Group 1: Report's Core View - The overall market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak. Oils have downward support and may receive additional upward drivers later [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,336,684 tons, compared with 989,489 tons in the same period last year. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far is 19,335,069 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.2%, reaching 45.1% of the annual export target [1] - The first - quarter arrival estimate in China remains at 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.2 million tons), slightly lower than the three - year average. The second - quarter arrival estimate slightly increases to 36.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 2.6 million tons) [1] - The near - month supply has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is low. The spot rhythm around the Spring Festival is unclear. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest is good, the main contract may decline further [1] Group 3: Oil Market - The market expects Malaysia's palm oil production in January to decline by 15% - 17%, and exports to increase significantly due to seasonal demand before the Spring Festival and Ramadan in February. If these factors persist until March, the ending inventory may drop significantly [2] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [2] - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton cargo of Canadian rapeseed after Canada's Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which boosts Canadian export prospects and may weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2] - Although Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan failed, there are significant buyers below. The crushing cost of rapeseed under the 15% tariff is still high, so the vegetable oil futures have strong support below. The U.S. biofuel policy in early March may bring additional upward drivers to the oil sector [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is uncertain about the later-stage state reserve release schedule, and the recent premium transactions of imported soybeans indicate a supply gap and strong short - term demand. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts may weaken due to the bearish effect of the USDA report and could decline further if South American harvest progresses well [1]. - In 2026, palm oil production is predicted to grow 1.0% moderately, but due to weak demand, exports will remain low at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks will stay high at 3.18 million tons. Palm oil prices are expected to be between 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year. Palm oil's price advantage, upcoming festivals, and the low - production season will support prices. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed by a Chinese importer may affect Australia's sales. Although the Indonesian palm oil B50 plan has failed and the upside potential is limited, there is significant buying support. The cost of crushing Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff is still high, providing strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3) Summaries by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 1.39%, up from 0.53% a week ago, compared to 0.23% last year and 2.38% in 2024, with a five - year average of 1.02% [1]. - The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) will bring continuous rainfall to most parts of Brazil in the next few weeks, affecting the harvest and sowing in major production areas until the second half of January [1]. Vegetable Oils - MBSB predicts a 1.0% moderate growth in palm oil production in 2026, with exports at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks at 3.18 million tons. The price is expected to be 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year [2]. - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton Panamax cargo of Canadian rapeseed after the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which may boost Canadian exports and weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2]. - The failure of Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan limits the upside potential, but there is significant buying support. The high crushing cost of Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff provides strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Red stars represent a predicted trend of rising prices, while green stars represent a predicted trend of falling prices. One star indicates a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor. Two stars mean holding long/short positions, with a clear upward/downward trend and the market situation evolving on the trading floor. Three stars suggest an even clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity at present. White stars indicate a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [10] - Investment ratings for different products: - Soybean No.1: ★☆☆ (predicted to be bullish with limited trading floor operability) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ (predicted to be bullish with limited trading floor operability) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ (predicted to be bullish with limited trading floor operability) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (predicted to be bearish with limited trading floor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and influencing factors, and provides investment suggestions based on these analyses. Key factors to watch include policy changes, weather conditions, trade agreements, and supply - demand data reports [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean No.1 - The price of the domestic soybean futures main contract is oscillating at a high level. Today, 32,000 tons of domestic soybeans were auctioned at a reserve price of 3,900 yuan/ton, with 1,300 tons sold at a 4.03% success rate and an average price of 3,900 yuan/ton. The spot market price is stable. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating horizontally. Short - term focus is on domestic soybean policies and market sentiment [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - US soybeans reached a recent high, and the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 rose accordingly. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in Brazil is slow, and some soybeans in Paraná state may need to be replanted due to a tornado. Commercial imports of US soybeans lack price advantages, while policy - based purchases should be unaffected. Attention is on the USDA November supply - demand report, and there are opportunities for bargain - hunting long positions after the relaxation of Sino - US trade relations [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - This week, focus on the guidance of the US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report. Rapeseed oil is leading the market strongly. Soybean oil and palm oil are following the upward trend, with soybean oil performing better. Palm oil in Malaysia has a high inventory, and future price trends depend on November's supply - demand situation. The loss in the near - end crushing profit of imported soybeans supports soybean oil prices. For palm oil, its price is oscillating horizontally, and its supply - demand situation and the trends of surrounding oils need to be monitored [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market maintains the pattern of strong oil and weak meal, with the positions of the main contracts increasing. Rapeseed oil is stronger than other vegetable oils, with increased提货量 at coastal oil mills. The inventory of rapeseed oil has declined significantly. Canada's biofuel incentive plan boosts the demand for Canadian rapeseed oil. The rapeseed futures price is under short - term pressure, and the pattern of strong oil and weak meal is expected to continue [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures contract 2601 continued to rise. In the Northeast, the temperature is dropping, and the grain sales progress is slower than expected, with stable - to - rising spot prices. In Shandong, the supply of corn is tight, and the spot price is stable. Wheat prices are weakening due to the expected auction. The rebound of corn futures is expected to be limited, and the 01 contract may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The far - month live pig futures continued to rise, and the near - month contracts followed. The spot price of live pigs decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg. The futures market is trading on the expectation of capacity reduction. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig cycle bottom often shows a double - bottom "W" shape, and there is a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The decline of egg futures accelerated, with positions shifting from near - month to far - month contracts and overall position reduction. The spot price is mostly stable across the country, with slight drops in some areas. The futures price is based on the spot market logic, with high production capacity on the supply side and the off - season of demand. High - position short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to spot performance and the culling of old hens [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the structural characteristics of the rapeseed meal market, indicating that despite a recovery in global rapeseed production, tight inventory and trade policy adjustments create a scenario of "increased production but not ample supply" [1][2] - For the 2025/2026 season, global rapeseed production is expected to reach 89.54 million tons, an increase of 4.46 million tons or 5% year-on-year, primarily driven by a historic expansion in the EU rapeseed planting area, which saw a growth of over 10% [1] - The global rapeseed ending inventory is projected to rise only to 9.23 million tons, reflecting a modest year-on-year increase of 0.9%, marking the second-lowest level in four years due to low initial stocks [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of oilseeds globally is sufficient, which puts pressure on rapeseed meal demand, leading to a "strong oil, weak meal" market dynamic [2] - The prices of soybean oil in the US and Brazil are supported by biodiesel policies, while strong demand for edible oils in India contributes to the "oil strong, meal weak" trend in the international market [2] - In contrast, the domestic market relies on stable protein demand, with crushing profits primarily supported by meal products, indicating a divergence in oil-meal ratios between domestic and international markets [2]