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【乘联分会论坛】6月狭义乘用车零售预计200.0万辆,新能源预计110万辆
乘联分会· 2025-06-20 13:18
Market Overview - During the "May Day" holiday, car manufacturers launched promotional policies, leading to a strong performance in the car market in May, with retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reaching 1.938 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% and a month-on-month increase of 10.0% [1] - New energy vehicle retail sales in May reached 1.027 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, with a penetration rate rising to 53.0% [1] June Market Outlook - The car market is expected to continue its upward trend in June, supported by the "trade-in" and "scrap renewal" policies, despite some regions experiencing temporary tightness in subsidy amounts [2] Manufacturer Sales Trends - In June, manufacturers are intensifying promotional efforts to meet quarterly and semi-annual targets, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% [3] - Retail targets for leading manufacturers are projected to grow by 15% year-on-year compared to May of last year, with an estimated total retail market of around 2 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [3] Weekly Sales Projections - The first week of June saw a decline in daily retail to 42,100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% [4] - The second week showed a recovery with daily retail reaching 52,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [4] - The third week, boosted by the "618" e-commerce promotion, is expected to see daily retail reach 68,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [4] - The fourth week is projected to achieve daily sales of 101,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [4] June Market Heat - The arrival of the "618" e-commerce season has prompted manufacturers to launch new promotional campaigns, with the overall market discount rate reaching approximately 25.2% in mid-June [5] - As of May 31, the number of applications for the trade-in subsidy reached 4.12 million, providing significant momentum for the car market [5] - However, some regions are experiencing temporary tightness in trade-in subsidy funds, which may lead to increased consumer hesitation and potential consumption risks in the third quarter [5]
潍柴动力(000338):一季度收入表现稳健 剔除凯傲一次性因素后盈利同比高增
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 06:38
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 57.46 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.71 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [1]. Group 1: Business Performance - The heavy truck industry saw a total sales volume of 265,000 units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. However, the company achieved a revenue increase of 1.9% year-on-year, outperforming the industry [1]. - The company's heavy-duty truck engine market position remains strong, with a high market share in natural gas engines. The sales volume of high-end products, particularly large-bore engines for data center applications, is expected to see significant growth [1]. - The company sold 43,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, which is better than the industry average [2]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 22.2% in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.9 percentage points. The actual gross profit margin showed a more significant improvement compared to the same period last year [2]. - Management expenses reached 7.1% in Q1 2025, with a notable increase due to expenses related to the efficiency plan of the subsidiary KION, impacting the quarter's expenses by approximately 1.47 billion yuan [2]. - After accounting for KION's one-time expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.18 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by the expansion of domestic scrapping and replacement policies and the continuous growth of non-Russian export markets [3]. - The company anticipates strong growth in its large-bore engine business, with nearly 400 units shipped for data center applications in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 148%. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, significantly enhancing the company's profitability [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 240.66 billion yuan, 260.94 billion yuan, and 275.17 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 13.06 billion yuan, 14.85 billion yuan, and 15.97 billion yuan [3].