油脂周度行情观察 陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 棕榈油：节后棕榈油高开。马来西亚棕榈油处于季节性减产周期，2月1-20日产量环比下降，出口环比上月同期下降。美国 与印尼达成贸易协议，印尼棕榈油对美国出口预计将增至300万吨，支撑棕榈油需求。3月印尼或将提高出口税，对马棕出 口有所支撑。春节期间，受国际原油价格上涨带动，棕榈油价格上行。棕榈油自身基本面偏弱，印度斋月节备货需求下降， 马棕出口数据较疲弱压制棕榈油涨幅。国内2月买船增加，库存高企，需求偏弱，短期棕榈油震荡运行，关注美国生柴政策。 豆油：豆油震荡偏强。巴西大豆丰产预期，美国环境保护署将于周三向白宫提交新的生物燃料混合量授权提案，该规则可 能会在3月底前最终确定，生柴政策有乐观预期，支撑美豆油需求前景，同时中东地区地缘局势恶化，原油价格大幅上涨， 美豆油跟随走强。国内大豆进口处于低位，到港量下降，节后油厂开机逐渐恢复，库存小幅增加。关注美生柴政策，短期 豆油震荡运行。 菜油：菜油震荡运行。全球菜籽供应较宽松，国内方面，截至2月20日，国内菜籽库存增至9.8万吨 ...

油脂周度行情观察 陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 棕榈油：棕榈油延续下行。MPOB报告利多驱动较有限，产地马来西亚1月减产，出口增加，库存下降同比高位，关注去库速 度。印尼3月降上调出口税，对出口有所压制。印度节日前有备货需求，进口量大幅增长。国内库存累积，同比高位，需求 以刚需为主。节前市场交投谨慎，短期棕榈油震荡运行。 豆油：巴西大豆丰产预期，截至2月5日，2025/26年度巴西大豆收获进度为16%，2月收获加速，1月出口大幅增加。美国与 印度达成贸易协议，美豆油需求有增长预期。国内油厂开机率上升，同比高位，豆油产量增加，库存累积，供应较宽松， 临近节日，备货基本结束。美国发布45Z拟议规则，支撑豆油需求，关注美生柴政策。短期豆油震荡运行。 菜油：本周菜油震荡偏弱运行。全球菜籽供应较宽松，国内方面，截至2月6日，国内菜籽库存为4.8万吨，菜油产量继续增 加，菜油库存去化。澳菜籽入榨，短期菜油现实供应偏紧，需求较平淡。中加达成初步贸易协定，中国进口加菜籽，未来 菜籽供应有增加预期，对菜油价格有所压制。美国生柴政策消息 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - From December 22 - 26, the oils and fats sector fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The palm oil main 2605 contract rose 1.8%, the soybean oil main contract fell 0.8%, and the palm oil main contract rose 2%. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to improved supply - demand in Malaysia but weak domestic demand and inventory build - up. Soybean oil will also fluctuate in the short - term with limited drivers. Rapeseed oil prices are supported by tight supply and strong market hoarding sentiment, and the pressing situation of Australian rapeseeds should be monitored [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Malaysian palm oil fundamentals improved with a decline in production and an increase in exports in early December, but there is still inventory build - up pressure. SPPOMA showed a 7.15% month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production from December 1 - 20. AmSpec, SGS, and ITS had different data on palm oil exports during the same period. Malaysia lowered its January crude palm oil reference price and export tariff. Indonesia may impose up to $8.5 billion in fines on palm oil enterprises, which may affect production [4]. - The increase in B50 biodiesel volume is small. Indonesia has started B50 road tests, and the mandatory use policy is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026. The 2026 biodiesel quota is similar to 2025, and the market doubts Indonesia's ability to achieve the B50 target [5]. - There is an expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans. AgRural forecast Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons, and as of December 20, the sowing rate was 97.6% [5]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: There were no new purchases or cancellations of vessels from December 20 - 26, and domestic demand is weak with low procurement volume [11]. - Soybean oil: As of December 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 206.44 tons, the operating rate was 56.79% (down 1.82% month - on - month), and the soybean oil output was 39.22 tons (down 1.26 tons month - on - month). Domestic soybean supply is relatively abundant [11]. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 26, the output of coastal oil mills was 0 tons. Australian rapeseeds have not been crushed, and supply is tight [11]. Demand - Palm oil: As of December 26, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 1300 tons, a decrease of 7100 tons month - on - month, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs [8]. - Soybean oil: As of December 26, the weekly domestic soybean oil transaction volume was 12.15 tons, an increase of 4.92 tons month - on - month [8]. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 26, the pick - up volume of coastal oil mills was 0.1 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons month - on - month, and it remained at a low level year - on - year [8]. Inventory - Palm oil: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 73.41 tons, an increase of 3.41 tons month - on - month, a 4.87% increase [9]. - Soybean oil: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 108.9 tons, a decrease of 3.45 tons month - on - month, a 3.07% decrease, but inventory pressure still exists [9]. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 28.5 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons month - on - month, a 5.94% decrease, and inventory continued to decline [9]. Cost and Profit - As of December 26, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1065/ton, and the import cost was 8928 yuan/ton, an increase of 337 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: It rebounded due to improved supply - demand in Malaysia, but domestic inventory continued to build up and demand was weak, so it will fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Soybean oil: There is uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy, domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly but remained high, and inventory pressure still exists, so it will fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Rapeseed oil: Global rapeseed supply is sufficient, but domestic rapeseed inventory is 0 tons, oil mills are shut down, supply is tight, and market hoarding sentiment is strong, so it is necessary to monitor the pressing situation of Australian rapeseeds [13]. 4. Spot Prices - As of December 26, the spot price of Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil was 8360 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8510 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong was 9690 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton month - on - month [15]. 5. Malaysian Palm Oil Data - Production in November 2025 was 193.55 tons, a 5.30% month - on - month decrease, and the decrease in the Malay Peninsula was the most obvious [17]. - Inventory in November was 283.54 tons, a 13.04% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level year - on - year [18]. - Exports in November were 121.2 tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease, mainly due to the expected decrease in Indonesia's December export tariff [19]. - Domestic consumption in Malaysia in November was 41.8 tons, a 71.76% month - on - month increase [20]. 6. Indian Palm Oil Data - In November, India imported 63.23 tons of palm oil, an increase of 3 tons month - on - month, and it was at a low level year - on - year [23]. 7. Domestic Palm Oil Data - As of December 26, the commercial inventory was 73.41 tons, a 4.87% increase. In November, the import volume was 33 tons, an increase of 11 tons month - on - month [25]. - In November, the consumption was 33.92 tons, an increase of 11.1 tons month - on - month, and it was at a low level year - on - year [27]. - As of December 26, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton month - on - month [31]. 8. Domestic Soybean Oil Data - As of December 26, the operating rate of oil mills was 56.79%, the output was 39.22 tons (down 1.26 tons month - on - month), and it was still at a high level year - on - year. The inventory continued to decline but was still at a high level, and supply pressure still exists [33][34]. 9. Domestic Rapeseed Oil Data - As of December 26, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the operating rate of pressing plants was 0%, the rapeseed pressing volume was 0 tons, and the output of coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The inventory was 28.5 tons (down 1.8 tons month - on - month), and inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the pressing of Australian rapeseeds [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (December 1st - 5th), the oil and fat sector showed a divergent trend. Palm oil and soybean oil rebounded in a volatile manner, while rapeseed oil trended weakly in a volatile way. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to supply - demand pressure; soybean oil will also fluctuate in the short - term with uncertainties; rapeseed oil will trend weakly in the short - term, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed may relieve the supply shortage [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil production decreased, with MPOA showing a 4.38% month - on - month decrease in production from November 1st - 30th. Export was weak, with ITS data showing a 19.7% month - on - month decline in November exports, AmSpec showing a 15.89% decrease, and SGS showing a 39.21% decrease. November inventory may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high. Indian refiners cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders, and there is an expectation of resuming palm oil procurement, causing palm oil to rise in a volatile manner [4] Soybean Oil - China's import of US soybeans slowed down as US soybean prices are higher than Brazilian soybeans. As of Friday, 462,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China, and the confirmed sales since the end of October reached 2.7 million tons, accounting for 22.5% of the 12 million - ton procurement target. The US EIA indicated that the use of soybean oil for biofuel production in September 2025 was 1.053 billion pounds, higher than that in August, strengthening the market's expectation of continuous increase in future soybean oil use [4] 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: This week, 4 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, with all ship dates spanning from December to January, and no new cancellations. Due to mainly rigid domestic demand, the palm oil purchase volume is low. - Soybean oil: As of December 5th, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 205.58 tons, with an operating rate of 56.55%, a 6.59% month - on - month decrease but still at a high level. The soybean oil production was 390,000 tons, a 27,500 - ton month - on - month decrease. The domestic soybean port inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 5th, the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. Pay attention to the crushing situation in December after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] Demand - Palm oil: As of December 5th, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 700 tons, a 7,900 - ton month - on - month decrease, with mainly rigid domestic demand. - Soybean oil: As of December 5th, the weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 136,900 tons, a 61,500 - ton month - on - month increase, but the demand is still weak. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 5th, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 220 tons, a 10 - ton month - on - month decrease, and it is at a low level compared to the same period [7] Inventory - Palm oil: As of December 5th, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 30,200 - ton month - on - month increase, a 4.62% increase. - Soybean oil: As of December 5th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.163 million tons, a 15,800 - ton month - on - month decrease, a 1.34% decrease, but the inventory still has pressure. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 347,000 tons, a 18,200 - ton month - on - month decrease, a 4.98% decrease. The rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, and the supply is tight [8] Cost and Profit - As of December 5th, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1,049/ton; the import cost price was 8,864 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease [9] 3. Conclusion Palm Oil - Recently, the precipitation in Southeast Asia has increased, and Malaysia and Indonesia have experienced floods. Malaysian palm oil production has decreased, but Indonesia said the floods have not had a significant impact on production. Exports are weak, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation. Indonesia has lowered the export tariff in December to increase competitiveness. Pay attention to the MPOB report. It will fluctuate in the short - term [12] Soybean Oil - China's procurement of US soybeans has slowed down. Domestically, the soybean arrival volume has increased significantly, the soybean supply is loose, the oil mill operating rate has decreased but is still at a high level, the soybean crushing volume is still high, the soybean oil production has decreased month - on - month, the soybean oil inventory has decreased but still has pressure, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the domestic inventory reduction rhythm, and the US biodiesel policy is still uncertain. It will fluctuate in the short - term [12] Rapeseed Oil - China still maintains the anti - dumping policy against Canada, and the China - Canada relationship has not progressed. The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, the oil mills are shut down, the rapeseed oil production is 0, and the inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals of rapeseed oil have changed little. The arrival of Australian rapeseeds may relieve the tight supply of rapeseed oil. Pay attention to the crushing of Australian rapeseeds. It will trend weakly in a volatile way in the short - term [12] 4. Spot Prices - As of December 5th, the spot price of Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil was 8,570 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,740 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase. - The spot price of Nantong Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9,870 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease [14] 5. Malaysian Palm Oil Data Production - In October 2025, affected by the increase in working days and favorable weather, the Malaysian palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula was 1.1171 million tons, a 6.56% month - on - month increase; the production in Sarawak was 481,200 tons, a 14.65% month - on - month increase; the production in Sabah was 445,600 tons, a 19.50% month - on - month increase [16] Inventory - In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it is at a high level compared to the same period [17] Export - In October, the Malaysian palm oil export volume was 1.6929 million tons, an 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] Consumption - The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 6. Indian Palm Oil Import - In October, India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil, a 226,600 - ton month - on - month decrease, a 27% decrease, and it is at a low level compared to the same period [24] 7. Domestic Palm Oil Data Import and Inventory - As of December 5th, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 30,200 - ton month - on - month increase, a 4.62% increase. In October, the domestic palm oil import volume was 220,000 tons, a 70,000 - ton month - on - month increase, and the import volume rebounded [27] Consumption - In October, the palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a 23,200 - ton month - on - month decrease, and it is at a low level compared to the same period [30] Import Profit - As of December 5th, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 66 yuan/ton, a 143 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase [33] 8. Domestic Soybean Oil Data - As of December 5th, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 56.55%, the soybean oil production was 390,000 tons, a 27,500 - ton month - on - month decrease, and it is still at a high level compared to the same period. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.163 million tons, a 15,800 - ton month - on - month decrease, but the inventory still has pressure [35][36] 9. Domestic Rapeseed Oil Data - As of December 5th, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 347,000 tons, a 18,200 - ton month - on - month decrease, the inventory continued to decline, and it is at a low level compared to the same period. The first shipment of Australian rapeseeds has arrived. Pay attention to the customs clearance and subsequent crushing of Australian rapeseeds [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (November 17 - 21), the oil and fat sector declined, but there were differences among varieties. Palm oil led the decline, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant to decline [12]. - Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short - term and fluctuate; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Malaysian palm production increased, with SPPOMA estimating a 4.09% month - on - month increase in production for November 1 - 15, while exports decreased by 14.1% - 20.5%. Indonesia's palm oil production is estimated to increase, with exports up 6% - 7% this year and domestic consumption up 4.5% [4]. - Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy led to a decline in US soybean oil prices, putting pressure on the oil and fat market [4]. - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased, with a 35.67% week - on - week drop in exports as of November 9. China's rapeseed oil imports in October decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [5]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Not elaborated further beyond the market review section Demand - As of November 21, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil at key domestic oil mills was 8000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4597 tons, with domestic demand mainly for essential use. - The domestic soybean oil transaction volume was 10.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73 tons, with relatively stable transactions. - The rapeseed oil pick - up volume at coastal oil mills was 0.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 tons [8]. Inventory - As of November 21, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons, or 2.13%. - The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons, or 2.73%, still under pressure. - The rapeseed oil inventory was 37.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.43 tons, or 10.52% [9]. Cost and Profit - As of November 21, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1027 per ton, the import cost was 8748 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan per ton, and the hedging profit for December shipments was - 122 yuan. There were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China from November 15 - 21. - As of November 21, the actual soybean crushing volume at oil mills was 233.44 tons, the operating rate was 64.22%, and the soybean oil production was 44.3536 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.88 tons. Domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. - As of November 21, the rapeseed oil production at coastal oil mills was 0 tons. Attention should be paid to the crushing situation in December after the arrival of Australian rapeseed [10]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: The fundamentals in Malaysia are still weak, with production increasing and exports weak. There is pressure to accumulate inventory in November. In Indonesia, production is expected to increase, and the B40 biodiesel policy supports demand. Domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [12]. - Soybean oil: The domestic soybean supply is abundant, the oil mill operating rate has risen, production has increased, inventory is under pressure, demand is weak, and cost - side support has weakened. There is uncertainty in US biodiesel policy, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12]. - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada. Domestic rapeseed inventory is low, oil mills are shut down, production is 0, and inventory is decreasing. Supply is tight, and Australian rapeseed is arriving in November and December. Although affected by the overall oil and fat market, its own supply - demand structure provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12]. 4. Spot Prices - As of November 21, the spot price of Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil was 8440 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan per ton. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8470 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan per ton. - The spot price of Nantong Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10160 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 130 yuan per ton [14]. 5. Malaysian Palm Oil Data Production - In October 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 204.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.02%, with significant growth in all regions [16]. Inventory - In October 2025, the inventory was 246 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.44%, at a high level compared to the same period [17]. Export - In October 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were 169.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.58% [20]. Consumption - In October 2025, domestic consumption in Malaysia was 28.24 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.58%, returning to the normal range [21]. 6. Indian Palm Oil Import - In October 2025, India imported 60.23 tons of palm oil, a month - on - month decrease of 22.66 tons, or 27%, at a low level compared to the same period [24]. 7. Domestic Palm Oil Data Import and Inventory - As of November 21, the domestic commercial inventory of palm oil was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons, or 2.13%. In October, the import volume was 22 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7 tons [27]. Consumption - In October 2025, domestic palm oil consumption was 22.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32 tons, at a low level compared to the same period [30]. Import Profit - As of November 21, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 63 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan per ton [33]. 8. Domestic Soybean Oil Data Production and Operating Rate - As of November 21, the oil mill operating rate was 64.22%, and the soybean oil production was 44.3536 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.88 tons, still at a high level compared to the same period [35]. Inventory - As of November 21, the commercial inventory of domestic soybean oil was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons, still under pressure [36]. 9. Domestic Rapeseed Oil Data Production - As of November 21, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, and the rapeseed oil production at coastal oil mills was 0 tons [38]. Inventory - As of November 21, the rapeseed oil inventory was 37.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.43 tons, with accelerated inventory reduction [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The NOPA's monthly crushing report shows that the soybean oil inventory at the end of September dropped to 1.243 billion pounds, down 0.2% month - on - month, hitting a nine - month low, but up 16.6% year - on - year and higher than market expectations [2] - Indian vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from 1,677,346 tons in August, with palm oil imports dropping significantly from 990,528 tons in August to 829,017 tons [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed up. The US is working to ease trade tensions, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. The 10 - month USDA supply - demand report is postponed due to the government shutdown. The domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the upward movement of domestic meal prices [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil closed up. The MPOB report shows that September Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.7% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. In the short term, the oil market may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production - reduction season and biodiesel policies will support oil consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8252, 9322, and 9932 respectively, with changes of 12, - 8, and - 27 and percentage changes of 0.15%, - 0.09%, and - 3.15% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread changed from - 296 to - 320, and the M9 - 1 spread changed from - 85 to - 74 [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4350 ringgit/ton, 1007 cents/bu, 51 cents/lb, and 276 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 70, 1, 0, and 1 and percentage changes of - 1.58%, 0.07%, 0.51%, and 0.40% [1] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have changed. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8450 and 8540 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.12% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between different spot products have also changed. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 590 to - 560 [1] Import and Crushing Profit - **Profit Changes**: The import and crushing profits of various products have changed. For example, the profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil changed from - 417 to - 379 [1] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantity Changes**: The quantity of warehouse receipts for some products has changed. For example, the quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts changed from 25,444 to 26,294 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the investment strategy of the oil and fat industry [11] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the market for oils and fats may experience increased volatility. This week, the prices of the three major oils and fats rose. However, each type of oil has different supply - demand situations and influencing factors, which will affect their future price trends [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract this week was 9,438 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan or 2.28%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,302 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 162 yuan or 1.99%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,161 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan or 0.17% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,440 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 360 yuan or 3.96%, with a spot basis of P01 + 2, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton or 2.77%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 218, a week - on - week increase of 68 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan or 0.49%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 269, a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan [1] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: The MPOB report on October 10 showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in September was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74%. In the past two weeks (September 26 - October 9), China added 8 new palm oil purchase ships, including 1 for October, 5 for November, and 2 for December, with no new cancellations [2] - Demand: As of the week of October 9, the opening price of domestic palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose sharply, following the trend of Malaysian palm oil. The inverted spread between domestic soybean oil and palm oil deepened, and spot traders were cautious and waited and watched. After the holiday, purchases were mainly for a small amount of rigid demand. According to Mysteel statistics, the trading volume of palm oil in key oil mills across the country this week was 650 tons, an increase of 550 tons or 550% compared with last week [2] - Inventory: As of October 9, 2025 (week 41), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 552,200 tons, unchanged from last week, and an increase of 46,300 tons or 9.16% compared with 505,860 tons last year [2] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: According to customs data, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans in August 2025, an increase of 609,000 tons compared with July and an increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11% compared with August 2024. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 73.312 million tons, an increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% year - on - year. Steel Union data shows that the expected arrival volume in September is 10.3 million tons, 9 million tons in October, and 7.5 million tons in November. The purchase of ships for September - October has basically been completed, with a purchase progress of 68% for November and 10.3% for December. The actual soybean oil production from soybean crushing in oil mills in week 40 (September 27 - October 3) was 333,600 tons, with an operating rate of 49.01%. It is expected that the operating rate of domestic oil mills will drop significantly in week 41 (October 4 - October 10), and the soybean oil production from soybean crushing in oil mills is expected to be 257,800 tons, with an operating rate of 37.88% [3] - Demand: During this statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 14,400 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 3,600 tons, a 76% decrease compared with the average daily trading volume last week [3] - Inventory: As of September 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2487 million tons, an increase of 12,800 tons or 1.04% compared with last week, and an increase of 92,900 tons or 8.04% year - on - year [3] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 3, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 20,000 tons, with little change from the previous period. Many oil mills stopped rapeseed crushing, and only a few enterprises were operating. Rapeseed inventory decreased, and with the implementation of the policy of levying temporary margins on imported Canadian rapeseed, domestic oil mills will basically stop production due to lack of seeds. The market is waiting for the progress of Australian rapeseed ship schedules. As of October 3, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 8,200 tons, unchanged from the previous period. As the rapeseed crushing volume decreases in the future, rapeseed oil production may decline significantly [4] - Demand: As of October 3, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous period. During the National Day holiday, the pick - up operation in oil mills was basically at a standstill, and it has basically returned to normal after the holiday [4] - Inventory: As of this week, the inventory of imported rapeseed across the country was 600 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with last week. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills this week was 76,700 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons compared with last week [5] Market Analysis - This week, the prices of the three major oils and fats rose. The suspension of the US government and the halt of relevant USDA reports added uncertainty to the market. However, there were many positive factors for oils and fats during the National Day holiday, such as Indonesia's plan to enforce the B50 program in the second half of 2026, the strike of Argentine oil mill workers, and the rumor of domestic soybean oil exports, which supported the oil and fat market. After the holiday, palm oil led the rise in oils and fats, but the price of rapeseed oil was suppressed in the short term due to the arrival of purchased ships and high inventory [6] - The increase in palm oil this week was greater than that of soybean oil, and the inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil widened. As of the close on October 10, the spread between the 01 contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,136, and the spread between the 01 contracts of rapeseed oil and palm oil was 623 [6] Outlook - Soybean oil: The US government entered a shutdown state on October 1. The USDA said it would suspend the release of all reports during the shutdown, including monthly oilseed crushing data, export sales reports, and the monthly supply - demand report originally scheduled for October 9. Reuters analysts expect the average soybean yield in the US in the 2025/26 season to be 53.2 bushels per acre, compared with the USDA's September estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre, and the estimated soybean production to be 4.271 billion bushels, compared with the USDA's September estimate of 4.301 billion bushels. In Brazil, continuous rainfall and good weather prospects have promoted rapid soybean sowing, laying a foundation for another bumper harvest this year. Argentine soybean crushing plant workers plan to strike this week due to salary issues. Currently, the arrival of soybeans is sufficient, and the crushing is expected to remain at a high level, resulting in sufficient soybean oil supply. Recently, there have been new export orders, which support the basis to some extent. The recent remarks by Trump have aggravated trade tensions, making the import of US soybeans more difficult, and the CBOT soybean price has dropped sharply. China will continue to rely on South American soybeans, and the high near - month premium in South America will keep the import cost high, providing a bottom - support for soybean oil [7] - Palm oil: Malaysia announced an increase in the reference price of crude palm oil for October at the end of September, and the export tariff rate remains at the maximum level of 10%. Indonesia announced that the reference price of crude palm oil in October is $963.61 per ton, higher than $954.71 per ton in September. The export tax remains at $124 per ton, and Indonesia also levies a 10% special tax on palm oil, which will continue to support the price. The MPOB September report on October 10 showed that production and exports met market expectations, but domestic consumption declined, resulting in an unexpected inventory build - up to 2.36 million tons, which is at a historically high level, and the report was overall bearish. After the release of the report, palm oil prices on both domestic and foreign markets corrected. Recently, Indonesia said it will implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel program from the second half of 2026, which will create an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil. Due to production bottlenecks, the implementation of B50 will lead to a tight supply of palm oil. Indonesia has also signed economic cooperation agreements with many countries to support palm oil trade, which is also positive for palm oil. After the holiday, domestic palm oil prices rose sharply, and the basis turned from negative to positive, quickly repairing the import profit of palm oil, leading to active domestic ship purchases. On October 9, 8 new purchase ships were added. As the increase in palm oil is greater than that of soybean oil, the inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil deepens, and palm oil demand remains rigid. Traders and downstream customers restocked a small amount after the holiday, and the sales pressure on the middle and upper reaches is relatively large. The recent tension in Sino - US trade relations has led to a sharp decline in crude oil and peripheral stock indexes, and short - term systematic risks may have a certain drag on palm oil, but after the market digests the short - term negative factors, palm oil still has a chance to rise as the producing areas are about to enter the production - reduction season [8] - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed harvest in the Canadian prairie region is nearly complete, and industry insiders believe that Canada's rapeseed production will be higher than the 20.03 million tons estimated by Statistics Canada last month. The report released by Statistics Canada in December shows that the production will reach or exceed 21 million tons. Due to the suspension of China's purchase of Canadian rapeseed, Canadian rapeseed exports are sluggish. As of October 5, the rapeseed export volume in the 2025/26 season was about 796,000 tons, compared with about 1.95 million tons in the same period last year. Affected by factors such as the supply pressure brought by the rapeseed harvest, the decline in CBOT soybeans, the decline in international crude oil futures, and the weak prices of European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, ICE rapeseed continues to operate weakly. As of the close on October 10, the closing price of the ICE rapeseed November contract was 607.4 Canadian dollars per ton. The contract structure with lower near - month prices and higher far - month prices also reflects the large supply pressure in the near - term for Canadian rapeseed. Recently, Ambassador Wang Di of China to Canada published an article in Canadian media, calling for the cancellation of unreasonable tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. The market expects a certain improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations. Coupled with the recent increase in the arrival of purchased rapeseed oil ships and the high inventory of rapeseed oil, it puts pressure on the rapeseed oil market. However, the almost exhausted rapeseed inventory in domestic oil mills and the shutdown due to lack of seeds provide some support for rapeseed oil [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (August 25 - August 29), the domestic oil and fat futures prices declined overall, with the palm oil main contract dropping 2.8% and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil main contracts falling over 1%. Spot prices were under pressure. Palm oil may experience shock and correction; soybean oil will have short - term shock adjustment; rapeseed oil will have short - term shock [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: According to MPOA, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03%. SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, the operating rate was 68.18%, and the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, and the production decreased with the reduction of rapeseed crushing volume [5] Demand - Palm oil: As of August 29, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 7,864 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,298 tons, or 41.28%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 168,800 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.37%. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 19,450 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27 tons [5] Inventory - Palm oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, or 4.8%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65% [5] 2. Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the FOB price of 24 - degree Malaysian palm oil was $1,087.5 per ton; the import CIF price was $1,112 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $17 per ton; the import cost price was 9,479 yuan per ton; the hedging profit was - 103 yuan per ton [6] 3. Overseas Oil and Fat Information - Malaysian palm oil: From August 1 - 25, the export volume increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The Malaysian government is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the 5% sales and service tax. The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff, but no timetable has been set. - Brazilian biodiesel: Due to the increase in the blending ratio, the biodiesel demand in Brazil in 2025 has been adjusted from 9.6 million cubic meters to 9.9 million cubic meters, and then slightly adjusted down to 9.8 million cubic meters, still an 8.9% increase compared with 2024. - Canadian rapeseed: As of the week of August 17, the export volume decreased by 64.34% week - on - week to 90,800 tons. From August 1 - 17, 2025, the export volume was 355,900 tons, a 46.16% decrease compared with the same period last year. As of August 17, the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [8][9] 4. Market Review Palm oil - The SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. The export in August increased month - on - month. The US agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff. Indian festival stocking and Indonesian biodiesel policy support demand. On Friday, the weakening of international oil and fat and crude oil prices dragged down domestic oils and fats, leading to shock and correction [11] Soybean oil - The US EPA's exemption decision for small refineries caused the US soybean oil price to fall. Domestic oil mills maintained a high operating rate, with high - level production and increasing inventory pressure. However, the start of the school year and the Mid - Autumn Festival are expected to relieve the inventory pressure. China has not purchased US soybeans yet, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations. Short - term shock adjustment is expected [11] Rapeseed oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is expected to reduce imports. China is purchasing Australian new - crop rapeseed, which is expected to be shipped from November to December. Domestic rapeseed oil production is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, still under pressure. Attention should be paid to China - Canada relations, and short - term shock is expected [12] 5. Palm Oil Data Weekly Tracking Production and Inventory in Malaysia - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%, and the inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%, at a high level year - on - year [16] Exports in Malaysia - According to MPOB, the Malaysian palm oil export volume in July was 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%. SGS data showed that from August 1 - 20, the export volume was 667,278 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37.1%. From August 1 - 25, ITS and Amspec data showed a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and 16.4% respectively [19] Domestic Palm Oil Import and Inventory - In July 2025, the palm oil import volume was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48.57%, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 1.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. As of August 29, the domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, at a high level within the year [25][26] Domestic Palm Oil Consumption - In July, the domestic palm oil consumption was 207,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,600 tons [27] Import Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 24 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan per ton [22] 6. Soybean Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,500 tons, at a high level year - on - year. The commercial inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. In July, the export volume was 34,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons [31][32][33] 7. Rapeseed Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons, at a relatively low level year - on - year. The inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons, at a high level year - on - year [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of edible oils fluctuated after a sharp rise, driven by positive news. The domestic vegetable oil market has been rising alternately due to multiple factors such as raw material costs, biodiesel policies, and trade relations. The positive impact of raw material costs on edible oils is expected to continue, and the domestic edible oil market is expected to remain strong. However, after continuous price increases, there is significant upward pressure, and short - term sharp fluctuations are possible [8][31][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review and Important Information - **Futures Prices**: This week, the Y2601 soybean oil futures contract rose 1.74% to close at 8,534 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil futures contract rose 5.11% to close at 9,460 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil futures contract rose 2.05% to close at 9,757 yuan/ton [5][29]. - **Palm Oil**: According to the August Malaysian Palm Oil MPOB report, in July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; and the end - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The production and inventory data were lower than expected, and the report was positive, driving the Malaysian palm oil futures price up 5.27%. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026 [6][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: On August 12, after the market closed, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed in the form of a deposit. Starting from August 14, 2025, importers purchasing Canadian rapeseed through Canadian companies need to provide a deposit ratio of up to 75.8% to Chinese customs. The US soybean price rose 5.70% this week [7][30]. b. Spot Analysis - **Soybean Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [9]. - **Palm Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [12]. c. Other Data - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 1.308 million tons. On August 13, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 565,000 tons. As of August 14, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,735,500 tons [16][20]. - **Basis**: As of August 14, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years. The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [21][24].

Report Overview - Report Date: June 10, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil and fat sector was boosted by external crude oil and US soybeans, showing a volatile and upward trend during the day [7]. - Palm oil maintained a volatile adjustment trend. Active domestic purchases and expected slow growth in port inventories suppressed the market performance. The market was waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report on Tuesday [7]. - The market expected Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of May to increase significantly, exceeding 2 million tons for the first time this year [7]. - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada restarted negotiations, there were few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis were strong, and the 9000 level had strong short - term support [7]. - Brazil's abundant soybean supply continued to pressure the market. Attention should be paid to recent soybean imports and crushing. An improved supply situation might bring pressure to soybean - based oils and fats [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 250 (June). East China market soybean oil basis prices: first - grade soybean oil, early June 09 + 280, June - July 09 + 260, June - September 09 + 270, October - January 01 + 330. East China 24 - degree palm oil: P09 + 450 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil and fat sector was affected by external factors. Palm oil was affected by domestic purchases and inventory expectations. Rapeseed oil was influenced by purchase volume and domestic spot conditions. Soybean - based oils and fats were under pressure from Brazilian supply [7]. 2. Industry News - **Palm Oil Production**: According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 3.53% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 1.9% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% month - on - month [8]. - **Palm Oil Exports**: Different shipping survey agencies released data on Malaysia's palm oil exports in May. SGS data showed an increase of 29.6% compared to April, ITS showed a 17.9% increase, and AmSpec showed a 13.2% increase. Exports to China increased by 62,700 tons compared to the previous month [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Price and Basis Charts**: The report presented charts of spot prices and basis changes of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes [10][12][15]. - **Spread and Exchange Rate Charts**: There were charts of palm oil spreads (P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1) and exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/MYR) [21][26][27]