21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 北京报道 1月5日至6日，2026年中国人民银行工作会议在北京召开。会议总结 2025年工作，分析当前形势，研究中国人民银行"十五五"改革发展规划，部署2026年工作。 会议明确，2026年中国人民银行要重点抓好以下七项工作：一是持之以恒推进全面从严治党；二是继续 实施好适度宽松的货币政策；三是提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效；四是稳妥化解重点领域金融 风险；五是持续深化金融改革和对外开放；六是积极推动全球金融治理改革；七是进一步提升金融管理 和服务能力。 备受关注的是，在谈及如何"继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策"时，会议指出，把促进经济高质量发展、 物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充 裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应 量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 对此，远东资信首席宏观研究员张林解读称，本次央行工作会议提出的"把促进经济高质量发展、物价 合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，与中央经济工作会议中"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量"的表述 ...

关于人民币在2025年末的强势走势，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬称，主要受如下几方面因素支撑： 一是美元指数走弱；二是出口保持韧性；三是人民币资产吸引力提升；四是监管引导汇率升值见成效。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力来自美元环境的转变， 伴随美联储开启降息周期，市场预期美元长期走势将受进一步压制，为人民币提供了外部升值空间。中 长期来说，经济是汇率的基本盘，汇率走势在根本上取决于经济基本面。短期来看，汇率的影响因素则 比较多元，比如，经济增长、货币政策、金融市场、地缘政治、风险事件等。 新华财经北京1月5日电（马萌伟）人民币兑美元汇率在2025年末升破"7"整数关口，重新回到了"6"时 代。2026年第一个交易日（1月2日），离岸人民币兑美元延续了2025年以来的强势升值态势，逾两年半 来首次涨破6.97关口。5日亚洲交易时段尾盘，在岸人民币兑美元逼近6.98关口，最高升至6.9807；人民 币兑美元中间价升至2024年9月30日以来最高7.0230。 专家表示，短期内人民币汇率仍有一定升值空间，升值速率亦受到稳汇率政策力度等影响，人民币汇率 有望在7.0下方保持一段 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening US dollar index, although future movements in the RMB exchange rate remain uncertain due to multiple interwoven factors [1][2]. Group 1: External Environment - The upcoming transition in leadership at the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Powell's term ending next year, could signal changes in US monetary policy direction, impacting the RMB/USD exchange rate [1]. - The US is facing challenges in balancing inflation and employment, which may constrain the likelihood of significant interest rate cuts in the near future, with expectations of only two rate cuts next year [1]. - The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's foreign policy adds to market uncertainty, potentially affecting the foreign exchange market [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent significant decline in the US dollar index suggests a potential for future recovery, which could influence the RMB/USD exchange rate in the medium to long term [1]. - Currently, the interest rate differential between Chinese and US government bonds remains inverted by approximately 230 basis points, indicating a stronger incentive for capital to flow towards the US if the RMB appreciation trend slows [2]. - The People's Bank of China has emphasized the need to "prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations," indicating that both appreciation and depreciation risks are being monitored, and measures may be taken if the RMB appreciates too quickly [2]. Group 3: Expert Recommendations - Experts advise that enterprises and financial institutions should avoid blindly following market trends and should adopt a risk-neutral approach to manage exchange rate risks effectively [2].

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening US dollar index [1] - The offshore Renminbi to US dollar exchange rate has surpassed the 7.0 mark, indicating a significant shift in currency dynamics [1] - Experts suggest that the future trajectory of the Renminbi remains uncertain due to multiple interwoven factors, including the upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and the unpredictable nature of US foreign policy [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to face constraints on further interest rate cuts, with predictions of only two rate cuts in the coming year, which may limit the Renminbi's appreciation potential [2] - The current interest rate differential between Chinese and US government bonds remains significant, with a spread of approximately 230 basis points, influencing capital flows [2] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized the need to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, indicating potential measures to manage rapid appreciation [3]

跨年之际，离岸人民币对美元汇率迎来关键突破，于12月25日一度触及6.99附近，实现"破7"。 作为市场公认的汇率里程碑事件，此次"破7"是人民币对美元阶段性走强的缩影。近一段时间，在岸、 离岸汇率同步刷新阶段高点也引发市场对人民币是否步入升值新周期的热议，更牵动着有换汇需求的家 庭与企业。 此轮人民币汇率升值，与美联储政策调整、美元指数波动、国内政策预期修复等多重因素息息相关。 一位市场权威专家对第一财经表示，人民币汇率走势仍存在较大不确定性，企业和金融机构切忌盲目跟 风、赌汇率走势，坚持风险中性理念，做好汇率风险管理。 明年走势仍存在较大不确定性 近期，人民币汇率走强带动市场对2026年汇率升值形成了一定预期，但需要注意的是，2026年人民币汇 率走势将受到内外多重因素交织影响，仍存在诸多不确定、不稳定因素。 理解此轮人民币汇率阶段性升值的核心逻辑，才能对2026年的人民币汇率走向作出客观清晰的判断。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛对第一财经表示，推动近期人民币升值的短期因素较为明确：一方面， 美元走势呈现疲软态势，11月份美元指数曾升至100以上，随后持续回落并跌破98，美元走弱为人民币 升值提供了外部支 ...

2025.12. 29 本文字数：1556，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 跨年之际，离岸人民币对美元汇率迎来关键突破，于12月25日一度触及6.99附近，实现"破7"。 作为市场公认的汇率里程碑事件，此次"破7"是人民币对美元阶段性走强的缩影。近一段时间，在 岸、离岸汇率同步刷新阶段高点也引发市场对人民币是否步入升值新周期的热议，更牵动着有换汇需 求的家庭与企业。 此轮人民币汇率升值，与美联储政策调整、美元指数波动、国内政策预期修复等多重因素息息相关。 一位市场权威专家对第一财经表示，人民币汇率走势仍存在较大不确定性，企业和金融机构切忌盲目 跟风、赌汇率走势，坚持风险中性理念，做好汇率风险管理。 明年走势仍存在较大不确定性 近期，人民币汇率走强带动市场对2026年汇率升值形成了一定预期，但需要注意的是，2026年人民 币汇率走势将受到内外多重因素交织影响，仍存在诸多不确定、不稳定因素。 理解此轮人民币汇率阶段性升值的核心逻辑，才能对2026年的人民币汇率走向作出客观清晰的判 断。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛对第一财经表示，推动近期人民币升值的短期因素较为明确：一方 面，美元走势呈现疲软态势， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to continuously improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, highlighting the importance of market forces in determining exchange rates and maintaining flexibility [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China aims to create favorable conditions for the independent and effective implementation of monetary policy by enhancing the role of exchange rates as automatic stabilizers for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [1] - The article advocates for a scientific and robust monetary policy system that aligns with the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - The article stresses the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility and preventing excessive fluctuations to safeguard economic stability [1] - It calls for a bottom-line thinking approach and stronger expectation management to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and highlights the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility to support effective monetary policy implementation [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The People's Bank of China aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system alongside a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework [1] - The article advocates for the decisive role of the market in the exchange rate formation process, particularly for a large open economy like China [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - It is essential to maintain exchange rate flexibility to utilize it as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic adjustments and international balance of payments [1] - The article stresses the importance of bottom-line thinking and enhancing expectation management to prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and maintaining exchange rate flexibility to support effective monetary policy implementation [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system [1] - The article highlights the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - It is essential to uphold the decisive role of the market in the exchange rate formation process [1] - The article stresses the importance of using the exchange rate as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic and international balance of payments [1] - There is a call for reinforcing expectation guidance and preventing risks of excessive exchange rate adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the US dollar experienced a significant rebound due to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and accelerated tariff negotiations with major trading partners, while the Chinese yuan faced downward pressure despite some support from the central bank's actions [1][2]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market reached $206.43 billion in July, maintaining above $200 billion for four consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 9.38% [2]. - The onshore yuan fluctuated within a narrow range of 7.1550 to 7.1860 at the beginning of July, followed by a slight appreciation, but ultimately depreciated by 0.38% to close at 7.1930 by the end of the month [2]. - The CFETS yuan index against a basket of currencies rose to 96.76, reflecting a 1.48% appreciation compared to the previous month [2]. Offshore and Onshore Yuan Discrepancy - In July, the offshore yuan shifted from a premium to a discount against the onshore yuan, with the average daily discrepancy being -14 basis points, indicating minimal deviation between the two rates [3]. - The first half of July saw a balanced buying and selling force in the spot market, but by the second half, there was a notable increase in demand for buying yuan, leading to an overall net buying position for the month [3]. Interest Rate Differentials - In July, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose from approximately 4.25% at the beginning of the month to a peak of 4.5% in mid-July, before settling at 4.37% by the end of the month [4][5]. - The interest rate differential between Chinese and US bonds widened slightly, ending the month at -271 basis points [5].