证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 国产机器人放量在即，看好柴发边际变化 工 信部召开光伏产业座谈会，规范光伏产业竞争秩序 我们认为，此次会议站位高远、立场鲜明，会中明确提出"遏制 低价无序竞争"，有望引导行业良性健康发展。当前，硅料、硅 片、玻璃等核心环节的价格有所上涨，叠加行业供给侧边际改 善，多重积极因素共振下，光伏板块有望迎来修复行情。 甘 肃、山西、黑龙江三省出台"136 号文"细则，内蒙古 全 面入市完成首次结算，新能源电价改革持续推进 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 小鹏人形机器人研发突破并为 26 年量产做准备 随着国内外企业布局加速&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产 落地时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国 产替代需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有 望深度受益。重点看好国产机器人/机器狗有望加速放量带动的 产业链需求。 2.新能源汽车 太蓝新能源全固态电池产能落地湖北 我们认为，电池技术的升级迭代始终 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guodian Power and a "Hold" rating for Longyuan Power and Chuanwei Energy, with expected EPS for 2025E at 0.42, 0.79, and 1.05 respectively [1][6]. Core Views - The report highlights a 4.4% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption in May 2025, with total consumption reaching 809.6 billion kWh [3][33]. - The report notes that the public utility sector index has seen a slight increase of 0.09% during the week of June 23-29, 2025, ranking 28th among 31 sectors [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new energy policies, which are expected to stabilize expected returns and improve existing projects, while also increasing the scale of new projects [6][38]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The public utility sector index PE (TTM) is at 17.04, slightly down from 17.09 the previous week, and down from 18.16 a year ago [1][20]. - The sector's PB remains stable at 1.71, unchanged from the previous week and down from 1.89 a year ago [1][23]. - The report indicates that the sector's performance is lagging behind major indices, with a 1.82 percentage point deficit compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][9]. Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration reported a total installed power generation capacity of 3.61 billion kW by the end of May 2025, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase [33][34]. - The report details that the average utilization hours for power generation equipment have decreased by 132 hours compared to the previous year [34]. - New pricing mechanisms for electricity in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are introduced, with competitive bidding ranges set for new projects [35][38]. Key Data Tracking - As of June 30, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) is reported at 615 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0.82% [40]. - The report tracks green certificate trading, with a total of 88.16 and 82.35 thousand transactions for wind and solar power respectively during the week of June 23-29, 2025 [41][44]. - The report also notes the CEA trading volumes for the week, with a total of 138.6 thousand tons traded on June 27, 2025, at an average price of 74.96 RMB/ton [46][48].

Group 1: ETF Performance and Liquidity - The New Energy ETF has a turnover rate of 1.64% with a transaction volume of 14.5887 million yuan as of June 27 [3] - Over the past year, the average daily transaction volume of the New Energy ETF is 35.6371 million yuan, with a recent weekly scale increase of 1.9363 million yuan [3] - The net value of the New Energy ETF has increased by 8.10% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 25.07% and the longest consecutive monthly increase being 2 months [3] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The valuation of the index tracked by the New Energy ETF, the CSI New Energy Index, is at a historical low, with the latest price-to-book ratio (PB) at 2.05 times, which is lower than 86.85% of the time over the past five years [3] Group 3: Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (宁德时代) with a rise of 0.26% [5] - Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (阳光电源) with an increase of 3.62% [5] - Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (隆基绿能) with a rise of 2.68% [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Index account for 44.89% of the index, including major players like Ningde Times and Sungrow [6] Group 4: Market Developments - The electricity spot market trial in Henan province is underway from June 19 to June 27, aiming to optimize resource allocation and improve price connections between long-term and spot electricity markets [5] - Xinjiang's new energy electricity price market reform is expected to lead to a lower price floor for incremental projects, with a high probability of approaching 0.150 yuan per kilowatt-hour [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the photovoltaic industry is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of improved fundamentals reflected in the recent performance of related stocks and ETFs [1][2] - The photovoltaic ETF fund (159863.SZ) increased by 1.37%, while the associated photovoltaic industry index (931151.CSI) rose by 1.89%, with major constituent stocks like Sungrow Power (up 6.51%) and TCL Technology (up 2.58%) showing significant gains [1] - Citic Construction Investment Securities reports that the bottom of the photovoltaic industry's financial performance has been reached, with reduced risks of further profit deterioration, despite a decline in expansion willingness due to low profitability [1] Group 2 - Financial research from Caixin Securities highlights that the photovoltaic industry is poised for digital and intelligent transformation driven by the construction of new power systems, with market-oriented pricing reforms supporting profitability [2] - The report notes a significant profit increase in upstream materials like membrane materials (+4048.26%), while other segments like soda ash (-71.27%) are under pressure due to a temporary slowdown in photovoltaic investments, indicating a divergence in the industry's performance [2] - The need to monitor the impact of policy implementation and technological advancements on the downstream photovoltaic sector is emphasized [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the energy storage industry, highlighting the performance and strategies of key companies in response to market changes and regulatory impacts, particularly focusing on the upcoming "Document 136" and its implications for the sector [2][17][18]. Company Performance and Strategies - **Trina Solar**: Aims for a storage shipment target of 8-10 GWh in 2025, with a 2024 shipment of 4.3 GWh, indicating a focus on overseas markets, especially Europe, and a significant increase in orders [2][3]. - **Canadian Solar**: Reported a Q1 storage shipment of 0.79 GWh, with a full-year target of 6.5 GWh, reflecting over 500% year-on-year growth. Despite challenges from U.S. tariffs, the company maintained profitability with a net profit of 87.3 million yuan in Q1 [4]. - **Hibos Technology**: Achieved nearly 3 GWh in sales in Q1 2025, with a focus on expanding overseas projects in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia. The company aims for overseas revenue to match domestic levels within 3-5 years [5]. - **Southern Power Grid Technology**: Reported over 1 billion yuan in storage revenue in Q1, despite a 37.5% year-on-year decline due to project timelines. The company has a robust order backlog of approximately 9.5 billion yuan [6][7]. Market Trends and Regulatory Impact - The recent large-scale power outages in Southern Europe have increased the demand for energy storage solutions, emphasizing their importance in stabilizing power systems during extreme weather events [9]. - Companies are adapting to U.S. tariff barriers by exploring non-U.S. markets and enhancing supply chain flexibility. Trina Solar and Canadian Solar are both actively assessing the impact of tariffs on their operations and adjusting strategies accordingly [10][13][14]. - The implementation of "Document 136" is expected to disrupt the storage market in the short term by removing mandatory storage requirements, but it may lead to long-term growth and a more competitive landscape, favoring companies with technological and cost advantages [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "136 Document" is expected to lead to a market-oriented pricing mechanism for renewable energy, increasing uncertainty in electricity prices and potentially reducing project profitability, which may result in a decline in installed capacity in the renewable energy sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact of the "136 Document" - The "136 Document" aims to transition renewable energy pricing to a fully market-based system, moving away from fixed prices and subsidies [2][7]. - The document introduces a new pricing mechanism that adjusts the mechanism electricity quantity and price based on market conditions, leading to increased uncertainty for renewable energy developers [2][6]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a significant drop in installed capacity if project returns fall below acceptable levels, with some estimates suggesting returns could drop from 8% to as low as 3% [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Response and Strategy - Renewable energy companies are advised to enhance project management and operational strategies to adapt to the new market conditions, focusing on site selection, design, and diversifying revenue streams through green certificates and direct supply of green electricity [1][5][9]. - Companies are expected to optimize their investment decision models to account for the new pricing mechanisms and market dynamics, emphasizing cost control and risk management [5][6][9]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards a more sophisticated approach to project development and operation, with a focus on maximizing efficiency and minimizing costs [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The transition to market-based pricing is anticipated to create a more competitive environment, with companies needing to adapt to fluctuating electricity prices and varying demand [6][10]. - The role of virtual power plants and new energy storage solutions is expected to grow, providing opportunities for companies to optimize resource allocation and enhance profitability [11]. - The establishment of a robust trading mechanism for green electricity and carbon markets is crucial for companies to mitigate the impact of declining electricity prices and ensure sustainable growth [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the photovoltaic industry is at a fundamental and valuation bottom, awaiting price catalysts. It notes that domestic installations are expected to exceed expectations, particularly in non-European and American markets, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [10][17] - The report emphasizes that the current period presents a prime opportunity for investment, driven by improving fundamentals and favorable policy expectations [14][15] Summary by Sections Market Review - The photovoltaic sector experienced weak performance in February due to seasonal factors, but March is expected to see a rebound in production and demand, particularly driven by domestic pre-installation policies and improving overseas demand [10][16] - The report anticipates a comprehensive price increase across the industry chain due to rising production and demand [10] Demand Tracking - Domestic photovoltaic installations are projected to reach 278 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28%. The report notes that ground-mounted and commercial installations are expected to see significant growth, while household installations may decline due to market policy uncertainties [20][24] - The report forecasts that domestic installations will remain high in 2025, supported by policy, demand, and technological advancements [25] Supply and Production - The report indicates that production in February was weak but is expected to improve in March, with significant increases in component production anticipated [68][72] - It notes that silicon material prices have remained stable, while G12R battery prices are experiencing upward pressure due to supply-demand imbalances [73][79] Price and Profitability - The report highlights that G12R battery prices are rising, and the trend of increasing prices for distributed components is becoming established [79][83] - It mentions that the overall pricing environment is improving, with expectations of profitability recovery across the supply chain [16][73]