稳定是如今中国股市的底色 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——中国权益策略周报 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | | | 苏徽(分析师) | | | 021-38676434 | | | suhui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 坚定信心，持股过节 2026.02.08 转型牛：更高、更稳、更长 2026.01.18 一年之计在于春 2026.01.04 跨越，远望又新峰 2025.12.28 跨 ...

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/杨本鸿/陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/罗池婧 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点 ： 板块性价比提升，算力产业持续景气 周观点 板块性价比提升，算力产业持续景气 板块性价比提升，两会政策加持可期。 本周板块受 "大模型吞噬应用"逻辑等因素压制，市场担忧软件被大模型替代。我们认为具备高数据壁垒、深场景护城河的软件公司将 更加稀缺，大模型与软件的竞合仍需观察。整体板块对逻辑演绎相对充分，位置处于底部，性价比提升。下周，全国两会即将召开，政策加持可期，可加仓具备深护城河的底 部龙头。 2、深度跟 踪 ：算力：GTC有望引领产品迭代，模型出海带来新机会 国产模型出海，算力产业链持续景气。 本周国产大模型火爆全球，智谱发布算力伙伴计划，国产大模型 Token 调用量快速增长，有望充分拉动对国产算力各环节需求。海外 英伟达公布最新财年报告， 2026 年营收突破 2000 亿美金，数据中心业务同比增长 75% ， 2027Q1 营收指引 780 亿美金，充分印证算力产业高景气，建议持续把握算力链投 资机会。 本文第二章， 基于即将举办的 GTC大会对算力产业进行了重点跟 ...

近期国产大模型迎来重要突破，为资本市场注入信心。据统计，2026年2月9日-15日这周，中国模型以 4.12万亿Token的调用量，首次超过同期美国模型的2.94万亿Token。16日-22日这周，中国模型的周调用 量进一步冲高至5.16万亿Token，三周大涨127%。与此同时，全球调用量排名前五的模型中，中国模型 占据四席，凭借快速迭代与成本优势，国产模型或正加速抢占全球市场份额。 近期国产大模型迎来重要突破，为资本市场注入信心。据统计，2026年2月9日-15日这周，中国模型以 4.12万亿Token的调用量，首次超过同期美国模型的2.94万亿Token。16日-22日这周，中国模型的周调用 量进一步冲高至5.16万亿Token，三周大涨127%。与此同时，全球调用量排名前五的模型中，中国模型 占据四席，凭借快速迭代与成本优势，国产模型或正加速抢占全球市场份额。 受此利好催化，集结一众大模型厂商的港股科技板块今日早盘迎来回暖反弹。在此之前，该板块持续回 调，带动恒生科技指数最新市盈率回落至21.09倍，处于近5年16.92%的较低历史分位，为资金布局提供 了窗口。Wind数据显示，恒生科技ETF（513 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, raising its long-term forecast to $4,500 per ounce [1] - UBS expects gold prices to touch $6,200 per ounce in the coming months, driven by persistent geopolitical risks and continued support from the Federal Reserve's easing policies [1] Group 2: Copper Price Outlook - Citigroup holds a bullish outlook on copper prices, forecasting a rise to $14,000 per ton in the next three months, citing strong demand from China and limited downside risks [1] - The bank maintains a long-term average copper price forecast of $13,000 per ton for 2026, indicating a balanced global copper market [1] Group 3: AI Impact on GDP - Goldman Sachs reports that AI contributed nearly zero to the U.S. GDP last year, as investments were offset by imports of chips and hardware [2] - A survey of executives revealed that while 70% of companies are actively using AI, about 80% believe it has not impacted employment or productivity [2] Group 4: S&P 500 Index Forecast - A Reuters survey indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to rise nearly 10% to around 7,500 points by the end of 2026, supported by strong earnings and stable economic growth [3] - Despite a resilient market, risks remain from inflation trends, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - Societe Generale highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are supporting the safe-haven demand for bonds, leading to a dovish shift in market expectations for central bank interest rate paths [4] Group 6: UK Interest Rate Expectations - ING analysts suggest that the British pound may decline if the Bank of England's Governor hints at a potential rate cut in March [5][6] Group 7: Canadian Interest Rate Outlook - Scotiabank anticipates that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged until the outcome of the USMCA negotiations becomes clearer [7] Group 8: Domestic AI Developments - CITIC Securities reports a surge in the usage of domestic AI models, indicating a significant expansion in AI inference demand and investment opportunities in domestic computing power [8] Group 9: Electronic Fabric Demand Cycle - CITIC Securities notes that the current electronic fabric demand cycle, driven by AI, may be more intense than previous storage cycles, with a projected 100% increase in demand for specialty fabrics by 2026 [9] Group 10: AI Industry Chain Outlook - CITIC JianTou expresses optimism about the AI industry chain, highlighting strong demand for computing power and the transition of large models towards monetization [10] Group 11: AIDC Growth and Equipment Demand - CITIC JianTou indicates that the AIDC construction phase will lead to significant demand for power capacity and related equipment, with a projected CAGR of 55% from 2025 to 2028 [11] Group 12: AIDC Sector Performance - Founder Securities anticipates continued high growth in the AIDC sector, driven by increased capital expenditures from leading internet companies and a growing demand for power equipment in the U.S. [12] Group 13: New Energy Vehicle Market Recovery - Galaxy Securities predicts a recovery in the automotive market post-Spring Festival, with several flagship new energy vehicle models set to launch, potentially boosting market demand [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in China, with a significant increase in charging demand and infrastructure development to support this trend [1][2] - The National Grid predicts that the peak daily charging volume for EVs will exceed 34 million kilowatt-hours, representing a 17% year-on-year increase [1] - Nearly one in two new cars sold in China is an electric vehicle, indicating a robust market for EVs and related services [1] Group 2 - The diverse energy replenishment methods for EVs, such as supercharging, fast charging, and battery swapping, are flourishing, with NIO's battery swap service surpassing 100 million instances and over 3,700 battery swap stations established nationwide [2] - The integration of infrastructure, including power grids, highways, and communication systems, is facilitating collaboration across industries and regions, enhancing overall economic synergy [4][6] - The collaboration between NIO and the National Grid to explore vehicle-to-grid technology aims to alleviate grid pressure and improve energy utilization, transforming vehicles into energy nodes within smart cities [5] Group 3 - The fusion of technological and industrial innovation is accelerating, with advancements in AI and robotics leading to increased productivity and efficiency across various sectors [7] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 aims to achieve significant breakthroughs in quality improvement, highlighting the importance of leveraging large-scale markets, infrastructure support, and technological integration for high-quality development [7]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of innovation in driving high-quality development in China, highlighting that the country has become one of the fastest-growing economies in terms of innovation capability [2] - Various sectors, including high-end equipment manufacturing and environmental protection, are experiencing significant advancements due to technological innovations, such as the development of pneumatic switching valves for waste gas treatment [3][4] - The article showcases the efforts of researchers and engineers across different fields, including AI, precision bearings, and agricultural technology, who are working diligently to enhance product performance and efficiency [6][10][12] Group 2 - The development of AI models is focused on improving conversational capabilities, with teams working on multi-modal interactions to create more natural user experiences [7][14] - The design and production of precision bearings for large-scale astronomical instruments demonstrate the integration of advanced engineering techniques to meet high-performance standards [9][10] - Agricultural research is advancing with the introduction of technologies that enhance hybrid seed production, leading to increased yield and reduced costs [11][12]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a strong start in 2026, with eight companies completing their IPOs within just six trading days, including notable firms in the GPU, surgical robotics, and biotechnology sectors [2][3][5] - The initial public offerings (IPOs) have been well-received, with first-day price increases ranging from 8.44% to 109.09%, indicating strong market enthusiasm for sectors like large models, domestic chip alternatives, and surgical robotics [2][3][5] IPO Performance - MiniMax, a key player in the large model sector, achieved a remarkable first-day closing price increase of 109.09%, with a market capitalization reaching HKD 106.7 billion, and was oversubscribed by 1,836.17 times in public offerings [3][5] - Wallen Technology, the first GPU stock in Hong Kong, also performed impressively with a first-day increase of 75.82% [4] - The average first-day increase for the new batch of IPOs was 40.16%, with a cumulative average increase of nearly 62% since listing, reflecting strong market recognition of high-quality hard tech assets [5][6] Market Dynamics - The current IPO market in Hong Kong is characterized by a large backlog of over 300 companies waiting to list, indicating a robust supply pipeline [6] - In December 2025, 32 companies submitted IPO applications, and 26 companies have done so in January 2026 alone, showcasing sustained enthusiasm for new listings [6] Sector Trends - The successful performance of new IPOs has broken the previous trend of "hot IPOs followed by cold market performance," suggesting that the sectors these companies operate in are gaining market confidence [5][6] - Companies like MiniMax and Zhizhu have shown significant cumulative price increases since their IPOs, with MiniMax achieving a total increase of 141.21% and Zhizhu 79.35% [5][6] Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has emphasized the need for high-quality IPO submissions, responding to concerns about the quality of some recent applications [8] - This regulatory focus aims to shift the IPO market from quantity-driven to quality-driven, which may temporarily slow down the listing process for some companies [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to actively seize the spring market, with AI applications expected to enter a main upward trend [1][2] - The spring market is showing continuous development, with rising risk appetite and significant potential in the computer sector due to low institutional holdings and substantial industry changes [1] - Recommendations include increasing positions in core leaders in AI applications and domestic computing power, as well as focusing on key targets in cutting-edge technology fields such as commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, and digital currencies [1] Group 2 - AI applications are anticipated to experience a major upward trend, driven by positive industry developments and the entry of domestic large model manufacturers like Zhiyu and MiniMax into the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The market is closely watching the annual report expectations, with the potential for AI investments to shift from hardware to software, enhancing the upward potential of AI applications [2] - The outlook for the year suggests that AI applications will achieve more comprehensive and in-depth implementation, supported by continuous iterations in algorithms and computing power [2] Group 3 - The second chapter of the report focuses on the brain-computer interface industry, highlighting the imminent mass production of Neuralink and supportive domestic policies [3]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower on January 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.2% and 0.52% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.78 trillion yuan, with over 3,700 stocks rising, including 80 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1]. Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector saw a surge, with over 10 constituent stocks hitting the daily limit up. Notable performers included Luxin Venture Capital with 8 consecutive limit ups and Galaxy Electronics with 4 consecutive limit ups [2]. - The brain-computer interface concept also gained traction, with stocks like Innovation Medical, Pulite, and Nanjing Panda achieving 4 consecutive limit ups. The controllable nuclear fusion concept was active, with China First Heavy Industries, China National Machinery Industry Corporation, and China Nuclear Engineering Group achieving 2 consecutive limit ups [2]. Declining Sectors - The securities sector experienced continuous adjustments, with Huayin Securities hitting the limit down. Other securities firms like Huatai Securities, GF Securities, and others also saw significant declines [3]. - Other underperforming sectors included energy metals, insurance, and dairy industries [3]. Hong Kong Market - Major indices in the Hong Kong market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all dropping over 1% [3]. - Domestic large model company Zhipu Technology debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, initially rising by up to 10% before retreating to a 7.4% increase. The chip stock Tianzhixin performed even better, soaring over 31% at the opening and currently showing a 12.31% increase [4]. Commodity Market - Gold and silver prices fell across the board, with spot gold dropping below $4,450 per ounce and domestic commodity futures reflecting similar declines. SHFE silver fell over 3% [7]. - Specific price movements included London gold at $4,442.098 per ounce, down 0.32%, and SHFE gold at 999.78 yuan per gram, down 0.55% [8][9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices surged, approaching 150,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong demand in the market [10].

Group 1 - China's high-speed rail operating mileage has surpassed 50,000 kilometers, establishing the world's largest and most advanced high-speed rail network [1] - By 2025, China's grain production is expected to reach 1,429.75 billion jin, setting a new record [1] - Shandong's GDP is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2025, showcasing the province's economic strength [1] Group 2 - The new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating, emphasizing the importance of both immediate and long-term innovation efforts [2] - China's high-speed rail has evolved from non-existence to the world's most advanced level through consistent planning and execution from the "11th Five-Year Plan" to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - International media highlights that China's technological innovation benefits from a carefully designed long-term national strategy [2] Group 3 - China possesses all industrial categories recognized by the United Nations, with significant advantages in manufacturing scale and industrial ecosystem completeness [3] - The country leads the world in the number of relevant patents in humanoid robotics over the past five years, indicating a surge in intelligent manufacturing [3] - Key core technologies cannot be acquired through purchase or negotiation, necessitating a focus on independent innovation [3] Group 4 - Innovation thrives on collaboration, with significant projects requiring systematic thinking and regional cooperation [4] - The C919 aircraft project involved over 30,000 people from more than 1,000 research institutions, universities, and companies across 20 provinces [4] - The Beidou satellite navigation system achieved breakthroughs in over 160 key technologies, showcasing the effectiveness of coordinated national efforts [4] Group 5 - China's innovation index has entered the world's top ten for the first time, with four Chinese achievements listed among the top ten scientific breakthroughs for 2025 by *Science* magazine [5] - The term "Chinese innovation" has gained global recognition, reflecting the country's ambition to drive economic growth through innovative breakthroughs [5]