行业研究丨深度报告丨汽车与汽车零部件 [Table_Title] 整车管家系列：如何看待政策阶段的旺季行情 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘来看，当下条件与 2015-2017 年具有相似性，1）面临高基数压力；2）次年政策退出/补贴 力度退坡；3）指数经过调整。2017 年 9-11 月，高基数下总销量仍个位数增长，乘用车指数调 整后又走出一段新高行情。2024-2025 年以旧换新政策效果明显，政策支撑需求增长，2025 年 底前新能源车型可能抢装，有望在高基数压力下支撑总量企稳，乘用车指数回落提供反弹空间， 类比 2015-2017 年阶段，具有强销量增速，强新车周期，业绩表现较好的α整车企业可能走出 穿越周期的行情。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 麦贻智 SAC：S0490517060001 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 汽车与汽车零部件 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The Guangdong provincial government has announced measures to stimulate automobile consumption, including relaxing vehicle purchase restrictions and increasing purchase quotas [1] - The automotive industry has received strong momentum from various national and local policies aimed at boosting consumption, with first-quarter production and sales reaching 7.561 million and 7.47 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [1] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 41.2% of total new car sales, with production and sales of NEVs reaching 3.182 million and 3.075 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 50.4% and 47.1% [1] Group 2: Regional Promotions and Consumer Behavior - Regions such as Hunan, Fujian, and Sichuan are launching new automotive promotion policies to capitalize on the second quarter's consumption peak, enhancing subsidy details to better meet consumer needs [2] - The recent May Day holiday served as a significant opportunity for the automotive market, with several companies reporting substantial order increases, such as Hongmeng Zhixing achieving over 22,000 orders, doubling year-on-year [2] - GAC Trumpchi received 12,295 orders during the May Day holiday, a 10% increase year-on-year, while Geely Galaxy reported over 31,000 orders [3] Group 3: Company Performance and Sales Data - BYD reported April production of approximately 385,100 NEVs, a year-on-year increase of 15.28%, with total sales of about 380,100 units, up 21.34% [4] - Li Auto delivered 33,939 vehicles in April, marking a 31.6% year-on-year increase, with a cumulative delivery of 1,260,675 vehicles as of April 30, 2025 [4] - Xpeng Motors delivered 35,045 smart electric vehicles in April, a significant year-on-year growth of 273%, with total deliveries for the first four months reaching 129,053 units, up 313% [5] - NIO delivered 23,900 vehicles in April, a 53% increase year-on-year, with a total of 65,994 vehicles delivered in 2025 so far, reflecting a 44.5% growth [5]

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 3331 字，阅读全文约需 11 分钟 本文详细资讯可在中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会官网下载：www.cpcaauto.com 1.本周车市概述 乘用车： 4月1-27日，全国乘用车市场零售139.1万辆，同比去年4月同期增长10%，较上月同期下降 10%，今年以来累计零售651.8万辆，同比增长7%；4月1-27日，全国乘用车厂商批发156.9万辆，同比去年4月 同期增长10%，较上月同期下降16%，今年以来累计批发784.7万辆，同比增长11%。 新能源： 4月1-27日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售72.8万辆，同比去年4月同期增长24%，较上月同期下降 10%，全国新能源市场零售渗透率52.3%，今年以来累计零售314.8万辆，同比增长33%；4月1-27日，全国乘用 车厂商新能源批发84.6万辆，同比去年4月同期增长25%，较上月同期下降6%，新能源厂商批发渗透率53.9%， 今年以来累计批发369.5万辆，同比同期增长38%。 2.2025年4月全国乘用车零售市场平稳 | | 1-6日 | 7-13日 | 14-20日 | 21-27日 | 28- ...