提 要：世界经济论坛（WEF）和瑞士前沿出版社（Frontiers）发布的 《2025年十大新兴技术报告》探讨了 如何通过战略远见识别并评估具有深远变革潜力的前沿技术，以应对全球挑战并塑造可持续的未来。报告详 细阐述了2025年入选的十大新兴技术。报告强调，这些技术的成熟与广泛应用不仅依赖技术突破，更需要构 建完善的生态系统，协调社会接受度、技术能力、环境可持续性、经济可行性和监管框架。报告识别前沿技 术的"微弱信号"并预见其"社会变革"的潜力价值，目标在于搭建科学潜力与实际应用之间的桥梁，激发跨学 科合作与前瞻性决策，共同塑造更具韧性、包容性与可持续性的未来。 关键词：战略远见；新兴技术；技术融合；可持续转型；系统变革 一、具有深远变革潜力的前沿技术 每年，世界各地研究实验室都会涌现出卓越的创新成果，其中许多蕴含着巨大的潜力，然而能成功实现从科学发 现到实际应用这一关键跨越的却寥寥无几。13年来，世界经济论坛（World Economic Forum，WEF）的《十大 新兴技术报告》（Top 10 Emerging Technologies report）一直致力于改变这一现状，重点关注那些不仅有潜力 跨越 ...

Core Insights - NuScale Power Corporation has experienced a stock price surge of approximately 200% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16% increase, indicating growing investor confidence in the company within the nuclear energy sector driven by rising electricity demands and global electrification trends [2][3] Company Overview - NuScale is a leader in small modular reactors (SMRs), offering factory-manufactured, safer alternatives to traditional nuclear power plants, and holds the only U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-certified SMR design, benefiting from strategic support from its majority owner, Fluor Corporation [3] - The company's stock momentum is supported by regulatory achievements, project advancements, and favorable macroeconomic conditions [3] Market Dynamics - Electricity demand in the U.S. is increasing due to data centers and electric vehicles, with nuclear energy being recognized as a reliable, carbon-free alternative to fossil fuels [5] - NuScale is set to deliver six SMRs to Romania's RoPower, establishing a 462-megawatt nuclear facility, with significant regulatory progress marked by obtaining NRC Standard Design Approval for its upgraded SMR design in Q2 2025 [5] Strategic Developments - A historic agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) in August 2025 marks the largest SMR power commitment in U.S. history, positioning NuScale as a key supplier for domestic nuclear infrastructure [6] - Bipartisan support for nuclear energy and executive orders aimed at revitalizing the sector have further solidified NuScale's position, especially as energy needs grow to support AI and advanced technologies [6] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, NuScale reported revenue of $8.1 million, a significant increase from $1.0 million the previous year, reflecting progress in early-stage commercialization efforts [7] - The company recorded a net loss of $0.13 per share, slightly larger than the $0.12 predicted by analysts, while maintaining strong cash reserves of $489.9 million as of June 30, 2025, providing a buffer for operations and strategic initiatives [8]

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector has faced challenges this year, but nuclear energy has emerged as a strong performer, driven by increasing energy demand from AI data centers and bipartisan support for nuclear power [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Cameco, the largest publicly traded uranium miner, has seen its stock rise nearly 45% this year [1] - NuScale, a producer of small modular reactors (SMRs), has experienced over a 110% increase in stock value [1] - Oklo, a newcomer in the nuclear sector, has had an impressive stock appreciation of 237% since the beginning of the year [2] Group 2: Regulatory and Operational Aspects - Oklo is expected to remain pre-revenue until late 2027 or early 2028 when its commercial Aurora reactor is projected to go online [2][3] - The company faces potential delays due to the combined license application and Nuclear Regulatory Commission review process [3] Group 3: Key Personnel and Institutional Support - Sam Altman, known for his role as CEO of OpenAI, is a significant figure associated with Oklo, having been involved since his time at Y Combinator [4][6] - Oklo has 85.03% institutional ownership, with institutional buyers significantly outnumbering sellers over the past year, resulting in $840.54 million in inflows [8] Group 4: Business Model and Client Agreements - Oklo plans to enter long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) rather than selling its SMRs directly to clients [9] - The company has secured a PPA with Switch for 12 GW of Aurora energy through 2044, marking one of the largest corporate clean energy deals [10] - Additional agreements include a non-binding agreement with Equinix for 500 MW and a letter of intent from Wyoming Hyperscale for 11 MW [11] Group 5: Strategic Partnerships and Future Prospects - Oklo has launched a partnership with Liberty Energy to accelerate integrated power solutions for high-demand customers [12] - The company has agreements in its pipeline for 14 GW of energy, sufficient to power between 10.5 million and 14 million homes [12]

Core Viewpoint - The revival of nuclear energy in the U.S. is driven by both policy support and market demand, indicating a significant shift in the energy landscape [4][5]. Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities in Nuclear Energy - Large new nuclear projects face challenges such as long construction periods and cost overruns, which have hindered capacity growth in the past [3][6]. - The rapid advancement of nuclear unit life extension and restart projects, along with the promising development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), is seen as a key direction to overcome growth bottlenecks [3][6][7]. - SMRs offer advantages like shorter construction times and lower initial costs, making them suitable for diverse and decentralized power needs [6][7]. Group 2: Policy and Market Drivers - U.S. federal and state governments are increasing support for nuclear energy through tax incentives, subsidies, and streamlined approval processes, providing certainty for the industry [5][6]. - The growing demand for stable, efficient, and low-carbon power from data centers, driven by the rise of AI and cloud computing, is creating new growth opportunities for nuclear energy [5][6]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Technological Innovation - By 2050, U.S. nuclear capacity is projected to reach 150 GW, significantly higher than current levels, driven by new projects, life extensions, and the scaling of SMRs [7]. - The U.S. is exploring diverse nuclear energy pathways, including the commercialization of SMRs and advancements in fourth-generation nuclear technology and nuclear fusion [7]. - The entry of major tech companies into nuclear fusion research indicates strong capital expectations for breakthroughs in nuclear technology, which could accelerate growth in the sector [7]. Group 4: Cost Advantages of Nuclear Energy - While natural gas plants have shorter construction times and lower initial costs, they are heavily impacted by fuel price volatility and have higher carbon emissions compared to nuclear energy [8]. - Once initial investments are recouped, nuclear energy has low marginal generation costs and stable fuel costs, highlighting its cost advantages and low-carbon attributes over the lifecycle [8].

Core Insights - The revival of nuclear energy in the U.S. is becoming clearer, reshaping the energy structure and potentially restructuring the global nuclear industry chain [1][2] - The growth in nuclear capacity is expected to reach 150 GW by 2050, driven by policy support, market demand, and technological advancements [4] Group 1: Policy and Market Drivers - The revival of U.S. nuclear energy is supported by federal and state government policies, including tax incentives, subsidies, and streamlined approval processes [2] - The increasing demand for stable, efficient, and low-carbon energy from data centers, driven by the growth of AI and cloud computing, is creating new opportunities for nuclear energy [2] Group 2: Challenges in Large Projects - Large nuclear projects face challenges such as long construction periods and cost overruns, often taking over 10 years to complete [3] - Despite these challenges, there is rapid progress in extending the life of existing nuclear units and restarting projects, with small modular reactors (SMRs) seen as a key solution to growth bottlenecks [3] Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Technological Innovation - The projected increase in nuclear capacity to 150 GW by 2050 will rely on the longevity of existing units, the scaling of SMRs, and efficiency improvements from technological advancements [4] - The exploration of diverse nuclear energy paths, including fourth-generation nuclear technology and nuclear fusion, indicates a strong interest in technological breakthroughs [4] Group 4: Cost Comparison with Natural Gas - Nuclear energy has a low marginal cost of electricity generation once initial investments are recovered, with fuel costs being a small portion of total operating costs [5] - In contrast, natural gas plants have shorter construction cycles and lower initial costs but are heavily impacted by fuel price volatility and have higher carbon emissions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank is lifting its decades-long ban on nuclear energy financing to accelerate the development of low-emission technologies in response to rising electricity demands in developing countries [1][3]. Group 1: World Bank's Policy Shift - The World Bank will collaborate with the International Atomic Energy Agency to "re-enter the nuclear energy field" and support efforts to extend the lifespan of existing nuclear reactors and upgrade related infrastructure [1][3]. - The World Bank's President, Ajay Banga, has requested the board to change the long-standing policy prohibiting funding for nuclear energy projects, viewing this technology as a green energy option for impoverished nations [3]. - The World Bank's energy investment in nuclear energy is currently non-existent, and Banga emphasizes the need for significant investment increases to meet the doubling electricity demand, from $280 billion to $630 billion annually [3][4]. Group 2: Global Trends in Nuclear Energy - The shift in the U.S. and European attitudes towards nuclear energy is influencing the World Bank's decision, with the U.S. government under Trump advocating for nuclear power development [5][6]. - Germany's new government has indicated a willingness to support nuclear energy, marking a significant policy shift from previous administrations [5][6]. - A recent poll in Germany shows that 55% of the population supports nuclear energy, reflecting a growing acceptance of nuclear power amid energy crises [6][7]. Group 3: Investment and Future Outlook - The private sector's investment is deemed crucial, and the World Bank will support various energy projects, including solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, and natural gas, as long as they do not restrict renewable energy [4]. - The European Investment Bank has also opened financing for nuclear projects, indicating a broader trend among multilateral lending institutions to reconsider nuclear energy [7]. - Despite the renewed interest, projections suggest that decommissioning plans may offset new capacity additions in Europe, with an expected 5% decrease in nuclear capacity by 2040 compared to 2010 [7].

Core Insights - Rolls-Royce will construct the UK's first small modular reactors (SMRs) with support from the UK government, highlighting the country's commitment to nuclear energy [1] - This announcement follows a two-year selection process and coincides with the UK's pledge to invest £14.2 billion (approximately $19.2 billion) in the construction of the large Sizewell C nuclear power station in eastern England [1]