行业研究丨深度报告丨汽车与汽车零部件 [Table_Title] 整车管家系列：如何看待政策阶段的旺季行情 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘来看，当下条件与 2015-2017 年具有相似性，1）面临高基数压力；2）次年政策退出/补贴 力度退坡；3）指数经过调整。2017 年 9-11 月，高基数下总销量仍个位数增长，乘用车指数调 整后又走出一段新高行情。2024-2025 年以旧换新政策效果明显，政策支撑需求增长，2025 年 底前新能源车型可能抢装，有望在高基数压力下支撑总量企稳，乘用车指数回落提供反弹空间， 类比 2015-2017 年阶段，具有强销量增速，强新车周期，业绩表现较好的α整车企业可能走出 穿越周期的行情。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 麦贻智 SAC：S0490517060001 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 汽车与汽车零部件 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

乘联会方面表示，今年上半年在国家和地方政府鼓励汽车消费、提振经济的多重利好政策加持下，车市 走出了一条"复苏增长、结构调整、利润承压"的鲜明轨迹。1—6月，乘用车累计零售总量及新能源乘用 车累计零售分别取得了10.8%和33.3%的增长。据此，乘联会预测团队在7月中旬根据国内与出口市场超 预期的表现和未来4个月的滚动预测，稍微上调了2025年的行业年度预测。 预期上调，与国家和地方政府鼓励汽车消费、提振经济的多重利好政策息息相关，同时也与综合整 治"内卷"推动市场秩序回归理性有关。 "2025年，乘用车行业促销与降级均回归理性，市场秩序明显改善。"乘联会秘书长崔东树如是说。 政策利好与市场秩序改善的双重驱动下，2025年车市复苏动能持续增强。近日，中国汽车流通协会乘用 车市场信息联席分会（下称"乘联会"）宣布上调2025年汽车行业年度预测：乘用车零售增长6%、出口 增长14%、新能源批发增长27%。 这一调整背后，是上半年车市在政策红利与行业逐渐自律的双重加持下呈现的积极转向。以旧换新等消 费提振政策持续发力，叠加"反内卷"行动深化推进，使得无序降价竞争乱象显著降温，6月汽车行业利 润率已回升至6.9%高位。 ...

Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The Guangdong provincial government has announced measures to stimulate automobile consumption, including relaxing vehicle purchase restrictions and increasing purchase quotas [1] - The automotive industry has received strong momentum from various national and local policies aimed at boosting consumption, with first-quarter production and sales reaching 7.561 million and 7.47 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [1] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 41.2% of total new car sales, with production and sales of NEVs reaching 3.182 million and 3.075 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 50.4% and 47.1% [1] Group 2: Regional Promotions and Consumer Behavior - Regions such as Hunan, Fujian, and Sichuan are launching new automotive promotion policies to capitalize on the second quarter's consumption peak, enhancing subsidy details to better meet consumer needs [2] - The recent May Day holiday served as a significant opportunity for the automotive market, with several companies reporting substantial order increases, such as Hongmeng Zhixing achieving over 22,000 orders, doubling year-on-year [2] - GAC Trumpchi received 12,295 orders during the May Day holiday, a 10% increase year-on-year, while Geely Galaxy reported over 31,000 orders [3] Group 3: Company Performance and Sales Data - BYD reported April production of approximately 385,100 NEVs, a year-on-year increase of 15.28%, with total sales of about 380,100 units, up 21.34% [4] - Li Auto delivered 33,939 vehicles in April, marking a 31.6% year-on-year increase, with a cumulative delivery of 1,260,675 vehicles as of April 30, 2025 [4] - Xpeng Motors delivered 35,045 smart electric vehicles in April, a significant year-on-year growth of 273%, with total deliveries for the first four months reaching 129,053 units, up 313% [5] - NIO delivered 23,900 vehicles in April, a 53% increase year-on-year, with a total of 65,994 vehicles delivered in 2025 so far, reflecting a 44.5% growth [5]

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 3331 字，阅读全文约需 11 分钟 本文详细资讯可在中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会官网下载：www.cpcaauto.com 1.本周车市概述 乘用车： 4月1-27日，全国乘用车市场零售139.1万辆，同比去年4月同期增长10%，较上月同期下降 10%，今年以来累计零售651.8万辆，同比增长7%；4月1-27日，全国乘用车厂商批发156.9万辆，同比去年4月 同期增长10%，较上月同期下降16%，今年以来累计批发784.7万辆，同比增长11%。 新能源： 4月1-27日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售72.8万辆，同比去年4月同期增长24%，较上月同期下降 10%，全国新能源市场零售渗透率52.3%，今年以来累计零售314.8万辆，同比增长33%；4月1-27日，全国乘用 车厂商新能源批发84.6万辆，同比去年4月同期增长25%，较上月同期下降6%，新能源厂商批发渗透率53.9%， 今年以来累计批发369.5万辆，同比同期增长38%。 2.2025年4月全国乘用车零售市场平稳 | | 1-6日 | 7-13日 | 14-20日 | 21-27日 | 28- ...

近日，中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示，今年一季度，国内汽车产销保持两位数增长，为全年车 市持续向好发展打下了非常好的基础。 一季度车市喜提开门红也让专家对于今年车市的增长保持了信心。 中国汽车工业协会专务副秘书长许海东表示，展望今年二季度，相关政策组合效应持续释放，上海国际 车展开启新品密集发布周期，多地促销活动火热进行，将有助于进一步释放消费潜力，延续市场增长态 势。 产销增速喜人 今年3月份，国内汽车产销分别完成300.6万辆和291.5万辆，同比分别增长11.9%和8.2%。 "3月份汽车产销实现较快增长。"中国汽车工业协会副秘书长陈士华介绍说，乘用车表现仍优于商用 车，产销增速高于整体市场。 "近几年，国内乘用车市场零售量呈现前低后高的走势。今年3月份，国内乘用车的市场零售量仅稍低于 2018年3月份的历史最高水平，处于历年3月份的历史高位。"中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分 会秘书长崔东树表示，由于"双新"政策(以旧换新、报废更新)的推动，价格战相对温和，行业内卷状态 改善，今年3月份国内乘用车市场扭转了多年来3月份零售增速偏低的局面。 今年一季度，国内汽车产销分别完成756.1万辆和747 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market experienced significant growth in Q1 2025, with total production and sales reaching 7.561 million and 7.47 million vehicles, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 14.5% and 11.2% [2] - The growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector was particularly notable, with production and sales rising by 50.4% and 47.1% year-on-year [2][8] - The positive market performance is attributed to a series of consumer stimulus policies, enhanced consumer confidence, and a wave of new product launches [2][3] Automotive Market Performance - In the first three months of 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales totaled 6.513 million and 6.419 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16.1% and 12.9% [4] - Domestic sales of passenger vehicles reached 5.241 million, up 14.5% year-on-year, while exports amounted to 1.178 million, increasing by 6.1% [4] - March 2025 saw production and sales of passenger vehicles at 2.574 million and 2.468 million, with month-on-month increases of 44.2% and 36% [4] Market Share of Domestic Brands - Domestic brands captured 68.1% of the passenger vehicle market in Q1 2025, with sales of 4.369 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [5] - In March 2025, domestic brands sold 1.629 million passenger vehicles, representing 66% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [5] - The growth of domestic brands is attributed to technological innovation and improved product quality, allowing them to move up the value chain [5] Commercial Vehicle Market - The commercial vehicle sector also showed signs of recovery, with production and sales reaching 1.048 million and 1.051 million units in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.1% and 1.8% [4][6] - In March 2025, commercial vehicle production and sales were 431,000 and 447,000 units, with month-on-month increases of 35.8% and 42.8% [6] New Energy Vehicle Growth - The NEV market continued to thrive, with production and sales of 3.182 million and 3.075 million units in Q1 2025, marking year-on-year growth of 50.4% and 47.1% [8] - NEVs accounted for 41.2% of total new vehicle sales in Q1 2025, with March sales reaching 1.237 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.1% [8] - The growth in NEVs is driven by strong demand for both pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with significant increases in sales and exports [8][9] Export Performance - Total vehicle exports reached 1.42 million units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with NEV exports growing by 43.9% to 441,000 units [9] - Chery and BYD led the export rankings, with Chery exporting 254,000 units and BYD 214,000 units, reflecting significant year-on-year growth [9] Future Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with a projected total sales volume of 32.9 million vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [9] - NEV sales are anticipated to reach 16 million units, growing by 24.4% year-on-year, while exports are expected to hit 6.2 million units, up 5.8% [9]