油脂日报 | 2026-01-21 棕榈油产量变化成为焦点，盘面震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8748.00元/吨，环比变化+100元，幅度+1.16%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8032.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.45%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8948.00元/吨，环比变化+46.00元，幅度+0.52%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8720.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元，幅度+1.04%，现货基差P05-28.00，环比变化 -10.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8410.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.36%，现货基差Y05+378.00， 环比变化-6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9780.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.31%，现货基差 OI05+832.00，环比变化-16.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(2月船期)C&F价格1218美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调9美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4 月船期)C&F价格1155美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调16美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿 ...

油脂日报 | 2026-01-09 加拿大总理预计访华，或影响菜系价格 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8612.00元/吨，环比变化+50元，幅度+0.58%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7944.00 元/吨，环比变化-14.00元，幅度-0.18%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8956.00元/吨，环比变化-139.00元，幅度-1.53%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8580.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.94%，现货基差P05-32.00，环比变化 +30.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8340.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y05+396.00， 环比变化+24.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9710.00元/吨，环比变化-140.00元，幅度-1.42%，现货基差 OI05+754.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：印尼政策动态：据外媒报道，印尼能源部官员透露，因资金紧张，印尼可能提高棕榈油出口 税以支持生物柴油计划；同时，B50生物柴油路测已于12月启动，计划今年下半年实施，2025年该国生物柴油消费 量 ...

油脂月报 | 2026-01-04 油脂供应端约束将逐步显现 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，12月收盘棕榈油2605合约8584元/吨，环比下跌178元，跌幅2.03%；12月收盘豆油2605合约7862 元/吨，环比下跌218元，跌幅2.7%；12月收盘菜油2605合约9087元/吨，环比下跌320元，跌幅3.4%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格8570元/吨，环比下跌150元/吨，跌幅1.72%，现货基差P05-14，环比上涨28元；天津 地区一级豆油现货8250元/吨，环比下跌190，跌幅2.25%，现货基差Y05+388，环比上涨28；江苏地区四级菜 油现货价格9830元/吨，环比下跌38元，跌幅0.38%，现货基差OI05+743，环比上涨282。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，USDA：全球2025/26年度棕榈油产量预计为8001.6万吨，较上月预估下修80万吨。SPPOMA：2025 年12月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少8.49%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.12%，产量环比上月同 期减少9.12%。据海关总署数据显示，2025年11月我国棕榈油脂合计进口40.5 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 棕榈油：减产未明确，偏弱震荡运行 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 期货部分：价格指报告日前一交易日收盘价：涨跌幅（除外盘）以收盘价计算，外盘以收盘价与其前一日结算价计算。基差部分：选取 华南油脂价格减主力合约期价；现货部分：指报告日前一交易日价格。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 AmSpec：马来西亚12月1-15日棕榈油出口量为587657吨，较上月同期出口的702692吨减少16.37%。 ITS：马来西亚 12 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 613172 吨，较上月同期出口的 728995 吨减少 15.89%。 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,558 | -0.58% | 8,436 | -1.43% | | | 豆油主力 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 马棕油累库超预期 棕榈油区间震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌134收于4018林吉特/吨，跌幅 3.23%；棕榈油01合约跌162收于8608元/吨，跌幅 1.85%；豆油01合约跌26收于8240元/吨，跌幅0.31%； 菜油01合约跌10收于9608元/吨，跌幅0.10%；CBOT豆油 主连跌1.1收于50.6美分/磅，跌幅2.13%；ICE油菜籽活 跃合约涨0.2收于618.4加元/吨，涨幅0.03%。 ⚫ 棕榈油领跌油脂，主要是MPOB报告发布，马棕油11月底 期末库存为284万吨，主要由于出口需求大幅大幅，累 库超预期，影响偏空；叠加高频数据显示，12月上旬产 量预估环比增加，出口继续疲软，12月马棕油库存或继 续增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday, and the oil market showed differentiation. Due to the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the recent low - price stimulation of consumption, the growth rate of palm oil inventory accumulation slowed down, and the palm oil price fluctuated strongly [3] Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.79% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,288.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,745.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 25.00 yuan or -0.26% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,660.00 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan or +0.46%, and the spot basis was P01 - 60.00, a change of -28.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,440.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was Y01 + 152.00, with no change; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,030.00 yuan/ton, a change of -40.00 yuan or -0.40%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 285.00, a change of -15.00 yuan [1] Market News - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported about 20.2 billion US dollars of palm oil (including crude palm oil and processed products). The total export volume of palm oil from January to October 2025 reached 19.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. In October alone, the export volume was 1.91 million tons. In October, the global palm oil price increased by 0.80% month - on - month to 1,045.04 US dollars per ton [2] - The US Soybean Association is actively seeking ways to expand the market demand for US soybeans. The dairy industry is one of the livestock sectors that have recently entered this field. Traders said that India's soybean oil imports in November decreased by 12% month - on - month to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 44% month - on - month to 145,000 tons, the lowest level in two years. India's edible oil imports in November decreased by 11.5% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons, the lowest level in seven months [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was 1,186 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,125 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,105 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,085 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [3] Core View - The impact of typhoons in palm-producing areas is limited, and the oil market is under pressure and fluctuating [1] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan or 2.32% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 7,474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan or 1.03% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 8,625 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 0.52% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan or 2.33%, and the spot basis was P01 + 1,222 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 7,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or 0.77%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 256 yuan, an increase of 18 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 8,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.46%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 75 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [1] Market News - Indian buyers have locked in large soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026 to cope with rising palm oil prices, with monthly purchases of over 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil [2] - As of the week ending October 23, the net export sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.45 million tons, in line with market expectations, and 0 tons for the 2026/2027 season [2] - The net export sales of US corn for the 2025/2026 season were 1.805 million tons, in line with market expectations, and 160,000 tons for the 2026/2027 season [2] - As of last Thursday, 89% of the expected soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has been planted, and 99% of the expected first-season corn planting area in the central-southern region [2] - The three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association stated that the floods in Sumatra did not significantly impact palm oil production, and Malaysian palm oil prices dropped significantly after the close of the Dalian palm oil market. Attention should be paid to the recent soybean oil reserve release [2]

油脂日报 | 2025-11-19 巴西大豆新作预计创新高，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8708.00元/吨，环比变化+28元，幅度+0.32%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8320.00 元/吨，环比变化+38.00元，幅度+0.46%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9874.00元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.06%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.93%，现货基差P01-58.00，环比变化+52.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8500.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.35%，现货基差Y01+180.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10220.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差OI01+346.00， 环比变化-4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，Abiove的预测与国家供应公司（Conab）上周发布的1776万吨产量预估基本一致。 巴西2026年大豆出口量预计达到1.11亿吨的新高，而2025年为1.09亿吨，向下修正50万吨。 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-11-13 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8744.00元/吨，环比变化-26元，幅度-0.30%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8288.00 元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.61%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9840.00元/吨，环比变化+65.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8680.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.69%，现货基差P01+-64.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8450.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y01+162.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10190.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.59%，现货基差 OI01+350.00，环比变化-5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，乌克兰2026/27年度油菜籽产量预计为340万吨，预估区间320-360万吨，与上次 预估持平。随着播种季节结束，乌克兰油菜籽产量预估稳定在340万吨。不包括克里米亚和被占领州(顿涅茨克、扎 波罗热、卢甘斯克和赫尔松)的乌克兰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. India is expected to further increase its palm oil imports in the second half of the year, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to reach 17 million tons in 2025, providing some support for palm oil, resulting in a slightly stronger fluctuation in oil prices [3] Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9,104 yuan/ton, a change of +110 yuan or +1.22% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,166 yuan/ton, a change of +92 yuan or +1.14%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +36 yuan or +0.38% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,040 yuan/ton, a change of -60 yuan or -0.66%, with a spot basis of P09 + -64 yuan, a change of -170 yuan; the spot price of grade one soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,240 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan/ton or +0.24%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 74 yuan, a change of -72 yuan; the spot price of grade four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,590 yuan/ton, a change of +30 yuan or +0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 98 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Recent Market Consultation Summary India's Palm Oil Imports - The president of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) said that due to rising festival demand and falling prices, India's palm oil imports may increase in the second half of this year. In the 2024/25 fiscal year ending in October, total edible oil imports are expected to remain at 16 million tons, including about 9 million tons of palm oil, 4.5 million tons of soybean oil, and about 3.5 million tons of sunflower oil [2] Malaysia's Palm Oil Production and Exports - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Malaysia's crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons in 2025, up from 19.3 million tons last year, and palm oil exports to reach 17 million tons, up from 16.9 million tons last year [2] US Soybean and Soybean Oil Exports - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, US net soybean export sales were 160,900 tons, down 41% from the previous week and 59% from the average of the previous four weeks; in the 2025/26 fiscal year, net sales were 238,800 tons, and export shipments were 360,700 tons, up 31% from the previous week and 28% from the average of the previous four weeks. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, US net soybean oil export sales were -600 tons, down significantly from the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks; in the 2025/26 fiscal year, net export sales were 2,000 tons. US soybean oil export shipments were 3,500 tons, down 22% from the previous week and 33% from the average of the previous four weeks [2] US Drought Report - As of the week ending July 22, about 8% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% the same period last year; about 9% of US corn planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and up from 4% the same period last year; about 3% of US cotton planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and down from 13% the same period last year [2] Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, sales, and inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]