1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - High prices have suppressed demand, and the prices of edible oils are oscillating weakly. Recently, as crude oil prices have risen, the price center of vegetable oils has been significantly pulled up, but high prices have had a certain inhibitory effect on downstream demand, leading to a weakening of demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,692.00 yuan/ton, a change of -262 yuan or -2.63% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,540.00 yuan/ton, a change of -104.00 yuan or -1.20%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,780.00 yuan/ton, a change of -53.00 yuan or -0.54% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,690.00 yuan/ton, a change of -160.00 yuan or -1.62%, with a spot basis of P05 - 2.00, a change of +102.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,740.00 yuan/ton, a change of -30.00 yuan/ton or -0.34%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 200.00, a change of +74.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,310.00 yuan/ton, a change of -50.00 yuan or -0.48%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 530.00, a change of +3.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Consultation Summary - **Argentine Soybean Oil**: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,192 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 46 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1,187 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 33 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Imported Rapeseed Oil**: The C&F quotation of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,150 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F quotation of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1,130 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - **Soybeans**: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 509 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 503 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was 476 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Imported Soybean Premiums**: The premium of Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 229 cents/bushel, a decrease of 1 cent/bushel compared to the previous trading day; the premium of the US West Coast (April shipment) was 213 cents/bushel, a decrease of 1 cent/bushel compared to the previous trading day; the premium of Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 140 cents/bushel, an increase of 10 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats oscillated. Driven by rising crude oil, geopolitical conflicts, and expectations of biofuel policies, the market is short - term bullish, but the fundamental demand is weak. The strengthening of the energy attribute has driven the prices of palm oil and soybean oil to rise in tandem with crude oil. The tense situation in the Middle East has enhanced the economic viability of biodiesel, supporting the prices of oils and fats. However, high inventories and the post - holiday consumption off - season have made downstream procurement cautious. Overall, the oils and fats are oscillating [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9954.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 56 yuan and a decline of - 0.56%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8644.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 72.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.83%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9833.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 115.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.16% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9850.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 110.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.10%, and the spot basis was P05 - 104.00, with a month - on - month change of - 54.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8770.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 120.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 1.35%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 126.00, with a month - on - month change of - 48.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10360.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 170.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 527.00, with a month - on - month change of - 55.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) C&F price was 594 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price was 600 US dollars/ton, down 27 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) C&F price was 1238 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) C&F price was 1220 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1150 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1130 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 534 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 528 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 472 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 299 cents/bushel, up 69 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; US West Coast (April shipment) was 283 cents/bushel, up 69 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 130 cents/bushel, up 10 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of easing, international crude oil prices remain high, and the shipping freight for imported soybeans in China continues to rise. On March 16, the shipping freight for soybeans from the US Gulf to China was quoted at 59 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the same period last week; the freight from the US West to China was quoted at 33 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the freight from Brazil to China was quoted at 52 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of palm oil have limited driving force, and it is in a volatile adjustment phase; the report on soybean oil lacks highlights, and it is in a range - bound oscillation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data - Palm oil main contract: closing price (day session) is 8,940 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.82%, closing price (night session) is 8,904 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.40%; trading volume is 381,959 lots, an increase of 36,695 lots; open interest is 424,586 lots, a decrease of 11,641 lots [1] - Soybean oil main contract: closing price (day session) is 8,098 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.20%, closing price (night session) is 8,092 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%; trading volume is 216,231 lots, an increase of 23,523 lots; open interest is 670,976 lots, a decrease of 7,499 lots [1] - Rapeseed oil main contract: closing price (day session) is 9,096 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.45%, closing price (night session) is 9,085 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%; trading volume is 180,728 lots, an increase of 46,810 lots; open interest is 266,839 lots, a decrease of 5,934 lots [1] - Malaysian palm oil main contract: closing price is 4,128 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.82%, closing price (night session) is 4,098 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.07% [1] - CBOT soybean oil main contract: closing price is 57.73 cents/pound with an increase of 0.98% [1] 3.1.2 Spot Data - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price is 9,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price is 8,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price is 10,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB price (continuous contract): 1,085 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [1] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread Data - Palm oil basis in Guangdong is 110 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong is 542 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi is 1,024 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread is 156 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread is - 842 yuan/ton; palm oil 5 - 9 spread is 28 yuan/ton; soybean oil 5 - 9 spread is 50 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread is 21 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January were 1,484,267 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%, and the palm oil inventory was 2,815,493 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72% [2] - The chairman of the Malaysian Palm Oil Plantation Council (MPOC) said that by 2027, more than 2 million hectares of Malaysian palm oil plantations will have a tree age of 19 years or more, and the crude palm oil price this year is expected to be between 3,900 and 4,000 ringgit per metric ton [3][4] - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the global soybean ending inventory by 1.1 million tons to 125.5 million tons due to the increase in Brazilian inventory, and raised Malaysia's 2025/26 palm oil production by 500,000 tons to 20.2 million tons [4] - The USDA reported that China is considering buying more US soybeans. If so, the global soybean export pattern may change [4] - As of Monday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's Paraná state in the 2025/26 season has reached 20%, a 6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but behind last year's 33% [5] - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 11.71 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 11.42 million tons [5] - The European Commission has launched a public consultation on the draft revision of the "Authorization Regulation (EU) 2019/807", which plans to gradually phase out biofuels produced from palm oil and soybean oil [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The change in palm oil production has become the focus, and the market is oscillating. The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. Due to the poor export data, the quotes of foreign merchants in the producing areas decreased with the market, and the bargaining space was large. As a result, the domestic import profit was significantly repaired, and the number of ship purchases increased. Palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. The domestic spot basis remained weak, and the futures would continue to be suppressed by the inventory accumulation in the producing areas and the domestic market, with limited upside potential. Attention should be paid to whether the seasonal production reduction in the producing areas is verified [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,748.00 yuan/ton, a change of +100 yuan, or +1.16%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,032.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan, or +0.45%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,948.00 yuan/ton, a change of +46.00 yuan, or +0.52% [1] - **Spot**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, a change of +90.00 yuan, or +1.04%, with a spot basis of P05 - 28.00, a change of -10.00 yuan. The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,410.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton, or +0.36%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 378.00, a change of -6.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan, or +0.31%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 832.00, a change of -16.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - **Import Prices**: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,218 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,155 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,010 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 529 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 537 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 474 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 447 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes remained unchanged [2] - **Export Volume**: According to AmSpec, a Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 were 892,428 tons, an increase of 8.64% compared to the 821,442 tons exported in the same period last month [2] - **Soybean Processing**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in January decreased, and the weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills dropped below 2 million tons. As of the end of the third week (January 17), the average soybean operating rate of domestic major soybean oil mills was 54.50%, a decrease of 1.57% from the previous week's 56.06%. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 1.9974 million tons, a decrease of 57,400 tons from the previous week's 2.0548 million tons. However, the expected soybean processing volume this week is expected to rise to 2.2824 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.27% [2] 3.3 Strategy - The recommended strategy is "Neutral" [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The price of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The market anticipates that the tariff policy for rapeseed oil may be adjusted with the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, leading to significant fluctuations in the market [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,612.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +50 yuan and a change rate of +0.58%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,944.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of -14.00 yuan and a change rate of -0.18%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,956.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of -139.00 yuan and a change rate of -1.53% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,580.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +80.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.94%, and the spot basis was P05 - 32.00, with a day-on-day change of +30.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,340.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +10.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.12%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 396.00, with a day-on-day change of +24.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 9,710.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of -140.00 yuan and a change rate of -1.42%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 754.00, with a day-on-day change of -1.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - **Indonesian Policy Dynamics**: Due to financial constraints, Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax to support the biodiesel program. The B50 biodiesel road test started in December, and the program is planned to be implemented in the second half of this year. In 2025, the country's biodiesel consumption increased by 7.6% year-on-year [2] - **Supply Concerns**: Indonesian President Prabowo stated that this year, 4 to 5 million hectares of illegally operated palm oil plantations may be expropriated. Last year, his working group took over more than 4 million hectares of forest land [2] - **SPPOMA Data**: From December 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 7.39% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13% month-on-month, and the output decreased by 8.07% month-on-month [2] - **MPOA Data**: The estimated palm oil output in Malaysia in December decreased by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons [2] - **Demand**: Affected by weak winter demand and the substitution of competing products, India's palm oil imports in December dropped to an eight - month low [2] - **USDA Commissioner Report**: The U.S. Department of Agriculture's commissioner in Kuala Lumpur predicted that given Indonesia's promotion of the B50 policy, Malaysia's exports are expected to benefit. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the 2025/26 fiscal year will be approximately 16.2 million tons, and the ending inventory will drop to 2.16 million tons [2] - **Canada - China Relations**: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to visit China next week. China's Ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, stated that Beijing is willing to cancel the tariff on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Ottawa canceling the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the oil and fat industry [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the futures prices of the three major oils and fats first declined and then rebounded. The upper - half of the month saw price pressure due to factors such as unexpected inventory accumulation in Malaysia, global rapeseed bumper harvest, low - level crude oil, and imported soybean auctions. In the second half, price support emerged due to factors like seasonal production cuts in Malaysia, export orders for soybean oil, and continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil [6] - In the future, the supply constraints of oils and fats will gradually appear. Although the current inventory of some oils is high, the supply of palm oil will be constrained during the production - reduction season, and the supply pressure of rapeseed oil has not fully emerged [2][5][8][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Quotes - Futures: In December, the closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,584 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 178 yuan or 2.03%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,862 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 218 yuan or 2.7%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,087 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 320 yuan or 3.4% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,570 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton or 1.72%, and the spot basis was P05 - 14, a month - on - month increase of 28 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 190 yuan or 2.25%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 388, a month - on - month increase of 28 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,830 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38 yuan or 0.38%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 743, a month - on - month increase of 282 yuan [1] 3.2 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: The USDA estimates that the global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season will be 80.016 million tons, a downward revision of 800,000 tons from last month's estimate. From December 1 - 25, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. In November 2025, China's total palm oil imports were 405,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 48.96% and a year - on - year increase of 68.16%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative palm oil imports were 2.9329 million tons, a decrease of 325,100 tons or 9.98% compared with the same period last year [2] - Demand: In December, the total transaction volume of palm oil in domestic key oil mills was 13,000 tons, with an average daily transaction volume of 590.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 709.25 tons or 54.55% [2] - Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons or 4.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 205,700 tons or 38.93% [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In November 2025, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.373 million tons compared with October and a year - on - year increase of 953,000 tons or 13.32%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 103.7814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6872 million tons or 6.89%. In November 2025, China's soybean oil imports were 51,226.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.42% and a year - on - year increase of 827.22%. From January to November, the cumulative soybean oil imports were 339,348.067 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,326.984 tons or 23.84%. In December 2025, the soybean - pressed soybean oil output of domestic oil mills was 1.7196 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons or 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 141,900 tons or 8.99%. From January to December 2025, the total soybean - pressed soybean oil output was 19.3287 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.47% [3] - Demand: In December, the total transaction volume of bulk soybean oil in domestic key oil mills was 461,400 tons, with an average daily transaction volume of 21,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.58% in total transaction volume and an increase of 2.33% in average daily transaction volume [3] - Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.089 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,500 tons or 3.07% and a year - on - year increase of 122,700 tons or 12.70% [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In December, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the same as last month. The rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the same as last month. The rapeseed oil pick - up volume of coastal oil mills was 8,500 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons compared with last month. It is expected that the rapeseed oil pick - up volume in the market will further decline in January 2026 [5] - Inventory: As of the end of December, the inventory of imported rapeseed across the country was 0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory of coastal oil mills was 4,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - In December, the futures prices of the three major oils and fats first declined and then rebounded. In the first half of the month, due to factors such as unexpected inventory accumulation in Malaysia, global rapeseed bumper harvest, low - level crude oil, and imported soybean auctions, the prices of oils and fats were under pressure. Rapeseed oil had the largest decline among the oils and fats because of the large previous increase and the departure of funds. In the second half of the month, with the seasonal production cuts in Malaysia, export orders for soybean oil, and continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, the prices of oils and fats were supported and rebounded slightly [6] - As of December 31, 2025, the price difference between the soybean oil and palm oil 05 contracts was - 722, and the price difference between the rapeseed oil and palm oil 05 contracts was 503 [6] 3.6 Future Outlook - Soybean oil: Brazil's soybean sowing is nearly complete, and the weather in the production areas of Argentina and Brazil is normal, with good crop growth. The expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans remains unchanged, and the CBOT soybean price has fallen under pressure. Although the total sales of US soybeans to China this season are lower than last year, the soybeans are being shipped, and the shortage of soybeans in the first quarter in China may be alleviated. With sufficient soybean arrivals, the soybean - crushing start - up rate of oil mills in December was high, and the supply of soybean oil was abundant with high inventory. Recently, the market is concerned that the customs clearance time of soybean arrivals may be extended, and the soybean - related products rebounded at the end of December. There may be two additional export orders for soybean oil in March, which will help reduce the domestic soybean oil inventory [7] - Palm oil: Indonesia has set the reference price of crude palm oil in January at $915.64 per ton, and the export tax remains at $74 per ton. Additionally, a 10% special export tax is levied on crude palm oil, and the cost support has weakened. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November increased significantly, which put pressure on prices. India's palm oil imports may continue to increase in December. Although the domestic palm oil inventory is still accumulating, the supply will be constrained as the production area enters the production - reduction season, and the low inventory in Indonesia also provides some support for prices [8] - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed production in Canada and Australia has increased, and the global rapeseed supply is in a loose pattern this season. The ICE rapeseed price has declined. The export data of Canadian rapeseed is not good, which is expected to continue to suppress the rapeseed market. Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, the available spot is limited, the spot basis is high, and the spot merchants are strongly willing to support prices. The supply increase from imported Australian rapeseed is limited, and the short - term supply pressure has not fully emerged [9][10] 3.7 Strategies - Soybean oil: Pay attention to the positive spread logic from January to March, and layout the near - month basis based on export orders and spot tightness [13] - Rapeseed oil: Seize the short - term basis strength opportunity based on the tight spot situation [13] - Palm oil: Layout the basis at low prices and pay attention to the changes in the origin's inventory and import data [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is experiencing an unclear production decline and is operating in a weak and volatile manner [1] - Soybean oil is operating weakly due to the weak performance of US soybeans, and it lacks the strength to stabilize [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,558 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% change, and night - session was 8,436 yuan/ton with a - 1.43% change; soybean oil's day - session was 8,222 yuan/ton with a - 0.22% change, and night - session was 7,916 yuan/ton with a - 3.72% change; rapeseed oil's day - session was 9,430 yuan/ton with a - 1.85% change, and night - session was 9,124 yuan/ton with a - 3.24% change; Malaysian palm oil's day - session was 4,006 ringgit/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - session was 3,995 ringgit/ton with a - 0.32% change; CBOT soybean oil's day - session was 50.00 cents/pound with a - 1.21% change [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 32,641 to 81,469 lots, and open interest decreased by 7,815 to 123,278 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 15,699 to 100,638 lots, and open interest decreased by 21,110 to 165,244 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 29,451 to 58,362 lots, and open interest decreased by 14,132 to 45,160 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 8,500 yuan/ton with a - 80 yuan change; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,560 yuan/ton with a - 50 yuan change; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 10,040 yuan/ton with a - 150 yuan change; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,030 dollars/ton with no change [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) was - 58 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 338 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 610 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 704 yuan/ton (previous day) and 795 yuan/ton (two days ago); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 552 yuan/ton (previous day) and - 558 yuan/ton (two days ago); palm oil 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton (previous day) and 56 yuan/ton (two days ago); soybean oil 1 - 5 spread was 282 yuan/ton (previous day) and 246 yuan/ton (two days ago); rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 234 yuan/ton (previous day) and 261 yuan/ton (two days ago) [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 were 587,657 tons, a 16.37% decrease from the same period last month; ITS reported exports of 613,172 tons, a 15.89% decrease from the same period last month [3] - India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% to 632,341 tons compared to October; soybean oil imports decreased by over 18% to 370,661 tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% to 142,953 tons, hitting a two - year low. Total edible oil imports decreased by 13.3% to 1.15 million tons. India also imported 5,000 tons of rapeseed oil from the UAE and a record - high 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China [5] - A USDA private exporter reported a sale of 136,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [6] - NOPA reported that US soybean crushing in November decreased by 5.1% from the record high in October to 216.041 million bushels, but increased by 11.8% compared to the same period in 2024. The market expected 220.285 million bushels. As of November 30, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory rose to a seven - month high of 1.513 billion pounds, a 15.9% increase from the end of October and a 39.6% increase from the same period last year. The market expected an average of 1.408 billion pounds. US soybean meal production in November was 5,109,386 short tons, and soybean oil production was 2.49677 billion pounds [7] - CONAB reported that as of December 13, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 94.1%, compared to 90.3% last week, 96.8% last year, and a five - year average of 90.6%. AgRural reported that as of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is - 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is - 1 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil fell 134 to close at 4,018 ringgit/ton, a decline of 3.23%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 162 to close at 8,608 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.85%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 26 to close at 8,240 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.31%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 10 to close at 9,608 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.10%; the main contract of CBOT soybean oil fell 1.1 to close at 50.6 cents/pound, a decline of 2.13%; the active contract of ICE rapeseed rose 0.2 to close at 618.4 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.03% [4][6]. - Palm oil led the decline in oils and fats. The MPOB report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, mainly due to a significant decline in export demand and unexpected inventory accumulation, which was bearish. High - frequency data showed that the estimated output in early December increased month - on - month and exports continued to be weak, so Malaysian palm oil inventory in December may continue to increase. Near - month soybean oil had limited decline due to short - term supply shortage expectations; US soybean oil fluctuated and declined following US soybeans; Russian imported rapeseed oil was returned due to quarantine issues, so rapeseed oil had good resistance to decline [4][6]. - Macroeconomically, attention should be paid to the release of the US November non - farm payrolls data, the interest rate decisions of central banks in Japan, Europe, etc. The US dollar index weakened, and oil prices fluctuated weakly. Fundamentally, the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of November exceeded expectations, which was bearish. High - frequency data showed that the output of Malaysian palm oil maintained an increasing trend in early December, and export demand continued to weaken. It is expected that the inventory in December may still increase. Short - term palm oil is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The main trading data of the market last week included price changes and percentage changes of various contracts such as CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as spot prices and price differences between different oils [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil output in November was 1.94 million tons, a 5.3% decrease from the previous month; the export volume was 1.21 million tons, a 28.13% decrease from the previous month; the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, a 13.04% increase from the previous month, and the market expectation was 2.66 million tons, so the report was bearish [7]. - From December 1 - 10, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.24% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.87% month - on - month. According to different shipping survey institutions' data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from December 1 - 10 showed different changes compared with the same period last month [7][8]. - Malaysia's industry regulatory agency said that Malaysia's palm oil output is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time this year. Assuming favorable weather conditions and continuous harvesting efficiency, Malaysia's palm oil output this year is expected to be between 20 million and 20.5 million tons [8]. - CIMB Securities said that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to increase by 3.0% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, exports are expected to increase by 2.0% month - on - month, which is not enough to offset the estimated output growth. The output of palm oil in December is expected to decrease by 11% month - on - month to 1.72 million tons [8]. - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the inventory of three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.1937 million tons, a decrease of 0.38 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 272,000 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.163 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 180,700 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 683,700 tons, an increase of 302,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 167,000 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 347,000 tons, a decrease of 182,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 75,700 tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 16,520 tons, compared with 27,380 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 320 tons, compared with 140 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - An Indonesian official said that a special government task force has ordered dozens of palm oil - planting and mining companies to pay a total fine of 386.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah (equivalent to $2.31 billion) for illegal operations in forest areas. The task force has seized 3.7 million hectares of plantations and more than 5,300 hectares of mining areas and aims to reach 4 million hectares by the end of the year [10]. - The USDA report showed that the global palm oil output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.016 million tons, a downward revision of 800,000 tons from the previous month's forecast. The global ending inventory of palm oil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 15.206 million tons, a downward revision of 383,000 tons from the previous month's forecast. The global palm oil export in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 45.433 million tons, a downward revision of 275,000 tons from the previous month's forecast. Among them, Indonesia's palm oil export is expected to be 23.7 million tons, a downward revision of 300,000 tons from the previous month's forecast; Malaysia's palm oil export is expected to be 16.1 million tons, the same as the previous month's forecast [10]. Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oil futures, and spot prices, as well as the inventory, output, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of domestic three major oils [11][13][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday, and the oil market showed differentiation. Due to the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the recent low - price stimulation of consumption, the growth rate of palm oil inventory accumulation slowed down, and the palm oil price fluctuated strongly [3] Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.79% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,288.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,745.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 25.00 yuan or -0.26% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,660.00 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan or +0.46%, and the spot basis was P01 - 60.00, a change of -28.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,440.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was Y01 + 152.00, with no change; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,030.00 yuan/ton, a change of -40.00 yuan or -0.40%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 285.00, a change of -15.00 yuan [1] Market News - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported about 20.2 billion US dollars of palm oil (including crude palm oil and processed products). The total export volume of palm oil from January to October 2025 reached 19.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. In October alone, the export volume was 1.91 million tons. In October, the global palm oil price increased by 0.80% month - on - month to 1,045.04 US dollars per ton [2] - The US Soybean Association is actively seeking ways to expand the market demand for US soybeans. The dairy industry is one of the livestock sectors that have recently entered this field. Traders said that India's soybean oil imports in November decreased by 12% month - on - month to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 44% month - on - month to 145,000 tons, the lowest level in two years. India's edible oil imports in November decreased by 11.5% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons, the lowest level in seven months [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was 1,186 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,125 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,105 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,085 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [3] Core View - The impact of typhoons in palm-producing areas is limited, and the oil market is under pressure and fluctuating [1] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan or 2.32% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 7,474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan or 1.03% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 8,625 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 0.52% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan or 2.33%, and the spot basis was P01 + 1,222 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 7,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or 0.77%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 256 yuan, an increase of 18 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 8,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.46%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 75 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [1] Market News - Indian buyers have locked in large soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026 to cope with rising palm oil prices, with monthly purchases of over 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil [2] - As of the week ending October 23, the net export sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.45 million tons, in line with market expectations, and 0 tons for the 2026/2027 season [2] - The net export sales of US corn for the 2025/2026 season were 1.805 million tons, in line with market expectations, and 160,000 tons for the 2026/2027 season [2] - As of last Thursday, 89% of the expected soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has been planted, and 99% of the expected first-season corn planting area in the central-southern region [2] - The three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association stated that the floods in Sumatra did not significantly impact palm oil production, and Malaysian palm oil prices dropped significantly after the close of the Dalian palm oil market. Attention should be paid to the recent soybean oil reserve release [2]