智通财经APP获悉，1月11日，崔东树发文称，销量增长慢则车市均价呈现持续上升的态势，2019年乘用车零售均价是15.1万元，一路上升到2023年均价 是18.3万元，2024年乘用车均价是18.4万元，2025年1-12月乘用车均价是17.0万元，较2024年均价下降1.4万元，其中12月乘用车均价18.4万元，均价提升 0.3万。 前期常规燃油车价格持续上升，市场萎缩在中低端很明显，而高端萎缩慢，因此从2019年的15万元上升到2023年的18.3万元。2025年随着高端燃油车的较 快萎缩，2025年1-12月的均价降低到18.2万元，12月19.2万元，燃油车购买群体买车逐步稳定。 而新能源车的均价近期逐步下降，从2023年的均价18.4万元，下降到2024年的均价18.0万元，2025年的均价16.1万元，价格下降明显。2025年12月是17.9万 元，量跌价升，体现新能源车消费的结构性变化。 目前随着车购税免税政策的退出临近，新能源车市场火爆。随着新能源车免税技术指标的升级，部分短续航和高耗电车型面临改款压力。12月的A00级电 动车剧烈萎缩带来均价的上升，2026年销量增长压力较大。 | 零售额、 ...

Market Overview - During the "May Day" holiday, car manufacturers launched promotional policies, leading to a strong performance in the car market in May, with retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reaching 1.938 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% and a month-on-month increase of 10.0% [1] - New energy vehicle retail sales in May reached 1.027 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, with a penetration rate rising to 53.0% [1] June Market Outlook - The car market is expected to continue its upward trend in June, supported by the "trade-in" and "scrap renewal" policies, despite some regions experiencing temporary tightness in subsidy amounts [2] Manufacturer Sales Trends - In June, manufacturers are intensifying promotional efforts to meet quarterly and semi-annual targets, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% [3] - Retail targets for leading manufacturers are projected to grow by 15% year-on-year compared to May of last year, with an estimated total retail market of around 2 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [3] Weekly Sales Projections - The first week of June saw a decline in daily retail to 42,100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% [4] - The second week showed a recovery with daily retail reaching 52,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [4] - The third week, boosted by the "618" e-commerce promotion, is expected to see daily retail reach 68,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [4] - The fourth week is projected to achieve daily sales of 101,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [4] June Market Heat - The arrival of the "618" e-commerce season has prompted manufacturers to launch new promotional campaigns, with the overall market discount rate reaching approximately 25.2% in mid-June [5] - As of May 31, the number of applications for the trade-in subsidy reached 4.12 million, providing significant momentum for the car market [5] - However, some regions are experiencing temporary tightness in trade-in subsidy funds, which may lead to increased consumer hesitation and potential consumption risks in the third quarter [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 57.46 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.71 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [1]. Group 1: Business Performance - The heavy truck industry saw a total sales volume of 265,000 units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. However, the company achieved a revenue increase of 1.9% year-on-year, outperforming the industry [1]. - The company's heavy-duty truck engine market position remains strong, with a high market share in natural gas engines. The sales volume of high-end products, particularly large-bore engines for data center applications, is expected to see significant growth [1]. - The company sold 43,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, which is better than the industry average [2]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 22.2% in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.9 percentage points. The actual gross profit margin showed a more significant improvement compared to the same period last year [2]. - Management expenses reached 7.1% in Q1 2025, with a notable increase due to expenses related to the efficiency plan of the subsidiary KION, impacting the quarter's expenses by approximately 1.47 billion yuan [2]. - After accounting for KION's one-time expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.18 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by the expansion of domestic scrapping and replacement policies and the continuous growth of non-Russian export markets [3]. - The company anticipates strong growth in its large-bore engine business, with nearly 400 units shipped for data center applications in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 148%. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, significantly enhancing the company's profitability [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 240.66 billion yuan, 260.94 billion yuan, and 275.17 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 13.06 billion yuan, 14.85 billion yuan, and 15.97 billion yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic automotive market in China has shown strong growth in the first quarter of this year, with double-digit increases in production and sales, laying a solid foundation for continued market improvement throughout the year [1][2]. Production and Sales Growth - In March, domestic automotive production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 11.9% and 8.2% [2]. - For the first quarter, production and sales totaled 7.561 million and 7.47 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [2]. - The growth rates for production and sales in the first quarter narrowed by 1.7 and 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February [2]. Market Dynamics - The passenger vehicle market has outperformed the commercial vehicle sector, with retail sales in March approaching the historical high levels of March 2018 [2]. - The "dual new" policies (trade-in and scrappage incentives) have positively influenced the market, leading to a more favorable competitive environment and improved retail growth in March [2][3]. Future Outlook - Experts maintain confidence in the automotive market's growth for the second quarter, supported by ongoing policy effects and promotional activities [4]. - The upcoming Shanghai International Auto Show is expected to catalyze consumer demand and further stimulate market growth [4]. - The implementation of the new scrappage policy on April 24, 2024, is anticipated to contribute to a gradual recovery in the market [4]. Policy Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued a notice to expand the scope of scrappage and trade-in subsidies for vehicles, including certain models meeting the National IV emission standards [5]. - Despite external pressures and changes in consumer sentiment, the government's policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to continue to have a positive impact on the passenger vehicle market [5].