油脂周度行情观察 陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 1.马棕基本面改善，产量下降，出口增加，12月上旬对印度出口增加，但库存仍有累库压力。SPPOMA显示12月1-20日马来西 亚棕榈油产量环比下滑7.15%，鲜果串单产下滑6.26%，出油率下降0.17%。AmSpec显示马来西亚12月1-20日棕榈油出口量为 821442吨，环比减少0.87%。SGS预计马来西亚12月1-20日棕榈油出口量为676674吨，环比增加43.6%。ITS数据显示马来西亚 12月1-20日棕榈油产品出口量为851,057吨，环比增加2.4%。马来西亚下调其1月毛棕榈油参考价，1月毛棕榈油参考价为每 吨3946.17林吉特，出口关税下调至9.5%。印尼总检察长于本周三表示，该国已核定 2026 年可向在林区非法作业的棕榈油 企业及采矿公司征收的潜在罚款总额，高达 85 亿美元，或将对棕榈油生产造成影响。 2.B50生柴增量较小。印尼已启动含50%棕榈油成分的生物柴油（B50）道路测试工作，预计整个测试周期可能为六至八个月。 B50生物柴油的强 ...

行情回顾 油脂周度行情观察 陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 棕榈油方面：马来产量下降，出口疲弱，库存仍有增加预期。由于东南亚地区将于增加，减产预期兑现，印尼GAPKI表示， 苏门答腊岛洪水尚未对棕榈油生产造成重大影响。MPOA显示11月1-30日马来西亚棕榈油产量预估环比减少4.38%。出口方面， ITS数据显示马来西亚11月棕榈油出口量预计为1316455吨，环比下降19.7%。AmSpec数据显示马来西亚11月1-30日棕榈油出 口量为1263298吨，环比减少15.89%。SGS预计马来西亚11月1-30日棕榈油出口量为779392吨，环比减少39.21%。因出口下降， 同时当月产量创下纪录，马来西亚11月棕榈油库存可能升至六年半高位。库存压力仍存，棕榈油价格承压。 由于全球价格上涨和卢比贬值，本地豆油价格比进口成本更低，贸易商称印度炼油商已取消约7万吨原定于12月至1月交付的 豆油订单。棕榈油有恢复采购预期，棕榈油震荡上行。 豆油方面：中国进口美豆速度放缓，主要由于美豆价格高于巴西大豆。周五美对华销售46.2万吨大豆，1 ...

油脂周度行情观察 陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 供应 需求 棕榈油：据Mysteel数据，截至11月21日，本周全国重点油厂24度棕榈油成交总量8000吨，环比增加4597吨。国内仍刚需为主。 豆油：截至11月21日，国内豆油成交量10.59万吨，环比减少2.73万吨。成交较平稳。 菜油：截至11月21日，沿海油厂菜油提货量为0.83万吨，环比增加0.31万吨。 库存 棕榈油：截至11月21日，全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存66.71万吨，环比上周增加1.39万吨，涨幅2.13%。 1.产地产量增加，马棕出口疲弱。SPPOMA预估11月1-15日马棕单产环比上月同期上涨1.82%，出油率环比上月同期上涨0.43%， 产量环比上月同期上涨4.09%。出口方面，船运机构数据显示马棕出口环比下降14.1%-20.5%。印尼方面，印尼棕榈油协会 （GAPKI）表示，2026年印尼毛棕榈油产量将同比增长3%-4%，今年增速介于3%-7%之间。估计2025年棕榈油产量将达到4961 万吨至5154万吨，高于2024年的4816万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The NOPA's monthly crushing report shows that the soybean oil inventory at the end of September dropped to 1.243 billion pounds, down 0.2% month - on - month, hitting a nine - month low, but up 16.6% year - on - year and higher than market expectations [2] - Indian vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from 1,677,346 tons in August, with palm oil imports dropping significantly from 990,528 tons in August to 829,017 tons [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed up. The US is working to ease trade tensions, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. The 10 - month USDA supply - demand report is postponed due to the government shutdown. The domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the upward movement of domestic meal prices [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil closed up. The MPOB report shows that September Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.7% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. In the short term, the oil market may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production - reduction season and biodiesel policies will support oil consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8252, 9322, and 9932 respectively, with changes of 12, - 8, and - 27 and percentage changes of 0.15%, - 0.09%, and - 3.15% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread changed from - 296 to - 320, and the M9 - 1 spread changed from - 85 to - 74 [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4350 ringgit/ton, 1007 cents/bu, 51 cents/lb, and 276 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 70, 1, 0, and 1 and percentage changes of - 1.58%, 0.07%, 0.51%, and 0.40% [1] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have changed. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8450 and 8540 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.12% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between different spot products have also changed. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 590 to - 560 [1] Import and Crushing Profit - **Profit Changes**: The import and crushing profits of various products have changed. For example, the profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil changed from - 417 to - 379 [1] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantity Changes**: The quantity of warehouse receipts for some products has changed. For example, the quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts changed from 25,444 to 26,294 [1]

油脂周报 | 2025-10-12 中美贸易摩擦再起，油脂行情或波动加大 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，本周收盘棕榈油2601合约9438元/吨，环比上涨210元，涨幅2.28%；本周收盘豆油2601合约8302元 /吨，环比上涨162元，涨幅1.99%；本周收盘菜油2601合约10161元/吨，环比上涨17元，涨幅0.17%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格9440元/吨，环比上涨360元，涨幅3.96%，现货基差P01+2，环比上涨150元；天津地 区一级豆油现货价格8520元/吨，环比上涨230元/吨，涨幅2.77%，现货基差Y01+218，环比上涨68元；江苏地 区四级菜油现货价格10330元/吨，环比上涨50元，涨幅0.49%，现货基差OI01+269，环比上涨33元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，10月10日(周五)，MPOB报告显示，马来西亚9月棕榈油产量184.12万吨，环比减少0.74%。近两周 （9.26-10.9）国内新增 8 条买船，其中 1 条 10 月，5 条 11 月，2 条 12 月；无新增洗船。截至 10 月 9 日当周连盘棕榈开盘大幅补涨，期价跟随马棕走势， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (August 25 - August 29), the domestic oil and fat futures prices declined overall, with the palm oil main contract dropping 2.8% and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil main contracts falling over 1%. Spot prices were under pressure. Palm oil may experience shock and correction; soybean oil will have short - term shock adjustment; rapeseed oil will have short - term shock [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: According to MPOA, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03%. SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, the operating rate was 68.18%, and the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, and the production decreased with the reduction of rapeseed crushing volume [5] Demand - Palm oil: As of August 29, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 7,864 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,298 tons, or 41.28%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 168,800 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.37%. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 19,450 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27 tons [5] Inventory - Palm oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, or 4.8%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65% [5] 2. Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the FOB price of 24 - degree Malaysian palm oil was $1,087.5 per ton; the import CIF price was $1,112 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $17 per ton; the import cost price was 9,479 yuan per ton; the hedging profit was - 103 yuan per ton [6] 3. Overseas Oil and Fat Information - Malaysian palm oil: From August 1 - 25, the export volume increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The Malaysian government is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the 5% sales and service tax. The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff, but no timetable has been set. - Brazilian biodiesel: Due to the increase in the blending ratio, the biodiesel demand in Brazil in 2025 has been adjusted from 9.6 million cubic meters to 9.9 million cubic meters, and then slightly adjusted down to 9.8 million cubic meters, still an 8.9% increase compared with 2024. - Canadian rapeseed: As of the week of August 17, the export volume decreased by 64.34% week - on - week to 90,800 tons. From August 1 - 17, 2025, the export volume was 355,900 tons, a 46.16% decrease compared with the same period last year. As of August 17, the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [8][9] 4. Market Review Palm oil - The SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. The export in August increased month - on - month. The US agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff. Indian festival stocking and Indonesian biodiesel policy support demand. On Friday, the weakening of international oil and fat and crude oil prices dragged down domestic oils and fats, leading to shock and correction [11] Soybean oil - The US EPA's exemption decision for small refineries caused the US soybean oil price to fall. Domestic oil mills maintained a high operating rate, with high - level production and increasing inventory pressure. However, the start of the school year and the Mid - Autumn Festival are expected to relieve the inventory pressure. China has not purchased US soybeans yet, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations. Short - term shock adjustment is expected [11] Rapeseed oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is expected to reduce imports. China is purchasing Australian new - crop rapeseed, which is expected to be shipped from November to December. Domestic rapeseed oil production is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, still under pressure. Attention should be paid to China - Canada relations, and short - term shock is expected [12] 5. Palm Oil Data Weekly Tracking Production and Inventory in Malaysia - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%, and the inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%, at a high level year - on - year [16] Exports in Malaysia - According to MPOB, the Malaysian palm oil export volume in July was 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%. SGS data showed that from August 1 - 20, the export volume was 667,278 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37.1%. From August 1 - 25, ITS and Amspec data showed a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and 16.4% respectively [19] Domestic Palm Oil Import and Inventory - In July 2025, the palm oil import volume was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48.57%, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 1.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. As of August 29, the domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, at a high level within the year [25][26] Domestic Palm Oil Consumption - In July, the domestic palm oil consumption was 207,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,600 tons [27] Import Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 24 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan per ton [22] 6. Soybean Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,500 tons, at a high level year - on - year. The commercial inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. In July, the export volume was 34,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons [31][32][33] 7. Rapeseed Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons, at a relatively low level year - on - year. The inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons, at a high level year - on - year [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of edible oils fluctuated after a sharp rise, driven by positive news. The domestic vegetable oil market has been rising alternately due to multiple factors such as raw material costs, biodiesel policies, and trade relations. The positive impact of raw material costs on edible oils is expected to continue, and the domestic edible oil market is expected to remain strong. However, after continuous price increases, there is significant upward pressure, and short - term sharp fluctuations are possible [8][31][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review and Important Information - **Futures Prices**: This week, the Y2601 soybean oil futures contract rose 1.74% to close at 8,534 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil futures contract rose 5.11% to close at 9,460 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil futures contract rose 2.05% to close at 9,757 yuan/ton [5][29]. - **Palm Oil**: According to the August Malaysian Palm Oil MPOB report, in July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; and the end - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The production and inventory data were lower than expected, and the report was positive, driving the Malaysian palm oil futures price up 5.27%. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026 [6][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: On August 12, after the market closed, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed in the form of a deposit. Starting from August 14, 2025, importers purchasing Canadian rapeseed through Canadian companies need to provide a deposit ratio of up to 75.8% to Chinese customs. The US soybean price rose 5.70% this week [7][30]. b. Spot Analysis - **Soybean Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [9]. - **Palm Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [12]. c. Other Data - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 1.308 million tons. On August 13, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 565,000 tons. As of August 14, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,735,500 tons [16][20]. - **Basis**: As of August 14, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years. The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [21][24].

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 6 月 10 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+50 （6 月），一菜 09+250（6 月）。华 东市场豆油基差价格：一豆：6 月上旬 09+280， ...

Report Information - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Affected by the decline of international crude oil and BMD palm oil during the May Day holiday, the domestic oils and fats sector was weak, with palm oil leading the decline. The high - frequency data from the Malaysian palm oil producing areas showed an expectation of increased production and inventory, which suppressed the market. The decline in crude oil made the future demand outlook for B40 unclear, causing the center of palm oil prices to shift down, and the soybean - palm oil price spread gradually returned to normal. The expected large volume of imported soybeans in the future may ease the tight supply of soybean oil, and the basis may decline later. Rapeseed oil was strongly affected by import policies, with a significant year - on - year decrease in future purchase forecasts, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and biodiesel [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: In the East China region, the price of first - grade soybean oil was y2509 + 280 from June to September; in the South China region, traders' quotes for rapeseed oil were third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 40 - 50. The basis quote in East China decreased, with the port price of 24 - degree palm oil at P09 + 580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil faced downward pressure due to expected increased production and inventory in Malaysia and unclear B40 demand. The soybean - palm oil price spread normalized. The supply of soybean oil was expected to ease, and the basis might decline. Rapeseed oil was strong due to import policy impacts [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 28.06% month - on - month, in Sabah by 24.07%, in Sarawak by 11.37%, and in East Malaysia by 20.76%. The Southern Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 61.58% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.59% month - on - month [8]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory Forecasts**: Reuters estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in April to be 1.62 million tons, imports 50,000 tons, exports 1.1 million tons, consumption 338,000 tons, and inventory 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [8]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: From April 1 to 25, 2025, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.95 million tons, higher than 9.42 million tons a week ago. The average daily soybean export volume so far in April was 762,052 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.1%. The average export price of soybeans so far in April was $389.8 per ton, an 8.9% decrease from the same period last year. ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in April 2025 would reach 13.847 million tons, 400,000 tons or 2.9% higher than the 13.452 million tons in April last year. In the first four months of this year, Brazil's soybean exports were 40.42 million tons, approaching half of last year's annual export volume of 97.3 million tons [8][9][15]. 3.3 Data Overview - **US Crop Planting Progress**: As of May 4, 2025, the soybean planting progress in the US was 30%, compared with 18% the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 23%. The corn planting progress was 40%, compared with 24% the previous week, 35% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 39% [15].