宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 3 月 4 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 风险因素扰动下止盈意愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡下跌。A 股全天成交 3.16 万亿元， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 等待政策利好预期落地 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。消息面，上周末美伊冲突突然爆发，地缘风险快速升温，中东战 火导致霍尔木兹海峡通行受到实质性影响，油气、航运、军工、黄金等股票大幅上涨，股市成交额突 破 3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 政策利好预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严 谨 管 理 开 拓 进 取 扫码关 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the range [1][5]. - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of IH2603 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and bullish respectively, with a view of oscillatory consolidation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday, the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2270.2 billion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan from the previous day. With the stop - fall and rebound of silver, market sentiment has improved, and the operation logic of the stock index has returned to its own fundamentals. The positive expectations of the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, which constitute the core logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. However, in the short term, macroeconomic indicators have weakened, the pressure of "weak reality" has increased, and the capital side has become cautious approaching the long holiday, so the upward momentum of the stock index is expected to be insufficient [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly consolidate in a range. Although there are short - term disturbances such as the sharp fluctuations of silver and the weakening of macro - economic indicators, the long - term upward trend of the stock index is supported by policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index oscillated and slightly pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2163.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp fluctuations of silver disturbed the market sentiment, and the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market increased, resulting in a continuous contraction of the trading volume of the stock market. In the short term, the macro - economic indicators have weakened, and the pressure of "weak reality" has increased. Coupled with the weakening of risk preference caused by silver and the clear signal of risk control from the regulatory authorities, the stock market sentiment is cautious. However, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals are short - term disturbances from external factors, and the repair of the stock market risk preference will eventually return to its own fundamentals. The favorable expectations on the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, which constitute the core logic for the long - term upward movement of the stock index [5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating of the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock market risk preference is cautious, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the long - run, the logic of the stock index's upward movement is relatively reliable due to favorable policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market. However, in the short - term, the "weak reality" pressure of the macro - economy and the weakening of risk preference caused by silver have led to a cautious turn in the stock market sentiment [5] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "relatively strong", the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation", and the core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "relatively strong", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". Yesterday, the stock indexes fluctuated and pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2194.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 309 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp decline of silver weakened the market risk preference, making stock market funds more cautious and increasing the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market, resulting in continuous shrinkage of trading volume. In the long - run, the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged. But in the short - term, the "weak reality" pressure of the macro - economy and the weakening of risk preference caused by silver have led to a cautious turn in the stock market sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of policy benefits and the flow of funds [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the long - term, the logic of the upward movement of the stock index is relatively solid due to favorable policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds. In the short - term, due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators, the "weak reality" pressure appears, and the willingness of the capital side to take profits and leave the market has increased, resulting in a decrease in trading volume. [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic. [1] 2. Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2503.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 62.4 billion yuan from the previous day. In the long - term, the upward logic of the stock index is solid. In the short - term, there is "weak reality" pressure, and the capital side has a stronger willingness to take profits and leave the market. As the sentiment in the commodity market recovers, the risk preference of the stock market returns to its fundamental logic. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is to oscillate and consolidate, with the intraday view being weak and the medium - term view being oscillatory. The main logic is that the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled, the trading volume has declined, and there is a need for oscillatory consolidation after a sharp rebound. However, the long - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged due to positive policy expectations and continuous net inflow of incremental funds [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled and there is still a need for oscillatory consolidation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the stock index oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The total stock market turnover was 2732.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 324.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The macro - economy has strong resilience, but there are still concerns on the demand side. After a sharp rebound, the stock index needs to oscillate and consolidate. Although the optimistic sentiment has cooled and the trading volume has declined, the long - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IH2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "slightly strong", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong" due to unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "slightly strong", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong". The stock market's optimism has cooled, and there is a need for shock consolidation after a sharp rebound. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged, and it is expected that the stock indices will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: slightly strong; overall view: oscillating and slightly strong; core logic: unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: IF, IH, IC, IM. Intraday view: slightly strong; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillating and slightly strong. The total market turnover was 3054.7 billion yuan, an increase of 116.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market turnover dropped to around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling of optimism. After a sharp rebound, there is a need for shock consolidation. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is mainly range - bound, with the short - term for IH2603 being in a range - bound state, the medium - term being in a range - bound state, and the intraday being on the stronger side. The overall short - term view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is also range - bound, with the intraday being on the stronger side and the medium - term being in a range - bound state [1][5]. - The core logic is that policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting. The stock market had a callback and was close to the lower limit of the range, which was attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing strong support for the stock index. However, due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, there is insufficient motivation for policy intensification this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Stronger | Range - bound | Policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is in a range - bound state, and the reference view is range - bound [5]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index had an intraday rebound after an early - morning consolidation. The total stock market turnover was 181.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.59 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market's previous callback made it attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing support for the stock index. Due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, policy intensification is expected to occur in the first quarter of next year, and currently, the stock index is still in a range - bound state, but market risk appetite will gradually recover as policy - driven positive expectations ferment [5].