银行开展 5260 亿元 7 天期逆 回购操作，北证 50 上涨 0.37%》 2026-02-24 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 工程机械行业自 2025 年下半年进 ...

Group 1 - The recent launch of the engineering machinery ETF Huaxia (515970) has reached a new high since its listing, with the largest weighted stock Weichai Power increasing over 60% this year [1] - Weichai Power holds a weight of 20% in the ETF, while other machinery stocks like XCMG and Sany Heavy Industry have weights exceeding 10% [1] - Haitong International's report highlights Weichai Power's dual-driven growth and valuation reshaping, noting that the market undervalues it as a traditional heavy truck cycle stock with a 2026 PE of only 14.4 times [1] Group 2 - The domestic demand for engineering machinery is showing strong recovery signals, with the China Machinery Industry Federation reporting an 8.2% year-on-year increase in the added value of large-scale enterprises in the machinery industry for 2025 [2] - The total revenue for the machinery industry is projected to reach 33.2 trillion yuan, a record high, with total profits increasing by 5.9% year-on-year to 1.7 trillion yuan [2] - From January to October 2025, domestic excavator sales increased by 19.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement compared to 2024, marking a comprehensive recovery phase for domestic engineering machinery [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment in the engineering machinery sector [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is entering a recovery phase, with strong performance in both domestic and export markets. The sector's revenue is expected to accelerate, driven by increased demand and improved profitability [5][11]. - The annualized return of the GF Engineering Machinery ETF is reported at 75.03%, significantly outperforming competitors, showcasing its strong upward capture ability [2]. - The report highlights that the engineering machinery sector exhibits a much higher annualized return compared to the construction sector, with returns nearly three times higher despite similar volatility levels [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The engineering machinery sector has shown a comprehensive recovery in 2025, with domestic excavator sales increasing by 19.6% year-on-year from January to October. The sector's revenue grew by 12% in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][11]. - Profitability has improved, with net profit for the sector reaching 261 billion yuan, a 23% increase year-on-year [20][21]. 2. Domestic and Export Market Predictions for 2026 - Domestic excavator demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, with a peak sales volume of 250,000 units expected by 2028 [32]. - The export market is anticipated to enter a new upward cycle in 2026, driven by a potential easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate overseas demand [32]. 3. Profitability and Cost Efficiency - The report notes that the sector is experiencing a scale effect, with fixed costs being diluted as production increases, leading to enhanced profitability [5][11]. - Major companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion have reported improvements in their net profit margins, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [5][11]. 4. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the importance of capital availability in driving sales, particularly in the context of government funding for infrastructure projects [39]. - The competitive landscape remains stable, with no significant increase in competition, although the demand structure is heavily influenced by the types of excavators being sold [21][36].

Core Viewpoint - Yuan Chuang Co., Ltd. has become the first listed company in China's rubber track industry, marking a significant milestone for a niche champion in the market [1] Group 1: Company Background - Yuan Chuang's predecessor, Sanmen Rubber Factory, was established in 1991, initially producing ordinary rubber belts before transitioning to the rubber track industry in 1998 [2] - The company has evolved over 30 years, overcoming technological challenges and expanding its product range from agricultural tracks to engineering tracks and track plates [2][3] - Yuan Chuang has become one of the largest rubber track production bases in China, with an annual capacity exceeding 700,000 tracks and a product matrix covering over a thousand models [3] Group 2: Market Position and Client Network - The company has established a robust customer network, collaborating with leading domestic manufacturers and international traders, with the top five clients accounting for 49.94% of revenue in 2024 [5] - Yuan Chuang holds the top market share in China, recognized as a leading enterprise in the rubber track sector and awarded multiple honors by industry associations [5][6] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's revenue from agricultural and engineering tracks is projected to grow from 621 million yuan and 527 million yuan in 2022 to 715 million yuan and 539 million yuan in 2024, respectively [8] - Despite a temporary decline in 2023, the company demonstrated resilience with a revenue rebound of 18.19% in 2024 [8] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 8.05% year-on-year, reaching 1.053 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 6.27% [11] Group 4: Growth Drivers - The agricultural rubber track market is expected to grow annually by 8%-10% due to increasing mechanization rates and supportive government policies [13] - The global engineering machinery market is also on an upward trend, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.84% from 2016 to 2024, providing further growth opportunities for Yuan Chuang [16] - The company plans to raise 485 million yuan through its IPO, with 400 million yuan allocated for production base expansion, focusing on enhancing capacity for engineering and high-end agricultural tracks [16] Group 5: Production Capacity and Utilization - As of the first half of 2025, the company's rubber track production capacity utilization rate increased to 92.38%, up from 88.32% in 2022 [17] - The production capacity for rubber tracks is projected to reach 670,000 units in 2024, with a significant increase in output expected post-expansion [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 78.157 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.977 billion yuan, also up 11.67% year-on-year [7] - The revenue growth accelerated in the third quarter, with a revenue of 23.349 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.99% [7] - The company has a global presence with nearly 50% of its revenue coming from overseas, supported by a robust global operational framework [7] - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a recovery across all categories, driven by domestic demand and infrastructure projects [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 7.356 billion, 9.554 billion, and 11.995 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.0, 13.1, and 10.4 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 92,848 in 2023, 91,660 in 2024, projected 102,849 in 2025, 118,435 in 2026, and 138,034 in 2027 [6][8] - Net profit (million yuan): 5,326 in 2023, 5,976 in 2024, projected 7,356 in 2025, 9,554 in 2026, and 11,995 in 2027 [6][8] - EPS (yuan): 0.45 in 2023, 0.51 in 2024, projected 0.63 in 2025, 0.81 in 2026, and 1.02 in 2027 [6][8] - ROE (%): 9.5 in 2023, 10.1 in 2024, projected 12.0 in 2025, 14.1 in 2026, and 15.9 in 2027 [6][8] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 10.50 yuan as of October 30, 2025 [2] - The company's market performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 8%, while the CSI 300 index has increased by 5% [4]

Group 1: Humanoid Robot Sector - CITIC Securities predicts a bullish outlook for the humanoid robot sector in Q4, highlighting the importance of Tesla's third-generation Optimus changes and mass production expectations as a critical window [1] - The domestic supply chain is expected to release continuous positive news related to capital operations, order shipments, and scenario implementations in Q4 [1] - The report recommends focusing on T-chain and sectors with better industry trends, faster growth such as sensors, dexterous hands, vertical applications, and domestic supply chains [1] Group 2: Excavator Industry - Huatai Securities notes an upward trend in the excavator market in September, forecasting a sustained recovery in the industry [2] - According to the Engineering Machinery Association, excavator sales in September 2025 reached 19,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with domestic and foreign sales at 9,200 units and 10,600 units, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 22% and 29% [2] - The report highlights the rapid growth of second-hand excavator exports driving domestic replacement demand and the continuous increase in market share for domestic brands overseas, recommending leading companies in engineering machinery and components [2] Group 3: Wind and Solar Energy Industry - Huatai Securities suggests paying attention to the wind and solar energy industry chains following the National Development and Reform Commission's recent draft on renewable energy consumption targets [3] - The new mechanism aligns renewable energy consumption targets with non-electric consumption, continuing the "whole economy" emission control approach from the September UN Climate Change Summit [3] - The report anticipates benefits for key wind turbine manufacturers, offshore wind projects, low-cost silicon materials, and high-efficiency batteries/components due to the promotion of green electricity and hydrogen applications [3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [2][32] - The specific companies recommended for "Increase" rating are Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Estun (002747), and Haomai Technology (002595) [2][32] Core Insights - In August, excavator sales reached 16,500 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.8% [10] - Loader sales in August totaled 9,440 units, with a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [10] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in August was 78.4 hours, showing a year-on-year decrease of 9.45% [11] - The industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with both domestic and international market sales maintaining double-digit growth [32] - The demand for construction machinery is expected to continue growing due to favorable policies and reduced tariff disturbances globally [32] Industry News - In August, excavator sales included 7,685 units sold domestically (up 14.8%) and 8,838 units exported (up 11.1%) [10] - For the first eight months of 2025, a total of 154,181 excavators were sold, marking a 17.2% increase year-on-year [10] - The average operating rate for major construction machinery products in August was 55.1%, down 6.83 percentage points year-on-year [12] Company Announcements - Ruina Intelligent announced the signing of a contract for a project by its wholly-owned subsidiary [20] - Taifu Pump Industry is planning a significant asset restructuring to acquire at least 51% of Nanyang Huacheng Technology [21] Market Review - From September 3 to September 9, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.21%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment industry decreased by only 0.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.20 percentage points [22] - As of September 9, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment industry was 30.62, with a valuation premium of 133.32% compared to the CSI 300 [23]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the construction machinery industry, with specific references to companies like SANY and Zoomlion, as well as the overall market dynamics in China and export markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Growth Trends**: The growth rate for the first quarter was around 14%, but there were significant discrepancies in May, with small and medium enterprises showing varied performance. The overall forecast remains optimistic with a growth rate of over 10% expected for the month [1][1][1]. 2. **Domestic Sales and Recovery**: Despite a decline in construction activity and payment collection in late April, there has been a noticeable improvement compared to the same period last year. The government is expected to introduce new fiscal policies by the end of June, supporting a moderate recovery in domestic sales [2][2][2]. 3. **Export Performance**: The export data for mid-May was disappointing, but this is attributed to the inherent randomness in half-month reporting. Official customs data and EM databases are being used to assess export performance [2][3][3]. 4. **Regional Growth Rates**: Notable growth rates were reported in regions such as Southeast Asia (e.g., Indonesia at 138%), Africa, and Latin America, while North America showed a 7% increase. The growth in these regions is primarily driven by demand for construction machinery [3][3][3]. 5. **Export Dynamics**: There is a distinction between customs data and AM database data, with customs data showing faster growth. The presence of small and medium enterprises may lead to discrepancies in reported export figures [4][4][4]. 6. **Trade Tariffs Impact**: The impact of trade tariffs on exports to the U.S. has been significant, with various tariffs affecting the cost structure for companies. The engineering sector has been adapting to these tariffs since 2018, with strategies including relocating production to Southeast Asia [6][6][6]. 7. **Long-term Outlook**: The overall sentiment is that the engineering sector is poised for a moderate and sustained recovery over the next three to five years, with a compound annual growth rate expected to be favorable. Companies are focusing on shareholder returns and improving asset quality [11][11][11]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Tariff Adjustments**: The recent adjustments in tariffs have provided some relief, but the overall impact on smaller enterprises remains a concern due to their higher exposure to tariff fluctuations [7][7][7]. 2. **Supply Chain Adjustments**: Companies are exploring alternative solutions to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including using domestic engines and hybrid solutions, although challenges remain for larger machinery [9][10][10]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of the construction machinery market, with expectations of a gradual improvement in demand driven by structural changes in the industry [11][11][11].

Group 1: Company Performance and Market Opportunities - The company focuses on the automotive industry, which has become a strategic growth area, with over 100 self-lubricating bearings used per vehicle, enhancing performance and comfort [2] - The global humanoid robot market is projected to exceed 5 million units and reach a market size of over 400 billion yuan by 2025, presenting significant opportunities for component suppliers [3] - The engineering machinery sector shows signs of recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 22.8% in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a favorable market environment for the company [3] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Challenges - The company's gross margin for 2024 is reported at 35.16%, a slight decrease from 35.81% in 2023, primarily due to fluctuations in raw material prices and exchange rates [4] - Approximately 40% of the company's revenue comes from international markets, making it susceptible to currency exchange rate fluctuations [4] - The company has implemented a pricing mechanism linked to raw material costs to mitigate the impact of price volatility [4] Group 3: Production Capacity and Technological Advancements - The company has sufficient production capacity to meet future market demands, with the ability to produce automotive and robotic components on the same production line [3] - Recent expansions include new factory buildings and the introduction of over 20 fully automated bearing forming machines, enhancing production efficiency and product quality [3] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The company does not hold military industry qualifications but specializes in self-lubricating bearings and high-performance polymers for various sectors, including automotive and robotics [6] - The automotive and engineering machinery sectors together account for approximately 80% of the company's total revenue, with the automotive sector showing consistent growth [6] - The revenue from the robotics sector is currently less than 1% of total revenue, indicating that this area is still in its early development stage [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's profitability is steadily improving, with a projected revenue of 91.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.28%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 12.20% to 5.976 billion yuan [1][4] - The increase in profitability is attributed to product structure optimization and a higher proportion of overseas revenue, alongside cost reduction efforts [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the construction machinery sector, with a forecasted net profit of 7.964 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 33.3% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.55% and a net margin of 6.53%, with year-on-year changes of +0.17 and +0.89 percentage points respectively [1] - Operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 5.720 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.18% year-on-year, indicating improved cash return capabilities [1] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic and overseas revenues for 2024 are expected to be 49.972 billion yuan and 41.687 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of -10.17% and +12.00%, leading to an overseas revenue share of 45.58% [2] - The company’s revenue from earth-moving machinery, piling machinery, and concrete machinery is expected to grow, while revenues from concrete machinery, lifting machinery, and aerial work machinery are projected to decline [2] Market Outlook - Domestic excavator sales are expected to grow by 11.74% in 2024, with continued growth in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the upcoming replacement cycle [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic construction machinery sector and is likely to benefit from the overall recovery in the industry [3]