Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant recovery in new and second-hand housing transactions in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen following recent policy adjustments [6][8]. - The report notes that the Shanghai property tax policy has been optimized, with first-time homebuyers exempt from property tax and second-home buyers benefiting from a threshold on taxable area [5]. - The report anticipates a new round of policy announcements by the end of September, which could further influence the real estate market [8]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - Over the past month, the real estate sector has shown a relative return of -1% compared to the CSI 300 index, while absolute returns were 7% [4]. - In the last 12 months, the absolute return for the real estate sector was 41% [4]. Transaction Data - In Beijing, the average daily transaction for second-hand homes increased by 58% year-on-year, while new homes saw an 18% increase [6]. - Shanghai experienced a 72% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions and an 86% increase in new home transactions [6]. - Shenzhen reported a 121% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions and a 23% increase in new home transactions [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and land reserves in core cities, such as Poly Developments [8]. - It also recommends monitoring leading intermediary firms that may benefit from an increase in second-hand home transactions, such as Wo Ai Wo Jia [8].

Group 1 - The total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies in the first eight months of 2025 was 23,270.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, consistent with the decline observed in the first seven months [1] - The top five companies by sales in the first eight months were Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, and China Merchants Shekou, with sales amounts of 1,812 billion yuan, 1,563 billion yuan, 1,503 billion yuan, 1,425 billion yuan, and 1,240.5 billion yuan respectively [1] - The sales ranking among the top 20 companies saw changes only for China State Construction's subsidiaries, with China State Construction Yipin moving up to 15th place with sales of 363.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - August is typically a slow season for real estate sales, with a reported 30% decrease in supply compared to the previous month, and transaction volumes in 30 monitored cities dropping to 7.53 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 17% [4] - In August, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 2,070.4 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%, although the year-on-year decline narrowed by 6.7 percentage points compared to July [4] - Despite the overall decline, 33% of the top 100 companies reported month-on-month growth in August, with 21 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 30% [4] Group 3 - In first-tier cities, transaction volumes decreased significantly in August, with a total of 1.25 million square meters sold, representing a month-on-month decline of 20% and a year-on-year decline of 26% [5] - Second and third-tier cities showed significant internal differentiation, with total transactions of 6.28 million square meters in August, a month-on-month decrease of 11% and a year-on-year decrease of 16% [5] - Looking ahead to September, the industry anticipates a potential market recovery due to policy releases, with expectations for increased sales as companies ramp up their marketing efforts [5]

Group 1 - The real estate market in first-tier cities serves as a "weather vane" for the overall market [1] - Beijing has introduced a series of measures to relax housing purchase restrictions, attracting widespread attention [2] - The Shenzhen second-hand housing market has shown a good start since August, with a slight increase in transaction volume [3] Group 2 - Data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency indicates that the transaction volume of second-hand homes recorded 1,216 units from August 4 to August 10, a week-on-week increase of 2.7% [3] - The transaction rate for second-hand residential viewings in Shenzhen has risen to 4.22% as of August 11, up 0.26 percentage points from July, indicating a quicker pace of "bottom-fishing" by buyers [5] - Despite the positive data, market practitioners express mixed feelings, noting that the current second-hand market is still under pressure, with most buyers awaiting new policies [5] Group 3 - New projects are expected to flood the market in Bao'an and Longhua districts in August, with local developers hoping to capitalize on potential policy changes [7] - The housing market has shown signs of decline since July, traditionally a slow season, with lower-than-expected policy implementation [7] - The expectation is that second-hand housing transactions will remain high due to favorable loan conditions and a large demand from first-time buyers [7] Group 4 - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is anticipated to boost market activity, with increased interest from buyers following new policies in Beijing [9] - The new policies are expected to enhance market expectations and accelerate the release of housing demand, focusing on domestic needs rather than opening up to external demand [9] - Analysts suggest that the pace of further policy relaxation in first-tier cities may accelerate, reflecting a more cautious approach to market regulation [9]

Group 1 - The real estate market in first-tier cities serves as a "barometer" for the overall market [1] - Beijing has introduced a series of measures to relax housing purchase restrictions, attracting widespread attention [2] - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has shown a good start since August, with a slight increase in transaction volume [3] Group 2 - Data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency indicates that the transaction volume of second-hand homes recorded 1,216 units from August 4 to August 10, a 2.7% increase compared to the previous week [3] - The viewing and transaction rate for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen has risen to 4.22% as of August 11, up 0.26 percentage points from July, indicating a growing interest from buyers [5] - Despite the positive data, market practitioners express mixed feelings, noting that the market is still under pressure, with only certain popular properties maintaining transaction volume [5] Group 3 - New property launches are expected in Bao'an and Longhua districts in August, with local developers preparing to release new inventory in anticipation of potential policy changes [6] - The traditional off-peak season for the real estate market in July has led to a downward trend, with lower-than-expected policy implementation [6] - The demand for second-hand housing is expected to remain high due to favorable loan conditions and a large number of affordable properties available [6] Group 4 - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is anticipated to boost market activity, with increased enthusiasm from buyers as the weather improves [7] - The new policies from Beijing are seen as a significant signal, likely to enhance market expectations and accelerate housing demand release [9] - The overall policy approach in first-tier cities remains conservative, but there is potential for a faster pace of further relaxations in the future [9]

Group 1 - First-tier cities serve as a "barometer" for the real estate market [1] - Beijing has introduced a series of measures to relax housing purchase restrictions, attracting widespread attention [2] - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has shown a good start since August, with a slight increase in transaction volume [3] Group 2 - Data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency indicates a 2.7% week-on-week increase in second-hand housing transactions, with 1,216 units recorded from August 4 to August 10 [3] - The transaction rate for second-hand residential viewings in Shenzhen has risen to 4.22%, up 0.26 percentage points from July, indicating a rush among buyers to "bottom out" [5] - The average daily signing volume in early August increased by 6.4% compared to July and by 32.5% year-on-year [5] Group 3 - Market sentiment among real estate practitioners varies, with many expecting more policy optimizations to boost market confidence [5] - The second-hand housing market is currently characterized by "price for volume," with only a few popular properties maintaining transaction momentum [5] - New projects are expected to flood the market in areas like Bao'an and Longhua, as developers anticipate potential policy changes [5] Group 4 - The traditional off-peak season for the real estate market is July, and since June, the lack of new policies has led to a downward trend [6] - The increase in second-hand housing listings and significant price drops suggest a favorable environment for first-time buyers [6] - The new housing market is expected to show a pattern of "individual star projects being hot, while most remain flat," indicating competitive pressure [6] Group 5 - The "golden September and silver October" period is approaching, raising expectations in the industry [7] - Improved weather and the end of summer vacation have increased buyer enthusiasm for viewings and transactions [8] - The new policies in Beijing are seen as a significant signal, likely to boost market expectations and accelerate housing demand release [8]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in first-tier cities serves as a "barometer" for the overall market trends [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Beijing has introduced a series of measures to relax housing purchase restrictions, attracting widespread attention [2] - Despite July and August being traditional off-seasons for the real estate market, Shenzhen's second-hand housing market has shown a positive start in August, with a recorded transaction volume of 1,216 units from August 4 to August 10, reflecting a 2.7% month-on-month increase [4] - The transaction rate for second-hand residential viewings in Shenzhen has reached 4.22% as of August 11, up 0.26 percentage points from July, indicating an acceleration in buyer activity [6] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market practitioners express differing sentiments, with many hoping for more policy optimizations to boost market confidence [2][6] - The second-hand housing market is currently characterized by "price for volume" dynamics, with only a few popular properties maintaining transaction heat, while others face pressure [6][7] - The expectation for new housing policies is high, as industry experts believe that the recent policy changes in Beijing could stimulate market demand and improve buyer sentiment [9][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period is anticipated to bring increased buyer interest, especially as the weather improves and the summer vacation ends [10] - Analysts predict that the second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen will remain high due to favorable loan conditions and a large demand from first-time buyers [7][10] - The new housing market is expected to show a pattern of "star projects being hot, while most projects remain flat," indicating significant competition among new developments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is entering a critical phase with new policies aimed at benefiting homebuyers, including those with basic needs and those looking to upgrade their living conditions [1][9]. Policy Changes - Since early 2025, there has been a clear trend of loosening demand-side policies in the real estate sector, with expectations for further strengthening in August [3]. - Restrictions on purchasing, selling, and pricing are gradually being relaxed, with many cities easing eligibility criteria for out-of-town buyers [3]. - Current commercial loan rates for first-time homebuyers have dropped to approximately 3.05%, with over five-year provident fund loan rates as low as 2.85% [3]. - Predictions indicate that by the end of 2025, mortgage rates could further decrease to around 2.5%, significantly reducing total interest and monthly payments for borrowers [3]. Financial Incentives - Major adjustments in down payment ratios and the introduction of various tax reductions, such as lower deed tax rates and increased thresholds for personal income tax exemptions, are expected to lower transaction costs for homebuyers [3]. - Over 50 cities have introduced home purchase subsidies, including cash rebates and tax refunds, which will greatly benefit first-time buyers [3]. Quality Housing Initiatives - The government aims to enhance housing quality by promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, transitioning from merely providing housing to improving living standards [5]. - New regulations set a minimum height for new residential buildings and require elevators in multi-story buildings, addressing the needs of an aging population [5]. Urban Renewal Policies - Recent initiatives, such as the issuance of consumption vouchers for homebuyers participating in urban renewal projects, aim to stimulate the market by facilitating property exchanges [7]. - The "old for new" policy is designed to alleviate barriers for families looking to improve their living conditions, thereby enhancing market liquidity [7]. - This policy is expected to accelerate inventory reduction, optimize housing supply structures, and boost market confidence [7]. Market Outlook - The new round of policies is comprehensive, targeting various aspects of the real estate market, which is anticipated to lead to a more stable development and provide homebuyers with better options [9].

Core Viewpoint - The current state of China's real estate market in 2025 shows that despite relaxed policies and attractive mortgage rates, housing prices are not increasing as expected, with significant declines in some areas [1][3]. Policy Changes - As of 2025, 132 cities have relaxed housing policies, with down payments reduced to 15% and first-home mortgage rates as low as 3.25% [3]. - In Hefei, the complete removal of purchase restrictions resulted in only a 7% increase in residential transactions compared to April, significantly lower than the 30% increase seen in 2020 [3]. Market Performance - A project launched in 2023 with 1,200 units sold only 312 units over two years, resulting in a sales rate of less than 26% [5]. - Nationwide, there is a housing inventory of 782 million square meters, which, at the current sales pace, would take 14 months to sell out, with inventory increasing by 5.2% monthly [5]. Price Disparities - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, slight price increases were observed, with Dongcheng and Huangpu districts seeing increases of 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, due to limited new supply [7]. - In contrast, cities like Dongguan and Changzhou experienced significant price drops, with new home prices falling by 18.3% compared to their peak in 2023 [7]. Buyer Sentiment - First-time homebuyers and investors have differing perspectives, with first-time buyers more concerned about price guarantees and developers' reliability [9]. - Data indicates that the average time to resell a property has increased to 6.8 years in 2025, compared to 3.2 years in 2019, making short-term profit from property sales unlikely [9]. Developer Trust Issues - Ongoing issues with delayed property deliveries have led to buyer skepticism, with 23 cities still facing unresolved overdue delivery projects as of June 2025 [11]. - This lack of trust in developers has diminished the effectiveness of policy measures, with transaction volume increases significantly lower in 2025 compared to 2020 [11]. Future Outlook - Core cities may see slight price increases, while third and fourth-tier cities are likely to experience further declines [13]. - The era of significant wealth accumulation through real estate investment may be over, although first-time buyers may benefit from more negotiating power [13].