Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of having a systematic and emotionless investment strategy, particularly through regular investment in index funds, to withstand market volatility and emotional reactions [4][33]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The essence of the market is volatility, and investors often react emotionally, leading to poor decision-making such as chasing highs or cutting losses prematurely [6][10]. - A mechanical execution of a pre-defined investment strategy can help investors avoid emotional pitfalls and maintain discipline during market fluctuations [6][9]. - Establishing rules during calm periods is crucial to ensure adherence during turbulent times, allowing investors to remain steadfast [4][6]. Group 2: Key Elements of a Long-term Investment Strategy - A long-term investment strategy should include four key elements: a suitable index fund portfolio, defined investment and accumulation conditions, attention to rebalancing and pre-set profit-taking conditions, and thorough record-keeping and periodic review [10][11]. - The portfolio should be built based on risk tolerance and the intended use of funds, incorporating broad-based indices and sector-specific indices for flexibility [12][13]. - Setting specific conditions for investment and accumulation, such as regular intervals for evaluation and thresholds for undervaluation, is essential for disciplined investing [14][16]. - Regular rebalancing and pre-defined profit-taking strategies help maintain the desired portfolio structure and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [18][19]. Group 3: Tools and Processes for Execution - Implementing a set of tools and processes is necessary to transform investment rules into automatic actions, ensuring consistent execution [21][22]. - Key tools include an index holding table, a valuation temperature table, an execution checklist, and an operation log to track investment activities and adherence to the strategy [23][24][26]. - Periodic reviews and optimizations of the strategy based on accumulated experience and changing market conditions are vital for long-term success [28][30]. Group 4: Conclusion - The journey of long-term investing is often turbulent, requiring a structured approach to navigate market fluctuations effectively [31][32]. - By establishing rules, building a disciplined investment framework, and utilizing tools for execution, investors can achieve stable returns while minimizing emotional interference [33][34].

Group 1 - The article presents a choice between taking $5 million in cash immediately or opting for a penny that doubles in value every day for 31 days, which illustrates the power of compound growth [1][4] - If the penny option is chosen, after 31 days, the value would reach approximately $20 million, showcasing the potential of compounding [4][5] - However, the article critiques the unrealistic nature of achieving high compound growth rates consistently, suggesting that a daily increase of 75% is nearly impossible [7][8] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the average annual return of the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation, is only 7.31%, significantly lower than the often-quoted 15% [15][21] - The article emphasizes that only a small number of investors can endure years of losses and still achieve the average return, highlighting the challenges of long-term investing [17][18] - It points out that wealth accumulation follows a power-law distribution, where a few individuals capture most of the gains, while the majority receive mediocre returns [23][24] Group 3 - The article argues that the notion of everyone having the opportunity to become wealthy through compounding is misleading and reflects a lack of intellectual honesty [30][32] - It suggests that successful investing often relies on factors beyond mere methodology, such as being born in favorable economic conditions [33] - The conclusion drawn is that significant wealth accumulation is rare and often a matter of chance rather than a guaranteed outcome of investment strategies [34][57]

Core Viewpoint - Retirement investment is a long-term "marathon" where inflation acts as an invisible opponent, making it difficult to rely solely on savings to outpace rising prices. Proper allocation to equity assets, such as stock index funds, is crucial for enhancing the preservation and appreciation of retirement funds [2]. Group 1 - Retirement investment should not only seek stability; long-term investments resemble planting trees, where short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, but healthy assets will grow over time, leading to significant returns [2]. - The closed nature of personal pension accounts (withdrawals not allowed before retirement) is advantageous as it prevents impulsive trading, allowing for cost averaging through regular investments in index funds, thus enabling long-term participation in economic growth [2]. Group 2 - The annual contribution limit of 12,000 yuan for personal pensions is an ideal setup for a systematic investment plan, as index funds offer high transparency and allow for regular contributions while also enabling flexible strategy adjustments to seek excess returns [4]. - Market corrections should not cause anxiety; downturns present opportunities to lower average costs through additional investments, as a continuously rising market would inflate investment costs [5]. - The 12,000 yuan is invested in batches, meaning that the impact of a single high purchase price is limited. Continuing to invest during downturns can reduce average costs, making long-term investments more cost-effective [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a scientific investment system, strict discipline, and risk control to significantly reduce the probability of losses and achieve long-term stable returns Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Acknowledgment of market unpredictability is crucial for investors [1] - Investment should be distinguished from speculation, focusing on the intrinsic value of companies [1] - Understanding the essence of risk is vital, where the real risk lies in permanent loss of capital rather than market volatility [1] Group 2: Building a Robust Investment System - Asset allocation should avoid putting all eggs in one basket [2] - Stock selection should focus on "three good" companies, emphasizing quality [2] - Trading discipline is essential, prioritizing buying at a good price over merely buying good stocks [2] Group 3: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Index fund dollar-cost averaging can help smooth out market volatility over time [3] - High dividend strategies provide a safety net during market fluctuations [3] Group 4: Risk Control Principles - Implementing stop-loss measures is critical to cut losses and let profits run [4] - Position management should ensure that there is always available capital for opportunities [4] - Avoiding common investment mistakes, such as using leverage or chasing hot stocks, is essential for long-term success [4] Group 5: Trading Behavior and Performance - Retail investors in A-shares trade significantly more than institutional investors, leading to higher transaction costs and lower returns [5] - Long-term holding strategies improve success rates, with a notable increase in winning probabilities for investments held over three years [5] Group 6: Conclusion and Long-term Perspective - The article concludes that true success in the stock market comes from controlling drawdowns and compounding returns over time [5] - Emphasizing the importance of capital preservation over short-term gains is crucial for sustained investment success [5]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘微涨微跌，波动不大，截止到收盘，还在5.1星。 大盘股波动不大，小盘股上涨。 医疗、科技等上涨。 医药行业几个龙头公司发布财报，盈利增长逐渐恢复，带动今天医药医疗比较强势。 港股微涨，港股科技股领涨。 港股科技股在4月初大跌后重回低估。 这两周上涨比较多，目前还在低估，不过距离正常估值也比较接近了。 1. 最近市场进入了震荡期，连着两周，大盘上下波动都比较小。 马上就是五一假期了。 本周二周三还是正常交易。 本周二发车也继续。 过了周三15点，就进入假期，基金也暂停交易；下周二恢复正常。 假期里就不用买卖基金了，假期里申购赎回也是等假期后才成交。 2. [大吉大利，今天吃基] 第362期的螺丝钉定投实盘来啦。 时间：2025年4月29日 方案：定投买入 品种： 指数增强投顾组合：11579元 主动优选投顾组合： 12878元 其实在整个历史上，大约只有7%的时间是市场大幅上涨的阶段，其他时间是震荡和下跌行情。 但也就是这7%的时间，带来了市场大多数的回报。 点击下图，即可立即跟投买入： 点击下图，即可立即跟投买入： 定投 金额采用的是 「定期不定额」的策略，估值 ...

红利、价值等是上涨主力。 食品饮料等必需消费也大幅上涨，中证消费指数上涨较多。 昨天也提到过，像红利、消费等品种受关税影响比较小。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 小盘股相对低迷。中证2000指数继续下跌。 今天中证全指盘中一度下跌0.5%，不过出现神奇两点半。 到收盘变成上涨，回到5.3星。 大中小盘股都上涨。 最近市场回落后，买入资金量大幅增加，是最近几个月的高点； 不过暂时还没到去年5.9星时那么多。 通常是在市场大跌后，买入的资金量大幅增加；市场上涨后，买入的资金量减小。 2. 【4月9日晚7点直播预告】 有朋友问，近期全球市场为啥出现巨大波动？过去20年，美股经历了哪些牛熊市？ 美股有哪些常见的指数，各自有啥特点 ？投资美股基金有哪些风险？ 周三4月9日，也就是明晚7点，螺丝钉会跟大家通过直播课，来交流一下这些问题。 1. 在全球市场大幅下跌后，各个国家也开始推出一些救市政策。 昨天、今天，场内的300、500ETF都出现了明显的成交量提升。 中证500的成交量，仅今天上午就超过昨天全天。 有大机构的资金流入数百亿。 最近一年多，国家队等机构通过指数基金来加仓，买入了几千亿的指数基金，并持有 ...