Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Entering the fourth quarter of 2025, a new batch of fixed - open bond funds priced using the amortized cost method are entering a concentrated opening period. These products can provide stable and predictable returns, alleviating investors' concerns about the uncertainty of the bond market and attracting market attention [1][11]. - From 2025Q4 to 2026Q2, the fixed - open bond funds with a 3 - 5 - year closed - end period will enter a new opening peak. Attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of 3 - 5y varieties, including high - grade general credit bonds and policy - financial bonds [5][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Historical Amortized Cost Method Bond Funds - **Open - period Peaks**: Since their establishment in 2019, amortized cost fixed - open bond funds have experienced multiple open - period peaks. The third peak is expected from 2025Q4 to 2026Q2. They were first issued in May 2019, with issuance peaks in Q4 2019 and Q3 2020, and previous open - period peaks in 2022Q4 - 2023Q1 and 2023Q4 [2][11]. - **Bond Allocation Structure**: Policy - financial bonds dominate the bond allocation of existing products, but their proportion has declined in recent years. As of Q3 2025, the proportion of policy - financial bond holdings has dropped from around 90% to around 75% [2][12]. - **Historical Performance**: When amortized cost method bond funds enter the intensive open - period, the heavy - position varieties corresponding to the product's closed - end period perform well. For example, when 3y and 7y funds were concentratedly established or reopened, the spreads of corresponding - term policy - financial bonds were significantly compressed [16]. 2. What's Different This Round? (1) Investor Perspective - **Bank Self - operation**: In the affiliated - party context, the scale of bank self - operation holding amortized cost fixed - open bond funds has remained stable at around 250 billion yuan in recent years, mainly holding products with a term of 3y and above, indicating a stable long - term allocation demand [3][17]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: In 2025, due to the rectification of the valuation - smoothing method through the trust mechanism, bank wealth management has significantly increased its holdings of amortized cost method bond funds. The scale has increased from 1.71 billion yuan in Q4 2024 to 9.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a nearly 5.4 - fold increase. Bank wealth management prefers medium - term credit bonds and short - term (3y and within) amortized cost method bond funds [20][23]. (2) Asset Perspective - **Shift in Bond Allocation Preference**: Since 2025, the bond allocation preference of amortized cost method bond funds entering the open - period has shifted from policy - financial bonds to credit bonds. Among the 36 funds that reopened in the first three quarters of 2025, most have changed their bond allocation from policy - financial bonds to general credit bonds, with only 3 still mainly investing in policy - financial bonds [4][26]. - **Reasons for the Shift**: Firstly, the participation of bank wealth management in the investor structure has increased, and they prefer credit bonds. Secondly, in a low - interest - rate environment, institutions pursue higher - coupon - return assets [26]. - **Grade and Term Distribution**: In terms of the top five holdings of these 36 funds, they are mainly AAA - grade high - grade bonds, followed by non - rated bonds. The term is generally in line with the closed - end period of the funds, and subsequent structural opportunities of corresponding varieties can be grasped according to the term distribution of maturing funds [27]. 3. Opportunities for 3 - 5y Varieties under the New Round of Amortized Cost Method Bond Fund Openings - **Open - period Characteristics**: From 2025Q4 to 2026Q2, fixed - open bond funds with a 3 - 5 - year closed - end period will enter a new open - period. The main term shows a switching characteristic of "3 - 5 years → 5 years → 3 years", and the 5 - year variety will reach a maturity peak for the first time since the concentrated establishment of products in 2020 [5][32]. - **Credit Bonds**: With the increasing trend of wealth - management funds, attention can be paid to the spread - compression opportunities of 3 - 5 - year high - grade general credit bonds. However, the credit spreads of 3 - 5y high - grade medium - and short - term notes have been compressed to a relatively low level since 2024, so it is advisable to wait for the implementation of the fund - fee new regulations before seizing allocation opportunities [5][33]. - **Policy - financial Bonds**: Due to the previous selling pressure of funds, the spread quantiles of 3 - 5y policy - financial bonds are at a high level since 2022. After the implementation of the fund - fee new regulations, it is a good allocation time. However, the insufficient incremental funds of new products flowing into policy - financial bonds may lead to a less - effective spread - compression market than before [6][35][37].

Core Viewpoint - The opening of a significant number of amortized cost bond funds is driving strong demand for credit bonds, reshaping the market dynamics [1] Group 1: Scale and Flow - In early November, seven amortized cost bond funds entered their open period, totaling 53.6 billion yuan; an additional 14 funds are expected to open in November and December, amounting to 102.3 billion yuan [2] - The shift in investment strategy towards credit bonds is a notable change for amortized cost bond funds, with projections indicating that by Q3 2025, the market value of credit bonds held by these funds will rise to 292.8 billion yuan, accounting for 15.4% of their portfolios [2][3] Group 2: Impact and Outlook - The demand from amortized cost bond funds has significantly increased net purchases of 3-5 year credit bonds, with net buying exceeding 11 billion yuan for two consecutive weeks [4] - The opening of these funds is expected to boost demand for 2-3 year credit bonds in December, with a combined opening scale exceeding 80 billion yuan [5] - The ongoing influx of bank wealth management funds into amortized cost bond funds necessitates a shift towards credit bonds to enhance yield attractiveness, particularly for medium to high-rated credit bonds [6]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that solid fundamentals lead to better investment outcomes [2] - The article introduces two valuation methods: amortized cost method and market value method, highlighting their differences where the former focuses on stability and the latter on directness [3]

Group 1 - The core concept of the article revolves around the importance of the deviation degree of money market funds as a risk indicator, alongside traditional yield metrics like the 7-day annualized yield [1][3] - The deviation degree is calculated using the formula: (shadow pricing net value - amortized cost net value) / amortized cost net value * 100%, indicating the difference between market value and book value of the fund's assets [2][3] - A positive deviation indicates potential unrealized gains, while a negative deviation suggests unrealized losses, which could materialize during redemptions [3][4] Group 2 - Fund managers are required to calculate the deviation degree on each valuation day, and if the absolute value exceeds certain thresholds, they must take specific actions and disclose information accordingly [3][4] - The thresholds for deviation degree are set at 0.25% and 0.5%, with corresponding actions required from fund managers to mitigate risks [4] - Investors can find deviation degree information in the fund's quarterly, semi-annual, and annual reports, specifically in the "Investment Portfolio Report" section [5][6] Group 3 - A specific fund's quarterly report indicated that the absolute value of the deviation degree was between 0.25% and 0.5% for 0 times, with a maximum deviation of 0.1600% and a minimum of 0.0228% [7] - The average absolute value of the deviation degree for each working day during the reporting period was 0.0854% [7] - Overall, the deviation degree serves as a crucial indicator for investors to gauge potential valuation volatility risks in money market funds, with short-term deviations being a normal occurrence [8]