Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - As the previous policy's bullish expectations are digested by the market, the coal - chemical sector has corrected, and the cost support for methanol has weakened. The fundamental logic will dominate the futures market. With domestic methanol plants resuming production, supply pressure is rising, imports are sufficient, and port inventory is expected to increase significantly. In a weak supply - demand context, the methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Situation - Although there was concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas in early July, the spot price didn't rise significantly due to sufficient downstream inventory. Since late July, previously shut - down plants have resumed production, and the methanol operating rate will gradually increase. As of the week of August 1, the domestic average methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, a 3.28 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last month, and an 11.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The weekly average methanol output was 193.02 tons, a 3.13 - ton increase from the previous week, a 5.69 - ton decrease from the same period last month, and a 31.20 - ton increase from the same period last year. Short - term domestic methanol supply recovery is greater than maintenance losses [3] - Since the third quarter, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been sufficient. Although weather affected the arrival and unloading of imported methanol in China, the overall impact was limited, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation at ports in East and South China is strong. In July, due to typhoons, only 110.69 tons of imported methanol were unloaded, and over 20 tons were postponed to August. Longzhong Information predicts that without weather interference, China's methanol imports in August will reach 155 tons, a monthly record high [4] Demand Situation - The recent shutdown of olefin plants in Zhejiang has increased the inventory accumulation pressure at methanol ports in East China. Although inland CTO procurement has improved apparent port demand, with the expected significant increase in methanol imports in August and no increase in the load of coastal olefin plants, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has risen, possibly leading to methanol flowing from ports to inland areas. As of the week of August 1, the methanol port inventory in East and South China was about 65.03 tons, a 6.32 - ton increase from the previous week, a 15.06 - ton increase from the same period last month, and a 15.80 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory accumulation pressure, low trader purchasing willingness, weak basis, and weak supply - demand expectations have led to a significant decline in spot trading volume [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to trade tensions and changes in Indonesian policies, leading to a complex supply-demand dynamic in the nickel market [2][4][6]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Nickel prices dropped to a low of 115,000 yuan/ton in early April due to heightened risk aversion from trade conflicts, but later recovered to a range around 125,000 yuan/ton as market sentiment improved [2]. - The price of nickel has been constrained within a narrow range, primarily due to a shift in trading logic and the oversupply in the nickel industry, particularly from Indonesia [4][16]. - The Indonesian government has adjusted the tax rates on nickel products, increasing the nickel ore tax from a fixed 10% to a floating rate of 14%-19%, which is expected to provide some price support [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Indonesia's nickel resources are becoming increasingly significant in the global market, with the country implementing various policies that impact nickel pricing and supply [5][6]. - The global supply of refined nickel has been in surplus, with inventories rising from 50,000 tons to around 250,000 tons, indicating a growing imbalance in the market [13]. - Domestic demand for nickel, particularly in the stainless steel sector, is under pressure due to slow recovery in real estate transactions and seasonal demand fluctuations [8][15]. Group 3: Production and Capacity - China's refined nickel production has increased significantly, with a cumulative output of 140,000 tons in the first four months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.94% [11]. - The production capacity utilization rate for domestic refined nickel enterprises remains high at 96.94%, indicating robust production levels despite external challenges [11]. - New production capacities in Indonesia and China are gradually displacing traditional high-cost nickel producers, leading to a shift in the global supply landscape [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of wide-ranging fluctuations, with strong cost support from Indonesian policies and ongoing supply constraints limiting downward price movements [16]. - The end of the rainy season in the Philippines is anticipated to increase nickel ore shipments, which may lead to a more relaxed supply situation [16]. - The overall sentiment in the nickel market is cautious, with steel mills adopting a conservative approach to raw material procurement amid a backdrop of weakening demand [16].