1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is to oscillate and consolidate, with the intraday view being weak and the medium - term view being oscillatory. The main logic is that the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled, the trading volume has declined, and there is a need for oscillatory consolidation after a sharp rebound. However, the long - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged due to positive policy expectations and continuous net inflow of incremental funds [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled and there is still a need for oscillatory consolidation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the stock index oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The total stock market turnover was 2732.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 324.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The macro - economy has strong resilience, but there are still concerns on the demand side. After a sharp rebound, the stock index needs to oscillate and consolidate. Although the optimistic sentiment has cooled and the trading volume has declined, the long - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IH2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "slightly strong", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong" due to unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "slightly strong", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong". The stock market's optimism has cooled, and there is a need for shock consolidation after a sharp rebound. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged, and it is expected that the stock indices will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: slightly strong; overall view: oscillating and slightly strong; core logic: unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: IF, IH, IC, IM. Intraday view: slightly strong; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillating and slightly strong. The total market turnover was 3054.7 billion yuan, an increase of 116.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market turnover dropped to around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling of optimism. After a sharp rebound, there is a need for shock consolidation. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期逐渐发酵 | 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均早盘震荡整理，午后快速反弹，全天震荡上涨。股市全市场成交额 18140 亿 元，较上日成交额放量 659 亿元。由于此前股市震荡回调，接近震荡区间下沿，从中长期的角度看具 备较强吸引力，中长期投资者入市推动股指反弹。政策面强调扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务， 因此政策面稳定宏观需求的预期较强，对股指形成较强支撑。由于完成今年经济增长目标的压力较 小，年内政策加码的动力不足，政策的发力点预计在明年一季度，目前股指仍然处于震荡区间内，不 过后市随着政策利好预期不断发 ...