▲CCMN现货镍本周走势图 影响本周镍价走势复盘：长江现货市场1#镍价呈现出典型的"倒V型"剧烈震荡走势。全周行情以急涨急跌为主 要特征，市场情绪转换迅速。价格从周一开盘约139,800元/吨起步，在乐观情绪推动下连续强势上行，并于周三 触及周内高点151,600元/吨，三日累计涨幅显著。然而，高价区域遭遇强劲阻力，随后市场风向骤变，自周三峰 值后价格急速回落，在获利了结与抛压影响下连续下行，至周五收盘时已回落至约143,850元/吨附近，几乎回吐 前半周全部涨幅。尽管全周收盘价仍略高于周初开盘，勉强录得小幅上涨，但这一明显的"冲高—回落"形态， 凸显出市场多空博弈异常激烈，价格在短期内缺乏坚实支撑。后续走势需密切关注当前价位附近的整固情况， 以及新的供需平衡点能否形成。本周总均价报146050元/吨，较前一周整体上涨1170元。 本周（1月5-9日）长江现货镍价走势呈现先暴涨后暴跌的"倒V型"过山车行情，其核心驱动力是宏观预期与现实 基本面的剧烈碰撞。 走势回顾：预期推动冲高，现实压制回落 周初（5-6日）急涨：价格从139,800元/吨涨至144,750元/吨。主要受印尼拟大幅削减镍矿配额的突发消息刺激， ...

智通财经获悉，力勤资源(02245)再涨超4%，近四个交易日累涨超23%。截至发稿，涨4.5%，报19.74港 元，成交额3570.43万港元。 银河期货发布研报称，近期印尼频繁调整政策，希望托底镍价，包括收缩RKAB配额至2.5亿吨、对钴 征税、以及环保监管等举措，刺激镍价超跌反弹。其中最为重要的是印尼RKAB的配额自今年的3.79亿 吨大幅降至2.5亿吨，市场较为担忧印尼明年待投产的镍产品项目缺乏原料，镍矿价格将出现大幅上 涨。该政策符合印尼新政府的战略方向，但最终实施方式暂不明确。印尼政策可信度略低，关注后续进 展。 中金此前指出，力勤资源目前已覆盖镍矿贸易、冶炼生产、设备制造和销售等完整产业链环节。公司在 上游与菲律宾、印尼等矿企签订长期贸易和供货协议，中游印尼OBI岛形成共计40万金属吨镍产能，下 游延伸拓展硫酸镍钴等，已形成全面镍产品服务体系。该行认为，公司印尼的湿法产能有望受益，且未 来存在扩张印尼镍产业链布局的潜力，驱动公司业绩和估值抬升。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...

银河期货发布研报称，近期印尼频繁调整政策，希望托底镍价，包括收缩RKAB配额至2.5亿吨、对钴 征税、以及环保监管等举措，刺激镍价超跌反弹。其中最为重要的是印尼RKAB的配额自今年的3.79亿 吨大幅降至2.5亿吨，市场较为担忧印尼明年待投产的镍产品项目缺乏原料，镍矿价格将出现大幅上 涨。该政策符合印尼新政府的战略方向，但最终实施方式暂不明确。印尼政策可信度略低，关注后续进 展。 智通财经APP获悉，力勤资源(02245)再涨超4%，近四个交易日累涨超23%。截至发稿，涨4.5%，报 19.74港元，成交额3570.43万港元。 中金此前指出，力勤资源目前已覆盖镍矿贸易、冶炼生产、设备制造和销售等完整产业链环节。公司在 上游与菲律宾、印尼等矿企签订长期贸易和供货协议，中游印尼OBI岛形成共计40万金属吨镍产能，下 游延伸拓展硫酸镍钴等，已形成全面镍产品服务体系。该行认为，公司印尼的湿法产能有望受益，且未 来存在扩张印尼镍产业链布局的潜力，驱动公司业绩和估值抬升。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience a short - term weak adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the competition at the 116,000 - yuan mark. The Philippines is in the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. The potential variables of Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes have limited impact on supply recently. The supply of the pure nickel market is under great pressure, while the demand side shows positive trends. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the technical side shows a bearish atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the 01 - 02 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,675 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 18,301 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,092 tons, an increase of 564 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 42,508 tons, an increase of 1,726 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,390 tons, an increase of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,939 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 192.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.7 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,469.71 tons, a decrease of 17.62 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.73 tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects to cut interest rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion US dollars. Powell said that the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months, the labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected, and it can wait patiently at the current interest rate, and the impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the candidate for the Fed chairman in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].

国投期货高级分析师 吴江：镍和不锈钢条线是有色金属和黑色系中偏空头较为明显的两个品种，在 2024-2025年长达七个季度处于较为窄幅的低位震荡走势，中间炒作过印尼矿业政策的扰动，有色金属 整体的金融属性抬升，但无论怎样的利好，镍价和不锈钢价格始终保持着稳定的空头趋势行情，近期更 是再度击穿下方支撑12万元关口，再创多年新低。产业本身的因素仍然是贯穿多年的主导因素：①镍元 素供应过剩，中国厂商在印尼大量建厂，印尼镍矿和镍铁产能多年维持两位数增速，并最终体现为全产 业链过剩；②技术路线打通，镍铁，纯镍，硫酸镍三条路线低成本互通，产品之间无溢价；③需求平 淡，不锈钢虽有制造业提振，但地产继续拖累整体需求，三元路线受到磷酸铁锂技术路线挤压。 在以12万为震荡区间下沿，宽幅震荡了逾四个月后，沪镍期货终于作出了方向性的抉择。期价在11月的 第二个交易日放量下行，如今已下挫至五年低位。 近期镍价屡创新低，主要受哪些因素影响？镍成本支撑逻辑是否仍然有效？后市价格将怎样运行？文华 财经【机构会诊】板块邀请沪镍期货专家为您深入阐述。 【机构会诊】：近期镍价屡创新低，主要受哪些因素影响？ 一德期货投资咨询部高级分析师 谷静：从供 ...