证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 行业龙头上调业绩指引，户外行业景气度不减 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1页共 4页 户外品牌龙头亚玛芬体育与昂跑 2025 年以来业绩表现亮眼，均多次上调财年 业绩指引。亚玛芬体育凭借"多品牌、跨区域、DTC 驱动"战略，2Q25 及 3Q25 调整后毛利率与 EBIT 率均超市场预期，收入指引持续上调，萨洛蒙、始祖鸟 等核心品牌及亚太、中国区域增速尤为突出；昂跑 3Q25 亚太地区净销售额增 速高达 109.2%。龙头企业的高增长与盈利扩张，印证了户外行业的高景气度。 国内户外市场正处于高速成长期，2019-2024 年高性能户外服饰市场 CAGR 达 13.8%，2025 年前三季度线上增速持续优于服装大盘。尽管中国户外运动参与 人数超 4 亿，但参与率仍低于欧美成熟市场，增长潜力充足。行业竞争格局 分散，高端市场由国际品牌主导，专业国产品牌凭借功能优势、高性价比或 渠道创新在中端市场突围， ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the stabilization of global tariff negotiations, which does not alter the core competitiveness of global manufacturing, and highlights optimism towards two major industrial chains and a price increase cycle [3][4]. Industry Performance Review - As of November 14, 2025, the SW textile and apparel index has increased by 16.9%, ranking 17th in relative performance across the market. The manufacturing sector shows higher certainty compared to brands still in recovery [4][8]. - Domestic demand is at a low point in 2025 but is expected to recover in 2026-2027, focusing on the characteristics of young consumer groups to explore high-growth areas in new consumption [4][21]. New Consumption Trends - High-performance outdoor apparel is identified as a growth area with low penetration and high potential, with the market size projected to reach 102.7 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 17% year-on-year [4][33]. - Discount retail is highlighted as a scarce high-growth area within the consumption sector, with rapid expansion in urban outlets and hard discount specialty stores [4][46]. - The personal care and cleaning market, particularly wet wipes, is noted for its rapid growth and increasing necessity among young consumers, with a market size in China expected to reach 100 billion yuan [4][62]. - The sleep economy is emerging as a significant market, with explosive growth in household textile products, driven by young consumers' acceptance [4][20]. - The report discusses Nike's innovation cycle, which is expected to benefit from inventory replenishment and product innovation, similar to Adidas's recovery cycle [4][20]. - The Australian wool price increase cycle is anticipated due to supply contraction and demand highlights, with potential market space comparable to previous high points in 2011 and 2018 [4][20]. - The healthcare material upgrade cycle presents broad replacement opportunities for overseas non-woven fabrics [4][20]. Global Manufacturing Insights - The report notes that the resolution of tariff variables is expected to lead to a new growth phase for leading companies [4][27]. - The textile industry has undergone a pressure test for external demand, with recent tariff negotiations expected to boost export chain expectations for 2026 [4][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth new consumption areas and the competitive strength of global manufacturing as key investment strategies [4][27].

Core Viewpoint - The outdoor apparel industry in China is experiencing a growth opportunity driven by multiple positive factors, with the industry scale expected to double in the next five years and long-term growth potential exceeding three times [1][2]. Industry Overview - The domestic outdoor apparel industry has gone through three development phases: rapid growth from 2010 to 2014, a slowdown from 2015 to 2019, and a resurgence since 2020. The slowdown was attributed to macroeconomic shifts, uneven industry development, and intensified competition. Current positive factors include standardized industry practices, increased outdoor demand due to the pandemic, and a younger consumer base [2][3]. Market Potential - The high-performance outdoor apparel market in China is projected to reach 102.7 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% from 2019 to 2024. The market is expected to double in the next five years, with long-term growth potential exceeding three times [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The market is relatively fragmented, with the top 10 brands holding a combined market share of 27.2% in 2024. International brands dominate, while domestic brands are gradually increasing their market share through competitive pricing and fashionable designs [4]. Company Spotlight: BERSHKA - BERSHKA, established in 2012, is the seventh largest brand in China's high-performance outdoor apparel market, holding a market share of 1.7%. The brand focuses on mid-to-high-end pricing, with most products priced under 1,000 yuan, differentiating itself from international brands. Revenue is projected to grow from 378 million yuan in 2022 to 1.766 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 116%, while net profit is expected to rise from 24 million yuan to 283 million yuan, with a CAGR of 241% [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles reached 742.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1] - The resilience and vitality of China's clothing consumption market continue to be released, driven by policies promoting consumption [1] Group 2: Material Trends - Natural materials, particularly linen and ramie, are leading a new wave of consumer trends, permeating the fashion industry from high-end custom to mass-produced garments [1] - In Shenzhen's Nanyou clothing market, linen apparel has become a mainstream category since its rise in the second half of 2024, with vibrant colors boosting sales significantly [3] Group 3: Functional Apparel Growth - The demand for functional apparel is experiencing explosive growth, with consumers seeking comfort and visual relaxation, leading to a significant increase in raw material prices [4] - The market for high-performance outdoor apparel is projected to grow from approximately 102.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 121.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [10] Group 4: Innovation in Fabric and Design - Fabric innovation is rapidly reshaping consumer experiences, with a rising demand for functional apparel driven by the popularity of sports trends [5] - Designers are utilizing special eco-friendly fabrics that combine leather-like gloss with wind and water resistance for upcoming collections [7] - A textile company has developed functional silk fabric that addresses traditional silk's shortcomings, expanding its applications and becoming a new profit growth point [8] Group 5: Fast Fashion Adaptation - The fast fashion industry is under pressure to meet increasing consumer demands for rapid product updates, leading to the adoption of a "small batch quick response" model [15] - This model allows manufacturers to compress the production cycle from over three months to under a week, achieving zero inventory goals by aligning production with market demand [15]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the distinction between "capital expenditure reduction," "capacity reduction," and "output reduction" in the context of anti-involution policies, drawing parallels to supply-side reforms from 2016-2017 [1][10] - The current anti-involution policies are expected to lead to a significant decline in capital expenditure growth in the midstream manufacturing sector, with the growth rate hitting a new low since 2012 [2][10] - The report predicts that by mid-2026, the fixed asset formation growth rate of listed midstream manufacturing companies will fall below the nominal GDP growth rate, indicating a visible turning point in supply-demand dynamics [3][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Anti-Involution Policies - The report identifies three core elements of the supply-side reform experience from 2016-2017: "capacity reduction," "output reduction," and the significant impact of demand-side stimulation [1][10] - The current anti-involution policies are seen as a systematic correction of excessive investment in advanced manufacturing driven by local government subsidies from 2022-2024 [2][10] - The report suggests that the current environment is not conducive to strict "output reduction" policies due to the lack of mechanisms for implementation in privately-owned advanced manufacturing sectors [2][10] Section 2: Market Trends and Predictions - The report anticipates that the supply-demand dynamics in the midstream manufacturing sector will improve significantly by 2026, with a focus on sectors such as electric equipment, steel, and building materials [3][10] - The report maintains a bullish outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, despite concerns over liquidity fluctuations [3][10] Section 3: Outdoor Apparel Industry - The outdoor apparel market in China is projected to reach a scale of 102.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17%, driven by factors such as increased health awareness and a shift towards experiential consumption [15][16] - The brand "Berghaus" has shown remarkable growth, with a projected revenue of 1.77 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 94.5% [15][16] - The report highlights the competitive landscape of the outdoor apparel industry, noting that the top ten brands account for only 27.2% of the market, indicating significant room for growth [15][16]