传统产业是国民经济的"压舱石"，更是现代化产业体系的根基。传统产业覆盖衣食住行等民生领域，吸 纳海量就业，在经济波动中彰显强大韧性，还能通过技术改造焕发新活力，为新质生产力提供应用场景 与产业支撑。 绿色发展为传统产业开辟了广阔增量空间。从超低排放改造，到循环经济实践，绿色转型不仅推动传统 产业淘汰落后产能、优化产业结构，还培育出节能降碳、资源循环利用等新增长点。这不仅契合"双 碳"目标要求，更能催生绿色产品、绿色技术等新供给，满足市场升级需求。在现代化产业体系构建 中，绿色发展让传统产业既守住生态底线，又拓展发展边界，成为推动经济高质量发展的新动能。 消费扩容为传统产业升级提供精准导向。内需市场的提质扩容，既倒逼企业提升产品品质、开发个性化 新品，也推动生产模式向定制化设计、柔性化生产转变。消费端的大数据洞察，助力传统产业实现精准 供给与快速响应，让产品开发与市场需求紧密联动。个性化消费、体验式消费等新模式，带动传统产业 从产品创新到模式创新实现全方位升级。 数智转型是传统产业提质增效的重要引擎。从智能制造车间的生产线升级，到工业互联网平台的协同调 度，数智技术正重塑传统产业的生产范式。它打破信息壁垒，实现 ...

证书编号：S0790524030002 jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 春季躁动提前开启，结构先行特征鲜明，科技占优条件依然未变 2026 年 01 月 04 日 掘金 1 月春季躁动的机会 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 我们在 11.30 的报告《提前布局春季躁动》当中指出：近期市场出现了一定的调 整，但我们认为当下已经可以更加积极。我们在 12.21 提出，当前可以进一步积 极的原因还有：前期市场调整的 3 大因素影响都在减弱：其一为海外流动性扰动， 美联储降息对冲了日本加息的冲击；其二为美股财报窗口下 AI 泡沫论的风险溢 出得到改善，无需恐慌；其三为近期出炉的经济数据相对温和，叠加中央经济工 作会议并未有显著超预期的点，但我们认为，人民币汇率持续升值或代表全球投 资者对中国经济信心仍然充足，证伪此担忧。 当前 A 股市场已正式进入 2026 年"春季躁动"的预热与布局窗口。与过往普涨 行情不同，本轮躁动在宏观经济数据尚待验证、增量资金稳步入场的背景下，呈 现出鲜明的"结构先行、机会 ...

湘财证券指出，消费市场保持平稳增长，消费潜力持续释放，并呈现出显著的结构性特征。升级类商品 消费旺盛，在"以旧换新"等政策助推下，与品质生活和提升效率相关的商品销售增长迅猛。新型与绿色 消费活跃，智能、健康、绿色等新型消费理念正催生新的市场增长点，智能穿戴、智能健康设备、有机 食品等销售额均实现显著增长。此外，县域商业潜力释放，乡村消费增速持续快于城镇，表明随着县域 商业设施的完善和乡村振兴战略的推进，下沉市场正成为消费扩容的重要阵地。在国内扩内需稳增长政 策持续刺激推进下，国内线下消费能力与意愿有望进一步走高，建议关注国货美容护理头部品牌，尤其 是稀缺的高端国货品牌。 据悉，"十四五"以来，零售业对促进消费和投资的贡献巨大。2024年全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长 3.5%。2025年前三季度，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店、品牌专卖店零售 额，同比分别增长6.4%、4.4%、0.9%、4.8%、1.5%。 零售板块10日盘中再度活跃，截至发稿，欢乐家涨超12%，永辉超市、中央商场、美凯龙、安记食品、 东百集团等均涨停。值得注意的是，安记食品已连续7个交易日涨停，东百集团、永辉超市分别斩获 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The total savings of Chinese citizens surged from 70 trillion to 161 trillion over five years, with an average increase of nearly 65,000 yuan per person, indicating a significant accumulation of wealth that is not flowing into the consumer market [1][3] - The M2 money supply has exceeded 335 trillion, significantly surpassing the reasonable level of twice the GDP, leading to a blockage of 65 trillion yuan in the banking system, which directly impacts consumer spending and investment [3][5] - The real estate market, once a cornerstone of household wealth, has seen prices decline by an average of 30% in first-tier cities, causing families to prioritize cash reserves over investments [3][5] Group 2: Challenges Facing the Economy - The decline in the real estate sector is attributed to three major challenges: the fading demographic dividend, obstacles to globalization, and the unsustainable land finance model [5] - The birth rate has plummeted from 17.86 million in 2016 to 9.54 million in 2024, with a total fertility rate of 1.1, which is lower than Japan's [5] - The shift in consumer confidence is evident as young people face employment pressures, with over 60% earning less than 6,000 yuan per month, leading to a cautious approach towards spending [1][3] Group 3: Policy Responses and Opportunities - The government aims to stimulate the economy through technology innovation, domestic demand, and deepening reforms, with an annual investment of 1 trillion yuan in technology via long-term special bonds [5][7] - The potential for domestic consumption is significant, with 400 million middle-income individuals having a service consumption rate of only 46%, compared to 68% in the U.S. [7] - The real estate transformation presents new opportunities, with projects like affordable housing and urban renewal expected to generate nearly 2 trillion yuan in investments annually [7][8] Group 4: Shifts in Wealth Allocation - There is a notable shift in wealth allocation among Chinese households, moving from a focus on real estate to seeking new investment avenues in the stock market, particularly in technology sectors [8][10] - The capital market reforms have positioned the stock market as a vital funding source for innovative enterprises, redirecting funds from real estate to emerging sectors like AI and low-altitude economy [8][10] - The housing market dynamics are changing, with a focus on proximity to urban centers and newer properties becoming critical factors for homebuyers, while older properties face depreciation risks [10]

Core Points - The meeting emphasized the need for the city to take responsibility and enhance its efforts to achieve the goals set by the provincial and municipal governments [1] - There is a focus on addressing existing issues and enhancing investment quality and efficiency in key industries [1] - The city aims to accelerate consumption growth and deepen the integration of science and industry to maintain a positive growth trend [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of solidifying the foundation for future development and ensuring the completion of key livelihood projects by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The city government is committed to implementing the spirit of the 20th National Congress and the requirements from higher authorities [1] - There is a call for collective effort to tackle challenges in the fourth quarter and ensure a successful conclusion to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The focus is on enhancing investment and improving efficiency in key sectors to drive economic growth [1] Group 2 - The meeting discussed strategies to expand consumption and promote the integration of technology and industry [1] - There is an emphasis on increasing fiscal revenue while managing and mitigating debt risks [1] - The city government aims to ensure safety and stability while planning for future development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Consumption is identified as the "main engine" of economic growth and a "barometer" of people's well-being, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to drive economic growth and stability [2][3]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - Various regions are actively promoting new consumption trends through innovative scenarios, business formats, and supply, as seen in the development of night-time economies and cultural tourism in cities like Chengdu [4][5][6]. - The integration of culture and tourism is emphasized, with initiatives to create iconic commercial districts and promote new consumption models, contributing to economic growth [6][7]. Group 2: Intelligent Supply and New Engines of Consumption - The automotive industry is leveraging smart production lines, with companies like Lantu Auto achieving significant growth in vehicle deliveries, indicating a shift towards intelligent manufacturing [9][10]. - The footwear industry in Putian is transitioning to high-end products through intelligent and digital transformation, showcasing the impact of technology on consumer experiences [10]. Group 3: Enhancing Livelihoods and Consumer Welfare - Community initiatives in Xiamen are enhancing convenience and quality of life, with a focus on creating a "15-minute living circle" that integrates various services [12][13]. - Employment generation is highlighted as a key aspect of improving livelihoods, with the clothing e-commerce sector in Tianmen creating thousands of jobs and achieving substantial transaction volumes [14][15].

Core Insights - The 2025 "Charm Ranking" released by the New First-Tier Cities Research Institute shows a reshuffling of 70 third-tier cities, with Zhongshan ranked 3rd, Nanyang 11th, and Shantou 16th, highlighting their competitive advantages in industry, population, and consumption [1][8]. Group 1: Zhongshan - Zhongshan's rise to 3rd place is attributed to its advantageous location as "Shenzhen West," with the Shenzhong Passage expected to open next year, reducing travel time to 20 minutes [3]. - The city has attracted 210 high-end manufacturing projects from Shenzhen, with a total investment exceeding 180 billion yuan, while also modernizing traditional industrial clusters, leading to the highest industrial profit growth rate in the province for two consecutive years [3]. - With housing prices only one-third of Shenzhen's and an increase of 80,000 permanent residents in six months, Zhongshan's commercial appeal has significantly increased [3]. Group 2: Nanyang - Nanyang, ranked 11th, has transformed from a "Central Grain Warehouse" to a "Central Medicine Valley," leveraging its reputation as the hometown of traditional Chinese medicine [5]. - The city has developed three trillion-yuan industrial chains in traditional Chinese medicine, mugwort, and meat products, with a national-level traditional Chinese medicine high-tech zone established [5]. - Nanyang's transportation infrastructure, including the intersection of the Jiaotang and Nanjin high-speed railways, facilitates access to major cities, contributing to a significant influx of labor and a notable increase in the local consumer market [5]. Group 3: Shantou - Shantou, ranked 16th, capitalizes on its dual strengths of being a "Hometown of Overseas Chinese" and a port city [7]. - Over the past decade, Shantou has introduced 460 overseas Chinese-funded projects, and the second phase of the Guoao Port has been put into operation, achieving an annual throughput of over 4 million TEUs [7]. - The city has successfully turned local specialties like Chaoshan cuisine, toys, and underwear into popular live-streaming products, with its express delivery volume ranking in the top 20 nationwide, fostering entrepreneurship among young people [7].

Core Insights - The new consumption model is empowering the economy beyond mere sales growth, showcasing multi-dimensional value through "consumption expansion, industrial upgrading, and vitality release" [1][2] - Experts believe that the vigorous development of new consumption will be a crucial driver for stimulating consumer demand and promoting economic growth in the coming period [2][3] Consumption Expansion and Economic Growth - New consumption activates existing potential while opening up new growth spaces, with policies like the upgrade of the old-for-new consumption scheme contributing significantly [2] - The central government has allocated 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to expand subsidies to 12 product categories, leading to sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan and benefiting 400 million people by June 2025 [2] Supply-Side Transformation - New consumption is driving industries towards green and intelligent transformation, with over 50% of new energy vehicle replacements and 90% of first-level energy-efficient appliances sold [3] - Emerging consumption forms such as instant retail and VR events are expected to grow rapidly, with the instant retail market projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [3] Diverse Consumer Demands - Innovations in retail and e-commerce are enhancing consumption efficiency and shopping experiences, while the rise of content creation and knowledge payment is expanding consumption into cultural and intellectual realms [4] - The growth of new consumption is supported by factors such as the widespread application of new information technologies, improved infrastructure, rising income levels, and an evolving consumer demographic [4] Emotional and Experiential Consumption - Modern consumers are shifting from purchasing goods to seeking emotional value, as seen in the rise of experiences like escape rooms and urban exploration [5] - The rapid growth of health and cultural consumption reflects new consumption's response to the demand for a better quality of life [5] Challenges and Development Gaps - Despite rapid growth, new consumption faces challenges such as regional imbalances, supply shortages, and regulatory lag [6] - The digital divide is evident, with rural internet penetration at 65.6%, significantly lower than the national average of 78.6%, hindering the potential of new consumption in rural areas [6] Recommendations for High-Quality Development - Experts suggest a multi-faceted approach to enhance new consumption, including innovative regulatory frameworks and improved digital infrastructure to bridge the digital divide [7] - The development of new consumption is seen as a pathway to expand domestic demand and transition towards high-quality economic growth, with a focus on meeting personalized consumer needs [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - Consumption shows significant differentiation, with strong resilience in service and online demand, while commodity consumption remains under pressure. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. The year-on-year growth rate of service retail sales is faster than that of commodity retail sales. Some industry policies are optimized to offset the downward pressure. Domestic policies focus on consumption expansion and industrial upgrading. However, real estate risks are still not cleared. The average housing price in 100 cities across the country has dropped by more than 33% from the peak, and the average decline in first-tier cities has reached 29.5%. Currently, housing prices have not stopped falling. The economic structural contradictions are prominent, and further interest rate cuts, optimization of mortgage rates, and expansion of fiscal deficits may be needed to support growth. The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals. [1][8][82] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In August, the consumption growth rate continued to decline, with prominent performance in service consumption and online consumption. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, down 0.2 pct from January to July. In terms of sub-items, from January to August, the year-on-year growth rates of commodity retail sales and service retail sales were 4.8% and 5.1% respectively, down 0.1 pct from January to July [9]. - On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", proposing 19 measures in five aspects [16]. - The Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau issued a notice to optimize and adjust the personal housing property tax pilot policy, stating that homebuyers who hold a Shanghai residence permit for three years and work and live in Shanghai and purchase a new home in Shanghai as their family's first home are temporarily exempt from property tax [16]. - On September 18, the Fed announced a 25BP interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. The interest rate dot plot shows that the median expectation of Fed officials is that there will be two more 25BP interest rate cuts this year, one more than the prediction in June [16]. 3.2 Meso-High Frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of September 14, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 6.1 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and the average daily wholesale volume was 6.7 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [15]. - As of September 18, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days was 614.469 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [15]. - As of August 29, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.337 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, and the total retail sales were 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [20]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of September 14, the container throughput of ports in the current week was 6.652 million twenty-foot equivalent units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [23]. - As of September 19, the average migration scale index in the past 7 days was 496.3, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [23]. - As of September 14, the postal express pick-up volume in the current week was 3.83 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [29]. - As of September 14, the railway freight volume in the current week was 80.434 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 57.712 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [31]. 3.2.3 Operating Rate - As of September 17, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in the country was 78.1%, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 pct. As of September 18, the average asphalt operating rate was 26.0%, a year-on-year increase of 3.0 pct [36]. - As of September 18, the soda ash operating rate was 85.8%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 pct. As of September 19, the average PX operating rate was 86.8%, and the average PTA operating rate was 78.1% [39]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.731 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [43]. - As of September 12, the second-hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 1.598 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [47]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of September 19, the average pork wholesale price was 19.7 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%, and a decrease of 2.0% compared to four weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 5.0 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%, and an increase of 3.4% compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 6.8 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, and a decrease of 1.0% compared to four weeks ago [50]. - As of September 19, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 689.0 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%, and a decrease of 1.3% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 63.3 US dollars/barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, and an increase of 0.6% compared to four weeks ago [55][56]. - As of September 19, the average spot price of rebar was 3144.2 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, and a decrease of 3.2% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 809.4 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and an increase of 3.3% compared to four weeks ago [60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On September 19, the overnight Shibor was 1.46%, up 5.30BP from September 15. R001 was 1.50%, up 5.19BP from September 15; R007 was 1.52%, up 3.29BP from September 15. DR001 was 1.46%, up 5.04BP from September 15; DR007 was 1.51%, up 2.64BP from September 15. IBO001 was 1.50%, up 5.24BP from September 15; IBO007 was 1.54%, up 1.67BP from September 15 [63]. - Most treasury bond yields increased. On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year treasury bonds were 1.39%/1.62%/1.87%/2.20% respectively, down 1.0BP/up 0.5BP/up 0.8BP/up 1.7BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year China Development Bank bonds were 1.60%/1.79%/2.02%/2.29% respectively, up 2.1BP/down 2.9BP/down 0.9BP/up 2.7BP from September 12 [65]. - On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year local government bonds were 1.54%/1.83%/2.02% respectively, unchanged/down 1.5BP/down 0.4BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of AAA 1-month/1-year and AA+ 1-month/1-year interbank certificates of deposit were 1.58%/1.68%/1.60%/1.71% respectively, up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP/up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP from September 12 [67]. - As of September 19, 2025, the 10-year treasury bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, up 8BP/4BP/4BP/4BP from September 12 [73]. - On September 19, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.11/7.11 respectively, up 109/-99 pips from September 12 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for interest rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. In the past month, it has been decreasing overall. On September 19, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.6 years, a decrease of about 0.2 years compared to last week (September 12) [79]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend. In the past month, the duration has increased rapidly and then fluctuated. On September 19, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 3.1 years, and the estimated median duration was about 3.0 years, an increase of about 0.03 years compared to last week (September 12) [81]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals [84].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Xiangchao" consumption promotion series in Changsha aims to enhance economic development through sports and cultural integration, leveraging the 2025 "Xiangchao" league as a platform to stimulate consumer activity and promote local products [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event "Xiangchao" was inaugurated on September 7 at the Helong Sports Center East Square, attended by key officials from the provincial commerce and tourism departments, as well as the deputy mayor [1] - The 2025 "Xiangchao" league is positioned not only as a football event but also as a significant opportunity for deep integration of culture, sports, and commerce, aimed at releasing consumer vitality [1] Group 2: Activities and Initiatives - Changsha has launched four major themed activities under the "Xiangchao Dangran·Changsha Goodies" theme, including the introduction of the "Xiangchao Ticket Discount Card" and the establishment of a themed market [1] - The city will set up a "second venue" for viewing matches throughout the city and distribute 20.25 million yuan in exclusive "Xiangchao" consumption vouchers to create an immersive experience combining watching matches, shopping, and tourism [1] Group 3: Government Commitment - The deputy mayor emphasized the importance of provincial and municipal collaboration, regional synergy, and high standards in service support to enhance the consumption environment and facilities [1] - The government plans to work with businesses to introduce more consumer-friendly policies, expand the supply of quality products and services, and leverage the popularity of the "Xiangchao" event to boost overall consumer activity in the city [1]