2025 年 12 月 16 日 棕榈油：减产未明确，偏弱震荡运行 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 期货部分：价格指报告日前一交易日收盘价：涨跌幅（除外盘）以收盘价计算，外盘以收盘价与其前一日结算价计算。基差部分：选取 华南油脂价格减主力合约期价；现货部分：指报告日前一交易日价格。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 AmSpec：马来西亚12月1-15日棕榈油出口量为587657吨，较上月同期出口的702692吨减少16.37%。 ITS：马来西亚 12 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 613172 吨，较上月同期出口的 728995 吨减少 15.89%。 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,558 | -0.58% | 8,436 | -1.43% | | | 豆油主力 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 马棕油累库超预期 棕榈油区间震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌134收于4018林吉特/吨，跌幅 3.23%；棕榈油01合约跌162收于8608元/吨，跌幅 1.85%；豆油01合约跌26收于8240元/吨，跌幅0.31%； 菜油01合约跌10收于9608元/吨，跌幅0.10%；CBOT豆油 主连跌1.1收于50.6美分/磅，跌幅2.13%；ICE油菜籽活 跃合约涨0.2收于618.4加元/吨，涨幅0.03%。 ⚫ 棕榈油领跌油脂，主要是MPOB报告发布，马棕油11月底 期末库存为284万吨，主要由于出口需求大幅大幅，累 库超预期，影响偏空；叠加高频数据显示，12月上旬产 量预估环比增加，出口继续疲软，12月马棕油库存或继 续增 ...

昨日三大油脂价格震荡，油脂盘面分化，受季节性减产周期到来，叠加近期低价刺激消费，棕榈油库存累库增幅 放缓，棕榈油价格震荡走强。 策略 油脂日报 | 2025-12-03 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8720.00元/吨，环比变化+68元，幅度+0.79%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8288.00 元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9745.00元/吨，环比变化-25.00元，幅度-0.26%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8660.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.46%，现货基差P01-60.00，环比变化-28.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8440.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%，现货基差Y01+152.00，环比变 化+0.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10030.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.40%，现货基差OI01+285.00， 环比变化-15.00元。 油脂走势分化，盘面持续震荡 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，印尼中央统计局（BPS）数据显示，截至10月该国棕榈油出口实现 ...

棕榈产区台风影响有限，油脂承压震荡 油脂日报 | 2025-12-02 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8418.00元/吨，环比变化-200元，幅度-2.32%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约7474.00 元/吨，环比变化-78.00元，幅度-1.03%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约8625.00元/吨，环比变化45.00元，幅度0.52%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9640.00元/吨，环比变化-230.00元，幅度-2.33%，现货基差P01+1222.00，环比变 化-30.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7730.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.77%，现货基差Y01+256.00， 环比变化18.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格8700.00元/吨，环比变化40.00元，幅度0.46%，现货基差OI01+75.00， 环比变化-5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，印度买家已锁定2026年4月至7月期间大量豆油采购，此举实属罕见，旨在应对 竞争对手棕榈油价格上涨。印度头号植物油采购商Patanjali Foods Ltd.副总裁Aashish Acha ...

油脂日报 | 2025-11-19 巴西大豆新作预计创新高，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8708.00元/吨，环比变化+28元，幅度+0.32%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8320.00 元/吨，环比变化+38.00元，幅度+0.46%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9874.00元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.06%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.93%，现货基差P01-58.00，环比变化+52.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8500.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.35%，现货基差Y01+180.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10220.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差OI01+346.00， 环比变化-4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，Abiove的预测与国家供应公司（Conab）上周发布的1776万吨产量预估基本一致。 巴西2026年大豆出口量预计达到1.11亿吨的新高，而2025年为1.09亿吨，向下修正50万吨。 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-11-13 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8744.00元/吨，环比变化-26元，幅度-0.30%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8288.00 元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.61%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9840.00元/吨，环比变化+65.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8680.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.69%，现货基差P01+-64.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8450.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y01+162.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10190.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.59%，现货基差 OI01+350.00，环比变化-5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，乌克兰2026/27年度油菜籽产量预计为340万吨，预估区间320-360万吨，与上次 预估持平。随着播种季节结束，乌克兰油菜籽产量预估稳定在340万吨。不包括克里米亚和被占领州(顿涅茨克、扎 波罗热、卢甘斯克和赫尔松)的乌克兰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. India is expected to further increase its palm oil imports in the second half of the year, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to reach 17 million tons in 2025, providing some support for palm oil, resulting in a slightly stronger fluctuation in oil prices [3] Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9,104 yuan/ton, a change of +110 yuan or +1.22% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,166 yuan/ton, a change of +92 yuan or +1.14%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +36 yuan or +0.38% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,040 yuan/ton, a change of -60 yuan or -0.66%, with a spot basis of P09 + -64 yuan, a change of -170 yuan; the spot price of grade one soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,240 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan/ton or +0.24%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 74 yuan, a change of -72 yuan; the spot price of grade four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,590 yuan/ton, a change of +30 yuan or +0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 98 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Recent Market Consultation Summary India's Palm Oil Imports - The president of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) said that due to rising festival demand and falling prices, India's palm oil imports may increase in the second half of this year. In the 2024/25 fiscal year ending in October, total edible oil imports are expected to remain at 16 million tons, including about 9 million tons of palm oil, 4.5 million tons of soybean oil, and about 3.5 million tons of sunflower oil [2] Malaysia's Palm Oil Production and Exports - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Malaysia's crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons in 2025, up from 19.3 million tons last year, and palm oil exports to reach 17 million tons, up from 16.9 million tons last year [2] US Soybean and Soybean Oil Exports - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, US net soybean export sales were 160,900 tons, down 41% from the previous week and 59% from the average of the previous four weeks; in the 2025/26 fiscal year, net sales were 238,800 tons, and export shipments were 360,700 tons, up 31% from the previous week and 28% from the average of the previous four weeks. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, US net soybean oil export sales were -600 tons, down significantly from the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks; in the 2025/26 fiscal year, net export sales were 2,000 tons. US soybean oil export shipments were 3,500 tons, down 22% from the previous week and 33% from the average of the previous four weeks [2] US Drought Report - As of the week ending July 22, about 8% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% the same period last year; about 9% of US corn planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and up from 4% the same period last year; about 3% of US cotton planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and down from 13% the same period last year [2] Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, sales, and inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamental improvement of palm oil production areas is limited, and the market is bottoming out through fluctuations; the hype about the weather of US soybeans is insufficient, and there is a lack of driving forces for soybean oil [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,336 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) was 7,972 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.28%. The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,477 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.08%. The Malaysian palm oil futures closing price was 3,970 ringgit/ton with a daily decrease of 0.43%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.55%. The CBOT soybean oil futures closing price was 53.65 cents/pound with a daily increase of 1.71% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures decreased by 84,471 lots to 479,503 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,330 lots to 428,231 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures decreased by 78,008 lots to 255,064 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,148 lots to 550,375 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures decreased by 57,924 lots to 297,121 lots, and the open interest increased by 10,063 lots to 309,340 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 30 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,190 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,500 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,005 US dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 94 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 218 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 23 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,141 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 364 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil futures was - 24 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil futures was 42 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil futures was 49 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From June 1 - 30, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 0.23% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 0.65% month - on - month [2] - **Palm Oil in Indonesia**: In May 2025, Indonesia's exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 1.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53%, and the export value increased by nearly 71% to 1.85 billion US dollars. In the first five months of this year, the cumulative exports reached 8.3 million tons, higher than 8.01 million tons in the same period last year [5] - **US Oilseed Processing**: In May 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons; the soybean oil output was 2.42 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. The rapeseed crushing volume was 107,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53,182 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,629 tons; the rapeseed oil output was 84 million pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 35% and a year - on - year decrease of 28%. The output of US corn distillers dried grains (DDGS) was 1.776 million tons, lower than 2.003 million tons in the same period last year [5] - **South American Soybean Production and Exports**: StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 168.75 million tons. Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in June to reach 13.93 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 1.67 million tons. Argentina's agricultural exports in June increased by 87% year - on - year, with export revenues reaching 3.7 billion US dollars [6] - **EU Oilseed Imports**: As of June 29, 2025, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.79 million tons, lower than 3.49 million tons in the same period last year; soybean imports were 14.27 million tons, higher than 13.2 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal imports were 19.25 million tons, higher than 15.28 million tons in the same period last year; rapeseed imports were 7.33 million tons, higher than 5.68 million tons in the same period last year [6] - **Indian Oilseed Planting**: As of June 27, 2025, the overall planting area of India's summer - sown and autumn - harvested crops increased by 11.3% year - on - year. The planting areas of pulses and rice increased significantly by 37.2% and 47.3% respectively, and the planting areas of oilseeds such as soybeans and peanuts also increased [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oilseed futures opened lower, with palm oil futures leading the decline due to a neutral to bearish MPOB report indicating strong supply and weak demand for palm oil in producing regions, resulting in a relaxed domestic oilseed supply and limiting overall gains in the oilseed sector [1] Group 1 - Palm oil futures are experiencing a significant decline, influenced by the MPOB report [1] - The MPOB report suggests a neutral to bearish outlook for palm oil, highlighting strong supply and weak demand [1] - The overall oilseed sector is facing limited gains due to a relaxed domestic supply situation [1]

数据显示，5月23日全国进口四级菜油均价现货价格报价9613.75元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（9391.00 元/吨）升水222.75元/吨。 （5月23日）今日全国菜籽油价格一览表 5月23日，加拿大菜油(6月船期)1050美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜油(8月船期)1030美元/ 吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 加拿大谷物委员会发布的数据显示，截至5月18日当周，加拿大油菜籽出口量较前周增加37.38%至17.86 万吨，之前一周为13.0万吨。 | 规格 | 品牌/产地 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 等级:三级 ; | 福建厦门 | 9380元/吨 | 市场价 | 福建省/厦门市 | 福建厦门市场 | | 等级:三级 ; | 安徽六安 | 9600元/吨 | 市场价 | 安徽省/六安市 | 安徽六安市场 | | 等级:三级 ; | 广东东莞 | 9430元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省/东莞市 | 广东东莞市场 | | 等级:三级 ; | 安徽合肥 | 9550元/吨 | 市场价 | 安徽省/合肥市 ...